Syria - What should we do if anything?

[ProfTournesol 956]

While the Kurdish fighters bravely resist against IS in Kobane, Turkey send airplanes to bomb PKK after the shelling of Turkish outposts.

[Xalteva 10]

While the Kurdish fighters bravely resist against IS in Kobane, Turkey send airplanes to bomb PKK after the shelling of Turkish outposts.

Lol !

I am sure they know why ! Turkey knows that there are forces that try to involve it in this mess ,the fights that started in Kobane are not a coincidence for sure ,there is a political battle going on in the background that most of us fail to see/understand. Not to mention the recent decrease in oil prices.

We don't really know who are exactly IS ,everything is messed up right now ,you can easily confuse rebels and IS in Iraq and in Syria, Kurds are presented to us as heroes today but who knows what they are doing exactly! IS is becoming more an accusation than a specific organization ,depending on what side you are

[Tonci87 163]

All I know is that Turkey is creating a new internal war with the Kurds if Kobane falls to the IS

[ProfTournesol 956]

Lol !

I am sure they know why ! Turkey knows that there are forces that try to involve it in this mess ,the fights that started in Kobane are not a coincidence for sure ,there is a political battle going on in the background that most of us fail to see/understand. Not to mention the recent decrease in oil prices.

We don't really know who are exactly IS ,everything is messed up right now ,you can easily confuse rebels and IS in Iraq and in Syria, Kurds are presented to us as heroes today but who knows what they are doing exactly! IS is becoming more an accusation than a specific organization ,depending on what side you are

Conspiracy theories are of no interest for me.

---------- Post added at 17:02 ---------- Previous post was at 17:00 ----------

All I know is that Turkey is creating a new internal war with the Kurds if Kobane falls to the IS

Indeed. It may be time for them to find a way to solve the conflict with Kurds while helping them to fight IS.

[Tonci87 163]

The thing is that Erdogan is afraid that the Kurds might form their own state in their controlled territories. He really doesn´t want that. Therefore the Turky is waiting for the Kurds and the IS to weaken each other.

Kurds were demonstrating inside Turkey to make the government do something and the police cracked down on those demonstrations really hard. There were several dead Kurds. As a retalitation for that some PKK fighters shelled an army base and Erdogan avenged that with heavy airstrikes. Bsically Erdogan is a dick and I can´t understand why he was voted into office again....

[ProfTournesol 956]

To be fair the conflict between the PKK and Turkey was the cause of more the 40 000 casualties, so i suppose that even the secular opponents to Erdogan aren't very willing to help the PKK. But it really looks like the Soviet Army waiting for the Nazis to get rid of the Polish resistance before moving in.

[654wak654 25]

The thing is that Erdogan is afraid that the Kurds might form their own state in their controlled territories. He really doesn't want that. Therefore the Turkey is waiting for the Kurds and the IS to weaken each other.

Kurds were demonstrating inside Turkey to make the government do something and the police cracked down on those demonstrations really hard. There were several dead Kurds. As a retalitation for that some PKK fighters shelled an army base and Erdogan avenged that with heavy airstrikes. Basically Erdogan is a dick and I can´t understand why he was voted into office again....

They were trying that forming their own state thing since Ottoman fell, nothing new with RTE. Also the police killed more Turks in protests than they killed Kurds. Remember #OccupyGezi ?.. It wasn't retaliation, they're trying to make it look like one but they were shelling and burning waay before any Kurds got killed. RTE is the biggest dick, only reason he gets elected again (this time in a higher position btw) is because he's a good dick, can control a %50 idiotic part of the country (Ironically, mostly the eastern side.).

ProfTournesol no body is willing to help PKK, not the secular party, not RTE, no one. They are terrorists and (again) only reason they fighting the other Terrorists is to keep their territory close to us, rather than them having territory close to us. They're both fighting for Kobani to eventually have a place really close to Turkey. I liked the resemblance though, fits with RTE's somewhat of a plan.

[ProfTournesol 956]

@654wak654 : do you think Turkey should intervene to save Kobane population from being slaughtered by IS, despite PKK being considered as a terrorist movement ? What do you think that will happen in Turkey with the Kurdish minority if Kobane falls ?

[Tonci87 163]

If Kobane falls and Turkish troops just sit there and do nothing, then the Kurd population in Turkey will be extremely pissed. Especially if IS kills civilians and prisoners.

Then Turkey and the PKK will return back to the old days of terror attacks....

[Xalteva 10]

Conspiracy theories are of no interest for me.

And i hate "dry" news/fantasies or movie-like scenarios of brave and evil people.

And i don't see what is conspirational in my comment ! maybe ,it's just too tough for you ,i can understand :)

[654wak654 25]

I'm assuming 2 things;

If we don't intervene, IS will take Kobani.

If we do intervene, they will be back. We can't fully get rid of them, that'll take the whole Syria and even beyond.

@ProfTournesol: I whould say "We should intervene" early September, but the Kurds here are getting worse by day, after HDP (Which is the successor of an old PKK supporting party) asked them to protest, that's the one where they got a taste of the Gezi. They're eventually going to cause their own peoples slaughter by causing chaos inside the country which makes it so we can't focus on the outside. I whouldn't be surprised if they blamed us for the IS take-over in Kobani, while PKK is the one attacking us like the IS is not enough for them? They're retardness getting blamed on us while RTE is sitting on his ass waiting for the West. Which most likely isn't going to happen any time soon. Nobody wants to Touch Syria until we do, and we don't want to touch Syria until anybody else does!

Let's say we did go in to Syria and fought off IS, there is a huge change the military will consider both sides as an enemy, specially with the recent rise of tension with PKK again. That will piss of the Kurds inside the country even if we save Kobani from IS, if we sit on the border like now and let IS take Kobani, they're eventually going to come over here and it's going to be even worst than it is with PKK... Like everyone here already said, we're the ones to blame for in both ways, let's just hope they attack Russia this winter :).

Edited October 15, 2014 by 654wak654

[Xalteva 10]

I'm assuming 2 things;

If we don't intervene, IS will take Kobani.

If we do intervene, they will be back. We can't fully get rid of them, that'll take the whole Syria and even beyond.

Ok ! i will be more direct ... Turkey knows exactly who is financing these IS guys ,the fight against them will drain its ressources uselessly, so they just keep an eye on kurds who are easier to manage,and who have also their agenda.

[654wak654 25]

Ok ! i will be more direct ... Turkey knows exactly who is financing these IS guys ,the fight against them will drain its ressources uselessly, so they just keep an eye on kurds who are easier to manage,and who have also their agenda.

Yep, Turkey's not really one of the war machines in the Middle-east, the last conflict the better for economy. Also because if there is no war to worry about, politicians can focus on waay more important things like if middle school and high school girls can wear turban in schools.

[Dwarden 1124]

the real issue is that , while there are attacks going, IS seems to be able roam free, including tanks (anyone remember those videos of Kobani countryside and IS rolling like 6-8 tanks which seems like t-72 in line) ?

how's that even possible , I mean tank are quite easy targets to recognize from air compared to trucks or SUVs in terms of 'for sure not civilians'

[Tonci87 163]

The Airstrikes don´t seem to be very frequent...

Turkey missed a historical chance here. By helping the Kurds early on Turkey could have settled the conflict with the PKK completely.

[mistyronin 1181]

ProfTournesol no body is willing to help PKK, not the secular party, not RTE, no one.

If fact the US and the coalition are helping them, or those air strikes are "God's will"?

Another fact, is that most of the NATO and European countries consider the PKK a "terrorist" group because Turkey does, not because they believe they are. And as Turkey is an important strategic partner...

In any way, what's true is that Turkey's sole selfish interest wouldn't benefit at this point from assisting the Kurds in Kobane.

[ProfTournesol 956]

Considering the length of the frontier between Turkey and Syria, an open ground conflict between Syria (vs IS or vs Assad) and Turkey would be a great danger for Turkey, even more or less backed by NATO. Another point to consider is the reaction of Iran if Turkey steps in.

[ProfTournesol 956]

(Vice News) Turkey's Border War (Dispatch 1)

PA-3MeRblRI

[katipo66 94]

I wanted to post this in the ISIS thread but can only micro discuss there or get reported or something? Guess we need a Turkey thread..

It's important to try and understand why Turkey allows no help what so ever into Kobane..

Some commentary:

"Should fighting between the PKK and Turkey resume, the fight against ISIS will become even more complicated as the PKK, one of the most capable forces in the fight against ISIS, will also return to a state of war with Turkey. This development would make Turkish participation against ISIS in Syria even more unlikely as any anti-ISIS intervention would aid the Kurds." http://www.businessinsider.com.au/syrias-ominous-impact-on-turkey-2014-10

Also Turkey has had a major role in helping create ISIS by opening it's border to any and every foreign fighter during the whole civil war allowing both moderate or extreme to go fight Assad, the Toppling of Assad is still Turkeys main priority and does not seem to phased that ISIS is right at it's doorstep.

From same article:

Turkey has stuck to a policy where it demands that any meaningful strikes against ISIS must also include concrete efforts to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power.

Edited October 15, 2014 by Katipo66

[ProfTournesol 956]

Turkey has stuck to a policy where it demands that any meaningful strikes against ISIS must also include concrete efforts to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power.

While i do agree that the Syrian conflict needs a global solution (with the help of China and Russia...even unlikely to happen), it is not possible nor strategically clever to fight against IS and Assad at the same time.

[oxmox 73]

Freedom vs. Stability

Are Dictators Worse than Anarchy?

(only parts of the text posted)

Although there is always reason to celebrate the toppling of an autocrat, the outcome of the Iraq war and the rise of Islamic State have demonstrated in horrific terms that the alternative can be even worse. The last decade has shown that there is something worse than dictatorship, worse than the absence of freedom, worse than oppression: civil war and chaos. .

Just before the outbreak of the war, I visited northern Iraq, including the town of Halabja, where Saddam murdered thousands of Iraqi Kurds with poison gas in 1988.

Although I was not in favor of the Iraq war, my visit made it clear to me that the overthrow of a dictator is cause for joy.

But in the end, the skeptics were proven right. In 2003, Enzensberger believed forecasts that up to 200,000 people would die in Iraq as a result of the invasion were absurdly high. But serious studies have suggested that that number has been significantly exceeded in the 11 years since Saddam's fall.

Iraq and the entire region have descended into chaos and anarchy, clearing the way for the radicalization fostered by Islamic State.

There are many reasons to be gratified by the end of a dictatorship. For one, it means that a criminal is no longer in a position of power. And there's the prospect that democracy could take root in its stead. Some people also believe that anything is better than despotism. But that last belief is incorrect.

What Is the Role of the State?

The last decade has shown that there is something worse than dictatorship, worse than the absence of freedom, worse than oppression: civil war and chaos.

The "failing states" that currently stretch from Pakistan to Mali show that the alternative to dictatorship isn't necessarily democracy -- all too often, it is anarchy.

In the coming years, global politics will not be defined by the polarity between democratic and autocratic states as much as it will by the contrast between functioning and non-functioning ones.

Rule is order. For Thomas Hobbes, the father of modern political science, the intrinsic function of the state was to impose legal order in order to subdue the "state of nature."

The Importance of Stability

All of which raises the question: Is stability a value in and of itself? Those who answer in the affirmative are often seen as cynics who place little importance in freedom and human rights. But the uncomfortable truth is that dictatorship is often preferable to anarchy. Were people given a choice between a functioning dictatorship and a failing or failed state, the dictatorship would often be seen as the lesser evil. And most people believe that a more-or-less secure livelihood and a modicum of justice are more important than individual freedoms and unimpeachable democracy.

It is easy to label these kinds of attitudes as backwards from the comfort of a Western democracy.

Political instability triggers the yearning for order, sometimes at any price -- and thus often paves the way for extremists. That was true in Germany at the end of the Weimar Republic; in Russia, Stalinism followed the revolution and civil war; in Afghanistan, the period of unrest following the Soviet withdrawal spurred the rise of the Taliban. And now Islamic State has appeared in Iraq and Syria.

That is why the swath of political instability stretching from Pakistan to Mali is so disconcerting. In Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya, central governments have lost control over vast portions of their territory and entire countries are becoming ungovernable. Tribes and clans are fighting with each other while warlords are exerting regional control -- at least, until they lose it again.

The failed democratization of Iraq and the unsuccessful "Arab Spring" in Syria have fed the rise of Islamic State. In neither of these countries does democracy currently have realistic prospects for success. *The best solution for Syria -- and this is not cynicism speaking -- would perhaps be a military putsch against Assad. It would rid the country of its dictator while leaving the country's last center of power, the Syrian army, intact and able to resist Islamic State.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/why-keeping-a-dictator-is-often-better-than-instability-a-996101.html

* :rolleyes: to spread even more chaos, after the last secular state under Assad is gone in the whole mid east. Great. Overall it is a nice read, but what the text is missing is the fact that people not only prefer stability over anarchy, but that some countries need some kind of dominant leadership and exporting democracy to replace it with only the view of western eyes would not always do good.

A different view from another journalist :

Anarchy vs. Stability: Dictatorships and Chaos Go Hand in Hand

The argument that a stable, autocratic state is better than a failed one has become increasingly fashionable. But it misses the fact that autocracies are ultimately the source of that chaos.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/stable-dictatorships-are-not-the-lesser-evil-a-996278.html

* Another good read, neverless imo in this article the role of the influence from outside comes short.

Edited October 15, 2014 by oxmox

[ProfTournesol 956]

Those articles trying to defend Assad make me sick and are deeply stupid IMHO. They only forgot that Assad is responsible for the chaos in his own country, even before any foreign influences poped up in Syria, because of his blind and bloody repression of pacific demonstrations. So you have dictatorship THEN chaos, not dictatorship OR chaos.

Anyway,

(BBC News) Syria conflict: '200 air force strikes' in 36 hours

The Syrian military has stepped up air strikes on rebel areas dramatically, carrying out more than 200 in recent days, opposition activists say.

And

Mr Zoubi also said Syrian army and air force had been providing military and logistical support to the Kurdish fighters in Kobane, despite not being part of the international coalition fighting IS.

I wonder what will happen when Syrian Air force and coalition Air force will meet :rolleyes:

[Xalteva 10]

They will never meet! and that coalition against IS story is so pathetic when you compare it to Iraq's 2003 war ... not serious at all. How many planes were sent to fight the extremists ?? They want to make us believe they're fighting terrorism ? seriously...

Assad says that it's a conspiracy against his country, maybe he is not that wrong! many colonels quit his army to joined the ISIS wahhabi funded joke ,those were the guys creating chaos!

[vilas 473]

they do not have money to fight terrorism,

they sent hundreds of jets in 2001 cause they had money for it

after dozen of years there is no money for anything , thats why now this IS is so strong, cause our civilisation is "war tired" and they know about it plus they afraid to send more because Jihadists hide between immigrants, even if Jihadists are 5% of imigrants , than among one milion of imigrants 5% means 50 000 people army ready to kill and die,

after banksters baked "crisis" in 2008 our economy also fallen down, so we cannot spend as much on jets,

this is not "because we do not want to act" , it is because "we do not have money for it" ,

plus extremism is supported by rich Muslim countries such as Saudi Arabia which makes it fights harder

Edited October 26, 2014 by vilas

[Xalteva 10]

And Saudi arabia is a big ally to USA (Quincy's pact)! And USA spends more than all countries gathered in weaponery, i don't think that money is a problem.

IS is selling huge quantities of oil each day to the "black market", we're not talking about a gang's smuggling ! 1 million dollars each day,and it's happening under the coalition fighters. You don't have to be a conspitard to see that there is something not right with IS! and please don't tell me that they are so powerful that the coalition can do nothing! i remind you of that Israeli F16 that took down a convoy heading to Lebanon from syria which was suspected to carry chemical weapons ... oil price in the world is not now around 90$ because of the smuggled oil being exported from Iraq and Syria in a huge quantities! you should ask yourself now who is controlling the black market ??

Ofcourse, there is an extremist organization committing crimes in the region, but our medias are putting all their efforts in turning our attention away from the real deal!

Edited October 26, 2014 by Xalteva