denoir 0 Posted June 9, 2004 While I don't think Croatia will win, I think they stand a better chance than several countries on the list. The got the bronze in France '98 world cup, so they should not be discounted. On the other hand AFIK they have a relatively inexperienced team right now as they've recently had a generation change. But we'll see. They're in the same group as France and England so it will probably be a tough one. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SpeedyDonkey 0 Posted June 9, 2004 While I don't think Croatia will win, I think they stand a better chance than several countries on the list. The got the bronze in France '98 world cup, so they should not be discounted. On the other hand AFIK they have a relatively inexperienced team right now as they've recently had a generation change. But we'll see. They're in the same group as France and England so it will probably be a tough one. Yes one of my best friends is from Croatian so we've naturally had lengthy discussions about Croatia’s fait in the tournament. We came to the conclusion that (Just like you said) they were going though a generation change with a mix of new, inexperienced players and couple of old ones (30+) in the current team. What they do have is a couple of potential goal scorers (Robert Kovac and Marko Babic) and good team morale. That could be enough to beat England, and get that second place in the group. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
raedor 8 Posted June 9, 2004 it's a bit too early for croatia right now. they'd need much luck. when they can develop as fast as they did in the last time they'll have some good chances for 2006 or at least for 2008. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Frenchman 0 Posted June 9, 2004 France, of course! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gadger 0 Posted June 9, 2004 Sure it can. For example if one team has lost 100 games in a row without scoring a goal then the probability is quite high that they will lose in the 101th game Naaaah, everything's possible in sports... In the end it's always a good team that wins but a lot of the underdogs can get pretty far too... Of course it's possible, but it's not probable. With a proper analysis you can extract patterns and trends. There is of course no way of exactly predicting the outcome of every game, but with a good data set and a good model, you should be able to predict the outcomes a bit better than flipping a coin. Hi Denoir, What you have to remember is that the patterns and trends of qualifying and friendlies cannot really be taken into account when predicting the victor of a major championship. For example thousands of variables, from the major; such as host nation, climate, support base, players fit/active, to the minor; how other teams play, reffere decisions, etc etc, all have a part to play if you want to make it more likely to predict the eventual winner, and even then random chaos will make a hash of whoever you bet on. Nobody wins in gambling apart from the lucky-ignorant and the house. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
denoir 0 Posted June 10, 2004 Absolutely, that's why huge data sets are needed and the really tricky part is identifying the relevant parameters (you can use sensitivity analysis for that if you get a good model). For the model typically a neural network could be used for classification an prediction. Here is a similar project somebody did on American Football: Neural Network Prediction of NFL Football Games The problem is not trivial however as both static as well as temporal patterns are relevant (the people in the link above only looked at static patterns). Also proper data collection and formatting would be a pain. In short a lot of work which I don't have time to do. It would have been fun to try it though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gadger 0 Posted June 10, 2004 Yep indeed, but I think there is money to be made in spread betting, i.e. making a bet on how many goals will be scored during the tournament or how many bookings, as this set of data fluxtuates little between tournament to tournament, but of course, you will make far less than correctly predicting the winner. All in all you probably just have as much probability of striking lucky by betting for your home nation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Albert Schweitzer 10 Posted June 10, 2004 Come on people. This is not a patritotic poll! How the hell is england supposed to win the cup. I love your optimism but please look at the list of references. How often in recent football history did england realy win a cup? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ex-RoNiN 0 Posted June 10, 2004 Come on people. This is not a patritotic poll! How the hell is england supposed to win the cup. I love your optimism but please look at the list of references. How often in recent football history did england realy win a cup? Â Why is it that German pundits and supporters keep talking about history History means sod all in football, the only thing that counts is your current form Annoys the hell outta me Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
denoir 0 Posted June 10, 2004 Come on people. This is not a patritotic poll! How the hell is england supposed to win the cup. I love your optimism but please look at the list of references. How often in recent football history did england realy win a cup? Â Yeppp, England is always overestimated. They are each and every time mentioned as a likely winner but never end up materializing it. Last time they won a WC was in 1966. I suppose that it comes from the fact that they have a fairly good league and some good key players. On a national team level it doesn't seem to click however. I voted for Sweden btw (In reality I would probably guess on Italy or France). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bordoy 0 Posted June 10, 2004 I voted for Spain. I hope England win, if not Spain. But if both get knocked then i'm goin for the Czech's. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IsthatyouJohnWayne 0 Posted June 10, 2004 Well regarding England we only have to wait until Saturday to find out. England V France. Its going to be a big match (there are flags everywhere now), still i suppose it could always be a disappointing 1-1 draw. Nah i doubt that... We did do pretty well in the World Cup (going out to Brazil isnt a great shame) but then all the teams have changed somewhat since then. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Winters 1 Posted June 10, 2004 What no Ireland??? But they are a bastion of football powerhouses Go Deustchland!!! Oh and here in the US you can see the games on ESPN2 but you will prolly need to set your VCR to watch them Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gadger 0 Posted June 10, 2004 What no Ireland???  But they are a bastion of football powerhouses Go Deustchland!!!  Oh and here in the US you can see the games on ESPN2 but you will prolly need to set your VCR to watch them  The games either start at 12pm EST or 14:45EST, great for boring weekend days Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Albert Schweitzer 10 Posted June 10, 2004 Well regarding England we only have to wait until Saturday to find out. England V France. Its going to be a big match (there are flags everywhere now), still i suppose it could always be a disappointing 1-1 draw. Nah i doubt that...We did do pretty well in the World Cup (going out to Brazil isnt a great shame) but then all the teams have changed somewhat since then. Well, seriously I believe that England has a fair chance to win. They are always pretty strong during the first rounds, actually unbeatable, but when it comes to the finals, well then they loose (except against germany  ). Last Uefa Euro I had the luck to enjoy this game with some british collegues, we realy had a great time.  My bet goes for Italy! Ronnin, it is not the past that counts, precisely. But unfortunately the english football is a football of the past. While germany already started the terribly hurtful change of style you guys didnt bother yet. English football is great to watch but why is that? Because the style is still simillar to that of the 80ies and that was the time football was great to watch. But nowadays. Nowadays you cant count on luck since the defense has become much more sophisticated. The great strikers and a bit luck doesnt help anymore. Nowadys you need a tight man-defense and at the same time a quick squad of strikers that can take long shots and advance quicker than the enemy mid-field can retreat. But you build up big heavy and slow attack-lines. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ex-RoNiN 0 Posted June 10, 2004 Ronnin, it is not the past that counts, precisely. But unfortunately the english football is a football of the past. While germany already started the terribly hurtful change of style you guys didnt bother yet. English football is great to watch but why is that? Because the style is still simillar to that of the 80ies and that was the time football was great to watch. But nowadays. Nowadays you cant count on luck since the defense has become much more sophisticated. The great strikers and a bit luck doesnt help anymore. Nowadys you need a tight man-defense and at the same time a quick squad of strikers that can take long shots and advance quicker than the enemy mid-field can retreat. But you build up big heavy and slow attack-lines. Mate, you are talking utter rubbish English football hasn't been kick and rush since the 80s anymore. English football nowadays is, whilst nowhere near as tactical as Italian footballl, fairly sophisticated, with quick one-touch passing style used by most of the bigger teams, whilst the lesser team that do not have these technical abilities can fight this with physically tough play and 100% dedication. England's strikers are amongst the quickest, and strikers like Wayne Rooney or Heskey can easily shoot from outside the box. Have you bothered watching Arsenal or Chelsea in the Champions League? Seems to me you are either talking about Greek or German football Incidentally, German football is utter rubbish IMO. Too slow, no dedication, too much attention for off the pitch matters, and this ridiculous idea that German football is "good". It is not. In the past 5 years, how many Germans are holding themselves up in better leagues? So, English football is better because: its faster, its more physical, players are dedicated, the attacking style is more thought out, and the English defenders are more versatile and better at tackling. Give me the Premiereship any day. As for the national team, you are correct. England sux on international level, and I have no idea why. The potential is there though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
denoir 0 Posted June 10, 2004 I agree with Albert. English football is still (and that's what makes it fun to watch!) very physical. Fast rushes, long passes and attack attack attack. The problem is that it doesn't work all that well any more as the defence systems of today are good at stopping such attacks. German football on the other hand has more a mechanical flavour. What I like about the Germans is that they go on, they don't give up. Even when they are losing badly they still put up a good game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Albert Schweitzer 10 Posted June 10, 2004 We agree to disagree! Â Quote[/b] ]In the past 5 years, how many Germans are holding themselves up in better leagues ?? What? Make a comparison so i can judge. Quote[/b] ]German football is rubbish I did not quote the opposite. Get me right, I stated right away that my comment is not about patriotic feelings but pure observations. No need to defend german football here. I think the results in competitions speak for themselves. But still they are far away from what they were in the past. But lets wait and see. I think you will be surprised about the match against france. England has a fair chance but if the french have rested well and are in good shape then you will see that the famous british steam-train of strickers will have reached the french goal before having realised that the ball has already been taken away from them. Like a knight fighting a Samurai. (germany against Brasil = Engineer vs Samba Dancer) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ex-RoNiN 0 Posted June 10, 2004 I agree with Albert. English football is still (and that's what makes it fun to watch!) very physical. Fast rushes, long passes and attack attack attack. The problem is that it doesn't work all that well any more as the defence systems of today are good at stopping such attacks.German football on the other hand has more a mechanical flavour. What I like about the Germans is that they go on, they don't give up. Even when they are losing badly they still put up a good game. You err, English football matches are some of the closest I have ever seen. Only in England can a team that is 3-0 down at half time turn around and win the match 5-4. You would never ever see this in the Bundesliga. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Albert Schweitzer 10 Posted June 10, 2004 I agree with Albert. English football is still (and that's what makes it fun to watch!) very physical. Fast rushes, long passes and attack attack attack. The problem is that it doesn't work all that well any more as the defence systems of today are good at stopping such attacks.German football on the other hand has more a mechanical flavour. What I like about the Germans is that they go on, they don't give up. Even when they are losing badly they still put up a good game. You err, English football matches are some of the closest I have ever seen. Only in England can a team that is 3-0 down at half time turn around and win the match 5-4. You would never ever see this in the Bundesliga. No, but watch the WorldCup games of the eighties and you see exactly THAT. football turned more boring but it also advanced! Shame or luck? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IsthatyouJohnWayne 0 Posted June 10, 2004 Yes looking at it dispassionatly England will probably draw or lose to France, France are odds on favourites to win the final (last time i checked) but at least England have a decent chance against them at the moment (on paper looking pretty strong). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
raedor 8 Posted June 10, 2004 i agree with everyone who's saying that german football is very boring: it is. nearly no talent, but 100% fight. those 100% only in important games or tournaments. that's it. nothing more. the most attractive football you'll see this year is in french or czech games... just watch 1-2 games of arsenal! henry is great. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
-33ker 0 Posted June 10, 2004 Vive le France! Vive la France! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
raedor 8 Posted June 10, 2004 Vive le France! Vive la France! viva l'italia Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
