The Next War

[Sc@tterbrain 0]

I recently had to write a paper predicting the next regional war.  The guidelines were simple.  Each side had to have a standing army, thus excluding civil wars and internal tribal conflicts.

After thinking it over for a while, the final result was quite different than my first ideas.  The world is a big place, so don't limit your thinking to current conflict areas.

Please describe your predicted scenario and timetable, THAT IS ALL. You must write from a completely neutral position, only stating the facts of your scenario.

Please NO rebutle comments this is not a "political" discussion, just an exercise in examining the global climate.

[wex-q 0]

US vs China. Lots of tension, and now the US feels that China is using up way to much natural resources, so now it's time to invade and controll the country.

Of course, US gets pounded, cause of the size of the Chinese army, and also patriotic Chinese people living in the US, doing bad stuff in general, like polluting water with some superpoison the company they worked for has come up with.

Instead the Chinese take over the US and now we have another superpower, and Chinese becomes the international language, just that it takes so long for everyone to learn it, so the world becomes chaos and everyone nukes eachother, leading to the extinction of the human being.

Yeah, something like that...

[walker 0]

Hi All

Over Kazakhstan it will be the next war for oil. Who will fight on which side is any ones guess. Expect old alliance's to be broken.

It will begin as there is a change in government in that country but may start from a border incursion from one of its unstable neighbours. Probably caused by a third party to precipitate change in government when their interests are compromised.

World War III will begin with conventional forces.

Russia, China, EU, USA, and Middle East involved.  

All of those countries have an interest. Most have an expeditionary force and bases there on some pretext or other all paid for those bases, who they paid is an interesting matter to discuss. Either that or like China they have a large force sitting on its border. They are all also busy setting up Universities, NGOs, Trade Missions, News offices and strange little businesses there.

Everyone has agents there, guess where they are hiding. It is as bad as Mesopotamia and the North West Frontier in the British Raj Era, you trip over foreign agents going out your front door in Astana. People disapear. People die of accedents and unknown ilnesses. The great game is afoot and they are playing for keeps.

The place is powder-keg over a lake of oil and people are playing with matches over it.

Some such as the middle east and political and economic in other countries may want to sabotage output their in order to bolster the own economy and business interests.

It would be worth your while looking into the companies involved there. Some have strange histories.

Kind Regards walker

[kerosene 0]

US vs China. Lots of tension, and now the US feels that China is using up way to much natural resources, so now it's time to invade and controll the country.

Of course, US gets pounded, cause of the size of the Chinese army, and also patriotic Chinese people living in the US, doing bad stuff in general, like polluting water with some superpoison the company they worked for has come up with.

Instead the Chinese take over the US and now we have another superpower, and Chinese becomes the international language, just that it takes so long for everyone to learn it, so the world becomes chaos and everyone nukes eachother, leading to the extinction of the human being.

Yeah, something like that...

I hope this is a joke..

Yeah, CHINA's the one using too much of the worlds natural resources, this is a BS scenario on multiple levels.

--------

And I really doubt there will be a globabl war over Kazakstan and its gas. If China goes to war it will be over the resources in the South China Sea, which every nation in the region ahs a claim to.

THere are enough areas of disputed resources that your a lot more likley to see a number of smaller localised conflicts than a globabl war over one region.

[wex-q 0]

US vs China. Lots of tension, and now the US feels that China is using up way to much natural resources, so now it's time to invade and controll the country.

Of course, US gets pounded, cause of the size of the Chinese army, and also patriotic Chinese people living in the US, doing bad stuff in general, like polluting water with some superpoison the company they worked for has come up with.

Instead the Chinese take over the US and now we have another superpower, and Chinese becomes the international language, just that it takes so long for everyone to learn it, so the world becomes chaos and everyone nukes eachother, leading to the extinction of the human being.

Yeah, something like that...

I hope this is a joke..

Yeah, CHINA's the one using too much of the worlds natural resources, this is a BS scenario on multiple levels.

--------

Ah, c'mon. It could happen

[CG Man 0]

Israel vrs  Iran   US steps in and bombs all the Iran nuke sites Israil nukes Iran and Ejypt and Seria just in case.  The news channels are already planning this war before the US does as usual.

or

As usual the Islamic countries attack Israel first Israel retaliates with bombers then the Islamics complain that  Israel is cheating  and being the cause of the war.

[CsonkaPityu 0]

Israel vrs  Iran   US steps in and bombs all the Iran nuke sites Israil nukes Iran and Ejypt and Seria just in case.  The news channels are already planning this war before the US does as usual.

or

As usual the Islamic countries attack Israel first Israel retaliates with bombers then the Islamics complain that  Israel is cheating  and being the cause of the war.

Iran is way too far away from Israel and the iranians have bought some of these babies: http://www.defense-update.com/products/t/tor.htm

It detects stealth (not that that means much - even the Serbians detected stealth), can take down anti-radiation missles and has a 90-95% kill probability against aircraft.

That Tor M1 kicks anything western straight in the crotch.

[Monkwarrior 0]

Holland will invade Belgium.

Basicly it's a language struggle.

We will help the dutch speaking belgiums and therefore France will help the french speaking Belgiums.

So a land conflict between the armies of France and Holland might be iminent

Somewhere in that conflict our old colonies come in to help us: The ABC-islands will do a beachlanding in Normandy.

L'histoire se repait

Monk.

[4 IN 1 0]

for me i would put China on the lowest order, those ppl wont get that stupid to xcrew their "bright" future

[Commando84 0]

lol i dunno maybe something with China and taiwan? Or some place way off like south america? US going in for Cuba to try to get them down one last time...

But the whole Iran situation looks very much like the situation before the iraq crisis so i wouldn't be suprised if they made a move of some sort there. Just to make sure the iranians will be left in the stone age with no electicity and clean water , bomb 'em to ashes..

[canis lupus 20]

well the US fleet is growing by Iran, its still only sanctions, but who knows how long they can keep it like that, the way I see it, the only problem US has by going to war with Iran is that they will have a hard time getting support from Europe.

[-ZG-BUZZARD 0]

@ Commando84:

If any country would ever be "bombed back into the stone age" it would have had to have been Afghanistan after 9-11 - actually I'm still surprised that the U.S. didn't nuke it into the ground... Its economy is mostly drugs, the warlords don't want peace no matter who's in the government, so not too much would have been lost...

@ agamoth:

The U.S. went in against almost the entire world's oppinion - except for the british ally which had to follow its master by the leash... So I don't think lack of support would be an issue that would make the U.S. think twice about invading Iran if it wanted to do so...

Back on topic, one plausible conflict could be China - Russia, if China decided it would like to have any resources the russians have, and China has fitter armed forces than Russia I think... But then again, it would remain to be seen which one would be more ruthless...

[Dark_vityaz 0]

To attack Iran means US death...

[canis lupus 20]

how about US vs Europe, what would it take?

[sanctuary 19]

how about US vs Europe, what would it take?

I think it would take an incredible amount of idiots in command of both "sides", the USA nation and the multiple Europe nations.

Oh, it is already the case ?

I will begin to build my bunker as soon as possible in that case.

[kakagoegie 0]

Well lets see. I came up with 2 candidates:

1) A renewed conflict in the horn of africa. Perhaps Ethiopia and Eritrea will start fighting again, who knows? First Eritrean-Ethiopian War

2) A small clash between Georgia and Russia. Georgia will try to recapture south-Ossetia. Russian "peacekeepers" in south-Ossetia will respond and a small clash will occur before European intervention will make them sign a peace agreement. Georgian-Ossetian conlfict

edit: Sc@tterbrain, perhaps you can provide us with your paper. I'm really interested in a worked out example on this subject.

[kavoven 4]

China will try to resize Taiwan I think. Why? China is growing stronger and stronger, with a rising military budget and literally an unlimated supply of people. Europe will be quiet, as always, Russia won't care and the US won't risk a war with China by then.

(Well, I hope it won't come so far...)

[Commando84 0]

lol Sanc! you could name it "the sanctuary" too

[TrevorOfCrete 0]

Theres alot of unrealistic scenarios here involving China.  Instead im going to say where the next war wont be to try and disprove you war mongers

Iran - too much risk for all, wouldnt be a walkover for the US like Iraq, Iran has proffessional standing army, and its a Nice country if a member of the US goverment ever actually bovered to look past its government.  A significant properortion if Irans population are infact pro-western, stop listening to Murdoch and Fox news.

China - Growing economic power, Massive links with US and Europe in exports and Co-operate links.  China wont risk pissing of the USA, its economy would suffer massivly,  which is how it pays for its army,  which is another reason for no military action.  Its a cold war without a cold war, MAD if you will.

Russia - Too much to loose in international opinion.  There economy is based on energy resorces,  War with any European state would cripple its economy,  Its showed it can boss countries about using Energy as leverige, but its too smart not to push other countries to farr.  There would also be a huge US and EU backlash that Russia wouldnt dare risk (they like to look hard infront of the cameras but they know they rely on countries buying energy resorces off them for survival)

South America - Most of the corrupt dictarships funded by the US have been plugged, South America is essential Liberal Democratic with a nasty blend of organised gang culture.  Corrupt Goverment figures, but not corrupt goverment.  Infact South America is attempting to form a similar organisation to the EU for Economic and Political co-operation.

So the most likely war in the forseeable future is either in Africa, such as Ethipio and Eritrea, or Somalia and pro-western states such as Kenya

OR

A resumed conflict between Israel and Hezzballa, which itself seems increasing unlikely as Hezzballa have relocated away from the Border.

[-Snafu- 78]

Look, it's the USA that has lot's of money tied up in China not the other way round.

Anyway, a US - China war over Taiwan is a possibility but it all depends on China making the first move.

China has had Taiwan in it's sight for a long time, China claims it belongs to them and they have said they will take it by force if necessary.

While the US are promising to protect Taiwan's independence.

[TrevorOfCrete 0]

Look, it's the USA that has lot's of money tied up in China not the other way round.

Look at Chinas industy, its metal and plastic goods, alot for the USA and Europe, The USA has a lot of money in China, exactly.  Can you not see the disaster a war would cause between the two.  thats exactly why, currently, there is no possibility of war.  World ecaonomics is far too complicated for a war of this scale.  The world economy now compared to '14 and '39 (for example) is so bigger and countries so much more dependable on each other for survival. Without the USA chinas economy would be devistated, Hell, without the Chinease economy the USA's economy would slip into unreversable recession.

[kavoven 4]

Look, it's the USA that has lot's of money tied up in China not the other way round.

Look at Chinas industy, its metal and plastic goods, alot for the USA and Europe, The USA has a lot of money in China, exactly. Can you not see the disaster a war would cause between the two. thats exactly why, currently, there is no possibility of war. World ecaonomics is far too complicated for a war of this scale. The world economy now compared to '14 and '39 (for example) is so bigger and countries so much more dependable on each other for survival. Without the USA chinas economy would be devistated, Hell, without the Chinease economy the USA's economy would slip into unreversable recession.

I read a bock regarding these economical relations between countries and the author set up a so called "McDonalds-Theory". It says that countrys, in which you can find McDonalds, never fought a war against each other.

You can easily expand this theory by just moving to a larger scale

[Spokesperson 0]

Yea, so lets build Mc-Donaldses in every country in the world and we'll have peace forever...

I doubt it has to do anything with McDonalds or trade. Besides McDonalds is quite new and its establishment in most countries in the world is quite recent too. No western country has fought another western country since World War 2. Why? Because there's no reason.

Btw that theory is easy to prove wrong. Just take a look at Pakistan and India.

War is not the only way to make life harder for enemies. The US have used their economic strength in order to destabilize enemies. One only has to look at Chile with Allende, Nicaragua with Ortega or Cuba.

I doubt China needs an armed conflict in order to cause havoc. The Chinese reserve of dollars is enough to break the whole US economy. And with it the US-dependant stock-exchanges throughout the world. Sure China would suffer problems too, but it's not they who have a deficit.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn....pf.html

[madrussian 347]

Interesting, all the scenarios mentioned involving head on conflict between two nuclear powers (save North Korea).

I have no doubt of future proxy wars, but never the Mutually Assured Destruction.  Difficult to even imagine, really.

Now, a mad rouge general splitting off his forces, getting control of a nuke, and then launching an invasion on a small chain of islands?  Ya never know....

Thank god there's guys like James Gastovski out there!

[TrevorOfCrete 0]

Look, it's the USA that has lot's of money tied up in China not the other way round.

Look at Chinas industy, its metal and plastic goods, alot for the USA and Europe, The USA has a lot of money in China, exactly.  Can you not see the disaster a war would cause between the two.  thats exactly why, currently, there is no possibility of war.  World ecaonomics is far too complicated for a war of this scale.  The world economy now compared to '14 and '39 (for example) is so bigger and countries so much more dependable on each other for survival.  Without the USA chinas economy would be devistated, Hell, without the Chinease economy the USA's economy would slip into unreversable recession.

I read a bock regarding these economical relations between countries and the author set up a so called "McDonalds-Theory". It says that countrys, in which you can find McDonalds, never fought a war against each other.

You can easily expand this theory by just moving to a larger scale

well in a time frame yes thats true, but lets not forget the USA has had wars with Britian, Germany, Italy, Mexico and Japan, all who have Mcdonalds, but post '45 then its true.