The Dogs of War

[Jinef 2]

Well i'm a flight lieutenant so i don't get very well informed, i'm just sitting here doing nowt.

I hope there aren't any more FF incidents. Any news on the 2 guys in the Tornado the Americans decided to shoot at?

[WhoCares 0]

The founder of the thread didn't say, that it is bound only to the current events. I think it is okay, to do some (subjective) analyses and estimations, as long as it sticks to strategy and tactic.

btw: globalsecurity.org has some nice maps of the region in general and of what is going on.

Me playing general, I would assume that the 1st Division is supposed to go up to those two lakes west of Baghdad. This would keep their back free. They would cross the Euphrates at Al Mussayyib and Al Fallujah.

The Marines cross the Euphrates where they are stuck now at An Nasiriya, advancing between Euphrates and Tigris to the south of Bagdad.

The Brits were supposed to take Basra and then heading north on the east bank of the Tigris to Al Amarah and on to the east of Baghdad. If they keep stuck at Basra or get stuck at Al Amarah, the Marines might cross the Tigris at Al Kut to open a front at the east of Baghdad.

[Tex -USMC- 0]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (Oligo @ Mar. 24 2003,14:25)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">It is amazing how efficiently Iraqis have managed to defend their country so far. I'll probably have to somewhat revise my estimates of what would happen if Russia ever attacked Finland again.<span id='postcolor'>

Efficiently? Granted, it isn't a total rout, but I would have to say that currently Iraq is far from winning or even stalemating against the Coalition forces. Here's what Iraq has going for it right now:

1) They're on the defensive, and as such have the luxury of picking where battles take place, whether that be in the desert or in the cities.

2) They've resorted to relying on irreglar units sacrificing themselves to slow down the reduction and consolidation of Basra, Nasirieah(sp?), and Umm Qasr. This will work for a few days, but these groups are being far too aggressive, considering the forces arrayed against them, and the majority will be either prisoners or corpses within a week. Remember, this is not Vietnam- there is no jungle to melt back into, just a whole lot of desert.

3) They're obviously concentrating the bulk of their armor and AA around Baghdad and just south of Baghdad, which means the 3ID's advance will be slowed considerably inside the next 24-48 hours. Depending on the next few engagements, the 3ID will either be in a position to begin the encirclement of Baghdad, or they will be stopped cold by effective Iraqi resistance just outside of Baghdad (Moscow circa '41, anyone?).

4) Their willingness to resort to the less than savory tactics of using the citizenry as bullet shields. We knew it would happen, but that doesn't make it any easier to deal with and still have some Iraqi civilians left alive post-war.

5) They have a numerical advantage, which, though it is somewhat negated by dispersing forces into irregular units behind Coalition lines, is still a problem around Baghdad, where the bulk of RG units are located.

I can't say I put alot of stock into the pictures of the POWs- obviously they aren't being treated well, but ultimately it is insignificant as far as the strategic picture is concerned. Ultimately, what happened is that the Iraqis went up against our best... mechanics, and managed to take a couple captive. No big deal, except that some Americans are complete pansies and didn't know that war is hell. And despite the continued resistance in places like Umm Qasr, the overwhelming firepower of the Coalition forces in these situations dictates that it is only a matter of time before these pockets are reduced. 50 guys with AK47s may be resisting, but that doesn't mean their resistance will earn them anything but death. The Coalition's overall methodical approach to urban combat no doubt has as much to do with the large amount of time taken against these pockets as anything else. Remember that firefight the other day in Umm Qasr? It took all day to resolve, and ultimately it turned out it was just a busload of Iraqis, but guess how many Marines got killed? None. That sort of thing delays progress, but ultimately it won't change the outcome if our political leadership keeps its stomach. Considering we are less than half a week into hostilities, I'd say we're doing incredibly well.

It seems that CentCom had alot more riding on that northern front than previously planned, and it certainly shows. Now we're trying to conduct shoestring special ops strikes to take airfields in the north, and of all places we try to do this... Kirkuk? Probably the second-best defended area in all of Iraq? I mean seriously, raise your hand if you didn't think there'd be an RG unit protecting Saddam's hometown.

Alot of people have been spoiled by the past 20 years of American conflicts. Now we're in the first real honest-to-God war since Vietnam (excepting GW1- sort of), and people are wondering why soldiers are dying and getting captured? And we're not even a week into the thing yet! About the only really serious concerns that the Coalition should have right now are the logistics problem and the lack of reserves. Fix these two things and suddenly your drive on Baghdad will go better, your hearts and minds campaign will get a shot in the arm, and the pockets of resistance in Basra etc. will fall. And all the Coalition needs to fix those two problems is a little time.

[joltan 0]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (Jinef @ Mar. 24 2003,17:57)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">Well i'm a flight lieutenant so i don't get very well informed, i'm just sitting here doing nowt.

I hope there aren't any more FF incidents. Any news on the 2 guys in the Tornado the Americans decided to shoot at?<span id='postcolor'>

As far as I gathered they didn't make it...

[Badgerboy 0]

Damn, just found out that I knew one of the pilots on one of the AEW Seakings thatwent down.

He flew with one of my old instructors, and gave a talk at the base a while back....

[CosmicCastaway 0]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (Jinef @ Mar. 24 2003,17:57)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">I hope there aren't any more FF incidents. Any news on the 2 guys in the Tornado the Americans decided to shoot at?<span id='postcolor'>

They've been confirmed dead.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/2878565.stm

[Jinef 2]

My condolences, hmm this war is not nice after all.

[nolips71 0]

my condolences to the familes and freinds of the tornado crew. thats one less tornado interupting the teachers talking at school (another bad point)

[Tex -USMC- 0]

The Red Cross just published a report of civilian casualties in Baghdad during the bombing, and I'm trying to find a link to it now. Apparently it reports that civilian loss of life in Baghdad has been incredibly small, despite the heavy bombing.

[theavonlady 2]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (Tex [uSMC] @ Mar. 24 2003,20:10)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">The Red Cross just published a report of civilian casualties in Baghdad during the bombing, and I'm trying to find a link to it now. Apparently it reports that civilian loss of life in Baghdad has been incredibly small, despite the heavy bombing.<span id='postcolor'>

This is the latest I could find on their site:

http://www.icrc.org/Web....0618147

BTW, avoiding civilian casualties is one of the reason attributed to the retreat of several dozen Apaches in yesterday's fight. See this New York Times article.

[E6Hotel 0]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (interstat @ Mar. 24 2003,12:16)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">4) As we can see from Um Qasr this morning, the Americans have given up, and having to get the Paras and Royal Marines to do the real work in successfully clearing out towns of resistance.<span id='postcolor'>

*turns civility regulator to maximum power*

1)  The plan all along was to capture objectives and leave Royal Marines behind to hold them.  Leaving a MEU(SOC) in Umm Qasr to mop up a handful of die-hards is like swatting flies with a Buick.

2)  When we leave an objective it's because the fight's over, or we're needed somewhere else.  If you think 10 KIA makes a difference to us, all I can say is that you have a poor grasp of our history and absolutely no understanding of the Marine mindset (whether that's a good thing or not I'll leave to you).  We lose that many a month in peacetime to traffic accidents.  

Semper Fi

[Guest]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (E6Hotel @ Mar. 24 2003,19:45)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">2)  When we leave an objective it's because the fight's over, or we're needed somewhere else.  If you think 10 KIA makes a difference to us, all I can say is that you have a poor grasp of our history and absolutely no understanding of the Marine mindset (whether that's a good thing or not I'll leave to you).  We lose that many a month in peacetime to traffic accidents.  <span id='postcolor'>

10 KIAs or 100 KIAs or even 1000 KIAs makes little difference to the military directly, but it makes a big difference to the tax payers that finance this little endevour. It matters to the politicians who want to be re-elected. Show ten dead bodies of American kids (soldiers) every day and you'll be out of business after a couple of weeks. Since it is politically significant it becomes significant for the military too.

I mean when your secretay of defence goes on TV and comments on two possibly lost pilots, then you know you're fucked. A military that can't take casualties, can't win.

[Guest]

A massive explosion has reportedly been heard near a US military base in Bahrain. -BBC

[Die Alive 0]

Poland's GROM Commando unit has entered combat in Iraq. - Reuters

-=Die Alive=-

[MLF 0]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (denoir @ Mar. 24 2003,20:21)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">A massive explosion has reportedly been heard near a US military base in Bahrain. -BBC<span id='postcolor'>

was outside of the Naval Base.

[IsthatyouJohnWayne 0]

There are a myriad of Iraqi security and intelligence units many of which are again subdivided into political, administrative, military etc.

The Special Security and intelligence forces are integrated into into Iraqi defence at the higher levels looking for any signs of disloyalty in the highest echelon of the army or RG.

One of the General Security forces jobs is to search for dissent in the civilian population and report or deal with it and it has self evidently done this well ,becoming an all pervading fact of iraqi civilian life both in baghdad and in the regions.  They will be especially vigilant during times of war.

Military Intelligence are active in the officer corps again searching for disloyalty and have alledgedly been involved in many foreign assasinations. They are known to have recieved training from the KGB in the eighties as have other Iraqi security forces who are known to use a lot of soviet techniques.

Military Security (originally part of mil. int.) was created by Saddam specifically to monitor, detect and counter disloyalty in the military. It is active in ensuring the unquestioning loyalty of all officers and infiltrating the ranks with fear.

The ba'ath party organises local militias and has its own party security force ensuring party loyalty to Saddam

Saddam has infiltrated the clans and destroyed those who show disloyalty to him.

Clan and ba'ath party loyalists are active all throughout Iraqi society in prominent postions, always looking for dissent against Saddam Hussein and the party.

Then there is the Saddam Fedayeen and its youth wing something like 'Saddam scouts', similarities to the Hitler youth are numerous.

a bbc article about the Fedayeen

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2881889.stm

There are plenty of articles about these forces and small elements of republican guard being involved in the current fighting or at least increasing indications of such. I can post some if people dont believe it. Indeed it would be a bizarre oversight by Saddam if they were not involved.

Given all of this and Saddams previous record of brutal repression i was not surprised NOT to see overwhelming jubilation on the streets of Iraq.

If you combine the fear created by all of these agencies with their involvement in the fighting ,and the real determination by some proud loyalists to repel foreign invaders then i believe one can reach a reasonable explaination of what we are currently seeing.

Of course it is possible (and likely) that some average Iraqis

including civilians have been seduced by their regimes propaganda and harbour a genuine dislike or hatred of those invading. This is especially true of those with a vested interest in the Saddam regime, but this is relevant now only in as much as it has an effect on the campaign. I believe that effect has so far been generally minimal.

[IsthatyouJohnWayne 0]

The explosion in Bahrain has been reported now as a 'false alarm'

The effect of POWS and casualties may have a detrimental effect on public morale in a war over time (it depends on the situation) but in the short term it can sometimes provide a boost, and indeed now that its got serious and service personel have died, public for the war has increased significantly (according to some polls very dramatically)

It wont last forever but if the coalition can get the war over in a matter of weeks then it should be enough.

[IsthatyouJohnWayne 0]

BBC-US missile 'kills five Syrians'

according to the Syrian news agency there were hit just inside the Iraqi border

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2881119.stm

[theavonlady 2]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (IsthatyouJohnWayne @ Mar. 24 2003,22:46)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">BBC-US missile 'kills five Syrians'

according to the Syrian news agency there were hit just inside the Iraqi border

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2881119.stm<span id='postcolor'>

That was much earlier today. The Syrians were apparently on their way, evacuating back to Syria.

In contrast, we have reports here of busloads of Syrian on their way to Iraq to volunteer and fight for Saddam.

[Othin 0]

Regarding the Syrians,

During the Pentagon brief (on now) they confirmed the destruction of the bus and said it happened when they were destroying a bridge. The bombs were in air as the bus showed up.

[theavonlady 2]

Why it's been relatively quiet today. (Jerusalem Post subscribers only).

[theavonlady 2]

Captured pilots on Iraqi TV.

[PitViper 0]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (brgnorway @ Mar. 24 2003,07:57)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">So, basically - US choses to follow the Geneva-convention only when it SUITS their own purposes.<span id='postcolor'>

you don't understand the Geneva convention. Geneva Convention only applies to uniformed forces with established chains of command.

The question regarding the Al Qaeda is they are not uniformed and don't report to any particular national entity. Whether or not they are covered under the Geneva convention is the main question.

[IsthatyouJohnWayne 0]

The alternative to my above possible explaination of events is that Saddam attempting now to rouse public opinion to his support and create a popular national uprising might succeed and convince the Iraqi people that the devil you know is better than the foreign devil you dont in which case this could go to the dogs.

[PitViper 0]

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td>Quote (interstat @ Mar. 24 2003,07:46)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">Come on, is firing Nuclear Depleted Uranium shells against the Geneva convention?<span id='postcolor'>

perhaps you could tell me where it is. and, just in case you are ignorant, DU are not nuclear weapons.