UK leaves Europe

[simon1279 52]

Main problem of all of this story and most of the countries around the world are politicians, they're just looking for votes and most of the times citizens are paying the bill for this reason

[IndeedPete 1038]

Nah, it's just that we have been doing that too fast.

By the way, where have you been? :)

 

That's what I meant, it will take decades if not centuries (of peace?) to achieve such society . So, at the moment all that European values and ideals talk is plain bullshit. For example, Greece was (and still is) in the EU and part of our glorious community, held together by our strong and totally unique European values. And we still fucked them over when we had the chance. Anyone remembers Germany's generous few billion € deal with Greece, using money borrowed from the ECB? And we added just, what, 3-5% interest? I mean, we have costs and what's the harm in screwing over a fellow European friend by just 300 million a year? :D

 

I fear this might happen to Britain as well if their economy takes that hit everyone expects it to. That the EU uses that leverage and strikes some good deals for us, but not for Britain. And if international companies really retract capital from the country, it will harm the working class the most - which ironically seem to be the ones that mostly voted for leave. A couple of hours ago, I read that some banks already put plans in motion to re-locate staff and money to other countries. As usual, they haven't commented on that news yet, maybe it's bullshit. The UK was always one of, if not, the biggest finance centre in Europe. Probably not long until they shift to Paris or Frankfurt which means again less capital going through Britain. I honestly don't get how someone could be that naive to vote for leave. Even if you truly hate the EU, it makes no sense. But time will tell. I hope it goes well for the Brits after all.

 

Well, I was out of off topic for a while. This here got me to crawl out of my cave. But I'm not particularly keen on starting any discussions. That takes too much time I don't have at the moment.^^ And I've said my bit already: leave was a terrible idea, EU still needs major reforming.

[Jona33 51]

So to sum it all up for anyone who's confused.

 

-Both campaigns lied their asses off (the leave side with numerous demonstrably false claims, not least the £350 million, while the French haven't invaded so the remain side was also lying)*

-Everyone now hates half the country for reasons they don't fully understand (it's now very unfashionable to believe experts)

-The pound is now so weak an email from a Nigerian prince is now worth more than winning Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.**

 

*Insert some joke about them leaving when confronted by an old man with a walking stick, that'll never change.

**For the internet economists, I'm aware the pound has recovered somewhat. It's a joke. Just to be clear.

 

Obviously the above is my light hearted take on it. I'm not thrilled about the prospect of leaving the EU but that's the vote so we'll have to deal with it. More worrying is the state of politics at home. When the least objectionable replacement for Cameron (who's actually in the running) is Theresa May it's bad. Even if a general election is called there's the awful choice of the conservatives, I would be massively surprised if the Labour party could be considered electable. I like Corbyn's manner and principles, just not his policies.  The lib dems were wiped out last year and I would be surprised if they managed a resurgence. (ask somebody on the street who leads them, I wouldn't bet on many people bringing the name to mind) Then there's UKIP who have now achieved their solitary aim, are a bit redundant and have always performed poorly at General elections. 

 

However I always look on the bright side of life. Every time we have a referendum on Europe our cricket team win the next match (it's happened a whole two times now, so we just need to hold a referendum next time we need an Ashes win)

 

EDIT: @Pete, in response to "how could anyone be so naive to vote for leave"-politics is odd in this country. Rationality is routinely hard to come by, for gods sake people were accusing the vote of being rigged because they were given pencils to mark their ballot papers with (presumably Cameron hired an army of dwarves with a thousand rubbers apiece to hide in the ballot boxes and change people's votes). One of the leading figures in the leave campaign said that the public has "had enough of experts"-because the concept of listening to professionals with much less in the way of vested interests than the politicians is now bizarre. The EU just became the target, every problem can apparently be chalked up to the EU (also doesn't have to be a real problem-made up is fine). Both sides have bullshitted their way but the leave camp were more convincing. To be honest, I hope it goes well for us as well because I'd rather be proved wrong and not be living in a sinking ship. I'm gonna be surprised if it happens though.

[-dead- 1]

I think, it will take some time, like a year or few, before UK (with or without Scotland) actually (legally) leave EU (not Europe, unless we're talking about tectonic movemements). People expressed they will, but it has no any legal force by itself, AFAIK ATM is still 100% UE member with all consequences of that fact. 

They have 2 years maximum, but whilst the Divided Kingdom would benefit from a prolonged exit, it's in the EU's interest to make the divorce as quick and unpleasant for the DK as possible, so I'd expect it to take a lot less than that. I suspect there's not much the DK can do about the timetable now that it has lost all clout in the EU.

[vilas 477]

Main problem of all of this story and most of the countries around the world are politicians, they're just looking for votes and most of the times citizens are paying the bill for this reason

 

 

looking at EU politicians i think they rather do it for some bribes paid abroad (ACTA, TTIP, islamization, gun bans, low sentences, corporations taxing issues etc. etc etc) rather they are doing thigs cause someone paid them for it despite what voters want , majority of voters want high punishment for criminals, self defence , sustain tradition , safety streets, no supervision, low taxes, business fair play etc. 

look at what politicians do vs what people who voted wanted (voters), politicians promise A, do B 

[archbishop lazarus 24]

I think this is a most fortunate event. Brits voted for their freedom. So should every other country. I REALLY hope that this will finally starts the EU on the road to collapse.

[Tonci87 163]

Just a small heads up for all people in eastern europe who constantly bitch about the EU:

 

This is how it is done. You don´t like it? There is the door, you are free to leave.

 

Of course we all know that despite their big talking not a single eastern european country will actually go ahead and attempt to leave the EU.

 

All that EU money is too tasty.

 

And BTW, I feel sorry for the brits. You guys have no idea what a economic downfall is coming your way....

[dontknowhow 33]

And we still fucked them over when we had the chance

Going a bit off topic, but it would be fair to point out that the values and ideals go both ways: I don't fuck you and you don't fuck me. And I haven't seen much of it coming from Greece, not even when it's about the things that are beneficial for them in the first place, like fighting tax evasion and corruption.

 

That the EU uses that leverage and strikes some good deals for us, but not for Britain.

I am afraid I approve that. I look after my own interest.

 

Just a small heads up for all people in eastern europe who constantly bitch about the EU:

 

This is how it is done. You don´t like it? There is the door, you are free to leave.

 

Of course we all know that despite their big talking not a single eastern european country will actually go ahead and attempt to leave the EU.

 

All that EU money is too tasty.

oh my god, why can I like this only once?

I might only add: no one here is talking about dictatorship or colonies.

 

And BTW, I feel sorry for the brits. You guys have no idea what a economic downfall is coming your way....

A lot of people say that, but I'm doubtful. I would expect some short term turmoil, and then some agreements, like with Norway and Switzerland. And, because the EU is so much bigger than the UK, the UK will probably mostly just comply, like Norway and Switzerland do.

So they will end up following the EU anyway, this time without the possibility to influence it.

I'm reading of this new referendum people want to have, with a minimum of 60% majority and 75% turnout. I understand the turnout, but 60% majority doesn't look very democratic to me.

And some people want London to secede. And of course Scotland, maybe Northern Ireland.

Calm down guys, it's bad but not so bad.

[Tonci87 163]

I´m not sure. England has surprisingly little in terms of actual industry left, and as a market it is also not that large. When english companies suddenly start to face serious import taxes they are gonna feel the pressure and many might go out of business. And the domestic market is not large enough to sustain them.

 

Also you must not forget that every 4th human in england is working in the financial sector. Now that they are leaving the EU, London will loose its status as important financial capital. All Banks (especially the american ones, who so far favoured London because there is no language barrier, and it was in the EU) are significantly going to reduce the size of their business in London and move to places in the EU. Frankfurt in Germany is seriously happy about all this I guess....

 

That means that one of Englands biggest remaining industries is going to suffer, and suffer hard.

 

Also, just look at what the Brexit did to the pound..... Do ask yourself how many billions have been lost already.

 

Oh and BTW, living in the UK is going to get more expensive, now that the pound is of so little worth. You will have to pay more to import goods (that your domestic industry is unable to provide).

 

 

And to top it all off, it is quite telling that most of the people who voted to leave belong to two groups. The elderly and the uneducated. Two groups that are very easily influenced by scaremongering, especially when it is about immigrants.

 

In 10 years time, Britain will either seek to get back into the EU, or have very favourable trade agreements in place with the EU. They have no other options.

[simon1279 52]

I'm sure tonci, that sadly EU will do its best to make britain paying and regret for this choice, just by taking a look back at what happened with Tsipras

[Tonci87 163]

Oh no, it is not that. So far Britain has had a very privileged status inside the european union, with far more rights and liberties than many other states. From now in it should be treated as every other country outside of the EU. That sudden loss of all those privileges will hurt hard.

 

Although, who is surprised that UKIP has already announced that some of their promiees they made before the referendum are not valid? Not me

[ProfTournesol 956]

True yes, UK managed to get the best of both world, not really in but not really out. Cameron's latest blackmail was extremely positive for UK, so finally the knee jerk reaction of the referendum is everything but rational, but it clears the situation.

I don't favor any economic retaliation against UK, nobody will gain to challenge the second economy in Europe.

[PuFu 4600]

very different opinions about the Brexit, worth a read:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/brexit-change-europe-britain-us-politics-213990

[djotacon 190]

 

:D

[HallyG 239]

The referendum was an advisory vote for the House of Commons dictating what 'the majority' of people in the UK thought about our position in the EU. This does not necessarily meaning the house has to act upon this information, but, for the UK to legally leave the European Union, article 50 has to be revoked.

I highly recommend reading these few articles:
- Scotland Majority Remain and Northern Ireland majority Remain - Potential for Vetoing any actions taken to leave the EU.
- http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/brexit-change-europe-britain-us-politics-213990:The conservative party needs someone to step up as a leader (essentially meaning the PM will not elected be the public) and to take the entire responsibility of leaving and changing legislation on their shoulders.

- Vote Leave campaign's ambiguous NHS funding pledge

[dontknowhow 33]

I´m not sure. England has surprisingly little in terms of actual industry left, and as a market it is also not that large. When english companies suddenly start to face serious import taxes they are gonna feel the pressure and many might go out of business. And the domestic market is not large enough to sustain them.

 

Also you must not forget that every 4th human in england is working in the financial sector. Now that they are leaving the EU, London will loose its status as important financial capital. All Banks (especially the american ones, who so far favoured London because there is no language barrier, and it was in the EU) are significantly going to reduce the size of their business in London and move to places in the EU. Frankfurt in Germany is seriously happy about all this I guess....

 

That means that one of Englands biggest remaining industries is going to suffer, and suffer hard.

 

Also, just look at what the Brexit did to the pound..... Do ask yourself how many billions have been lost already.

 

Oh and BTW, living in the UK is going to get more expensive, now that the pound is of so little worth. You will have to pay more to import goods (that your domestic industry is unable to provide).

 

 

And to top it all off, it is quite telling that most of the people who voted to leave belong to two groups. The elderly and the uneducated. Two groups that are very easily influenced by scaremongering, especially when it is about immigrants.

 

In 10 years time, Britain will either seek to get back into the EU, or have very favourable trade agreements in place with the EU. They have no other options.

I think we are saying more or less the same thing. Maybe we should define some time frames.

 

What happened to the pound was impressive, but that is just the first day. There is more to come (how's the story that the stock market burned more money in one day than the whole British donations to the EU in 15 years?). It will take at least months to sort this mess out; just for a trade agreement, which is obviously an important piece of this story, it will take years. This will be time of uncertainty, and no one likes to give money to anybody when there is uncertainty. So watch the economy collapse while everyone is panicking.

 

Even worse, we will have problems too. And worst of all, Boris Johnson might be the next prime minister.

 

What happens after that is anyone's guess. The EU is obviously interested in trading with the UK, but the UK is even more interested in trading with the EU. We are talking about a market of almost 450 million people, of which more than 300 in the euro zone, against UK's 60. 44% of the British exports last year went to Europe; it was over 50% 10 years ago. And 44% of foreign direct investment between 2005 and 2014 came from Europe.

So I more or less agree: I think that eventually the UK will rejoin, once there is a generational change maybe. Before that there will be a trade agreement, and in a previous post I already said that probably the UK will mostly end up following the EU anyway, exactly what they didn't want to do. So at the end it probably won't change a lot; if there will be a change, I'm afraid it will be for the worse.

 

Even without real changes, the fact that the UK is out of the European market will have consequences in the long term too, but I just don't think they will be catastrophic. I think the Brits, passed a first difficult period, can happily leave their life, like the Norwegians and the Swiss do (granted, the Norwegians and the Swiss have some advantages over the UK). The problems are for me more at geopolitical and social level.

 

Speaking of which, I am reading now of regrexit, regretting voting for brexit. How retarded do you have to be to vote leave and not expect consequences? It seems that a lot of people are thinking like this guy:

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/uk-referendum-regrexit/index.html

 

My vote -- I didn't think was going to matter too much because I thought we were just going to remain

 

[dontknowhow 33]

The referendum was an advisory vote for the House of Commons dictating what 'the majority' of people in the UK thought about our position in the EU. This does not necessarily meaning the house has to act upon this information, but, for the UK to legally leave the European Union, article 50 has to be revoked.

I think it has to be invoked :)

 

I'll be honest: I am for the Brexit, but you guys are always welcome to stay. But honestly, all this mess and then not invoking article 50 of the Lisbon treaty... I mean...

[PuFu 4600]

The referendum was an advisory vote for the House of Commons dictating what 'the majority' of people in the UK thought about our position in the EU. This does not necessarily meaning the house has to act upon this information, but, for the UK to legally leave the European Union, article 50 has to be revoked.

while this particular referendum is not legally binding, imagine what is gonna happen if the house fails to follow through...

surely, there were some guys like this idiot here: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/i-bregrexit-i-voted-for-brexit-and-now-i-realise-what-a-terrible-mistake-i-made-a7104181.htmlthat thinks voting is a prank in itself, but i doubt these made the difference of 1+ mil ppl

[Tonci87 163]

Well, according to google there was a surprising rise in searches related to potential consequences of the Brexit (or even what the EU is), on the day after the vote.

A lot of people who voted to leave do seem to regret it by now. It seems that many have voted leave, just to vote against Cameron, and not to actually leave the EU. Now that they are faced with the potential consequences, they get second thoughts.

[nodunit 397]

Well, according to google there was a surprising rise in searches related to potential consequences of the Brexit (or even what the EU is), on the day after the vote.

A lot of people who voted to leave do seem to regret it by now. It seems that many have voted leave, just to vote against Cameron, and not to actually leave the EU. Now that they are faced with the potential consequences, they get second thoughts.

It's a global event and ther was a lot of doomsaying prior to it, of course there would be a lot of people looking for information considering what we saw with the banks shortly after.

Also where and who has said they "didn't mean it'"?   Right now there seems to be a huge push back against the vote, and this could just be another technique to do so.

[spooky lynx 73]

May someone explain me, why there are so many talks about that referendum? Is its result mandatory for the parliament? Or it's just about official EU pic that shows only unity and nice sides being torn?

Some months ago there was another referendum in the Netherlands about possible EU membership for Ukraine. Do you remember the final reaction on its results? My point of view is that final reaction on Brexit will be the same - nothing will be done.

[Jona33 51]

May someone explain me, why there are so many talks about that referendum? Is its result mandatory for the parliament? Or it's just about official EU pic that shows only unity and nice sides being torn?

Some months ago there was another referendum in the Netherlands about possible EU membership for Ukraine. Do you remember the final reaction on its results? My point of view is that final reaction on Brexit will be the same - nothing will be done.

The referendum isn't binding on parliament, but it has already caused the resignation of the PM (and the collapse of the Opposition-10 resignations and a sacking today) and *could* lead to other countries leaving the EU, hence the big deal. Ignoring it would basically be electoral suicide for any politician. Also I wouldn't be so sure that nothing will be done, I suspect we will officially leave the EU (invoking Article 50) but the resultant agreement will look near enough the same. Boris Johnson (potentially the next PM, a terrifying thought) has basically said that the only thing he wants to change is how much the UK follows EU laws. A  quick look around the internet makes it appear that we would have to follow most of them in exchange for access to the EEA (using Norway as an example) but there's still at least two years of wrangling to come.

[spooky lynx 73]

Well, concidering mentioned referendum about Ukraine it looks like going opposite to the result isn't a problem.

 

 

and *could* lead to other countries leaving the EU

This. So it disrupts the official view on EU translated outside. Because if one of the leading union members wants to step out then it looks like there's something wrong with that union. Really wrong.

[ProfTournesol 956]

Well, concidering mentioned referendum about Ukraine it looks like going opposite to the result isn't a problem.

This. So it disrupts the official view on EU translated outside. Because if one of the leading union members wants to step out then it looks like there's something wrong with that union. Really wrong.

 

I don't want to drag that topic offtopic (There's already a European politics topic for that), but well, there's obviously a gap between how EU works and how people think it should work. My point of view is that people don't want "more Europe", more supranational authorities, more bureaucracy and less sovereingty. That message MUST be heard in Brussels, or more countries may want to leave, particularly the wealthiest ones.

 

On the other hand, Britain was always very eurosceptic, since the beginning, always trying to blackmail EU to get a specific treatment. You cannot be IN and OUT. The latest negociations by Cameron were, IMHO, unacceptable, and thus, Britain leaving EU is not only logical, it's fair, even if I regret it.

[vilas 477]

some people thought that European Commision would wake up and stop doing nonsense after Brexit but... it seems not, 

Polish journalists get documents in which EU wants much bigger integration which destroys sovereignty , Merkel does all to destroy union of states :

http://www.tvp.info/25939587/europejskie-superpanstwo-zobacz-oryginalny-dokument

Merkel and Hollande ideas to bring more migrants and liquidate national states - will end in civil war in Europe, USSR-2 will not work , Brexit doesn't teach those "leaders of EU" to stop madness of migration and integration as deep as lately

more ideas to delete national-structures - more exits