SOPA - Internet as we know it about to be gone?

[dmarkwick 261]

Taken from Scott Adams' blog:

Warning: This blog is written for a rational audience that likes to have fun wrestling with unique or controversial points of view. It is written in a style that can easily be confused as advocacy or opinion. It is not intended to change anyone's beliefs or actions. If you quote from this post or link to it, which you are welcome to do, please take responsibility for whatever happens if you mismatch the audience and the content.

Done :)

Are you following the huge debate about the proposed legislation in the United States to stop online piracy? It's called SOPA, short for Stop Online Piracy Act.

I'm fascinated by the debate because it's an ideal example of how we humans make decisions in the face of complexity. The proposed legislation is simple enough in terms of its purpose: Reducing piracy on the Internet. But its unintended consequences are not knowable. Critics claim the law will be overused and result in punishing or killing defenseless and legitimate sites without due process. Those in favor of SOPA say it will only make the illegal foreign pirate sites inaccessible from the United States. Based on my limited understanding of the issue, I don't know who is right. Neither do you. The best we can do is to apply unscientific methods, i.e. fancy guessing, that we might label intuition or common sense to make us feel better. Let's see where that takes us.

Rule of Thumb

Thanks to Republicans, and Ron Paul in particular, the idea that more government is always bad has gained a larger following than ever. That's doubly so when we're dealing with the Wild West of the Internet. It's a simple rule of thumb: The more the government interferes, the worse off we are.

By that filter, the SOPA question boils down to this: What is worse - allowing legitimate businesses to be robbed of their intellectual property, or having the government try to stop it? There is so little trust in government that most people prefer being robbed over the alternative of having the government get involved and making things worse.

Bottom line: If you apply the "more government is bad" rule of thumb, SOPA is a bad idea.

Pattern Recognition

If you strip out the details of the SOPA debate, the form looks like this:

Opponent: That law will cause huge problems because (reason).

Supporter: If you hold that opinion, you must have read the law wrong.

And...

Opponent: The requirements of the law are totally impractical.

Supporter: Something like SOPA is already being done successfully in other countries.

Pattern recognition often gives you the wrong answer because coincidences can look like a pattern. On the other hand, if ten political ads from the same candidate fail the fact-checking filters, there's a high likelihood the eleventh won't be much better. So pattern recognition does have its place.

In my own life, I find that when people disagree with my opinions, they are more often than not disagreeing with a misinterpretation of my opinion, not my actual opinion. And when a law is being used successfully in one place, it raises the odds it can work in another place.

There's also a pattern that tells me I shouldn't put too much stock in claims that a proposed law will rob my freedom and destroy the economy. Every law robs citizens of one sort of freedom or another, and costs money too. And yet most laws are sensible and work just fine in the long run. On the other hand, stopping piracy feels a lot like Prohibition, and that didn't work out.

Speaking of the liquor analogy, bar owners are in an analogous situation under current laws. If a bar over-serves a customer, or serves minors, it can lose its license. And yet most bars inadvertently over-serve customers, and every bar has served minors that have good fake I.D.s. Here's an example where the government could easily over-apply the law, but it rarely happens. I owned two restaurants, and I would say the draconian laws were helpful in keeping the over-serving to a minimum, and the I.D. checking to a maximum. So there's precedent that makes me optimistic that reasonable humans wouldn't apply SOPA death sentences to web sites in cases of trivial copyright infringement. But you never know.

Bottom line: The supporters of SOPA have an argument structure I most often associate with the superior argument. That doesn't make them right. It's just an observation about the pattern of the argument when you strip out the content.

Expert Opinion

Lots of heavyweight corporations and organizations oppose SOPA. Some of the opponents are kidnap victims with guns to their temples (GoDaddy.com). Other supporters look like Stockholm Syndrome types. Still others have a financial interest in passively aiding and abetting the theft of intellectual property. Some have no credibility whatsoever, e.g. anyone in Congress. And it's hard to trust anyone with a balance sheet who claims to be fighting for my freedom.

Then there's the philosophical bias problem. Ron Paul and others would presumably forgo a million dollars of benefits if it required one extra dollar of government expense, or one extra law that reduces freedom. For some folks, it's the principle of the thing, and I respect that point of view. But are the anti-big-government people comparing the size of the benefits to the size of the costs, or are they simply rejecting anything that looks like a government overreach, complication, or interference?

Some big-name lawyers say SOPA will be a nightmare if implemented. But I'm guessing the law itself was crafted by lawyers, and presumably those lawyers have a different opinion.

And who came up with SOPA in the first place? Wasn't it a bunch of corporations who wouldn't mind pushing some costs on other people if it helps their profits?

Bottom line: Money and philosophical bias make all of the experts in this case unreliable.

Self-Interest Crossover

You would expect artists and content owners to support SOPA, and you would expect the people who would be caught in legal dragnets to oppose it. The interesting people are the crossovers: The parties who take the "wrong" side of the issue. And indeed, many creators do just that, publicly arguing against SOPA even though it is specifically aimed at protecting their financial interests. But at the risk of being unkind, a lot of people become artists because they aren't good at things like math and legal analysis. When I want an opinion on the Constitution, or economics, I rarely consult an artist.

Bottom line: The crossovers aren't persuasive.

My Self-Interest

I have one of the most widely stolen intellectual properties in the history of the world. Emotionally, I'm okay with that. It feels like a compliment. Financially, I have no idea if piracy has hurt me in any meaningful way. I made the decision years ago to make Dilbert available on the Internet, including the entire archive. To the surprise of most observers, sales of Dilbert to traditional newspapers continued to grow briskly.

Bottom line: As a creator, my bias is in favor of protecting intellectual property. But in my specific case, SOPA probably wouldn't have any impact on my life or income.

Verdict

I'm unbiased in the sense that SOPA probably wouldn't have any impact on me one way or another. And I'm not qualified to look at the language of the law and make judgments about its unintended consequences. When I look at the applicable rules of thumb, the pattern of the argument, and the expert opinions, I don't get a clear answer about SOPA. And when I don't have a clear answer, I default to the "do nothing" point of view. Therefore, I conditionally oppose SOPA, not because I know it will be bad, but because I can't predict its impact.

I reserve the right to flip-flop at any moment. Make your best arguments in the comment section and see if you can flip me.

[vilas 477]

seeing video posted by Topas and about "democracy"

what should be democracy ?

that "people" vote for something and will of majority wins

example - referendums in Swiss

what is "democracy" in countries like my ?

- you vote for politicians who BEFORE being elected say "A, B, C"

and after they sign law "X, Y, Z" and send police to beat people shouting "where is A, B, C"

is it democracy that governments sign international agreements which have 90% of opponents ?

when i was young and naive i believed in "army, nation, police" i thought that army defend country, i believed that police fight criminals, i believed that government takes care about taxpayers

now i know it all false

government is corrupted by big corporations, when interest is abroad (or other country do not want to follow corrupted will) they send army, when interest of corporation is internal, they sending police

this is how this all is done in many many countries

so if you will quote anyone, they will bar you ;]

BIS moderator - please delete option "quote" cause it is "against SOPA" :) ;) :) :)

sounds crazy ? according to SOPA not

i wonder how patent law will function

now "for good of humanity" medical patents lasts only some years

i cannot imagine prices of medicines if patents would be forever

how can we for example prove lie of politicians who said something one day (recorded by one TV station) and moth later he says oposite way (also recorded by tv station) without putting together those things on Youtube ?

in Poland we had such case:

one station wanted to prove lies to other tv station

they shown facts and material of this lying station

you know what happened ?

"those materials are i.p. and cannot be used"

how can you prove lie if you cannot "quote" ?

and ... those who wanted to prove lies - couldn't do it because orginal tv stations not allowed to use records ! so how can you prove anything if someone forbids you to use record ??? how ?

and movie from Youtube was deleted :(

it was clearly showing lies of 2 journalists from one "mainstream" station :/

people cannot watch it since then

thats why they are preparing it

not to protect musician, graphician

but to have possibility to disallow quote

all problems in history of mankind were always because of small very rich greed group

not because of majority of people

Edited January 20, 2012 by vilas

[metalcraze 290]

Look what happens to Megaupload now. While everyone was too bothered about SOPA which got shelved for a time being.

This is ridiculous.

[maturin 12]

What's more ridiculous is that dudes who post videos on YouTube with a copyright music don't get anything for this (like money) and in fact do a free advertising for that band.

Ha, well, then there's people like me who listen to music exclusively on youtube and never buy any CDs.

[walker 0]

Hi all

Megaupload are fighting it but they need our help:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-31001_3-57362609-261/megaupload-assembles-worldwide-criminal-defense/

If you live in New Zealand let your politicians know what you think about justice abandoning innocent until proven guilty for corporate influence.

Kind regards walker

[vilas 477]

wtf ?

america wants to arrest not-american citizens for piracy

f*** how can american gov. touch anyone except US citizens, world globe do not belong to one state and 5% of world population

this is sick

american law working outside borders of US :/

why the hell , when i was hunting one guy (debtor who owns me money) in NZ and AU they refused any help (one guy owns me ca. 40-50 000 Euro)

this sucks that FBI hunts people outside US borders

Edited January 20, 2012 by vilas

[maddogx 13]

wtf ?

america wants to arrest not-american citizens for piracy

f*** how can american gov. touch anyone except US citizens, world globe do not belong to one state and 5% of world population

this is sick

american law working outside borders of US :/

why the hell , when i was hunting one guy (debtor who owns me money) in NZ and AU they refused any help (one guy owns me ca. 40-50 000 Euro)

this sucks that FBI hunts people outside US borders

Two words: extradition treaty.

Poland has signed one too, btw.

[vilas 477]

but some Polish criminals are not given by US or Israel or NZ

examples ? some mafia bosses accused of killing policeman in Poland was not given by US (ca. 2007 it was famous case in PL, chief of Police was killed few years earlier and US refused to give "businessman" )

one guy who stole a lot of money and escaped to Israel is not given (afera Art-B) from early 90s

US or Israel do not allow to extradict their criminal citizens, while other have to do it ? :/

this all anti-piracy seems weird

instead of lowering prices, making wages higher, they fight Youtube

soon they will forbid quoting , later maybe even freeware

i PL windows box costs more than minimal wage

some people work for less monthly than windows costs ,

so to defeat piracy, company should make prices lower in poor countries

but it is opposite way, in Germany or US or UK you can buy it cheaper

even now you have problems when you want proove somebody lie using record from other TV station :/

if someone recorded something, than you cannot use it (one case in PL) although without record you cannot proove something :/ weird

i also use Youtube everyday, i cannot imagine it to be closed , it is against culture

such acts like SOPA are very dangerous

cause one day guys who make Youtube can be barred, another day maybe some addonmakers for using "photo of tank as background for texture", day after arma-news websites cause "they spread piracy"

Edited January 20, 2012 by vilas

[STALKERGB 6]

basis of the indictment if anyone wants a read:

In practice, the "vast majority" of users do not have any significant long term private storage capability. Continued storage is dependent upon regular downloads of the file occurring. Files not downloaded are rapidly removed in most cases, whereas popular downloaded files are retained.

Because a small proportion of users pay for storage, the business is dependent upon advertising. Adverts are primarily viewed when files are downloaded and the business model is therefore not based upon storage but upon maximizing downloads.

Persons indicted have "instructed individual users how to locate links to infringing content on the Mega Sites ... [and] ... have also shared with each other comments from Mega Site users demonstrating that they have used or are attempting to use the Mega Sites to get infringing copies of copyrighted content."

Persons indicted, unlike the public, are not reliant upon links to stored files, but can search the internal database directly. It is claimed they have "searched the internal database for their associates and themselves so that they may directly access copyright-infringing content".

A comprehensive takedown method is in use to identify child pornography, but not deployed to remove infringing content. (item 24)

Infringing users did not have their accounts terminated, and the defendants "made no significant effort to identify users who were using the Mega Sites or services to infringe copyrights, to prevent the uploading of infringing copies of copyrighted materials, or to identify infringing copies of copyrighted works" (item 55-56)

An incentivizing program was adopted encouraging the upload of "popular" files in return for payments to successful uploaders. (item 69e et al)

Defendants explicitly discussed evasion and infringement issues (69i-l)

[-martin- 10]

Well I always told everyone that what goes around comes around, back in the day the US government said that there is oppression in the Eastern Bloc, so now let them have oppression in their own country and we will see what they say.

Unfortunately, it’s us that are going to suffer for this as always.

But on the other side, if SOPA does come in to force open source software will grow, nobody will download illegal copies of Windows, instead people will download Linux, and open source software legally and for free. :smile:

[vilas 477]

or maybe our rulers wants people to not watch news on Youtube, not watch documentary movies, not know literature

to have STUPID people - such obey better !

someone who not watch independent news, different movies, different documents, books - such person do not know enough about world and culture,

so maybe all such acts are just to make people more morons

expensive not free education + bans on website sharing knowledge = and you will have stupid population

easy to steer, easy to buy any bullshit that mainstream or politician says

add to it ban on quoting (also i.p. if you use someones words, images, records) as i gave example of 2 tv stations , which one was trying to prove that anotherone lied

be blind, obey, work harder - is it our future ?

instead people will download Linux

i doubt

looking at reality and history i would foresee :

- they will ban freeware somehow (for example calling opensource dagnerous, afair there were attempts to stop freeware, do you remember it ? )

- they will rise prices of pay-ware threatening using police/court/jails "just buy another copy and give money to big corporation owner"

Edited January 20, 2012 by vilas

[batto 17]

This whole copyright thing is sooo retarded. Defenders talks about jobs. I don't really get it. 2 millions people work for music industry? And piracy means most of them will be fired? Well, I don't see the problem here. That's capitalism isn't it? This business model was their decision. Capitalism ... OK, Corporations making laws ... NOT OK.

[Nicholas 5]

I'll post this once again since most of you seemed to miss it.

Today, law enforcement also executed more than 20 search warrants in the United States and eight countries, seized approximately $50 million in assets and targeted sites where Megaupload has servers in Ashburn, Va., Washington, D.C., the Netherlands and Canada. In addition, the U.S. District Court in Alexandria, Va., ordered the seizure of 18 domain names associated with the alleged Mega conspiracy.

The only reason the US government was able to do anything, was because Megaupload had two servers within the US. If Megaupload did not have any servers in the US, they wouldn't be able to do anything. That's why the government wants SOPA and PIPA, so they can control sites like Megaupload, even if they do not have servers in the US.

[metalcraze 290]

Ha, well, then there's people like me who listen to music exclusively on youtube and never buy any CDs.

It isn't like anyone earns or loses money when a video is posted on YouTube, you may not buy CD either way - what's worse is that a publisher may have uploaded a music video himself, but won't allow other users do the same. What's the point? I can watch videos uploaded by the publisher and not buy CDs either. What's the difference? The cozy feeling of not having a butthurt for a greedy suit?

Edited January 20, 2012 by metalcraze

[topas 1]

be blind, obey, work harder - is it our future ?

And here comes Fritz Lang, saying: "I told you so.."

lsQ7wWCjHX0

So does Orwell

:D

[[GLT] Legislator 66]

wtf ?

america wants to arrest not-american citizens for piracy

f*** how can american gov. touch anyone except US citizens, world globe do not belong to one state and 5% of world population

this is sick

american law working outside borders of US :/

why the hell , when i was hunting one guy (debtor who owns me money) in NZ and AU they refused any help (one guy owns me ca. 40-50 000 Euro)

this sucks that FBI hunts people outside US borders

Well I'm not surprised. Anyone remembering El-Masri? He was no saint but the whole affair was really fishy.

[-martin- 10]

be blind, obey, work harder - is it our future ?

No Vilas, this is our present

---------- Post added at 05:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:49 PM ----------

Sopa and Pipa bills postponed in US Congress

The US Congress has halted debate on two contested anti-online piracy bills.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid delayed a vote on the Protect IP Act (Pipa) scheduled for Tuesday.

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Lamar Smith then said his panel would not consider the Stop Online Piracy Act (Sopa) until a compromise was reached.

The decisions follow protests by online encyclopaedia Wikipedia, and thousands of other websites, which went "dark" in protest for 24 hours earlier this week.

"In light of recent events, I have decided to postpone Tuesday's vote on the PROTECT IP Act," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, said in a statement on Friday.

Mr Smith, a Texas Republican in the House of Representatives, said in a statement: "I have heard from the critics and I take seriously their concerns regarding proposed legislation to address the problem of online piracy.

"It is clear that we need to revisit the approach on how best to address the problem of foreign thieves that steal and sell American inventions and products."

More at... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16655272

[-GR-Operative 10]

SOPA-supporters say that if you listen to music in the internet, never buying it, you are robbing the artists. I don't see it this way. YouTube created ALL the current bestselling artists out there. Without it, they would be nowhere near where they are now.

With filesharing, we are able to discover culture far away from our home. Even if we don't buy it, someone will. So, a no-profit deadend becomes a profitable horizon.

Now, several people are able to survive, let's say, making music. Sometime ago, they would never have such an oportunity: they could not reach so far, just making some shows and selling some CDs.

[Fox '09 14]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJsyxyWUW0s&feature=g-all-u&context=G29e1665FAAAAAAAAWAA

best explanation of SOPA imo

[ProfTournesol 956]

This case is part of efforts being undertaken by the Department of Justice Task Force on Intellectual Property (IP Task Force) to stop the theft of intellectual property.

Congratulations. A memorable sword strike into water :icon_ohmygod:

Edited January 20, 2012 by ProfTournesol

[STALKERGB 6]

SOPA/PIPA in it's current form is dead(ish).

Chairman Smith: “I have heard from the critics and I take seriously their concerns regarding proposed legislation to address the problem of online piracy. It is clear that we need to revisit the approach on how best to address the problem of foreign thieves that steal and sell American inventions and products.

“The problem of online piracy is too big to ignore. American intellectual property industries provide 19 million high-paying jobs and account for more than 60 percent of U.S. exports. The theft of America’s intellectual property costs the U.S. economy more than $100 billion annually and results in the loss of thousands of American jobs. Congress cannot stand by and do nothing while American innovators and job creators are under attack.

“The online theft of American intellectual property is no different than the theft of products from a store. It is illegal and the law should be enforced both in the store and online.

“The Committee will continue work with copyright owners, Internet companies, financial institutions to develop proposals that combat online piracy and protect America’s intellectual property. We welcome input from all organizations and individuals who have an honest difference of opinion about how best to address this widespread problem. The Committee remains committed to finding a solution to the problem of online piracy that protects American intellectual property and innovation.â€

The House Judiciary Committee will postpone consideration of the legislation until there is wider agreement on a solution.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Martin :p

[viper[cww] 14]

"It is clear that we need to revisit the approach on how best to address the problem of foreign thieves that steal and sell American inventions and products."

Cry me a river... :cool:

[-martin- 10]

The front line lies in silence , for now... Let's wait and see what happens after they regroup.

[STALKERGB 6]

"It is clear that we need to revisit the approach on how best to address the problem of foreign thieves that steal and sell American inventions and products."

@Viper, yeah that line caught my attention too, really makes it sound like "America against the World" kind of thing which is silly. Also half makes it sound like the US is the only place that has inventions and products worth stealing lol. Probably not what he meant but a strange sentence all the same.

[nodunit 397]

Operative;2093070']SOPA-supporters say that if you listen to music in the internet' date=' never buying it, you are robbing the artists. I don't see it this way. YouTube created ALL the current bestselling artists out there. Without it, they would be nowhere near where they are now.

With filesharing, we are able to discover culture far away from our home. Even if we don't buy it, someone will. So, a no-profit deadend becomes a profitable horizon.

Now, several people are able to survive, let's say, making music. Sometime ago, they would never have such an oportunity: they could not reach so far, just making some shows and selling some CDs.[/quote']

That's true, I can't tell you how many music CD's I bought of bands I had never heard of thanks to youtube, it comes double when the music is featured in a vide..curiosity perks, scrolling comments for source, acquire what intel there is, search for and find it, maybe listen to another and decide "Hey I like this!" and BAM, purchase. Any company that thinks they can save tons of revenue from 'piracy' by removing their content from the web is blind with greed, they'd practicly be killing free promoting and publicizing of their products that would ensure more money.

wtf ?

america wants to arrest not-american citizens for piracy

f*** how can american gov. touch anyone except US citizens, world globe do not belong to one state and 5% of world population

this is sick

Trust me we're under heat just as much as the rest of you, SOPA was originally planned as US net to filter and ban content from us, not you.

Problem is how many servers are in the US, google for example, which would allow them to also filter content outgoing. and even worse, though off topic, recently a bill was passed called the "National Defense Authorization Act", essentially homeland security 2.0.

This bill allows the arrest of any US citizen without due process, you are not given a trial, told why you are under arrest and they can break into your home at any time, for any reason be it to place wire taps, search what you have or arrest you. Good bye free speech, bill of rights, constution. They want to screw us as much as the rest of you. That said I agree that our laws should not pass beyond our borders regardless of product, do we follow Chinese laws when using their products?

At any rate I imagine this isn't over, and we should keep an eye out for similar bull that might pop up in other countries.

Edited January 20, 2012 by NodUnit