Syria - What should we do if anything?

[Mattar_Tharkari 10]

One of the largest cheap shots so far. You're essentially isolating a long series of events to the single one in which the least amount of personnel is required, and then claims that's all the personnel needed. Yeah, a Scud can be operated by a crew of 5, but the events leading up to it being operated in the field requires a lot more. Arming it with a chemical warhead, scouting for locations suitable for a chemical attack, the large security detachment you'd have to send along to protect it in a civil war, and note to mention the hundreds, if not thousands of regime soldiers in the area who'd have to be warned in advance to avoid fratricide (gas sure isn't accurate) and the rest of the entire infrastructure behind the launchers of the gas alone takes the number up into the thousands.

That isn't how it works, you clearly lack understanding of the process - nice Hollywood imagination there. Read up on the First World War and you will get a picture of how it is done. As CW are delivered by binary warhead they have a long shelf life so the original manufacture has no direct role in how they are deployed in the following months or years - if what you say were true it would be easy for an enemy to track their movements and destroy them, a serious disadvantage. They can be fired from within military bases or secure areas - the commander only has to point at a spot on the map like conventional artillery. As for warning troops - unlikely, they are universally fired behind enemy lines. Think about it, a sudden withdrawal of your troops could result in a rout and then the enemy wouldn't be where you wanted them to be.

Rebels firing Sarin shells?

This has been floating around for a few days of its upload, whats interesting is the verification of this and if mainstream would even touch it for reference. I post this not to prove anything becuase it needs verification obviously of place and time and just like anything else, but ref the thread if people didn't see it hence "?". Not sure about the music on it though.

Seeing as you beg so nicely not to be given a swift kick in the nuts over that ROFL vid - shall we agree that it's already been given in principle? ;)

There is a reason the mainstream don't take it seriously, lack of range and incorrect configuration for starters, we might also discuss how the amount of explosive required to blow that casing open would also destroy most of the useful substance inside? Contact fuse? Not really suitable for Sarin delivery is it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8x2Ey9A7ck

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MI8t0NVSOlI

Edited August 29, 2013 by Mattar_Tharkari

[scrim 1]

When you have to make up arguments from the other guy to win, you've already lost the debate.

Where did I say anything about the manufacturers?

And yeah sure, just go ahead and fire the Scud from the base without moving it any closer for accuracy, despite the fact that your own guys are in the area. Which brings us to the second point, that it wasn't fired behind enemy lines, but took place where both opposition and regime forces were. Why do you think the regime escorted the UN team over there? And since their own guys were there, how come not one of all those thousands of guys defected when they went so far as to use chemical weapons? They'd had to have warned their own guys about an impending chem attack, due to very obvious factors.

[Mattar_Tharkari 10]

The attack took place during an artillery barrage - are you telling us Assad shells his own troops as well? You are less plausible than most others here.

As for escorting - check the news, it all shows this:

A Free Syrian Army fighter carries his weapon as he and fellow fighters escort a convoy of United Nations (UN) vehicles carrying a team of UN chemical weapons experts at one of the sites of an alleged chemical weapons attack in Damascus' suburbs of Zamalka on Wednesday. Picture: REUTERS

[mrcash2009 0]

Seeing as you beg so nicely not to be given a swift kick in the nuts over that ROFL vid - shall we agree that it's already been given in principle?

For someone that posted snipes at Dwarden about unfinished game, morals and other rude snide remarks you have trumped in the last few pages, and then responded with equivalent videos, please keep the moderation lectures to a minimum my dear. I dont see the issue with posting that video unless your biased of course.

There is a reason the mainstream don't take it seriously, lack of range and incorrect configuration for starters, we might also discuss how the amount of explosive required to blow that casing open would also destroy most of the useful substance inside? Contact fuse? Not really suitable for Sarin delivery is it?

I bet if they were dressed in uniform the media would be pounding this on a loop all over the world, technicalities or not (or even an Arma2 footage rendition).

Edited August 29, 2013 by mrcash2009
225

[scrim 1]

The attack took place during an artillery barrage - are you telling us Assad shells his own troops as well? You are less plausible than most others here.

As for escorting - check the news, it all shows this:

http://www.bdlive.co.za/incoming/2013/08/28/un-28-august-2013.jpg/ALTERNATES/crop_400x250/UN+28+August+2013.JPG

Yeah, you do know that the area is pretty much in the current frontline, contested by both sides? And by the way, if the area was only under opposition control, then kindly explain why sharpshooters there targeted the UN convoy to prevent them from gaining access to the area. Surely they would welcome them so they could prove what their enemy had done?

[Degman 73]

Some of war analitycs said that attack on Syria is possible start of WW3. It makes perfect sense for me, because Croatian army not that long time ago has created battalion which will fight in world for NATO and EU interests, as well as Croatia is building new military base and buying/getting new vehicles. (PzH 2000, M-ATV, transport trucks, etc)

I dont want to spread panic or anything, but just saying how it is. Looks like something big is happening.

---------- Post added at 20:13 ---------- Previous post was at 20:10 ----------

http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-sends-at-least-12-warships-to-syria/

[ProfTournesol 956]

Mmm 12 warships seems a lot, the other info i've heard said 2 : http://www.france24.com/en/20130829-france-russia-warships-mediterranean-syria

[Degman 73]

Who knows ? However, even if they send even only one of them it means that probably there will be conflict beteween USA and Russia. Syria and Iran are important to Russia and China.

[ProfTournesol 956]

Well, those are political gesticulations more than serious threats. Nobody has interest in such a conflict. The real threat comes from Syrian neighbours and middle eastern religious and strategical interests, such as Iran, Saoudi Arabia / Quatar and Turkey. Irak is already burning (almost 4000 death in terrorist attacks those last months), and Lebanon isn't far from that.

This religious picture of the region says a lot :

[Degman 73]

As I said before, Syria is USA's way to attack the Iran. There is possibility that there will be a war, and some less possibility that Russia will be involded in a war directly. (now she's just supporting it's allies with weapons) I dont know what will happen, but I doubt there will be a happy end. (in Syria)

[On_Sabbatical 11]

Actually guys,we're complicating the subject too much :D

Wars and crisis in general are huge money makers for : weaponery companies ,medias and in US, fast food !

- Military companies need to sell their guns to governements and take tax payers money!

- Joe must be sitting infront of his TV when CNN and AlJazeera are broadcasting their ads,they should not lose him, and crisis are highly demanded products by the masses addicted to violence and hatred promoted and fomented by medias themselves! (religious conflicts,pseudo politics etc ...).

- Hollywood is going to produce more movies about the syrian war,and even prepare the audience to the next conflict by injecting new ideas in them !

It's all about keeping the machine turning,it's all about the powerful exploiting the weak to create profit ... it has been this way for ages (imperialism,colonialism ,enslaving ) ,it's just giving itself some new shape to adapt to the era to keep its legitimity (otherwise,chaos will spread).It's about transforming syrian flesh into green papers,it's about keeping the average Joe in the lowest level of the Maslow Pyramid :D

It may not please to everyone,but this is my small truth and it helps me a lot understanding things :D

Edited August 29, 2013 by On_Sabbatical

[Degman 73]

I agree with you, but it wont change a fact that alot of peoples will die, and it wont stop terrible things that could happen. Whatever reason of war is, it still will be terrible.

[On_Sabbatical 11]

I agree with you, but it wont change a fact that alot of peoples will die, and it wont stop terrible things that could happen. Whatever reason of war is, it still will be terrible.

I think that people governing us,don't give a banana about people dying or not !

[ballistic09 241]

I dont want to spread panic or anything, but just saying how it is. Looks like something big is happening.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-sends-at-least-12-warships-to-syria/

The article is from May 17th... I think you can calm down.

I bet if they were dressed in uniform the media would be pounding this on a loop all over the world, technicalities or not (or even an Arma2 footage rendition).

Not always...

Here's a video of

that is almost identical to one that was claimed to be found at the scene of the chemical attack... Haven't seen a single major news outlet report this yet.

Also, that video of the rebels "firing chemical weapons" from that canon is conspiracy nut BS. That canon is an improvised weapon made by the rebels, nicknamed the "Hell Canon," and it's been around for ages. It fires propane tanks because they're more abundant and easier to manufacture from home than actual proper canon rounds. It's essentially just a really simple mortar.

I'm not advocating for the rebels or suggesting the west gets involved in Syria (I believe quite the opposite actually), it's just, blatantly wrong conspiracy nut BS and misinformation dissemination really gets on my nerves... :mad:

Edited August 30, 2013 by Ballistic09

[Mattar_Tharkari 10]

Yep very alleged lol - it's an IRAM - improvised rocket-assisted munition.

Seems to be an Iranian/Hezbollah developed improvement on the device used against the US in Iraq where Iranian supplied Shia Militia would strap a propane tank on the end of a Iranian/Chinese 107mm rocket. There are many pictures of a blue truck with white stripes on the cab in Syria, it has a dual launcher on the back. There is much puzzlement at Assad Forces use of improvised and non standard weapons, it's possibly due to Russian complaints about their bombs and shells being used on civilians.

In this case it's an adapted 122mm Grad rocket. Folding fins have been replaced and there is a large bolt on warhead. They have been found with improvised contact and Russian made time fuzes.

Those IRAMs have been fired at most cities - you can find remains on videos all over YouTube. Most have explosive warheads, as for CW use, it's possible - we will have to see what the UN find. Apart from artillery shells, bombs and rockets, CW was also designed to be sprayed from an aircraft drop tank so looking for delivery remnants on the ground may turn up nothing.

The remains of one fired/found in Iraq in 2007/2008 can be seen here:

Edited August 30, 2013 by Mattar_Tharkari

[jefferspang 2]

Blow to Cameron's authority as MPs rule out British assault on Syria

eEV6ySlsAmk

Makes me feel all warm inside to see the Members of the Parliament acting on behalf of the citizen's interest for once :) Towards the end you can really see the look of defeat and embarrassment on Dave's face.

edit - Whether you support intervention in Syria or not, I think we should all appreciate real Democracy at work here.

Edited August 30, 2013 by JeffersPang

[ballistic09 241]

Yep very alleged lol

Indeed, hence the emphasis on alleged. ;)

However, the fact that the same type of rocket remains were found in the areas that were hit with chemical weapons is suspicious none the less.

as for CW use, it's possible - we will have to see what the UN find.

Looks like we're going to find out eventually:

[vilas 477]

not only what said in post 861 but also Syria is strategic place, it is gate to open attack against Iran and to secure Israel interests , so no matter if opposition (or not) used those weapons, TV propaganda will say its bs, looking at map of that region says much

[Sgt.Spoetnik 10]

Olny problem in this story is again, is the lack off hard evidence,no matter if the UN-teams find something or not, still hard to proof Assad had his finger on the trigger.

Missiles can be shot from anyplace by anybody, and offcourse Assad have these kinds off weapons, but also so did Libya and Iraq where its been proven lots off those weapons disappeard during the chaos and war, and offcource Iran,China,Russia, have them 2 (mayby some crazy sceam by those to take over the world?)

Seen this question before here; who will profit from this? Assad-dont think so,even with the backing off Russia and iran, Or their neighbours that have been giving weapons and support to those so-called rebels, mayby those rebels, mayby 25-30%is real free syrian army,while rest are all groups under islamic flag, All-nusra for one is the biggest and gets the most weapons and supplies from the outsiders( like Qatar,saudi's,UAE,turkey)these are all labelled rebels while they fight for different goals( we all have seen how ruthless they can be)

Then there is indeed that vote in british parlement yesterday,where cameron confirmed it that he had no proof,while at first they where yelling to all that they had hard proof and what not, until he had to go explain to parlement how its all based on believes and youtube footage, or the US their proof of a intercepted phonecall from one off assad's generals(come on REALLY!?)

These are only my toughts after watching and reading lots off stuff, research and knowledge helps to give some answers, but just look at history and its full crazy tiran's and dictators, kings and emperors that used every trick in the book to get their goal achieved, so its not the first time and it wont be the last!!

[Mattar_Tharkari 10]

The burden of proof required by the ICC is "beyond reasonable doubt".....

Pssst .... you are forgetting the Chemical Weapons Convention....all items are logged and inspected so stealing them would be difficult. Also in all signatory nations they are being destroyed, non signatory nations are:

Angola, North Korea, Egypt, South Sudan and Syria. The signatory with the greatest stockpile is Russia (despite being given some $2 billion in aid by the west to pay for destruction), most others have destroyed all stocks or between 85-90%.

The weapons thought to possibly be missing in Libya (destruction began in 2004) are mustard gas - wrong type.

Regarding Iraq:

Iraq declared two bunkers with filled and unfilled chemical weapons munitions, some precursors, as well as five former chemical weapons production facilities damaged so badly they can't be opened without protective clothing and approximately five hundred degraded chemical munitions have been found in Iraq since the 2003 invasion, the weapons contained sarin and mustard agents but were so badly corroded that they could not have been used as originally intended. Most munitions were destroyed under UN supervision in the 1990s.

So it's unlikely.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemical_Weapons_Convention

not only what said in post 861 but also Syria is strategic place, it is gate to open attack against Iran and to secure Israel interests , so no matter if opposition (or not) used those weapons, TV propaganda will say its bs, looking at map of that region says much

They said the same thing about Iraq and Afghanistan which had actual borders with Iran???

Edited August 30, 2013 by Mattar_Tharkari

[mrcash2009 0]

Blow to Cameron's authority as MPs rule out British assault on Syria

edit - Whether you support intervention in Syria or not, I think we should all appreciate real Democracy at work here.

Well its a nice thing, but to be honest it wont take much to get thrown back in once anything takes place via "others" which are still looking to try something. Also the ripple effect on economy /oil and so on depending how it panned out would come back to us anyway. I thought camerons comments were a nice little pat on the publics head to be honest, still getting his point in though anyway.

[Dwarden 1125]

Sarin was invented 70y ago, mass industrially manufactured 50y ago, the level of technology and knowledge moved rapidly since

other chemical weapons are over 100y old ...

the naivity in claims that you need state driven program or ignorance of grey and black market is shocking

it's well known that the UN and global 'embargos' imposed against some states usually are fail because they can be bend as needed

Assad's actual or former chemical stockpile is more likely the source, but it's not 100% put in stone because there are IFs ...

[Mattar_Tharkari 10]

Oh there are always IF's ;)

George Galloway says Israel had a meeting with Al-Qaeda and gave them some (Chemical) weapons to use along with the required training. I'm sure that makes sense to some people?

The number of victims 1429 including 426 children.

The number of injured ~3600

The open air attack and area covered means you can approximate the volume of agent required to cause this based on the lethal dose required (LD50 70 mg-min/m3). Most texts put this at around 1-2 metric tons of Sarin. So could you confirm that tons of nerve agent are available on the black market and how they would be stored and transported and delivered? Also now that we are 13/14 years into the war on terror why is it only now that Al-Qaeda decided to buy some?

I'm not sure how you dream this up Dwarden but after reading through what you have to say on this my advice is to stay off the drugs kiddo.

Syrian gov was what one would consider 'soft dictatorship' , citizen rights were granted as long as you not went against state (hell not that much different from west state system)

also you need to change your rhetoric cause confirmed chemical attacks are 2 neighborhoods (each next to other) of Syria's capital ...

next 2 are also bordering them but unconfirmed and the 5th one on opposing side of city is also unconfirmed ...

also chemical attack in own Capital city would be crazyness especially when you use something as unpredictable as chemical weapons

next to that all indications shows the Syrian gov is actually winning since early of this year(adopting new strategies like pinpoint attacks, combined arms and well though out planning on counter-insurgency)

US analysis and evidence of the attack:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21

Syrian chemical weapons personnel were operating in the Damascus suburb of ‘Adra from Sunday, August 18 until early in the morning on Wednesday, August 21 near an area that the regime uses to mix chemical weapons, including sarin. On August 21, a Syrian regime element prepared for a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus area, including through the utilization of gas masks. Our intelligence sources in the Damascus area did not detect any indications in the days prior to the attack that opposition affiliates were planning to use chemical weapons.

The Attack:

Multiple streams of intelligence indicate that the regime executed a rocket and artillery attack against the Damascus suburbs in the early hours of August 21. Satellite detections corroborate that attacks from a regime-controlled area struck neighborhoods where the chemical attacks reportedly occurred – including Kafr Batna, Jawbar, ‘Ayn Tarma, Darayya, and Mu’addamiyah. This includes the detection of rocket launches from regime controlled territory early in the morning, approximately 90 minutes before the first report of a chemical attack appeared in social media. The lack of flight activity or missile launches also leads us to conclude that the regime used rockets in the attack.

Map showing areas affected:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2013-08-30_map_accompanying_usg_assessment_on_syria.pdf

Edited August 30, 2013 by Mattar_Tharkari

[Degman 73]

English: West is in shock: 20 russian warships, equiped with modern anti-ship missiles, are on their way to Syria.

http://www.vestinet.rs/u-fokusu/zapad-sokiran-20-ruskih-ratnih-brodova-krenulo-ka-siriji

[scrim 1]

Ah shit, the tinfoil hat crowd turned up, guess it was inevitable.

Read carefully: No, the Americans don't want to send off a few Tomahawks (I know, we think 100 of them are many, but you know, they don't) to in some way attack Iran. If they wanted to attack Iran, they would actually attack, hold for dramatic pause, Iran! And no, the Russians won't declare war on the West over Syria, come air strikes or full on invasion and occupation, due to the very simple fact that the Russian government is not made up of a pack of very aggressive chimpanzees, but rather of quite intelligent humans. So there you have it, it's not a sneak attack on Iran (saying "Whops, Tehran and Damascus sounded so alike" or "Iran just to tempting not to bomb" are not excuses that would work), nor is it the start of WW3.

Regarding the attack itself, just some random observations that have not been addressed:

#1, We have yet to mention the fact that the area in where the regime is said to have launched the chemical attack is situated literally speaking only miles away from the hotel at which the UN inspectors, who are currently at the scene, live.

#2, I think we can all agree that employing gas in your own capital on a windy day in a trivial area where the fighting has reached a stalemate would be a very stupid thing to do. And yet, this is exactly what the Assad regime is said to have done.

#3, No one can dispute that the regime would be aware of the UN inspectors arriving in country. So in light of that, why launch a chemical attack, as pointed out within miles of their hotel, no less than 3 days after they arrived?

Edited August 30, 2013 by scrim