What would an insurgency in 2035 look like?

[Freighttrain4 1]

What would the uniforms of apparel look like?

What weapons would they use?

What Vehicles would they use?

Would IEDs and other ambush tactics change or stay the same as current ones in 2013?

Why would there be an insurgency in 2035?

Would they just be basic Guerrillas like in Chernarus or Taliban like foes, like in Afghanistan?

Discuss.

[OrLoK 20]

Hello there

One would imagine they would look like the rebels/freedom fighters/terrorists we have now. The weapons will be slightly updated but it's doubtful they'll generally have modern caseless ammo/floating breech weapons. They'll have whats available, "cheap" and plentiful.

Look at them in any publication photos and many weapons are similar but items like walkmen are now ipods etc. I still envisage AK's (no particular version) being the norm.

Advances in Digital Printing could drastically alter things, but on the whole I'd say they'll be largely the same as we see now.

Rgds

LoK

[Zickefoose 1]

It would all depend on funding. Who has who's back. Someone will always supply both sides of a war. In most cases, the same funding both.

[johncage 30]

you've been watching too many movies and/or playing too many bad games like call of duty.

[metalcraze 290]

It will be the same. Rebels/terrorists/insurgents/blablabla always have the worst stuff and IEDs are a damn effective way of hitting the morale hard (apart from inflicting casualties of course). Unlike hi-tech stuff these can be made even in a mud hut. You can be sure they aren't going anywhere.

[instagoat 133]

Their tactics will need to change, I think.

Radio and Cell based IEDs will probably be reliably jammed, and it´s not like the average insurgency has a research departement to figure out new Radio systems for building IEDs.

Shot detectors will make attacks with rifles extremely risky, and moving around the terrain will be a lottery with the possibillity of drone coverage 24/7 using heat imaging

I´d suspect Insurgents will have a much more difficult time, outside of very densely built up areas. It´s likely that ambushes and the like will either take place in -very- remote terrain, or inside of cities.

[kyang03 10]

Like most rebels or a fighting force, they will use guns that they like, im pretty sure the ak47/74 will still be used as its been a great weapon and has been in service in so many countries. Of course since it is 2035 im pretty sure insurgency will be updated with some newer guns as its 2035 and with better equipment to defend or attack.

[sproyd 2]

I agree with Instagoat - I think even a well organised anti-governmental insurgency would struggle as NATO military technology advances. In the 21st century the drone program and other modern technologies like thermal imaging, UAVs, guided hellfires etc means that insurgencies cannot stand a chance of 1:1 warfare. The best they can hope for is guerilla tactics, terrorism IEDs, ambushes etc. I would imagine in 20-30 years time they will be even further hampered.

Of course, intelligence is really the best way to hamper an insurgency and that probably doesn't make leaps and strides quite like military technology does.

[Sanguinius 1]

Maybe... the upgraded version of the AK47M (Heh, Maybe, maybe the... AK-47F. Heh. Heh. What, it's funny.)

Definitely larger explosives, better weapons, vehicles.

The problem is, what exactly would their financing or supply be? Would thney practically be farmers, or would they be funded by NATO/ Steal weapons and vehicles from Iranians.

[Saliiim 10]

Since insurgents are usually armed with old military tech that is sold to them, I'd imagine they'd use weaponry on par with today's standard, but maybe without the clothing and NVG.

[kireta21 13]

Latest wars show creativity went up quite a lot, mixing old military tech with modern civvy tech and wonders of free market seem to work out just fine.

In Syria we see old AKMs with civ parts, laserpointers and reddots, M16A1s with modern hunting scopes, civvy rifles effectively working as sniper systems and homemade armored vehicles with remote controlled turrets.

In Lybia digital cameras with all that cool but seemingly useless stuff: x25 zoom, IR, movement detector, became important tool in counter-sniping. cell phones work just fine as makeshift radio equipement.

About 5 years ago US forces lost several AH-64s in Iraq, due to dead-on mortar fire. Insurgents likely used Google Earth to find their exact location, after dumbass soldier uploaded pictures on facebook without removing geotags.

[r3volution 0]

This is actually a really fascinating question with a lot of real world recent examples to inspire some authenticity.

Any successful modern insurgency is heavily networked, using civilian communications tools at first to co-ordinate attacks and to try and evade enemy forces. Stands to reason that this would only increase in the future. Additionally most insurgencies do incorporate elements of the military into themselves as the military deserts or breaks up (eg. Syria).

To your points now.

Uniforms : Anything they can get their hands on, I'm guessing that there would be mix & match uniforms from both captured enemy supplies, as well as remnants of the home country's uniform. Then if any countries are sending aid uniforms are often a choice, so then different camo depending on the donor nations. US Style woodland camo seems popular now, but in the future I would guess maybe old US UCP fatigues, knockoff multicams and a smattering of urban camo.

Weapons : Again, probably civilian weapons as well as IEDs, mines. Then captured enemy weapons as well as any weapons sourced from foreign military aid donors. So say Yugoslav AK's, shotguns, hunting rifles. Maybe some old M16's but I suspect they won't last like AK's do. Syria provides good examples of ingenuity and using whatever is to hand. There was a great example of using a digital camera as a heavy MG sight to zoom in and also record footage of kills.

Vehicles : Civilian vehicles probably. IF the insurgency is very mature then you might see repurposed enemy military vehicles and homegrown armoured and armed vehicles. Again Syria provides some interesting and impressive examples of this with homemade armoured cars etc.

Tactics : I'm guessing that IEDs will remain a standard weapon for a while to come. They will get more sophisticated though, to counteract any advances in IED detection technology. In addition I'm guessing that enemy UAV usage would also be a big influence on tactics. Definitely having to deny the enemy 'eyes in the sky' would be a standard one. Drone hacking a possibility? It's been done already.

Reason for insurgency : Don't know, guess it depends on the storyline. I'd be guessing occupation or civil war with a hint of occupation.

Any insurgency's 'look' and military composition reflects a combination of local cultures, the enemy, and resources available to the insurgents. Hence a poorly funded rural insurgency in a tribal predominantly muslim state looks like the Taliban, but a well funded european insurgency looks like the Bosnian war. Copout answer but hey. :cool:

[Maio 293]

What would the uniforms of apparel look like?

Depends on he setting. Street clothes for urban and sub-urban areas, and what ever goes by as "country wear" for the countryside. I wouldn't wear anything that would make me stand out , due to advanced surveillance tech.

If it's an active insurgency (let's say Syria). Same as before only with some protection/tactical gear. If shit hits the fan, drop the gear and turn into your standard bi-standard.

What weapons would they use?

Local army surplus and "foreign aid" if it's an active insurgency. Bio weapons, molotovs, dumb bombs, what ever can be smuggled into a densely populated area.

What Vehicles would they use?

Captured vehicles and technicals. I also see drones being commonly available and weaponized

Would IEDs and other ambush tactics change or stay the same as current ones in 2013?

Depends on the area. If it's urban, it's plausible, not so much for the countryside.

Why would there be an insurgency in 2035?

Yes.

Would they just be basic Guerrillas like in Chernarus or Taliban like foes, like in Afghanistan

Yes. Not all country's can afford surveillance tech that will deter large groups from moving around and causing havoc.

[samco 1]

Drones Airships Satellite surveillance, shot detectors , remote controlled area denial weapons will make insurgents operations very difficult...like InstaGoat said.

However there are techniques to prevent the jamming of radio/cellphone IED ..as the tech advances for NATO so it is for insurgents and civial applications ( thought the military will have always the leading-edge )

What about 3D-printed rifles ?

[Spanky 1]

I think syria is a great example. They (the rebels) are almost equally matched technologically as their opponents (the government). The reasons the rebels are quite a powerful force is due to the military deserts. Now imagine if an entire tank platoon were to break away from the military and join the rebels. As the above poster said Lybian rebels stole a considerable amount of military hardware, they managed to get hold of tanks and powerful AA vehicles.

Modern civilian tech has proven to be very successful too in terms of coordination. Boobytraps such as IEDs have and will always be around since they can be made with items found within the household.

Additionally insurgencies are a great way to fight proxy wars and try out new gear. Wasnt it the US that armed the mujahideen (or however it's spelt) with stingers and various other weapons to test against soviet helicopters? This continues to go on. EU countries are debating on wether to arm Syrian rebels which have influential Taliban in commanding ranks. I can't be the only one to see this backfiring.

---------- Post added at 14:19 ---------- Previous post was at 14:10 ----------

Its true that the military will ALWAYS have an edge over other groups but that's precisely why terrorists/ rebels (whatever you find appropriate) will always fight a gurrellia war. Now that doesn't mean they can take on an entire military force but look how bloody effective the French resistance was in slowing down Nazi operations in WW2. Things like hit and run tactics are always a pain in the ass. Same goes in Vietnam. The viet cong raided airbases and tried to destroy jets before they were airborne.

So yeah, there's always a way of fighting and destroying a superior force (IMO). I'm no expert

But I do agree with you that their tactics must change depending on their foe as well as the environment they are fighting in

[Laqueesha 474]

Street clothes for urban and sub-urban areas, and what ever goes by as "country wear" for the countryside.

Indeed. Some of the FSA blokes are even wearing Lionel Messi jerseys:

[kireta21 13]

@r3volution

I agree on most , but would like to add two things:

Hacking UAVs won't ever get big, comm will be better protected if hacking will ever be more than single incidents. While I believe UAVs will become important asset for any kind of insurgency, those will be mostly hand-held short range UAV, maybe even build from RC planes. Easy to hide, deployable literally from car's trunk and very hard to detect and engage.

As for IEDs, those are problemative, you can't rely on them when fighting on your own turf, since those kill mostly local population, and that can easily result in locals denying support, or even siding with occupant/puppet gov military forces.

I, for one, would welcome new cool-looking insurgents instead of overused Taliban theme.

http://s1282.beta.photobucket.com/user/kireta21/library/?page=1

Edited March 16, 2013 by boota

[Alistair 10]

I love guerrila warfare.

The idea of being creative in such a harsh situation and overcoming the difficulties is just amazing:

The Syrian Rebel remote controlled tank:

[badlymad 0]

It depends on the degree of foreign support, I'd suppose. The Syrian rebels for instance have received tons of surplus from the Gulf countries (like Steyr AUGs, SSG-69s, FN FALs from Libya, RPG-32s from Jordan, Turkish tactical vests etc). That isn't even including some of the "third-party" imports of older weapons intended to look like they came from Syrian government arsenals (including DSHKs and ZSU cannons) that came from Iraq and Turkey to supplement captured government weaponry. This is besides the considerable financial, communications, intelligence and training assistance that the rebels already receive.

Based on that, a hypothetical Greek insurgency in 2035 that would presumably be sponsored by NATO would feature lightly armed and highly mobile units of rebels, who would be armed with NATO-surplus or Hellenic Army equipment (a possible way to sneak in ARMA 2 weapons like the M4 or the G36), as well as some captured Iranian weaponry. There would be no need to hide who the rebels are affiliated with, so they would also be provided with more advanced rocket launchers and SAMs too. These rebels will probably have tactical equipment (vests, body armor) and NATO-supplied communications/medical equipment. How the rebels would dress would be highly dependent on how much control they have over certain areas and how intense the fighting is, but a mixture of camouflage items (digital Hellenic lizard camo, Iranian camo, surplus NATO camo (UCP, DPM etc.) with civilian clothing is probably expected.

Improvised vehicles would be present but not very common - it is more likely to see rebels using civilian vehicles and technicals as well as captured enemy vehicles in combat. One innovation would probably be the rebels having their own light UAVs, either a tossable one like a RQ-11 Raven or a quadricopter, controllable from tablets or smartphones. Another aspect of the conflict would be the propaganda side of it, which means you will have rebels with their own embedded "journalists" - an armed rebel with a smartphone who will go around with the express purpose of filming attacks for later dissemination.

[tarball 0]

I agree with Instagoat - I think even a well organised anti-governmental insurgency would struggle as NATO military technology advances. In the 21st century the drone program and other modern technologies like thermal imaging, UAVs, guided hellfires etc means that insurgencies cannot stand a chance of 1:1 warfare. The best they can hope for is guerilla tactics, terrorism IEDs, ambushes etc. I would imagine in 20-30 years time they will be even further hampered.

Of course, intelligence is really the best way to hamper an insurgency and that probably doesn't make leaps and strides quite like military technology does.

This was relatively true going past many centuries (for instance, the Romans had to maintain their empire in the face of insurgent activities). Technology will clearly move the ratio in warfare, but rebels/insurgents have always needed to deal with asymmetry.

---------- Post added at 14:21 ---------- Previous post was at 14:19 ----------

I love guerrila warfare.

The idea of being creative in such a harsh situation and overcoming the difficulties is just amazing:

The Syrian Rebel remote controlled tank:

http://global.fncstatic.com/static/managed/img/Leisure/2009/syrianrebeltank1.jpg

http://global.fncstatic.com/static/managed/img/Leisure/2009/syrianrebeltank3.jpg

http://global.fncstatic.com/static/managed/img/Leisure/2009/syrianrebeltank2.jpg

Cool pics, seen 'em before. Since he's sitting in the vehicle, I don't think he's "remotely" controlling the vehicle.

[samco 1]

After those cool pics...i would say :

http://lolbot.net/pix/18422.gif (115 kB)

[LordJarhead 1725]

Either they are all dead by 2035 or they'll look like http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/images/hitler1.jpg :D

LJ

[das attorney 858]

The future looks bright then! ;)

I think they'll have lots of British equipment seeing as my government loves selling arms to anyone willing to buy.

[LordJarhead 1725]

The future looks bright then! ;)

I think they'll have lots of British equipment seeing as my government loves selling arms to anyone willing to buy.

Same for germany, USA, Russians. So they have a mix up then^^

LJ

[johncage 30]

in arma 3 they look like they all got access to a huge supply of grey jumpsuits and red armbands.

for realisms sake, i'd like to see civilians with guns.