Arma 3 is not going far enough with Technology

[instagoat 133]

Credits: MANY thanks to MadDogX for formatting my awfully formatted post. This makes reading tons easier. All following is edited and arranged by him, text is mine.

Disclaimer: This thread is not a complaint, rather I want it to be understood as an inspirational source for modders, BI themselves, and people interested in the future of global society in general. Because it is also relevant to Arma 3s Universe, I am putting it here. I will search out data on all of the things noted here, and noted in the future, and update the first page of the thread as I come across things.[/color][/size][/i][/b]

This is a chart of expected technological progression from now until ~2040

Technology advances at a rapid, rapid pace, and now already we are seeing developments of technologies that were dreams in the 90s, and which will be fully developed within the next 20 years or so. This chart is probably very optimistic, but I think if you stretch the things from beginning to 2030, only using developments up to 2020, you get a realistic Idea of what will be achievable:

• Space Tourism will be achieved.
  
• Smart Grid technology will be in place.
  • Impacting the abillity to destroy an opponents logistical train as well as in-country supplies like electricity, food and water unless they have total air domination.
    

  [*]Self healing materials will be military grade standard by 2030

  • Could means regenerating bodyarmour, clothes, as well as other items.
    
  • I am currently trying to dig up data on all of these things to put here, to illustrate why Arma 3, going by a 2030 date, is too conservative unless we´ve not been shown everything.
    

  [*]We will have global, organized cyber militaries

  • these are already being developed and, very likely, used in offensive, undeclared wars to test out potentials.
    
  • cyber info-warfare, not only politically and globally, but on a digital battlefield level.
    

  [*]We will have self-driving vehicles, empowered by advanced AI and equipped to actually perceive their environment and proactively engage with it.

  • UAVs will not be dumb, human controlled drones, they will actually act completely on their own, in a coordinated and aggressive fashion.
    
  • The same AI systems will likely be used for mines, battlefield surveillance systems, C&C and actual engagements.
    

  [*]We will have advanced materials science developments: metamaterials.

  • Amongst other things, they can be used to develop functional optical camouflage.
    
  • Vehicles will not only be able to change their appearance on thermal as done by the BAE demonstrator that has been linked on these forums already, but will be able to completely disappear from view for a limited period of time, only briefly becoming visible when firing their weapons.
    
  • Metamaterials can also be used to provide protection against laser rangefinders, dazzlers, to improve optics, to improve antennas, and other things.
    

  [*]We will have electronic circuits capable of much, much higher performance than we do now.

  • more resistant to force and preserving energy much better
    
  • massively improved accumulator technology
    

  [*]We will have weather engineering on a global scale.

  • This is already implemented and tested locally (For example, during the opening ceremony of the past Beijing Olympics)
    
  • by 2030 local governments will be able to influence the weather in their area to a great degree
    
  • Militaries will also have massive use in this, if it can be made effective enough.
    

  [*]We will have personal fabricators.

  • Local stores will be able to produce individualized items according to customer specs on the spot.
    
  • Rebels will be able to use jury-rigged fabricators and item printers to produce weapons that would be industry standard in this day and age, at rapid rates, as long as electric power and raw materials, as well as templates, are available.
    

  [*]Certain gear that is military grade now will be way past it´s prime then

  • Thermal vision for weapons will be common both for police and hunters, and readily available to anybody who can break into the storages of a local hunting supplies store.
    
  • Ditto for Nightvision devices and motion sensors.
    

  [*]Skin-embedded screens, flourescent and dynamic tattoos, as well as advanced RFID tagging to go along with bodymarking (for prisoners, for example) will be in the course of development

  • ^^ may be started to be fielded by high-tech militaries and governments on a limited scale by 2030.
    
  • Body-Computer interfaces will be developed also
    

  [*]Virtual Reality applications may not be a novelty anymore, but a commonly used implement in many places to enhance human performance in work and battlefield environments.

  • Advanced Haptics-technology will allow VR users to actually experience what they are seeing as if they were there, feel the wind on their face just like the UAV they are controlling is feeling it on its wings.
    

  [*]Powered Exoskeletons for medical, work and of course military use will be commonplace.

  • Up-armoured, CQB focused exoskeletons for EOD and breaching and assault work will be available, using state of the art armour and sensors, along with specialised CQB weaponery.
    

  [*]There will be -no more paper money-.

  • All currencies of the developed world will, through pressure of banks and governments, be digitized, and only virtual, quick-swap currencies will exist.
    
  • Black markets will thrive wherever people do not have access to this system, or where access is limited.
    

The chart offers MUCH more than just this short list. In the future, I will delve into some aspects of these technologies, find out what they´re about and how realistic it´ll be that they are achieved by 2030, however, even if we are massively pessimistic and only advance the timeline as far as 2015, the advancements over our current technology will be enormous.

The gear the NATO soldiers are wearing, thusly, as a raw and rough example, is kit that will be 20+ years old by the time the Limnos incident rolls around. As such, I hope that people will not take this "future" setting badly, and instead of getting upset, will get inspired. For the first time, a game offers us to do a hard-core, near-future imagination of the world we live in. I suspect the Arma devs will not do so much storywork themselves that there will be space left for the community to thrive, and instead of hanging around in the past, get creative, do the research, and see where technology could lead us.

Maybe a chance for gaming to prove that it can be more than mindless entertainment, enthrallment by orgiastic chains of explosions, and instead offer some thoughtful and involved content.

And, being Arma, obvsly the most engaging, challenging, complex and authentic battlefield simulation to ever grace the face of the PC gaming world.

Hope this will be a constructive thread. Also hope that I didn´t get too pathetic and rousing.

Cheers, Instagoat

Edited October 30, 2012 by InstaGoat

[mr burns 132]

Wall of text is quite the right term :D

I have to wonder though: How can you care about orbital ion cannons not getting enough love, when we still have to use 21st century aircraft like WW2 aircraft due to their lacking radar/target aquisition systems :confused:

[Kamov 1]

ArmA developers lack creativity, more at 11. Seriously ArmA3's tech could be considered 1960's due to the lack of equipment/usable technology available. Such as electronic warfare.

[Beagle 684]

The history, the past and the present time show me that technical advancement is stalling for decades. We already lag behind half a decade of what was envisioned in the 60's.

The times as fast technical advancement are over. Lthe last time a war started with Wodden Planes and repeatig carbines and ended with jetfighters and cruise missiles was in the 40's of the last century.

The advancement doen in the last 20 Years is basically only cometics to things that existet for decades ago. Just look at the european automobile industrie, they currently dig out old technology like Direct injection and tiny turbo boosted three cylinder engines and sell it as a new Idea...the japanese did that back in the 70's and were laught at for that back in that times.

Back in 1995 we used a lot of equipment and vehicles made in the 70's in the german army...simply because it worked and was still in perfect shape. And it was back then when replacements arrived that newer often did not mean better. There is a tendency in modern armies to replace older but very effective units with "newer" but often cheaper and in the field less good performing ones. Often the new stuff onyl looks good on paper...like EC Tiger, NH90, Boxer, Puma and Fenek...the predecessors of this examples often still perform better and the new stuff often does not hold the industries promises in practical use.

Edited October 30, 2012 by Beagle

[Kamov 1]

That isn't what I meant but I disagree completely, there is no comparison of cold war tech with modern tech. Because of modern computers. I'm simply saying ArmA has a lack of that tech that is actually usable because its all simplified down to "press tab to win".

[Beagle 684]

That isn't what I meant but I disagree completely, there is no comparison of cold war tech with modern tech. Because of modern computers. I'm simply saying ArmA has a lack of that tech that is actually usable because its all simplified down to "press tab to win".

the Computers in the Leo II and M1 are cold war era. We used to have computer manufactureres like Konrad Zuse back in the 60's...the cold war era lasted till 91 amnd 1991 was definately not the stone age..back than all we have today was know like portable PC s and mobile phones it was just not as small and that stuff was far from affordable.

A minute on german C net mobile phone was like 3 DM a minute and our first laptop had a pricetag of 9.000 DM back in 1992 (DM > $ was 1$ ~ 1.70DM)

[instagoat 133]

the Computers in the Leo II and M1 are cold war era. We used to have computer manufactureres like Konrad Zuse back in the 60's...the cold war era lasted till 91 amnd 1991 was definately not the stone age..back than all we have today was know like portable PC s and mobile phones it was just not as small and that stuff was far from affordable.

A minute on german C net mobile phone was like 3 DM a minute and our first laptop had a pricetag of 9.000 DM back in 1992 (DM > $ was 1$ ~ 1.70DM)

It is true that most modern military computers are old and low performance compared to desktop gaming rigs, however, the reason for that is the needless overhead (the communications and interfacing tech isn´t advanced enough yet to warrant putting more high performing machines in there) in performance for their civil counterparts, and the fact that they are reliable. The spaceshuttles computers were basically modified 286s if I remember correctly. But it -ran-.

However, once a computer technology rolls around that is just as or more reliable, is affordable and provides sufficient extra benefit, the legacy systems will be thrown out wherever necessary and new systems put in place. Especially with regards to modular computing and engineering, this will be important, because I think it´s realistic to expect that the current research into modular combat vehicles will turn out to be a good path to walk on.

Also, the reason for the technological drive after 1960 slowing down is that by then, we had achieved all the easy things, and from then on only difficult things remained. In 1940, a handful of individuals single-handedly cracked the nuts: today, you have entire science operations with hundreds and hundreds of people working on them to solve problems. And just because a modern smartphone is kind of the same as a 1990s vintage mobile phone by appearance and job description, I think they are two entirely different animals. A smartphone is -massively- more advanced. A modern smartphone outclasses most 1990s laptop and desktop computers by performance, memory and versatillity. Things haven´t slowed down, they in fact have begun to speed up.

The "slowdown" you mention is an illusion, because the basic problems were at heart down to figuring out a starting point. We have the starting point down, and now we actually have to use what we found out to build something new. Meta-materials are about constructing materials that nature is -incapable of forming-, for example. AI research is beginning to become relevant for government and industry alike, and Universities in the US are already now doing swarm-robotics with AI controlled drones for surveillance and disaster support purposes.

New combat vehicles are also developed to very precise operating conditions. MRAPs for example will not be that useful in a continental, cold war, fulda-gap style scenario. On the other hand, AAVs and Bradleys do not work very well in an Urban, ambush and IED dominated guerillia war.

Also, the automobile industry is not focused on progress, they´re interested in what sells. A lot of good Ideas were sold to them in the 70s and 80s, and then put in the bottom drawer. Some of these things are now pulled out because technology allows them to be fielded immediately and reasonable cost, and because the customer base demands them. Companies do not go towards what makes sense, but towards what the Customers want. And for the past 20 years, people wanted V8, 250 bhp BMW M limousines and fat SUVs. The Oil economy will see to that, gradually.

I am more in favour of an optimistic view on technology, but I also think that a lot of the things (particularily on the geoengineering side) are a little too optimistic in that list. I also think that we are now getting into the difficult part of development: silicon based computing is already running into barriers left and right, for example, because of physics and chemical hard barriers. We still press on and find solutions, and break down barriers. And unless the world massively changed in the Armaverse, I think a more optimistic outlook on technology as far as the gameworld is concerned is warranted.

Also: First post updated, Thanks again to MadDogX for the help!

[dragon01 902]

Very good points. A lot of this wouldn't have much gameplay impact (space tourism, lack of paper money), but others might change how the game is played. On the other hand, even if self-healing materials will be military grade by the time of AIII, the question is, will they be affordable? Money is an important factor, and reliability and ease of manufacture is another. I think that things that are now in development might be commonplace then, but the things that are in concept/predictions stage now will be in development then. Current hardware might be a bit outdated by AIII, but I don't think it'll disappear completely. As of now, US military is using a derivative of a Vietnam War-era rifle, and Russians are using a derivative of a rifle invented in 1947. I'd say, modern designs will be there in 2030, but in an updated and modified form.

I doubt we'll have military grade weather engineering implemented, small scale uses are there, but they disrupt the natural cycle and have limited applications. As for powered exoskeletons, I think they'll actually be in AIII, they're just not shown. It's fairly well known that this technology is in testing stages now. BI would have to be blind (and they don't seem to be) not to see the potential behind including this technology, it just seems like an obvious addition.

Edited October 30, 2012 by Dragon01

[Bee8190 10]

Interesting and even fascinating stuff there goat.

I believe this is very much in relation to all of the above -

http://www.defencetalk.com/graphene-foam-detects-explosives-emissions-better-than-todays-gas-sensors-38568/

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article31879.html

(By the way threat like this but more in depth would be IMO frequently read section in the offtopic section.I'm sure many more would like to read about advances of general military :) )

[Beagle 684]

Point is, im now 40 years old and I in the last 30 Years I heard and read too much of such much to optimistic prognoses to still belive in this.

According to NASA guys from the 60's we should by now have settlements on the moon and on mars...but it did never happen.

We are for quite a long time at a point where the key must be socio-cultural developemt is needed, otherwise we wil be stuck in the stone age forever, no matter what metamaterial the clubs we use are made of.

Edited October 31, 2012 by Beagle

[alx 20]

"The future isn't what it used to be," was a famous quote by Arthur C Clarke. Famous because it's very true.

[iceman77 18]

What would be the point in such a game where these items/standards existed? Wouldn't be very fun in my opinion. A3 will be in a RL location but in a fictional world at any rate. So who's to say what technology exist in such a game in such a time? My 2c

[Kristian 47]

This thread is quite right. There isn't simply fictive enough stuff, or we haven't simply seen it. The few like the railgun tank concept... thing and the Hamok are nice, but I think there should be even more. I mean, they use Gear, Equipment and vehicles from our time, with almost little to no changes (cosmetic outlooks at least). It'd be really nice, if BIS got creative and just made completelly new weapons, vehicles and whatnot. Maybe modernized version of Osprey using jet engines (Crysis VTOL anyone? :3), or something similar. The fact that they recycle the MV22 and Merlin and such from ArmA 2 and OA... I just don't like it :/

Also, cars (civillian at least) should have some Nice HUD of some sort. Why? Well I don't know... Maybe the game would feel

more "modern" and it'd certainly add to the "cool" factor :D

[EDcase 87]

Sorry but I disagree.

No matter what date BIS sets us in ARMA3 I don't want to play with too futuristic stuff that changes the gameplay much from the previous ARMA experience.

If you want to play with futuristic stuff then there are many games that offer that.

From what I've seen, the balance seems right as it is sofar.

The more futuristic things like power suits could be addons by BIS or the community.

Edited October 31, 2012 by EDcase

[Kamov 1]

Sorry but I disagree.

No matter what date BIS sets us in ARMA3 I don't really want to play with too futuristic stuff that changes the gameplay much from the previous ARMA experience.

If you want to play with futuristic stuff then there are many games that offer that.

But this game is set in 2035.

[Corvinus 35]

I'm quite OK with what Arma 3 has right now, but I have a feeling that 2025 would be more appropriate date for such technology level.

[instagoat 133]

Sorry but I disagree.

No matter what date BIS sets us in ARMA3 I don't want to play with too futuristic stuff that changes the gameplay much from the previous ARMA experience.

If you want to play with futuristic stuff then there are many games that offer that.

From what I've seen, the balance seems right as it is sofar.

The more futuristic things like power suits could be addons by BIS or the community.

As the saying goes, the only constant in the Universe is Change. And I stated in my starter that BI are being too conservative, and that the collection I am doing here is more intended towards inspiring Community members new and old into producing new content.

If BI wouldn´t have wanted futuristic stuff, they shouldn´t have picked a date as far as 2030. It opens tons of possibillities, and holding the tech level of now at that date is very unrealistic. Stuff that will have been produced now will be as vintage then as north koreas Mig-19s and Mig-21s are today.

[-Coulum- 35]

I agree that BIS is too conservative, but at the same time I am glad they are. In 2035 wars will probably be fought in vastly different ways than today, but I want arma 3 to play out more like modern warfare just with cutting edge, "cool" technology.

I do think it would be a great idea for mods and I would love to have a realistic sci-fi first person shooter. (by realistic I mean that all the technologies are at least somewhat plausible.) It also might make for a wicked DLC.

[delloc 10]

So to set a couple of things straight on technology advancement:

First stage is creating and proving the theory

Second is increase efficiency and decrease size

Third is developing new advancements based on new insight for the original technology

So while it may appear technology is moving slowly, it is actually moving very very quickly but those advancements are all in the early stages, here are examples:

1. Nano Technology - The base of this technology has been created and proven. UK engineers built nano-bots that pushed a drop of water up hill.

2. Power Exo-Skeleton - MIT engineers have built a power suit that can lift 4-5 times there weight and small companies have taken this to build power legs that a person can wear to carry 300+ pounds.

3. Micro Screens that fit on a contact lens - Univ. of Washington Engineers have create a screen that fits on a contact lens that can augment visual representation of the world around you or provide information without wearing a bulky helmet.

These are just a few examples of where we are and there are many many more... What people confuse is the application of advancements vs actual advancement and that is why it appears to some that technology slows down. In the above examples there were many more individual technology breakthroughs that are now bearing fruit in applicable technology.

So yes I agree with the original poster that Arma 3 may not be utilizing the full possibilities of what is possible in 20ish years.

BTW, moon base is possible...but it is also stupid. There is little to no reason to have a moon base at this time and that is why the international space station was built.

[narwall14 1]

I don't want a battlefield 2142 or Black ops 2. I think they are using the right tech for that time period

[EDcase 87]

I'm quite OK with what Arma 3 has right now, but I have a feeling that 2025 would be more appropriate date for such technology level.

Yes, I agree. What we have seen so far would be more appropriate for an earlier year.

2020 sounds good to me and seems right for the tech shown in game.

[Desert1 1]

I always thought that 2035 was a risk for BI to take, for it was so far in the future, and this was what I saw coming, the technology would be almost nothing like what it is today, compare the BDU of the 1991 Gulf War with the ACU of today. Technology moves a very rapid pace and I think by setting the year at 2035, technology will have advanced further than BI might have put in the game.

[Foxtrop 10]

Im more worry about technology simulation(gameplay) if the design doesnt fit with what we belive is the future we can change it, if ARMA3 is so modable as ARMA2

[Phantom Six 25]

The REAL 2035 mod :P is what I can envision. Someone modding in a bunch of futuristic stuff, which would be nice for different types of missions.

[liquidpinky 11]

One thing has been overlooked though, the financial side of all these upcomming technologies.

Will they be deemed cost effective?

That is why most of the prototypes BIS are using in A3 are still just that in the first place.