Ukraine General

[Dwarden 1124]

this scenario of 'uprising' and 'separatism' isn't anything new, it was used well by Nazi Germany in the Czechoslovakia's borderlands (Sudeten)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudetendeutsches_Freikorps

sadly the English article is total stub ...

http://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudeton%C4%9Bmeck%C3%BD_sbor_dobrovoln%C3%ADk%C5%AF

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudetenland#Sudeten_Crisis

anyway the scenario is same, train and control the 'rebels' from outside and do exactly what you need

resulting was Munchen treaty 1938 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement

so, if we go by the fact that history has tendency to repeat itself, we can consider Crimea to be equal to takeover of Austria in early 1938 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss

while the situation is little different, it's not that different to not see the similarities in many vectors

[ProfTournesol 956]

Unlike Crimea, the majority of the population in Donetsk and the rest of the east is not in favor of secession.

That's why Russian-backed radicals need to start an insurgency. Only violence and the threat of all-out civil war will scare people into accepting the protection of the only force that has the military strength and regime stability to (maybe) halt the fighting. Russia.

Anyways, in the mean time it's a whole lot of fun to see Russians actively supporting armed rebels, after 25 years of fawning over every dictator that massacres his opponents. Keep cheering while the Kremlin turns Ukraine into Libya!

But there are good rebels and bad rebels. All mighty Putin is the only one to be able to distinguish them Same story for the uniforms : get rid of the uniform patch and you are a civilian militia.

[mistyronin 1181]

while the situation is little different, it's not that different to not see the similarities in many vectors

In fact the world economic and politic situation is not that different from that time ( at that time the world was recovering from the 29's crack, nowadays the financial crisis ).

Everyone was trying to avoid another big war that drained the resources of most of the nations ( at that time WW1, and nowadays the Cold War ). Reducing their armies and relaying on diplomacy to solve world's problems ( remember that even the US Army is returning to numbers before WW2 ).

At that time a really depressed Germany that had suffered a lot of internal conflicts and corruption and a blow to its self esteem after losing the WW1 and the end of the German Empire ( in this case Russia has suffered a lot of corruption and internal conflicts after the end of the Soviet Union ), had a leader elected who promised to revive the country again, blaming the rest of the world for all the pains that the country suffered.

That could happen because in WW1 although Germany was defeated, was not "invaded", did not suffer effects of the war in its own ground, same as Russia with the Cold War.

Hitler started to rebuild and modernize their army ( same did Putin ), promoting Olympic Games ( Berlin and Sochi ) where the world complained about how the country attacked certain minority ( the jews in the German case, and Homosexuals in the Russian ).

Then well, all the Austria and Czechoslovakia issues, that you have cited. Hitler excusing of Germany's action, saying that he was only protecting German citizens, that because of the WW1 end were now in another country ( same that Putin says about russian citizens in Ukraine ).

[akm74 1]

Let's be 100% clear:

With a crystal clear and peaceful referendum ( with UN monitors from all over the world ). I'd personally support myself the results; whatever they are: to be independent, to join Russia, to be an autonomy, to be just part of Ukraine ( in Crimea, Donetsk Region, Chechnya, Dagestan, Scotland, Quebec, Catalonia, wherever there is such feeling ).

I'm always all for the peaceful auto-determination right. I understand that are people who make the social contract with their governments, not otherwise. In that sense I really like a Thomas Jefferson quote: "When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty".

About the results, honestly I don't know. Reading opinion polls from a year ago, Crimean people didn't seem to favor a union with Russia. But again the polls are from a year ago. I understand that the opinion may have changed lately due to the recent events.

But now it's really hard to distinguish the Crimean people's real opinion, with so much and strong propaganda from Russia's and Ukraine's governments.

Let me summarize it. You totally support crystal clear and peaceful referendum ( with UN monitors from all over the world ) for whole Ukraine now. And you don't undastand why Kiev want to use military forces agains it peoples instead ? Is this right ? After all this is what 2 month protest at Maidan square was all about. Give peoples right to choose , right ? I'm with you 100% on it.

[mistyronin 1181]

Let me summarize it. You totally support crystal clear and peaceful referendum ( with UN monitors from all over the world ) for whole Ukraine now. And you don't undastand why Kiev want to use military forces agains it peoples instead ? Is this right ? After all this is what 2 month protest at Maidan square was all about. Give peoples right to choose , right ? I'm with you 100% on it.

I do support crystal clear and peaceful referendum ( with UN monitors from all over the world ) .

But I do not support, people that take weapons or use their military power to influence others ( read do military exercises in the border of other countries ).

If people in Donetsk instead of assaulting Police stations and other government buildings, did their protests peacefully in open spaces ( read squares, fields, etc. ), collect signatures, organize concerts, whatever... they would have my full support in asking for a true referendum to decide whatever they want ( as long as it's democratic and according to the human rights, it doesn't need to be 100% legal, as laws are made by men ). And I would condemn any police or army force assaulting them.

In the past I've been in similar events working as a press photographer ( in another square from another country ). And what I saw there was healthy ( until the police crushed it ).

To me to defend the right to use your own language and traditions is perfectly legit ( as long as its done peacefully ).

[akm74 1]

If people in Donetsk instead of assaulting Police stations and other government buildings, did their protests peacefully in open spaces ( read squares, fields, etc. ), collect signatures, organize concerts, whatever... they would have my full support in asking for a true referendum to decide whatever they want ( as long as it's democratic and according to the human rights, it doesn't need to be 100% legal, as laws are made by men ). And I would condemn any police or army force assaulting them.

That's exactly what they did 3-4 weeks ago. Too bad freaks in Kiev was busy splinting and transferring "cookies" to their personal Swiss accounts. They did't notice what coming.

[arttem 1]

To me to defend the right to use your own language and traditions is perfectly legit ( as long as its done peacefully ).

And if it became not peacefull? And nobody give a care to what you want?

[mistyronin 1181]

That's exactly what they did 3-4 weeks ago. Too bad freaks in Kiev was busy splinting and transferring "cookies" to their personal Swiss accounts. They did't notice what coming.

But social movements take time to get changes, in the square that I told you, the protests took months, with hundreds of thousands of people in the streets in some demonstrations.

I do agree that Ukraine government has not listen much to the eastern people until a few days ago. But, I also understand that its only a provisional government until the close elections give them a proper and 100% vote legit government.

After the first 100 in power passed the elections, they didn't do anything, I'd understand bigger mobilizations. But again, no violence. I promise you that a day of mass strike in the Donetsk Region would force the Kiev government to change their policies. And that can be done without any gun.

And if it became not peacefull? And nobody give a care to what you want?

There are plenty of peaceful methods to defend one's ideas. Look at Gandhi, also mass strikes, etc. If the people don't want to follow the government command, the government can't do anything, not even with all the tanks in the world. The best civilian weapon is their negative to comply orders, civil disobedience.

Obviously for that kind of acts, you need full support of a big part of the society ( which I'm not so sure that Pro-Russian movements have in Eastern Ukraine ).

To me the only violence that is right is the self-defence. But not applicable in this case as the actual Ukraine's government was not using troops against peaceful civilians.

Edited April 13, 2014 by MistyRonin

[arttem 1]

Obviously for that kind of acts, you need full support of a big part of the society.

Ok. And now we have the whole Ukraine (big part) and a little Crimea ( the part of big, but minority), aaaand? They just used a cheat console, typed there IDDQD, they just didn't have another ways to solve their problem.

Can you guarantee me safety if i travel to Iraq wich was cleaned by democratic people? The same with another countries wich was "peacefully" cleaned? I think no. Now go to Osetiya, Abkhazia. For years people now live in silence and peace. Crimea will be the same. Do you have any sensational news from Crimea? Crimes? Maidans? People running from there? Bloody KGB puts everybody under arrest?

[akm74 1]

After the first 100 in power passed the elections, they didn't do anything, I'd understand bigger mobilizations. But again, no violence. I promise you that a day of mass strike in the Donetsk Region would force the Kiev government to change their policies. And that can be done without any gun.

I hope you right. But IMHO it a little to late now.

[mistyronin 1181]

I hope you right. But IMHO it a little to late now.

Well, it could still be somehow deescalated if all the parts agreed.

But IMHO there are some parts which want conflict badly ( one of them Putin's executive, the other minority extreme right parties like Right Sector ) that make it really difficult.

To me it would be really sad if the situation escalates to a full blown conflict. I've seen what that takes, and nothing good to Ukrainian people, no matter if Russian speakers or Ukrainian speakers.

[arttem 1]

To me it would be really sad if the situation escalates to a full blown conflict. I've seen what that takes, and nothing good to Ukrainian people, no matter if Russian speakers or Ukrainian speakers.

You are not alone with such thoughts here. Nobody want it. But everything goes to full conflict. Lavrov requires urgent meeting of the UN security Council, but I'm afraid, EU do not need it.

[mistyronin 1181]

The most ironic part of all that.

Is that I'm 100% sure that a good solution could be found with peaceful methods ( as I said, mass strikes, civil disobedience, etc. ).

Maybe not a solution that Putin or Right Sector would be happy with ( after all Putin wants to expand Russia ), but at least that the majority of Ukrainian people would ( Russian speakers or Ukrainian speakers ).

Edited April 13, 2014 by MistyRonin

[ProfTournesol 956]

You are not alone with such thoughts here. Nobody want it. But everything goes to full conflict. Lavrov requires urgent meeting of the UN security Council, but I'm afraid, EU do not need it.

EU ? (5 char).

[arttem 1]

EU ? (5 char).

Let's say - main players in UN counsil.

[mistyronin 1181]

Let's say - main players in UN counsil.

I think that the EU has few power on that, the US don't have much either.

It's a regional conflict where the main players are Ukraine ( and its different movements ) and Russia. They are the only ones that can do anything. The NATO has already said that won't intervene.

So the main problem is that the Russian speakers feel that some of their rights are limited or cut, so the thing is to restore that rights. If people wants autonomous regions, or a federal state, or whatever, all that is an internal affair ( Russia has no right to intervene ).

If by any chance the Ukraine's government was taken by right extremist ( not the case ), and started to attack peaceful civilian population ( killing thousands and so on ), then the UN could send a peacekeeper mission until the situation is solved ( through new laws allowing such rights, creating an autonomy, maybe even independence of certain region whatever ). Then the peacekeepers could go back home, as it happened in Kosovo.

That's what could had happen in Crimea. But nope. Russia send troops before any major violence event happened, and annexed it before any democratic solution could be found, showing that its only intention was to invade and annex it.

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( Yle ) ( Finland's ) Defence University Director: Hunt for “little green men†is on again

Torsti Sirén says it is clear that Russian special forces are mobilized in eastern Ukraine. Director of the Department of Strategic and Defence Studies at the Finnish National Defence University, Sirén says Russia’s ultimate goal is to bring eastern and possibly even southern Ukraine closer to Russia – in one form or another.

Director of the National Defence University Torsti Sirén believes that Russia is trying to generate a crisis in East Ukraine in order to have a reason to intervene.

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( Le Monde, french ) Ukraine : le Conseil de sécurité de l'Onu se réunit en urgence

Basically: The UN security council has gathered in emergency as a propose of Russia

Edited April 13, 2014 by MistyRonin

[Beagle 684]

"Then the peacekeepers could go back home, as it happened in Kosovo"

The point is just that this did not happen...NATO QRF is still in Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. NATO never leaves. Edited April 13, 2014 by Beagle

[mistyronin 1181]

The point is just that this did not happen...NATO QRF is still in Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. NATO never leaves.

In Kosovo there is only a really little contingent ( among them there are also no NATO soldiers, like Finnish or Swedish, even from Morocco or Switzerland ), not a QRF but an intelligence group which BTW could be removed if Kosovo government ask, same that happened in Iraq; where after the war has 0 foreign soldiers in its soil.

Edited April 13, 2014 by MistyRonin

[Beagle 684]

In Kosovo there is only a really little contingent ( among them there are also no NATO soldiers, like Finnish or Swedish ), not a QRF but an intelligence group which BTW could be removed if Kosovo government ask, same that happened in Iraq; where after the war has 0 foreign soldiers in its soil.

Are you aware how important that little listening post on Base on that Montain now suddently is? and I would not call 4.900 soldiers a small contigent if you consider the small population. The deployment tiem just got prolonged infefinately still using the old UN resolution1244. New name fpr the deployment is KF (Kosovo Force) instead of KFOR...KFOR is indeed over. I knowe about it very well because I was recently asked to go there....BW is currently sending semi active Reservist units there a lot and My last task was signal intelligence. And they are right now again looking a lot for native russian speakers amongs german soldiers. Edited April 13, 2014 by Beagle

[mistyronin 1181]

Are you aware how important that little listening post on Base on that Montain now suddently is?

Not much, at least for Russia, having in mind that Russia used to have 4000 troops there and removed them.

[Beagle 684]

Not much, at least for Russia, having in mind that Russia used to have 4000 troops there and removed them.

That post can receive almost everything with some output on most wavebands execept below 70cm up to the Caucasus

[mistyronin 1181]

That post can receive almost everything with some output on most wavebands execept below 70cm up to the Caucasus

If Russia cared enough, they would have kept some peacekeepers to monitor the situation in Kosovo, same they do in Transnistria for example. If they decided to withdraw ALL their troops was because they wanted.

[arttem 1]

By the way, an interesting appeal letter, hanging on the website Feodosia optical plant.

http://fkoz.feodosia.com.ua

[mistyronin 1181]

( The Guardian ) UN holds emergency security council meeting

The British ambassador to the UN, Lyall Grant, told the meeting that Russia has amassed tens of thousands of well-equipped troops near the Ukrainian border in addition to the 25,000 troops it recently moved into Crimea.

"Satellite images show that there are between 35,000 and 40,000 Russian troops in the vicinity of the border with Ukraine equipped with combat aircraft, tanks, artillery and logistical support units," Grant said.

"This is in addition to the 25,000 Russia troops based illegally in Crimea," Grant added in his speech during the emergency meeting.

"We want to use this Security Council meeting to expose that but also warn Russia against using events in eastern Ukraine as a pretext for further military escalation in the region," Lyall Grant said.

Seems that a lot of countries being NATO countries ( US, UK, etc. ) or no NATO countries ( for example Sweden or Finland ), agree that Russia is trying to force the events for a military intervention in Ukraine.

( El País, spanish ) Rusia se queda sola en el Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas

Headline translated " Russia stands alone in the UN Security Council "

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( Kyiv Post ) Ukraine says it can prove that Russia coordinated weekend attacks

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Reuters are reporting that Ukraine's interim president has said the Kiev leadership was "not against" a referendum being held on the type of state Ukraine should be. He added he was sure it would confirm the wish of the majority for a united, independent country.

The holding of a referendum has been one of the demands of separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Oleksander Turchinov, in televised remarks to a parliamentary committee, added that such a poll could be held at the same time as a presidential election on May 25.

He added that an anti-terrorist operation involving the army would begin in eastern Ukraine, unless rebels laid down their arms, and that the Donbass region "will soon be stabilised".

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Interesting video

Horlivka - The man in fatigues introduces himself as a lieutenant colonel of the Russian army

Edited April 14, 2014 by MistyRonin

[arttem 1]

Interesting video

Horlivka - The man in fatigues introduces himself as a lieutenant colonel of the Russian army

And what? Half of the Ukraine is Russian colonels in past.

He gives them a task:

- prevent riots;

- prevent of looting;

- prevent of seizures of buildings.