Russian ( Armed Forces ) harassment of the Nordics.

[Brisse 78]

The man on the picture has been found and identified. Turns out to be a local who was fishing. Not exactly Специальное назначение by any means.

http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article19727377.ab

[oxmox 73]

Swedish Military did set public on the wrong track

Search for the phantom submarine

Where is the russian phantom submarine close to Stockholm ?

The search is so secret, with the result the swedish military is misleading the public with wrong location informations - which leaks out.

The Netherlands struggle against the blame from Moscow.

The swedish military did intentional release false informations about the location where the submarine was sighted. The forces did admit the released image , which they did release in this incident, was photographed on a different location.

The military didnt want to release the exact postion to avoid any advantage for the foe, was the clarification on the website of the swedish military.

Three independently eye witnesses die report about a surfaced and submerged object.

-->The newspaper "Svenska Dagbladet" did report on the weekend that several radio messages were located in the area of the Skerry close to Stockholm, among them an SOS in russian language.

The swedish military did not want to confirm the report

http://www.n-tv.de/politik/Schwedisches-Militaer-legte-falsche-Faehrte-article13815351.html

Reading more articles from the last days I noticed that only the media itself is reporting about a "russian submarine", either the military or the government did mention it. Officially they talk about "foreign underwater activities". That does not mean it could be not a russian submarine, but these are only suspicions by none officials so far.

Edited October 21, 2014 by oxmox

[Amra 10]

This thread reminded me this:

[Brisse 78]

RIA Novosti is claiming the operation has now ended without any success. This is very strange since there have been no such reports in Sweden and we can see on live TV that it is still very much in progress.

http://ria.ru/radio_brief/20141021/1029395751.html

Earlier today NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA F-16 jets scrambled to intercept RU Armed Forces Il-20 over the Baltic Sea. I guess the Russians want to listen to Swedish radio communication, but this probably failed thanks to our baltic friends.

[Tonci87 163]

My guess is that if they haven´t found anything until now, they won´t. This was enough time to evacuate anybody in that area...

[surpher 1]

Looks like the NS Concord is on the way to Primorsk (RU).

[Brisse 78]

The area is of blocked off though. Escaping would be extremely dangerous. A sub may be lying silently, resting on the bottom of the sea, waiting for the Swedes to abort the search. As long as that possibility exists, which can be weeks, the search has to go on.

Swedish armed forces will have another press conference at 1800 UTC+1.

[Tonci87 163]

Looks like the NS Concord is on the way to Primorsk (RU).

What, without taking any cargo? What a huge surprise that is......

[Brisse 78]

Interesting that the Russian's claim that the operation ended, about the same time as the NS Concord set sail. I wonder if there's a mini-sub inside one of the cargo-tanks :)

---------- Post added at 16:08 ---------- Previous post was at 15:50 ----------

Short summary of the press conference that started 18:00:

"Two more credible observations have been made today."

"The operation will continue."

"This is not a submarine hunt at this point, it's an intelligence gathering operation"

"It is certain that a foreign power have conducted underwater activity in Stockholm archipelago."

Edited October 21, 2014 by Brisse

[Tonci87 163]

In other words: The sub escaped and we´ll now try to figure out how they did it.

[ProfTournesol 956]

"It is certain that a foreign power have conducted underwater activity in Stockholm archipelago."

Certainly the Dutch navy trying to find out how on Earth someone can drink aquavit.

In other words: The sub escaped and we´ll now try to figure out how they did it.

That's a James Bond movie in RL :)

[surpher 1]

(Reuters) NATO, Swedish fighters scrambled to intercept Russian plane

NATO and Swedish fighter jets were scrambled to intercept a Russian intelligence-gathering plane that briefly entered Estonian airspace on Tuesday, the alliance said on Wednesday.

Today:

(BBC) Sweden submarine search called off

In a statement, the military said (in Swedish): "This means the bulk of ships and amphibious forces have returned to port." It added that some smaller units would remain in the area.

Edited October 24, 2014 by surpher

[oxmox 73]

Sweden calls off hunt for submarine

Whatever was there could not have been a conventional submarine, Grenstad said..

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/24/sweden-calls-off-hunt-submarine-stockholm-archipelago

[Brisse 78]

In oxmox link it says: "Our assessment is that in the inner archipelago there was a plausible foreign underwater operation,†Rear Adm Anders Grenstad said."

That translation is not 100% accurate. What he said in Swedish was not "plausible" but "very likely". The meaning of those words are similar but not the same. Just wanted all our non Swedish friends on the forums to know that :)

I would also want to give a big FU** *OU to the Swedish media who has done an incredibly bad job, spreading unconfirmed rumours and speculation, which people have misinterpreted in hundreds of ways. Most people seem to have no idea what the armed forces were actually doing and why, and now everyone is making up conspiracy theories. Most people consider this operation a big failure. Personally I thank my friends in the navy involved, and consider it a partial success because we do actually know more now, than we did before. It was after all, an intelligence gathering operation, and intelligence was gathered, even though some questions still go unanswered.

[oxmox 73]

The problem was the media in general not only in Sweden, they did spread the infos about a "russian submarine". The officials, if from the military or the government did not use such words - it was always about a "foreign underwater operation". They did probably suspect them, but not with official statements.

So, will this case have a political influence in Sweden in form of "higher defence spending" or about NATO ?

Our military and government in germany is suddenly under pressure about more defence spending.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By the way when it comes to submarines and the cold war, is the book known in Sweden and the writer reputeable ?

"In 1980, 8% of the Swedes viewed the Soviet Union as a direct threat and 33% considered the Soviets as hostile. After a stranded Soviet submarine in 1981 and primarily after a dramatic anti-submarine operation in 1982 with midget submarines inside Swedish naval bases, these figures changed to 42% and 83% respectively,[18] which forced Sweden to deep-freeze its Soviet ties.

However, in the 1990s, Tunander was told by U.S. and British officials that these operations were run by the U.S. and the U.K.

Tunander argued that Soviet submarines might very well have entered Swedish waters, but the more visible operations were most likely PSYOPs decided by a U.S. "deception operation committee" chaired by CIA Director William Casey, and some of them were run by a CIA-Navy liaison office, National Underwater Reconnaissance Office, headed by Secretary of Navy John Lehman."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ola_Tunander

http://books.google.de/books?id=cN-ETroO0zEC&pg=PA1&hl=de&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=3#v=onepage&q&f=false

Edited October 24, 2014 by oxmox

[mistyronin 1181]

Well in this case it's not completely confirmed from where the submarine was, but all the other cases in these last months, Russian ships trying to ram Finnish Navy ships, Russian jets and bombers penetrating inside the Swedish and the Finnish airspace confirm the new Kremlin's policies ( you can also add the military invasions in Georgia and Ukraine... ).

[Brisse 78]

I don't think it will have political influence. The new government just recently released their new budget proposal, but this is based on work that has been going on for months, and it was pretty much done before this incident. Defence spending is slightly (very little) increased in the budget proposal. According to many experts it is not nearly enough, but as always, there has to be some kind of compromise. Navy officials stated again and again during the operation that "we have the resources that we need for this particular operation" and yet, the media fails to mention that, so conspiracy theories are growing where people think it was all a trick by the armed forces to gain opinion for more spending. Way to many people (both inside and outside the armed forces, and government in general) were involved to cover something like that up. The timing is wrong too, since the budget is more or less done.

A slight majority still wants to stay out of NATO, although we already have close cooperation but there are still a lot of people who thinks NATO is the only way to go. The ones who do not want NATO, instead want close cooperation with Finland. We are already close to Finland but there are talks about the need to create even tighter cooperation and maybe even some formal alliance. Finland and Sweden's defensive interests are very much the same it seems.

Yes, Tunander is a trustworthy source in my opinion, and there are some likely (but not conclusive) evidence that NATO submarines infiltrated Swedish territorial waters during the cold war. One NATO submarine may even have been damaged by depth charges.

[Tonci87 163]

The problem was the media in general not only in Sweden, they did spread the infos about a "russian submarine". The officials, if from the military or the government did not use such words - it was always about a "foreign underwater operation". They did probably suspect them, but not with official statements.

So, will this case have a political influence in Sweden in form of "higher defence spending" or about NATO ?

Our military and government in germany is suddenly under pressure about more defence spending.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By the way when it comes to submarines and the cold war, is the book known in Sweden and the writer reputeable ?

"In 1980, 8% of the Swedes viewed the Soviet Union as a direct threat and 33% considered the Soviets as hostile. After a stranded Soviet submarine in 1981 and primarily after a dramatic anti-submarine operation in 1982 with midget submarines inside Swedish naval bases, these figures changed to 42% and 83% respectively,[18] which forced Sweden to deep-freeze its Soviet ties.

However, in the 1990s, Tunander was told by U.S. and British officials that these operations were run by the U.S. and the U.K.

Tunander argued that Soviet submarines might very well have entered Swedish waters, but the more visible operations were most likely PSYOPs decided by a U.S. "deception operation committee" chaired by CIA Director William Casey, and some of them were run by a CIA-Navy liaison office, National Underwater Reconnaissance Office, headed by Secretary of Navy John Lehman."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ola_Tunander

http://books.google.de/books?id=cN-ETroO0zEC&pg=PA1&hl=de&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=3#v=onepage&q&f=false

To be fair Germany isn´t under pressure to increase military spending because of the Russians, but because everything is litterally falling apart and people in the military have seen this coming for decades. Currently even Croatia has a bigger working airforce than Germany, and that is pretty piss poor when you think about it. :j:

[oxmox 73]

I don't think it will have political influence. The new government just recently released their new budget proposal, but this is based on work that has been going on for months, and it was pretty much done before this incident. Defence spending is slightly (very little) increased in the budget proposal. According to many experts it is not nearly enough, but as always, there has to be some kind of compromise. Navy officials stated again and again during the operation that "we have the resources that we need for this particular operation" and yet, the media fails to mention that, so conspiracy theories are growing where people think it was all a trick by the armed forces to gain opinion for more spending. Way to many people (both inside and outside the armed forces, and government in general) were involved to cover something like that up. The timing is wrong too, since the budget is more or less done.

A slight majority still wants to stay out of NATO, although we already have close cooperation but there are still a lot of people who thinks NATO is the only way to go. The ones who do not want NATO, instead want close cooperation with Finland. We are already close to Finland but there are talks about the need to create even tighter cooperation and maybe even some formal alliance. Finland and Sweden's defensive interests are very much the same it seems.

Yes, Tunander is a trustworthy source in my opinion, and there are some likely (but not conclusive) evidence that NATO submarines infiltrated Swedish territorial waters during the cold war. One NATO submarine may even have been damaged by depth charges.

Alright, thank you for your comment on this.

It was just interested to hear about the general political situation after this incident but it did come also in my mind after reading the following in the book: "The submarine incidents made it possible to increase the Swedish military budget and direct public opinion against the Soviet threat"

But you cleared up whats going on.

To be fair Germany isn´t under pressure to increase military spending because of the Russians, but because everything is litterally falling apart and people in the military have seen this coming for decades. Currently even Croatia has a bigger working airforce than Germany, and that is pretty piss poor when you think about it.

This is true, germany has quiete a low defecit spending in relation to the GDP and their gear is often outdated. They had several incidents which are actually embarrasing i.e. faulty planes and the need to make a stopover.

But in general, Rasmussen did demand from the whole EU countries a higher deficit spending and this due to the conflict in the Ukraine and the threat of russia like he mentioned aswell.

Edited October 25, 2014 by oxmox

[Brisse 78]

I think the defence spending might increase more in the next budget (budget proposals are made once a year). That will however not be based solely on the recent underwater incident. There are many other recent incidents, like the one earlier this year where Russian bombers penetrated Swedish airspace and possibly simulated a nuclear strike.

When discussing German spending, it is correct that it's a bit low in relation with GDP, but we have to keep in mind that Germany has a very high GDP, so the actual spending is fairly high anyway. Not as high as UK and France though. Still, German spending is over 7 times as big as Sweden's :)

[Tonci87 163]

Yeah but Germany´s spending is often missdirected and really not efficient. They have huge problems with their gear, especially with the old stuff. The new stuff doesn´t arrive in time due to bad contracts with the industry. On a military excercise, if 3 out of 5 Marder IFVs make it to the training ground without breaking down on the way, this is considered to be a huge success. Hell I bet Poland could right now conquer Germany if they only wanted to...

[Brisse 78]

I hear you. It's just like the NH90 contract in Sweden. It's been delayed many times now, while the Hkp4 was taken out of service prematurely. That's why you did not see any ASW helicopters during the operation in Stockholm archipelago.

[Brisse 78]

Lithuania will not be dependent on Russian gas supply in the future, as the Russian gas monopoly in the Baltic states get's crushed by this Norwegian floating LNG terminal. This means Putin looses political influence in the area, since he can no longer control the gas prices. Lithuania have paid some of the highest gas prices of any European country up until now. This floating LNG terminal have the capacity to cover more than 100% of the Lithuanian gas consumption.

http://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/dette-norske-skipet-knuser-putins-gassmonopol/a/23323424/ (Norwegian)

[oxmox 73]

Swedish Submarine Search Not Triggered by Russian Emergency Call: Intelligence Source

Reports that a Russian emergency call triggered the submarine hunt in Stockholm's archipelago are false, a source from the Swedish Navy’s intelligence service told the Dagens Nyheter newspaper.

“It was just as interesting for me to read about the Russian distress signal as it was for you. But there was no such thing, the information is incorrect,†the source was cited as saying by the newspaper on Monday.

The Svenska Dagbladet newspaper previously reported, citing “different persons with knowledge of the operationâ€, that Swedish forces in fact launched the operation after registering an emergency call in Russian between the Stockholm archipelago and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The Swedish Armed Forces rejected the claim, stating that they had no knowledge of such a call.

http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20141028/194728141/Swedish-Submarine-Search-Not-Triggered-by-Russian-Emergency-Call.html

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/forsvaret-inget-ryskt-nodsamtal-bakom-ubatsjakt/

...so the whole fuss just a media hype ? So much bullshit recently in the media and even from politicians (i.e. division of Ukraine with Poland/Russia)

Edited October 28, 2014 by oxmox

[Brisse 78]

I remember watching live when they first reported that, and even then it sounded like the source was unreliable. That did not stop the media from spreading the rumour, as if it were somehow confirmed. So much bullshit. Been following the Ukraine thread and see a lot of people laugh at the Russian media, but Swedish media is just as unreliable sometimes.