Syria - What should we do if anything?

[slatts 1978]

It is called baiting a whole Alliance into a binding legal resolution, which will end up with bombs raining down the skies over Damascus, courtesy of yours truly. :D

Have a nice Summer, folks.

I dunno. Bombing campaign...likely.

Full on invasion I highly doubt.

[gammadust 12]

Hi all, back from holiday. Very strange event isn't it? Why no warnings, why the unusual agressiveness?

The wreckage has been located in over 1300m of water which makes Syria's claim that the jet crashed 10km off Om al-Tuyou doubtful. If you look at this nautical chart of the area:http://www.charts.noaa.gov/NGAViewer/56041.shtml

Waters of that depth don't occur until more than twice that distance from shore. It looks more likely that the jet was flying in international airspace. Even if it did fly a few miles inside Syrian airspace, why the shootdown, usually nations issue a formal protest when this occurs? Syrian radar would have been able to track the jet from takeoff at Erhac Airbase, it's only 100 miles from the Syrian border. The Syrian account doesn't add up.

With the Russian arms shipments and their determination to keep their naval base at Tartus, defections from the airforce and army, intimidation of UN observers, civilian massacres etc. was this done to change the headlines? What a crackpot regime.

The report which mentions the depth of 1300m also mentions:

Search teams have located the wreckage of a Turkish fighter jet shot down by Syria on Friday in Syrian waters at a depth of 1,300 meters, Turkish news channels reported on Sunday, without citing a source.

But looking at that map, depth isolines are not marked, making it hard to come to such conclusion as "Waters of that depth don't occur until more than twice that distance from shore". And regarding depth points you do have some at least under 8-10km from shore. Also keep in mind that Territorial Waters are considered those under 12 Nautical Miles (~22km or roughly 15minutes at that latitude)

Edited June 24, 2012 by gammadust

[ProfTournesol 956]

I dunno. Bombing campaign...likely.

Full on invasion I highly doubt.

I don't think so. Any foreign intervention will lead to Iran direct involvement, nobody wants this. Maybe Turkey could do something on his own, as it's a very influent country.

[PELHAM 10]

The report which mentions the depth of 1300m also mentions:

But looking at that map, depth isolines are not marked, making it hard to come to such conclusion as "Waters of that depth don't occur until more than twice that distance from shore". And regarding depth points you do have some at least under 8-10km from shore. Also keep in mind that Territorial Waters are considered those under 12 Nautical Miles (~22km or roughly 15minutes at that latitude)

There are no 1300 depth points under 20km from the shore off Om al-Tuyou where the aircraft is said to have crashed, I would have preferred isolines but good charts are hard to find online. If you look at any radar depth images of the bay off Om al-Tuyou it shows shallow waters. While we can't be certain I'm sure enough to bet my right nut on this lol. Hopefully the Turkish Navy will be good enough to draw a cross on a map for us in the next few days.

PS It's more important to consider where the jet was when it was shot down, not where the wreckage landed.

Looks like the Russians are thick skinned enough to have a second attempt at supplying Syria with attack helicopters, I guess Tetris and mail order brides don't supply enough revenue rofl:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9352852/Russian-arms-ship-to-make-second-attempt-to-deliver-helicopters-to-Syria.html

Edited June 24, 2012 by PELHAM

[spooky lynx 73]

I thought that this plane would be something like gulf of Tonkin incident. But still there's no sh!tstorm over Syria.

[NoRailgunner 0]

Its all speculation until there are facts eg mission of the Turkish Air Force pilots, radio messages/warnings..... rumours said that pilots were on a recon mission and just flew a little bit too far into Syrian airspace while other rumors said that the Syrians were just a little trigger happy and ordered to shoot down any plane that doesn't respond accordingly after the defection of a Syrian pilot with his plane. Guess both sides will blame each other for beeing unprofessional and not using proper means of action + communication. Doubt that NATO will send a retaliation force or something similar....

[spooky lynx 73]

I suppose that plane failed to get any info about air defense of that place before it was shot down. So there won't be any retaliation until proper intel will be gathered.

[oxmox 73]

Syria - What should we do if anything ?

This is for sure a good question, watching a lot of discussions with experts on TV and reading about it I thought I will post some important points which people here dont talk about or people should think about. May english isnt perfect...

With what situations are we confronted, just some issues:

* Syria, 21 million citizen and an Army with modern russian equipment with around 460.000 men

* Syria isnt isolated and backed up by Iran, Russia and China

* an economical conflict about energy when we watch the planned Pipeline system for Gas/Oil

* it is an religious conflict about the power in Syria itself

* the central problem: a strategical conflict exist with the aim to weaken the axis of Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon

Nobody denies the massacres in Syria and the current issues within this conflict, even the witness statements showed by our media is a little bit one sided. And if you think an intervention will help, just have a look what happened with Lybia, after the NATO attacks the country changed into a region of chaos where former "freedom fighters" are gruesome like Gaddafis troops before. By the way the civil war in Lebanon took place for around 15 years.....

Around 12 million Alawites, which are actually secular but shia friendly, are living in Syria who are committed to the current political system and are in key positions, who actually benefit from it. The counterforce to the Assad regime are also hard line Islamists like the Salafi and parts of it Al Quaida members. In Syria a small part are Shiites and 2/3 of the citizen Sunni muslims, 10% christians under the protection of the Alawite regime. If these oppisition groups will succeed and get into power, there will be highly likely bloody fights or even massacres against the Alawites which would fight until the last breath. By the way, the Salafism (Salafi) is the synonym of the severest and most intolerant form of Islam, a sect called Wahabism and is the state religion in Saudi Arabia.

The whole situation in Syria would have been not that explosive when actually the support from abroad in form of weapons or money would be not existent. Probably the riots would have ended already. It is no secret in the meanwhile that countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar are behind the weapon deliveries for the opposition which is coordinated by the USA and adds fuel to the fire.

Syria is not Libya which had only 120.000 men under Gaddafi and has around 6.5 million citizen only. After the NATO did finish their job in Libya the civil war actually worsened, there are estimates from experts which I saw in a political TV discussion that around 60-70.000 victims died in this conflict until now. In Libya exists chaos, the former freedom fighters are gruesome like Gaddafis troops before and there are still Gaddafi supporter who are fighting. It is more worse than before and actually Gaddafi would have stopped the riots, but the NATO effort destroyed his tank columns which did change the overall situation. Currently we see 10.000 deaths in Syria, there will be a lot more if the riots change into a bigger conflict/civil war and especially when foreign troops would join the conflict with military forces.

What do we win, when the western military march in ? It is still a high risk and after so many lost wars i.e. Iraq war lost, Afghanistan lost, we flee form Somalia, in Libya is chaos....I wonder if you have to be crazy to vote for any military intervention to go into Syria. In the meanwhile Islamists get support with weapon deliveries wheras in other regions western military did fight or fighting against them. Nobody talks about the Libya anymore, which was a fail if you see what is going on now.

In Libya the opposition did form already a transitional council before the military intervention, in Syria the opposition groups itself are splintered and quarrelled. There is nobody who would fill the gap after the current regime would be removed.

The central problem:

---> Actually it is not mainly about Syria but rather about the IRAN !

It is well known that the Iran is Shiite, since the year one a historical counterpart to Saudi Arabia with its intolerant Wahabism and in clashes with the Sunnis. It is a strategical conflict to weaken the consistently stretch of land Iran-Iraq-Syria. Iran and Iraq is mainly and governed by Shiites, in Syria the Allewites feel associated with the Shiites and the stretch is even longer if you take the Lebanon into consideration with its Hizbolla, which represent Shiite muslims aswell. An strategical interest exist to weaken the links and to weaken the Iran itself, therefore Syria gets battered.

By the way this is not the first Islamic uprising in Syria, from 1976-1982 Sunni Islamists, tried to overthrow the Assad regime aswell. The first one in 1964.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_uprising_in_Syria

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Hama_riot

Edited June 26, 2012 by oxmox

[PELHAM 10]

Syria - What should we do if anything ?

This is for sure a good question, watching a lot of discussions with experts on TV and reading about it I thought I will post some important points which people here dont talk about or people should think about. May english isnt perfect...

I say lets hear from the Syrian's themselves........what is it they want, no one has bothered to ask yet:

92cFTuDHwa8

One of the defectors, Colonel Abdal Fareed Zakaria, spoke excusively to Al Jazeera.

He says President Bashar al-Assad's forces are in disarray.

He also says more soldiers want to defect, but there are serious risks, and the international community isn't helping.

[oxmox 73]

You should read more about the riots and especially about the religious clashes in Syria to understand the conflict. "The Syrians" dont exists like you think, there are many different religious groups in Syria and a struggle for power between certain groups of them.

[spooky lynx 73]

One of the defectors, Colonel Abdal Fareed Zakaria, spoke excusively to Al Jazeera.

He says President Bashar al-Assad's forces are in disarray.

He also says more soldiers want to defect, but there are serious risks, and the international community isn't helping.

And does he have an option to say something else?:confused:

[PELHAM 10]

You should read more about the riots and especially about the religious clashes in Syria to understand the conflict. "The Syrians" dont exists like you think, there are many different religious groups in Syria and a struggle for power between certain groups of them.

I know all about that, when I say Syrian's I mean all groups. What exists now in Syria, a family dynasty which murders people at will, can't realistically continue. The army only continues to fight because they fear the consequences if they refuse to obey orders. Condemning millions of people to that sort of life because you don't want the majority Sunni in power is rather absurd. Authoritarian communism, family dynasties and dictatorships never work in the long run.

Syria has had a state of emergency since 1963 allowing the security services to do as they like. The current indescriminate use of force against civilians is nothing new, it's been occurring for decades. eg: In 1982 between 17,000 and 40,000 people were killed in Hama, the attack was described as one of "the single deadliest acts by any Arab government against its own people in the modern Middle East".

And does he have an option to say something else?:confused:

Now he is no longer in Syria he can say anything he likes, must be a new experience for him. I read something interesting about Russian support for Assad (and other violent dictators) here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18462813

Russia's political class never accepted concepts like "responsibility to protect", which aim to limit the ability of authoritarian governments to repress their own people. Sovereignty, to the Russian leadership, means an unlimited licence for governments to do as they please within their national borders.

I guess this is why many people often find the Russian attitude to basic human rights and freedoms perplexing.

Check out this tactic, refusing to issue passports and denying people statehood is an effective means of punishing opposition and is used by many dictatorships worldwide:

RcLVwzhP_gU

Edited June 26, 2012 by PELHAM

[dysta 10]

Another news has been spread: the Turkish rescue plane was shot during the wreckage searching by Syrian AA gun, yet it's not down and was returned.

[spooky lynx 73]

Now he is no longer in Syria he can say anything he likes, must be a new experience for him.

And he's defector and another 'spokesman' of opposition. So I ask again: does he have an option to say something else than that 'truth' about bloody regime killing innocent people, total support of population and other stuff?

[PELHAM 10]

And he's defector and another 'spokesman' of opposition. So I ask again: does he have an option to say something else than that 'truth' about bloody regime killing innocent people, total support of population and other stuff?

He is not a spokesman for the opposition, he is simply putting his own views to the media. You will note that people inside Syria are not freely able to do so as there is no free press and the international media are not allowed in the country (obviously they are hiding something). For doing so he would probably be arrested, tortured and killed along with family members. As he is now in Turkey which is a more democratic and free country than either Syria or Russia he can say whatever he likes. I refer you to the democracy index (Syria and Russia seem to have much in common there too lol):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

88 Turkey 5.73 Hybrid regime Parliamentary republic

117 Russia 3.92 Authoritarian regime Federalism, semi-presidential system, bicameralism

157 Syria 1.99 Authoritarian regime Presidential system, single party, republic

Edited June 26, 2012 by PELHAM

[batto 17]

You will note that people inside Syria are not freely able to do so as there is no free press and the international media are not allowed in the country (obviously they are hiding something). For doing so he would probably be arrested, tortured and killed along with family members.

Well, at least he can pray to christian god and not be shot in the head by freedom fighters for doing so. Or he can work as state clerk and not being thrown out of window by freedom fighters because he's somehow linked to President Assad. Or he can live without danger of being murdered by freedom fighters for another Look! Massacre! Bad Assad! propaganda video.

Oh wait, it's you! Why am I talking to you... Just forget it.

EDIT: I'm not siding with anyone. I just hate how some people try to play it on "poor Syrians wants freedom" morale crap.

Edited June 26, 2012 by batto

[Mr. Charles 22]

Or he can work as state clerk and not being thrown out of window by freedom fighters because he's somehow linked to President Assad.

Seen it.

Canis Canem edit.

[maturin 12]

I just hate how some people try to play it on "poor Syrians wants freedom" morale crap.

Are you stupid? People don't like to live under dictatorships that massacre tens of thousand of their people (referring to the prior rebellions, not this one). Does this really need to be debated, or have all gone irrevocably far down the faux-Chomsky, fight-the-power, NWO, cynical bullshit rabbit hole to be helped?

Nothing in wanting freedom from a brutal dictatorship, which is what the Syrians want (even if they think Assad remains the lesser of multiple evils), is incompatible with human rights abuses, religious violence, false flag operations, etc. The Syrians want freedom. Freedom fighters can be terrorists. Most of them aren't.

[batto 17]

Are you stupid? People don't like to live under dictatorships that massacre tens of thousand of their people (referring to the prior rebellions, not this one). Does this really need to be debated, or have all gone irrevocably far down the faux-Chomsky, fight-the-power, NWO, cynical bullshit rabbit hole to be helped?

Nothing in wanting freedom from a brutal dictatorship, which is what the Syrians want (even if they think Assad remains the lesser of multiple evils), is incompatible with human rights abuses, religious violence, false flag operations, etc. The Syrians want freedom.

Oh really? There's more countries with people who don't like to live under dictatorships that massacre tens of thousand of their people. Why should I care about Syria? How big fraction of Syrian people want regime change? Why is Saudi Arabia OK? Please enlighten me.

Freedom fighters can be terrorists. Most of them aren't.

Doubtful. I'd say opposite.

[-GR-Operative 10]

I say lets hear from the Syrian's themselves........what is it they want, no one has bothered to ask yet:

92cFTuDHwa8

One of the defectors, Colonel Abdal Fareed Zakaria, spoke excusively to Al Jazeera.

He says President Bashar al-Assad's forces are in disarray.

He also says more soldiers want to defect, but there are serious risks, and the international community isn't helping.

The opinion of ONE counts as the opinion of millions. Makes total sense.

[maturin 12]

There's more countries with people who don't like to live under dictatorships that massacre tens of thousand of their people.

Is this a sentence?

Why should I care about Syria?

I don't recall saying that you should. I have learned not to argue with people who think that apologizing for tyrants and murderers on other continents is the best way to express displeasure with the foreign policy of their own government.

How big fraction of Syrian people want regime change?

A big fraction, otherwise the fighting would have ended quickly, and Syria's powerful military would have turned this into a low-key counterinsurgency operation rather than showing signs of disintegration. After Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain do we really still have to actually make the argument that Arab despots are not popular? When you rule through violence and the economy sucks, people want you gone. This doesn't excuse violence necessarily, or mean that intervention is called for, it's just true. So ffs, get on board with basics.

Why is Saudi Arabia OK?

Do I look like the U.S. State Department to you?!?

Doubtful. I'd say opposite.

Tens of thousands of terrorist fighters is a fantasy that only exists for Ghaddafi, Putin and Rumsfeld.

[oxmox 73]

Just look what happened with Libya, chaos and a desaster after Gaddafi is gone. Of course Gaddafi deserved a bullet to his head, but it is a scandal that only a short time before the western world were shaking hands with him like a good friend. The so called Freedom Fighters did no just kill him, they did torture and ffs stake him...this is not the way how you treat people in the name of freedom and democracy.

Do you know who was the highest ranked rebel leader and has a key position in Libya now ?

Abdelhakim Belhadj, Salafist and a former Islamist fighter in the Soviet-Afghanistan war. He did join the Taliban and had close ties with Al Quaida, imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay.

Iam for sure not defending the Assad Regime, but you have to see that the situation in Syria is complicated. Around 2.1 million christians are living in Syria, around 10% of the population. Some of them are refugees from Iraq who got pursued and got protection from the Alawite regime. Allegedly 10-15.000 did flee from Hama in other regions of Syria since they got into the clashes between the muslim groups struggling for power.

Like I wrote before, what do we win when a military intervention would happen ? This would not solve the conflict, since the rivalry between the muslim groups would not just end. Look at Libya and how bloody the situation is now, in Syria it would be probably a human desaster with way more deaths than just 10k people. There is no transitional council, on the contrary the opposition groups are quarreled. The situation doesnt look that it could be solved by only sending troops into the country.

With the help from abroad in form of money and weapons the conflict got strengthened, it just adds fuel to the fire. But at the end it is not solely about Syria, to weaken the Iran is still a strategical aim and Syria is one of the key role.

Edited June 26, 2012 by oxmox

[Tijai 1]

Why? is this true?

British forces in syria?

http://www.rt.com/news/damascus-battle-uk-forces-syria-768/

[PELHAM 10]

Operative;2179214']The opinion of ONE counts as the opinion of millions. Makes total sense.

Never said that did I, it was never meant to be anything more than one example, we rarely get to see interviews with ordinary Syrians because they know if they talk to the press it ends up with a 'holiday' with the Mokhaberat, possibly followed up with a bullet in the back of the head. I would ask millions of Syrians if I could, problem is you can't, because free speech isn't tollerated. Until we get an election no one knows. If Assad really is that popular why doesn't he hold a free and fair election. If the man is really loved by a majority he will win.

Incidentally, the Mokhaberat was set up with the help of the Stasi in East Germany and is modelled on it. The Syrians sent members of it's security services to be trained and to learn from the East German example. The East German's of course learned from the fine example of the MVD and KGB. Funny how the Soviet hangover is still with us after all this time.

Edited June 26, 2012 by PELHAM

[oxmox 73]

Do you think that free elections currently would make any sense with the current hate between the muslim groups ? The Assad Regime is an hideous dictate, but is it worse than others. Is Saudi Arabia a democratic nation for example, where woman get stoned to death or heads get knocked off ? What about the bloody oppression in Bahrain, where tanks did fight opposition groups on the street ? Syria is the last secular nation in the whole arabic world by the way, its the question if the Syrians would get anything better after the fall of the Assad regime. The religous group Alewites, a minority which leads this country, are not really loved in the muslim world with its rather esoteric religious parts and rather seen as heretic. The massacre and riots between 197x and 198x were terrible and a crime, but did you actually read what the so called "Muslim Brotherhood" did stand for in this time ? Its a tragedy...no doubt and there will be victims, doesnt matter in which direction the country will go.

Edited June 26, 2012 by oxmox