Russian ( Armed Forces ) harassment of the Nordics.

[mistyronin 1181]

These last months Russia has been increasing a lot the tests of the Nordics defenses ( specially the neutrals: Sweden and Finland ), first they focused in air incursions, now they are also naval.

Here the cases reported this October:

( Yle, in English ) Defence Minister: Russia must be held accountable for harassment in international waters

( Yle, in English )Two belated reports of Russian warship interference with Finnish research vessel at sea

( Sverige Radio, Radio Sweden ) Sweden scrambled jets over Baltic

Obviously that's causing the Nordics to plan joint defense and even considering joining NATO ( the support to join NATo has skyrocket since the Russian Invasion of Crimea ) :

( Yle, in English ) Sweden and Finland plan joint airspace surveillance

Finnish and Swedish defence ministers are pushing for more intense Nordic defence cooperation to watch over both countries’ skies. The goal is to prevent possible airspace violations against the backdrop of a number of recent incursions by Russian aircraft.

Edited October 11, 2014 by MistyRonin

[mistyronin 1181]

Now also submarine incursions close to the Swedish Capital.

( Al Jazeera ) Sweden probes 'foreign underwater activity'

[drebin052 324]

"We didn't know we had sailed 15km into Swedish waters!"

Then again it's perhaps a bit to early to say that it's a Russian sub for sure.

[Brisse 78]

Remembered this thread when I read the news this morning and was going to post about the ongoing submarine hunt in the Stockholm archipelago, but I see MistyRonin beat me too it by a few hours!

Reminds me of this incident: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_S-363

The situation is defenitly a bit tense compared to a year ago. As someone living on an island in the south east of Sweden, I have noticed the increased military activity. I can hear fighter jets (most of whom are probably doing interceptions above baltic sea) almost every day, something which was not that common a year ago.

[Brisse 78]

The armed forces just had a press conference where they say the search continues, and more units are being sent to the area.

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/forsvarsmakten-utokar-insatsen/

---------- Post added at 16:07 ---------- Previous post was at 15:25 ----------

Illustration that shows the area of the ongoing operation:

[oxmox 73]

Obviously that's causing the Nordics to plan joint defense and even considering joining NATO

Maybe a tactic to play the trumpet so they have a reason to join NATO and to convience people and such activities are not new ?

Finland was aswell a *hot* area for espionage in the cold war even the country was neutral. Did you guys hear anything about espionage activities in the news.

Edited October 18, 2014 by oxmox

[Brisse 78]

We recently had elections in Sweden, and the new government does not want to become NATO member, so that seems unlikely.

[mistyronin 1181]

Here in Finland most of people was strongly against it until last year after the events in Crimea and the recent incursions.

Before the idea was more a Sweden-Finland alliance. Now after the Russian stunts, the option to join NATO has increase its popularity.

[surpher 1]

(The Local) Sweden hunts damaged Russian sub: report

A Russian mayday call prompted Sweden's hunt for "foreign underwater activity" in the Stockholm archipelago, newspaper Svenska Dagbladet (SvD) reports.

Edited October 18, 2014 by surpher

[Cyper 18]

According to the news media ''Aftonbladet'', the operation in Stockholm is about finding a damaged, russian submarine. At least that's what the retired commander Göran Frisk is convinced off. According to the retired Commander Göran Frisk, it will be found sooner or later and when it is, the forces have permission to open fire - unless the sub actually is damaged. They are navy are using HMS Visby at the moment (http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/visby/)

(http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article19719213.ab)

Edited October 18, 2014 by Cyper

[Brisse 78]

The russian tanker NS Concord, has now conveniently set their course back to the east and even turned their AIS off at 22.53 (UTC+1).

This tanker has been acting suspiciously these last few days, and may have been used as a mothership for russian mini-subs and special forces according to SvD.

[beastcat 14]

Meanwhile at Russia Today

RT - Sweden deploys troops near Stockholm due to alleged underwater threat

They wrote a 400 word article and didn't mention once that its most likely a russian submarine.

He spoke only about certain underwater foreign activity, without mentioning any submarines.

I guess its just a big angry (not) russian wale.

The first time Russia is mentioned in the article is at the very end

The suspected incident comes a month after Swedish authorities accused Russian jets of violating the country’s airspace. According to Sweden’s armed forces, two Russian SU24 fighter-bombers were detected flying over the country in September.

I guess this is pretty much a confession by russia.

[Brisse 78]

The search still goes on. No weapons fired yet as far as what you read in the online newspapers. It is not known wheter it is a search and rescue mission or if it's a submarine hunt. I guess that not even the armed forces know that, it depends on what they find really. Permission to use deadly force was granted during the early stages of the operation though.

I have seen some theories of what is happening. This is the one that seems most likely to me (although still just speculation):

Swedish and Dutch Navies announce joint exercise in Stockholm area.

Russia ses opportunity to make acoustic recordings of the Dutch surface and sub-surface vessels. Much easier to do this in Stockholm archipelago, than in the very busy shipping lanes of Rotterdam.

Russian oil tanker NS Concord is used as mothership for mini-submarines and special forces.

NS Concord reaches Swedish economic zone outside Stockholm at wednesday and deploys mini-submarines.

Mini-submarines reach Stockholm archipelago and start to gather acoustic data.

Something goes wrong with one of the mini-submarines, and it is forces to temporarily surface to send a distress signal.

Swedish signal intelligence, listens to russian emergency radio channel and pinpoint two transponders used during the mayday call. One is in Stockholm archipelago, the other is in Kaliningrad.

Someone spots the submarine on the surface while it is making emergency call and contacts the Swedish armed forces.

The search or hunt begins late friday evening.

When news about the NS Concord came out at saturday evening, the NS Concord turn off their AIS and set their course east.

If this is true then what will happen in the near future?

-Russians stay silent on the bottom of the sea and dies of hypothermia or asphyxiation.

-Russians surrender and let themselves be captured by Swedish armed forces.

-Russians left the sub and moved ashore during the night

-Russians somehow manage to escape

-Swedish navy find the submarine. Two things can happen here. Either it becomes a rescue mission (more likely), or the submarine will be destroyed (less likely).

Edit: With the Swedish armed forces now denying there was a distress signal, this theory seems less likely. When asked wheter they intercepted any kind of Russian radio message, they decline to answer.

Edited October 19, 2014 by Brisse

[surpher 1]

NS Concord's course.

[Tonci87 163]

Wouldn´t be the first tragic fuckup by the Russian navy where they only admit it when it is already way too late...

[Brisse 78]

At least 15 ships of the Swedish Navy is now involved in the search.

If there is a russian mini-submarine, then this is what it might look like:

[Tonci87 163]

At least 15 ships of the Swedish Navy is now involved in the search.

If there is a russian mini-submarine, then this is what it might look like:

http://i57.tinypic.com/14lugeq.jpg

It actually looks like a half sunken boat ^^

I hope that if there really is an emergency the guys get out alive...

[Brisse 78]

It actually looks like a half sunken boat ^^

It's probably partially submersed to make it harder to spot. Here you can se picture of same type of boat in surfaced mode. These boats are called Triton-NN and were apperantly delivered in 2010 to russian special forces in Kaliningrad.

https://oplatsen.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/20120210-225641.jpg (113 kB)

These pictures were taken during testing in 2008. The boat is capable of carrying 10 divers/soldiers and is rumored to be very fast in surfaced mode. 30-40 knots.

---------- Post added at 13:21 ---------- Previous post was at 11:50 ----------

A picture was taken by a civillian earlier today, of an unknown man in black clothes in the water's of Stockholm archipelago. A search for this man was initiated by Säpo and Must. Possible crewmember of Russian mini-sub? http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/sapo-och-must-jagar-vadande-man/

It has also come up in the news that the Russian oil tanker is 100% owned by the Russian state and it has been idle for 5 months prior to these events, which is very unusual for a commercial vessel. The owner is the shipping concern Sovcomflot (through Novoship) and the vd is Sergej Frank whom actually can be connected to Putin, and is former minister of transport in a Putin lead government in the early 2000's.

Swedish journalists who spotted the ship from the air says the ship is floating high in the water which means it is not carrying any significant amount of cargo.

Edited October 19, 2014 by Brisse

[surpher 1]

Ship to keep an eye on 'PROFESSOR LOGACHEV' ( Research/Survey Vessel)

NS Concord is back online.

Edited October 19, 2014 by surpher

[Brisse 78]

Ship to keep an eye on 'PROFESSOR LOGACHEV' ( Research/Survey Vessel)

Dutch navy is closely following the Logachev with military ships HNLMS Zeeland, HNLMS Evertsen and HNLMS Amsterdam.

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/ryskt-forskningsfartyg-satte-fart-fran-st-petersburg/

[Brisse 78]

Swedish armed forces will have another press conference in five minutes. Those who speak Swedish can follow it live here: Press conference ended, link removed

---------- Post added at 17:24 ---------- Previous post was at 16:56 ----------

Very interesting press conference. short summary of what they said:

The operation will go on, possibly for several days.

It has been moved further south.

It is likely that foreign underwater activity is taking place

They have observed a pattern in the area spanning several years of suspected foreign activity that backs up the new information they recently recieved

The area is of interest to a foreign country

Three independent observations have been reported

The observers have been asked to make sketches of the observed object and they all point to the same thing

One observer even photographed the object. The picture was presented during the press conference.

They deny that they overheard a Russian mayday, but when asked wheter they have overheard radio communication, they do not want to answer.

http://www.forsvarsmakten.se/siteassets/6-aktuellt/bild1.jpg (17044 kB)

Edited October 19, 2014 by Brisse

[virtualvikingx 19]

Excellent report, Brisse. Do anyone know where the picture is taken?

[mistyronin 1181]

Quite predictable but:

( BBC ) Russia denies submarine incident off Sweden

[ProfTournesol 956]

Russia denying presence of its troops is a kind of hobby now.

[Tonci87 163]

I can´t believe that Russian soldiers aren´t pissed about all this...

They send you off into a foreign country and if you ask them what happens if something goes wrong and you get killed or captured they basically say "Well then you are fucked. We´ll all be like: Nope, never seen that guy, have fun with him"