The Middle East part 2

[theavonlady 2]

Last year:

An Israeli friend told me that Israeli society has become so socio-politically fragmented that if it weren't for the Palestinian conflict there would probably be a civil war.

Today:

Quote[/b] ]<span style='font-size:9pt;line-height:100%'>Israel warns of civil war risk</span>

By Dan Williams

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel's justice minister has warned that far-right rabbis who urge soldiers to disobey orders to evacuate Jewish settlements in Gaza were flirting with civil war and could face prosecution.

...

The race is on!

Quote[/b] ]PA legislators warn of civil war

Oct. 22, 2004 0:04

By KHALED ABU TOAMEH

Warning that the Palestinians are on the verge of civil war, 24 Palestinian legislators signed a petition on Thursday calling for the replacement of Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei's cabinet, saying it is responsible for the growing anarchy and lawlessness in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The legislators presented the petition to the Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, Rouhi Fatouh, and urged him to hold a special session to vote on a no-confidence bill against the cabinet. Fatouh is required to reply to the petition within three days.

On Wednesday, the PLC agreed following a heated debate to give Qurei an additional two weeks to present a report about the performance of his cabinet over the past year. Thirty-three legislators supported the decision, while 15 opposed it.

Legislator Rafik Natsheh lashed out at Qurei, accusing him of trying to win time to cover up for the failure of his cabinet. He said the security chaos was the result of the failure of the PA leadership to take real measures to implement reforms.

Imad Falouji, another legislator, said the cabinet has enough power to tackle the situation, but lacks the will to enforce law and order.

"The cabinet and the interior minister are responsible for the security deterioration," he said. "They are not doing anything to pursue the perpetrators and those who are financing and arming them. Some of them are carrying out attacks in broad daylight and without masks because they are confident they will not be held accountable."

Referring to this week's armed clashes between rival PA security forces in the Gaza Strip, legislator Burhan Jarrar warned that the Palestinians are headed towards civil war. "We are living in a situation where the security forces need protection," he said. "What is most serious is that the security forces are loyal to certain people and are involved in many problems."

Legislator Yusef Shanti questioned the effectiveness of spending $250 million a year on the security forces when they have failed to protect citizens against armed thugs.

"The attacks on legislators and Palestinian officials and institutions are continuing under various pretexts," he said, referring to the closure earlier this week of the PLC and the PA Tax Department in Jenin by gunmen belonging to Fatah's armed wing, the Aksa Martyrs Brigades.

The stormy session was suspended twice following heated exchanges among legislators. During one of the confrontations, legislator Azmi Shuaibi threatened to bring in "thugs" to beat the chairman of the PLC Financial Committee, Sa'di al-Kurunz. In another incident, the speaker, Fatouh, walked out of the meeting after being condemned for displaying leniency with Qurei.

Most of the legislators were enraged by the cabinet's decision to shut down PA offices that have been repeatedly targeted by Fatah gunmen in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Legislator Nabil Amr, who is being treated in Munich following an attempt on his life in Ramallah three months ago, accused his colleagues of abandoning him. In a letter to the PLC, Amr, who had his leg amputated, said the PLC had neglected his case and warned that this would encourage others to take the law into their hands.

[Bernadotte 0]

At first the report states:

Quote[/b] ]

...When the company commander was approaching the suspicious figure he noticed bullets at his side and shot towards the ground as he moved back.

And then it says:

Quote[/b] ]

...he fired to the ground in response to fire opened in his direction.

Is this just a crappy translation whereby "bullets at his side" means the same thing as "fire opened in his direction"?

And if this whole case hinges on whether or not the bullets in the child came mostly came from his weapon then why isn't there ballistics evidence?  It seems like it would be quite easy to prove the commander's version if it were true.

[kerosene 0]

His own men accused him of doing it, perhaps their part of the global liberal conspiracy.

"a military police investigation into the matter is continuing"

do the geneva conventions apply in a civil war or police action? - not sure what the correct term is. Because im sure there are rules about not mutilating corpses, and that ought to go double if its a 13 year old girl.

[theavonlady 2]

At first the report states:

Quote[/b] ]

...When the company commander was approaching the suspicious figure he noticed bullets at his side and shot towards the ground as he moved back.

And then it says:

Quote[/b] ]

...he fired to the ground in response to fire opened in his direction.

Is this just a crappy translation whereby "bullets at his side" means the same thing as "fire opened in his direction"?

Yes. Original report in Hebrew here.

Meaning bullets were being fired in the commander's direction at the time, hitting the ground next to him.

Quote[/b] ]And if this whole case hinges on whether or not the bullets in the child came mostly came from his weapon then why isn't there ballistics evidence? It seems like it would be quite easy to prove the commander's version if it were true.

The case is not closed. As stated:

Quote[/b] ]The investigation concluded that the behavior of the company commander from an ethical point of view does not warrant his removal from his position. If a military police investigation will find otherwise he will be relieved from of any command duty.

However, I doubt that the Arabs will allow for a post-mortem to gather evidence.

[theavonlady 2]

His own men accused him of doing it, perhaps their part of the global liberal conspiracy.  

"a military police investigation into the matter is continuing"

do the geneva conventions apply in a civil war or police action? - not sure what the correct term is.  Because im sure there are rules about not mutilating corpses, and that ought to go double if its a 13 year old girl.

See this report from back on October 13.

As was said in the IDF announcement, there are other major problems in this outfit, both on the part of officers and soldiers in their relationship with each other.

[bn880 5]

Arafat is reported to have died in hospital today.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4595986,00.html

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=35003

[llauma 0]

Arafat is reported to have died in hospital today.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4595986,00.html

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=35003

The French doctors who are treating him denies that he is dead according to BBC.

[bn880 5]

Yeah, there is a lot of contradiction going around. A lot of rumors, but, who knows for sure.

[shinRaiden 0]

Well the death reports got started by the PM of Luxembourg speaking out of turn. The reports now are pretty much all rehashes of the same wire bulletins, but seem to indicate that Arafat may be comatose and on life-support, indicating serious change in his condition.

[shinRaiden 0]

Oh this is rich, opinion page from Jerusalem Post:

Quote[/b] ]

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will be remembered in the history books as the man who eliminated Yasser Arafat without killing him.

The general assumption was that 'Arik the Bulldozer' would do something really uncalled for and put ratbait in Yassir's food or send in the Apache helicopters and beg forgiveness later, but instead old age is catching up with him.

[billybob2002 0]

He is brain dead...

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tm....inter=1

Quote[/b] ]

Israel and Palestinians brace for worst with Arafat 'brain dead'

1 hour, 47 minutes ago

JERUSALEM (AFP) - Political leaders in Israel and the West Bank steeled themselves for the end of the Yasser Arafat (news - web sites) era as the vanguard of the Palestinian nationalist struggle for the past four decades lay brain dead in a Paris hospital.

Palestinian officials fiercely denied that Arafat had passed away after Israeli media reported that the 75-year-old had died.

But while French medical sources said Arafat was technically still alive, they added that he was "brain dead" and only breathing with the help of life support machines while in an irreversible coma.

Technically, Arafat is "not dead," one source told AFP on condition of confidentiality. But there was no hope of him leaving his vegetative state and recovering basic bodily functions such as breathing without assistance.

Such artificial care can be "extended for several days or several weeks thanks to the machines," the source said.

Israel's private Channel 2 network and army radio had reported that Arafat had been declared dead at a military hospital in Clamart, southwest of Paris.

But Azzam al-Ahmed, communications minister in the Palestinian cabinet and one of Arafat's closest allies, insisted news of his death was premature.

"It is wrong. If the president was dead, the whole world would know," he told AFP. "But it is true that he is a very critical condition."

Arafat was flown to Paris last Friday for treatment of a blood disorder after being airlifted from the compound in the West Bank town of Ramallah where he had been under effective Israeli house arrest for nearly three years.

Palestinian prime minister Ahmed Qorei had earlier tried to play down the seriousness of Arafat's condition, denying he was in a coma and insisting new test results had been positive.

Qorei had been attending emergency leadership meetings of the Palestine Liberation Organisation and the dominant Fatah (news - web sites) party. Both have been led by Arafat for some four decades, but were chaired Thursday by former premier Mahmud Abbas.

Hundreds of Fatah supporters brandished portraits of Arafat as they took to the streets of Gaza City late Thursday while prayers were said for his welfare.

"We pray to Almighty God for the swift recovery of our president Yasser Arafat so that he can return to his people in good health," said the imam at Gaza's Sheikh Zayid mosque.

Residents in Ramallah were glued to their television sets for updates on the town's famous resident.

"I can't bear the thought he will die for good. He's our national leader, the one and only," said 33-year-old Mohammed Ribhi as his eyes filled with tears.

Amid widespread fears that Arafat's death could trigger chaos on the streets of the West Bank and Gaza Strip (news - web sites), all members of the Palestinian security services were placed on a state of alert Thursday.

"The security forces have been put on a state of alert and all members ordered to be on standby," one senior officer said.

"We have been told to prepare for any activity which is beyond the law and to protect the legitimacy of all the Palestinian institutions."

Signs of nerves on the Israeli side were also evident as troops in the occupied territories were placed on alert after Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz called a meeting in Tel Aviv attended by the heads of the country's security services.

Israeli public television, meanwhile, reported that army commanders were to urge the government to capitalise on Arafat's demise by working more closely with the Palestinians.

The army has drawn up plans, codenamed "New Page", to deal with all possible eventualities should Arafat die. But officers would also urge the government to coordinate its withdrawal of settlers and troops from the Gaza Strip (news - web sites), due to take place by the end of 2005, with Arafat's successors, the television said.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon (news - web sites) has refused all dealings with Arafat since coming to power in 2001, instead confining him to his West Bank headquarters until his dramatic airlift to Paris last Friday.

Arafat's death or permanent incapacitation has the potential to galvanise the Middle East peace process.

Sharon met Abbas on a number of occasions last year before a massive suicide bomb prompted Israel to freeze top-level contacts with the Palestinians.

Arafat has also been snubbed by US President George W. Bush (news - web sites). Asked for his reaction to the reports of Arafat's death, Bush said "God bless his soul".

[Bernadotte 0]

The general assumption was that 'Arik the Bulldozer' would do something really uncalled for and put ratbait in Yassir's food or send in the Apache helicopters and beg forgiveness later...

Uncalled for? I disagree. When I think of the 1000s of Palestinian civilians needlessly killed these past few years I can only feel regret that Arafat didn't reach sooner the end of a full life in the comfort of a Paris hospital.

ShinRaiden, who do you think may become the new leader?

I hope it's this guy:

This is significant.

[ig]http://www.ilvangelo.org/news/immagini/dahlan.jpg[/img] < < Mohammad Dahlan

Arafat 'ruining his people' says protege

Quote[/b] ]...

In an interview with the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Watan he said: "Arafat is sitting on the corpses and destruction of the Palestinians at a time when they're desperately in need of a new mentality."

All of the funds which foreign countries had donated to the Palestinian Authority, a total of $5bn "have gone down the drain, and we don't know to where," he added.

Mr Arafat's policies had brought about a situation in which Palestinian lives were in ruins. "The Palestinian situation is not putting up with any more corruption, and there is no escape aside from reforms that Arafat himself has authorised," Mr Dahlan said.

...

Mr Dahlan, 43, has broad support in the Gaza Strip and is respected by Israel and the United States.

...

In recent months Mr Dahlan has been tentatively setting out a platform on which to oppose Mr Arafat.

In a succession of interviews he has said that the Palestinians must choose whether they want war or peace with Israel. War has clearly failed, he says, leaving peace as the only viable option.

In contrast to Mr Arafat's strategy of ambiguity, condemning violence but doing nothing to stop it, Mr Dahlan said the authority should prevent attacks on Israel for its own sake.

And even with such strongly differing opinions Dahlan is one of the few who has accompanied Arafat to Paris. Perhaps this is a very good sign.

By the way, I believe Kerry (or any other first term president aspiring to reach a second term) would have been worse for the ME peace process than Bush. Everyone remembers the historic Oslo handshake with Clinton, Rabin and Arafat. What most don't remember is that nearly all credit for that deal actually belonged to Bush Sr. I can well imagine that Daddy Bush advised Dubya that if your going to do anything about the ME crisis wait until your 2nd term. Just think of how Reagan escalated the Cold War to the breaking point for the USSR, only for the Iron Curtain to collapse under Bush Sr.

Another source of optimism came in 2002 when neocon cohort Paul Wolfowitz addressed a huge pro-Israel rally in Washington DC. He emphasised the need for an independent Palestinian state living peacefully side by side with Israel. The crowd of over 100,000 booed him off the stage. I was amazed. Wolfowitz could have said any of a thousand other things, especially as they'd already severed ties with Arafat. But instead he chose to say that. So maybe it's true.

[Blake 0]

Quote[/b] ]What most don't remember is that nearly all credit for that deal actually belonged to Bush Sr.

There are strikingly similiar patterns - Bush Sr. initiated peace efforts right after Gulf War and Bush Jr. did the same after Iraq invasion phase. But I can't really say Kerry would have been any worse - Bill Clinton probably would have influenced him too and surely Kerry realizes that Iraq and PA-Israel crisis need to be estinquished both for the stability of the entire region.

There's extensive account of the process in this: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0204782/

This one's for you Bern...

Quote[/b] ]After receiving a wave of terrorism accusations from Israeli PM Sharon in Madrid conference 1991, Syrian foreign minister showed picture of young Shamir wanted for assasination of count Bernadotte...silence descended.

Now you really got to 'obtain' this documentary it's very good and impartial and runs for gruelling 5,5 hours all episodes counted. You know where to get it. A friend of mine studying politics said it was a real eye-opener for him....and no, I'm not advertising it because I wan't some people to change their minds but just because it's so damn good.

[shinRaiden 0]

No significant news yet on Arafat's condition other than material leaked to the French Media, which may be suspect as we've seen earlier. Current reports suggest that Arafat may be comatose, on a respirator, and not responding to treatment.

Quote[/b] ]

French television station LCI quoted an anonymous French medical source saying Arafat was in an "irreversible coma" and "intubated" - a process that involves threading a tube down the windpipe to the lungs, often to connect a respirator. The source said Arafat was taken into intensive care Wednesday night because he was unconscious. The source said Arafat was put on a respirator, and that he is not responding to the medication he is receiving.

"I don't think he stands a chance of getting up out of the coma," the source told French TV.

Earlier in the day, the PLO executive committee and the Fatah central council held a joint meeting in the Mukata compound to discuss the latest developments surrounding Arafat's condition. The meeting was attended by Qurei and former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas, but no decisions were made.

Some Palestinian officials said Qurei had been entrusted with running the security and financial affairs of the PA. However, Fatah officials later denied the report in a move reflecting growing uncertainty among the top brass of the Palestinian leadership.

Jerusalem Post

The UPI wire suggests that a statement maybe forthcoming in the morning from Yasser's wife Suha and the Palestinian delegation at the Hospital, but is unclear whether they are referring to a new statement or the press conference earlier today.

------------------

Meanwhile, the number of children suicide bombers continues to increase.

Quote[/b] ]

Among eighteen Palestinian fugitives arrested on Thursday was Ahmed Bintawi, a 15-year old from Nablus, who had planned to launch a suicide attack in Israel.

Bintawi's arrest came three days after Amer al-Far, 16, from the Askar refugee camp near Nablus, blew himself up in the Carmel Market in Tel Aviv, killing three Israelis and injuring dozens.

According to a Shin Bet report obtained by The Jerusalem Post, the use of children in attacks is now common among all the Palestinian terror organizations.

Since the outbreak of violence in September 2000, the number of Palestinian minors involved in terror has escalated. Up until Bintawi's arrest on Thursday, 126 minors were involved in planned and executed terror acts since the beginning of 2004, with a total of 309 in the past four years.

Children as young as 11 years old are easily persuaded to join the conflict with assurances that they will gain respect in the next life. Terror organizations then distance the young recruits from their families and schools and subject them to religious and nationalistic indoctrination, the report says.

Besides being influenced by programs broadcast on Palestinian Authority television encouraging them to support jihad, children are taught in schools and summer camps, under the banner of Islam, to back resistance acts against Israel and identify with martyrs.

Parents also permit their children to participate in mass rallies in the West Bank and Gaza organized by various terror organizations. Children are often filmed carrying mock weapons or wearing explosive belts with bandannas tied around their heads, as if dressing up as martyrs.

In June 2002, security forces in Hebron discovered a photo of a baby wearing a mock explosives belt. Other children mentioned in the Shin Bet report include a 13-year-old boy from Tulkarm who, after his arrest, admitted that he had been recruited by the Islamic Jihad to carry out a suicide attack in Israel and a 15-year-old girl from Bethlehem with similar plans. The girl told security officials that her uncle, a senior Fatah Tanzim official in the city, had helped her.

In June 2003, Sa'ad Oudeh, 17, blew himself up at the French Hill intersection in Jerusalem, killing seven Israelis.

The Shin Bet report also revealed that terror organizations hide bombs inside children's toys and satchels in order to evade detection.

[shinRaiden 0]

The Jerusalem Post has an excellent piece commenting on the likely economic fallout of Arafat's passing:

Quote[/b] ]

Palestinian officials gave Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei some of Yasser Arafat's financial powers on Thursday so he could take care of urgent matters that could not be delayed, a Palestinian official said.

The PLO executive committee transferred the powers to Qurei to deal with urgent administrative and financial matters as Arafat's health further deteriorated Thursday, according to committee member Qais Abdel Karim.

Former Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas told the committee that Qurei also will head to the Gaza Strip on Friday to order security chiefs there to show solidarity and not fight during this difficult time, a Palestinian official said on condition of anonymity.

Yasser Arafat's absence may have created a political vacuum in the Palestinian leadership, but most Palestinian Authority institutions, including the ministries, municipalities, and security forces, seem to be functioning normally and without obstacles.

Determined to allay fears of chaos and internecine fighting, Palestinian officials in Ramallah and the Gaza Strip have been working hard to ensure that normal life is not disrupted as a result of Arafat's absence. Until now, it appears that they have succeeded in preventing a slide into political and security turmoil.

"Our goal is to show the world that our institutions are capable of functioning even while President Arafat is in Paris," said legislator Hatem Abdel Kader. "So far, everything is going well."

The PA has about 130,000 people on its payroll, including members of the 12 or so security forces. Many of them expressed fear this week that Arafat's departure would affect their status and salaries. Their biggest nightmare, that the rival security forces would start battling each other, has also failed to become reality.

A senior Palestinian official in the PA's finance ministry told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday that the fears of not receiving their salaries were "unjustified."

"The president does not pay the salaries from his private bank account," he said. "Many people don't realize that things have changed in the Palestinian Authority over the past three years and that we have succeeded in implementing major financial reforms."

The official noted that the salaries of all the civil servants come from foreign aid and tax revenues collected by Israel. "The salaries are deposited directly to the bank accounts of the employees under strict supervision of the donors and other international forums," he added.

A top official in Arafat's office said what transpired in the past week has demonstrated that the PA's institutions are strong and capable of functioning on a normal basis "even in the absence of a political leadership." He also dismissed fears of a Palestinian civil war as "nonsense," saying the security forces would not play into the hands of Israel.

He added: "It's true that we have a political vacuum, but this is a temporary phenomenon. Meanwhile, our institutions and security forces have displayed a great degree of responsibility, much to everyone's satisfaction."

On Monday, the Palestinian cabinet held its weekly meeting in Ramallah, where the ministers discussed a number of domestic and foreign issues. Each minister presented a detailed report about the work of his ministry and the emerging picture was one of business as usual.

The cabinet made a number of decisions, including the merging of some village councils and endorsed a plan for reconstructing the prime minister's office, as well as the establishment of a medical center in the Jericho area. In addition, the cabinet decided to form a ministerial committee to pursue negotiations with the donor countries about reforms in the PA.

The cabinet, responsible for running the day-to-day affairs of the Palestinians, is only one of several PA and PLO institutions that have been meeting on a regular basis in Ramallah ever since Arafat was flown to France for medical treatment.

But as long as Arafat is alive, these bodies are unable to take any crucial decision on political and security matters without referring to him or his senior aides in Paris.

Both Mahmoud Abbas, the No. 2 in the PLO hierarchy, and Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei are aware that they can't remove a security chief from his post without Arafat's consent. Similarly, they are unable to hold political negotiations with Israel or any other international party while Arafat is abroad.

The rumors and uncertainty is probably the easiest way to handle this with a minimum of potential flareup. By announcing that Arafat's "good as dead, but not quite" and dragging it out, by the time he actually does pass away for real the people will already have dealt with it in some regard. This could defuse a good deal of the anticipated tension.

Somewhere in the midst of this, at an appropiate moment of course, is a golden opportunity for the US and Israel and the rest of the Arab world to begin a new chapter in the peace process. With Arafat's embezzleing and bombastic obstructionism quickly fading, there's now breathing room for more level heads to prevail in picking up the pieces.

[Bernadotte 0]

With Arafat's embezzleing and bombastic obstructionism quickly fading, there's now breathing room for more level heads to prevail in picking up the pieces.

Have you got any thoughts on who might replace Arafat?

You seem quite familiar with Israel, but it's alright to say no.

[Colossus 2]

I wonder whats gone happen next when Arafat is gone?

My guess is more bloodshed, but I hope not.

This will never end  

[Acecombat 0]

They'll probably bring in another guy who likes to sit pretty at the top manipulate fundings and charity from abroad for his own use and then keep up the usual rhetoric deadlock the peace process and let the people of palestine continue to die ....

Btw Bernadotte or anyone else here seen that HARDTALK episode of BBC recently the one aired on election day in US with a HAMAS member ?

[turms 0]

I saw it, it was interesting..

[Acecombat 0]

I saw it, it was interesting..

What the BBC interview or the other movie blake was talking about?

If you mean the HARDTALK interview then did you see the part where he asks him about suicide bombings in israel and then asks him whats keeping him as a member of HAMAS from blowing himself up , ah that was gold and so was the stuttering reply

[Placebo 29]

Can you find a transcript anywhere?

[turms 0]

Video here. (i think)

[Acecombat 0]

Can you find a transcript anywhere?

I'll try and find one but i dont have any right now i saw it on TV.

The poor hamas guy was pummeled left/right , it was horrible.

AND as for the suicide bomb part his answer was *drum rolls* first he started to smile showed his full 32 teeth and paused for nearly 20 secs l , then started saying i would go and blow myself up too this and that but i cant , Tim: Why not? , Hamas guy: well you see i am not a palestinian national i cannot go there because Israelis dont recognize me as a palestinian so if i cant go there i cant blow myself up.

What an excuse that was took my even by surprise i thought he was gonna cry about himself helping on the political front and all but no ..... they guy was even retarded then i thought he was.

Tim sebastian was mighty pissed this i could say at the end of the interview even the handshake seemed so cold.

[feersum.endjinn 6]

Btw Bernadotte or anyone else here seen that HARDTALK episode of BBC recently the one aired on election day in US with a HAMAS member ?

Hardtalk is a great program, they ask really nasty questions from their guests which your average journalist never dares to ask, no matter who's the guest or what the subject.

I don't know how they even get anyone to come to their program, as their guests are usually thoroughly beaten unless they have really well thought out points...

I'd truly like to see them get people like Blair, Chirac or Bush for nice little interview...

[shinRaiden 0]

Quote[/b] ]

Have you got any thoughts on who might replace Arafat?

Right now it's a clear and exciting as the Democratic Primary was. The biggest problem is that Arafat stonewalled any succession structure in a paranoid attempt to prevent coup's.

First up you've got current PM Ahmed Qurei. He currently has the most 'power' in the PA, but that's still severely curtailed. The reason why is that Arafat rigged the structure of the PA to mirror the PLO, much how the Soviets had a token government stuffed with matching folks from the Communist party. So while on paper Qurei is independent of the PLO structure, he has to clear everything with the PLO chair first, who is Arafat.

Secondly you have Mahmoud Abbas, Arafat's number two in the PLO. He's in even worse shape than Qurei. Hamas and several other groups like the PFLP have had long standing feuds (ie gang rivalry, clan warfare, etc) with the PLO. Abbas has no direct power in the PA, can't run the PLO without Arafat's say, and will likely get pounced on by external groups like Hamas and internal splinter groups like Al'Aqsa, which has some compliants about the mainstreaming of the dominating Fatah branch of the PLO.

The third dark horse is Marwan Barghouti. Currently sitting sitting in Israeli prision for orchestrating terrorist attacks, he still maintains some noteriety among the Palestinians. He's not the mellow type needed to pull off a Nelson Mandela-style transition, and would be garaunteed no cooperation from the Israelis. His availabilty is dubious at best, and usefulness is near nil. Plus his association with Arafat would not benefit him in the southern areas.

=============================

The immediate problem will really come to light when he does die and people try to figure out where to bury him. You'll really see all the different divisions in the Palestinian community come out on that one.

In the south you have Hamas with an iron hold on Gaza. One factor that repeated gets overlooked is that Egypt is not in any hurry to have Israel pull out of Gaza. This is because a large number of the Muslim Brotherhood members and other radicals involved in insurrection and assasinations since Nasser and Sadat have been hiding out in Gaza, and secondly it gives the rest of the world an excuse to stick Israel with the blame.

When Isreal withdraws from Gaza, it will leave a disciplinary void that Hamas -a radical splinter group of the MB- will quickly move to fill. Egypt is immediately concerned that instead of fighting the Israelis, these terrorists will move their operations back to Cairo using Gaza as a launching point for further attacks on Mumbarak. Egypt doesn't have the natural resources that the Arab states do, and relys heavily on tourism and other business trade. Their economy took a severe hit after the Queen Haptshepsut's tomb massacure, and will probably plunge again following the recent Taba bombing.

Secondly you have the Hebron area, where the most radical of both sides are based. On the palestinian side, you have the Al'Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, which split from Fatah because they felt Fatah was slacking off. This is also echoed by Hamas in Gaza, and there is actually a fair amount of disgust at the ineptitude, pandering, and corruption by Arafat. Many in that region feel that they've been sold out or abandoned by Arafat. It should be noted that Arafat was in exile in Tunis during the first intifada, and only showed back up when things started looking good.

Moving north you have the convergence zone between Bethlehem and Ramallah. You've got Hamas from the south, the PLO-Jordanians from the east, Israel to the west, and Hezbollah to the north, each fighting over pieces to the pie. There's a lot of blending with the Israeli economy, the terrain is more rugged complicating already volatile property disputes, and the outside Arab influence is the rather moderate Jordanian perspective. The more relaxed environment has made it easier for Arafat to use it as his safe house, and has the advantage of being convient to the crown jewel of Jerusalem.

Arafat has managed to adeptly dodge legitimacy questions and power stuggles by claiming to be the boss of the idea of Jerusalem for the Palestinians. To some extent he's managed to get out of dealing with explosive local issues by pointing everyone back to Jerusalem as the goal. He won't talk about what kind of nation he envisions for the Palestinians, but he will definately tell you where he sees the capitol being.

In the north you have a much stronger Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad influence from Syrian and Iranian backed factions. After their gains from the Barak administration, they've pretty much laid low under Sharon because they have a vivid memory of what he did to them in the 80's as Defense Minister. Furthermore Syrian and Iranian attention is more on Iraq recently. Lebanon doesn't count, it's a Damascus puppet.

Where Arafat has had very little success is in uniting and mobilizing the devout islamic factions among the Palestinians. He's done well among the more moderate Islamic and Christian palestinians. His ancestory is absolutely uncertain from having cooked his passport so many times from the 60's through the 80's to suit changing times, and audiences, but the latest estimate is that he was born in Cairo to non-refugee expatriates during the early Mandate period. That's a couple strikes against him by the Arab Muslims. Secondly, he married a Christian infidel who ran off to live in Paris, another couple strikes. Third he has a track record of burning bridges where ever he goes. The Jordanians kicked him out at gunpoint, he got run out of Beirut, and he had to reinvent himself into the first Intifada that started on the ground level without his involvement.

To bolster his support among his moderate Palestinian base, and dodge attacks and allegations, one of his repeated declarations has been that he is to be buried in the cemetary on the outside of the east wall of the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. This is the holiest cemetary in all Islam because the bridge of judgement will start there and those buried there get first dibs on salvation with Allah. Well there has been a number of complaints from the muslim community about Arafat's islamic worthyness to be buried there. The imams say 'yes, he was a great secular leader, but spiritually he was an infidel, and has no business being buried there.' There is the possibility of attempts by his supporters to bury him there could drive a major wedge into the Palestinian community. Additionally reports yesterday suggested that he may not have prepared a will stating how his Islamic last rites are to be handled, which could also be used by the fundamentalists as grounds for keeping him out of that cemetary.

The Israelis understand perfectly Arafat's intent there, it is to stake a claim on the Temple mount for the Palestinians, and to solidify Arafat's place in history. Additionally it would be seen as further strengthening Arab claim to the Temple mount and diminishing Israeli claims. Furthermore it would also be used as precedent for boundry disputes. Private reports suggest that Arafat was offered a plot in Abu Dis in Arab East Jerusalem, administratively that would be a much easier solution. He is also reported to have a family plot in Gaza.

The problem that this creates though is that it puts Hamas in the very unpleasent situation of being tactically allied with Israel against Arafat. The Arab term is "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", and I can only imagine the amusement Sharon is having thinking of the hand-wringing that Hamas is going through. In order to take over the PA, they're going to have to go after the PLO. The PLO (actually Arafat) has all the money and infrastructure in the PA's name. Hamas can only buy so many votes through more diligent bombings, at some point they're going to have to move on Ramallah.

Popcorn anyone? This is going to be an interesting show.