Ukraine General

[sudayev 27]

They just have to convince another country to deploy peacekeeping troops, quite unlikely without a UN resolution of the UNSC (where Russia would obviously vote against).

Ukraine is not a NATO member, so it's unlikely that the US or other NATO members want to deploy their troops.

Maybe not NATO... but for sure they can hire mercenaries from any country

[gammadust 12]

Common sense? Did the fighting occur on Ukrainian or rebel territory? Answer that question.

Gladly. My answer to you and as can be verified by OSCE reports is: fighting occured on both Ukrainian and "rebel" territory.

You wish to convince me that the fighting only occurred in Marinka? "Common sense" will tell you the fighting occurred on both sides of the original line (in between Marinka and Petrovski districts). But critically beyond common sense, i have already put up a map of the disputed area which comprises around 10km (15km if we include Kirovsky), well within the range of the heavy artillery weapons reported by OSCE to have been used as verified by their sightings of "fress impacts" in Kirovski.

I hate to repeat myself but what happened in what is being designated by Marynka, by OSCE account, is contiguous in time and location with the Petrovs'kyi/Kirovs'kyi district (Donetsk), check map:

http://i.imgur.com/6kSUaCzl.png

started on June 1st don't just look at the Spot Report.

(and here i am repeating this point a third time...)

The fact that the fighting proceeded offensively into Marinka cannot be isolated from it all. Unless in your opinion it can be isolated, and there is not point in me repeating why given the areas being contiguous, they should be considered too (for a forth time)

---

It's nice because the OSCE reports even count the amount of artillery shells that fell into civilian areas, specifying even the nature and sometimes even its caliber. They also indicate from where they were shot aprox and the amount of victims (they even quote local sources).

But you only need to go back to my first and second(!) replies to you, regarding Marinka, to see me quote one of those reports MistyRonin!? What gives? Bringing to light those reports was exacly how i advanced my arguement with you...

1st

as of 19:30 (Kyiv time), 2 June 2015

On 2 June, while at the JCCC observation point at the Donetsk central railway station (“DPRâ€-controlled, 8km north-west of Donetsk city centre) the SMM heard a total of 126 explosions. Between 12:19 and 13:01hrs, the SMM heard 64 distant explosions, barely audible, from the south-south-west. Between 13:26 and 17:15hrs the SMM heard a total of 62 explosions and 20 bursts of small arms fire.

(...)

Based on information received from the “DPRâ€, the SMM monitored three sites in Donetsk city’s Kirovskyi district (“DPRâ€-controlled, 6.2km south-west of Donetsk city centre) where it observed fresh impacts on each site. On the first site the SMM observed an impact on the north side of the building on its second floor. On the second site, the SMM, based on an impact analysis, its angle and diameter, estimated that an artillery round of a calibre of at least 122mm incoming from the north-north-west, had penetrated the asphalt but did not detonate. On the third site, the SMM observed a crater which, based on its angle, it estimated to be from an unspecified artillery piece incoming from the same north-north-west direction. Local residents said to the SMM that on 1 June they heard approximately ten mostly incoming explosions between 19:00 and 19:30hrs.

my emphasis

Aparently there is a longer story begining earlier in the 2nd of June.

and 2nd

Take the Kirovskyi district and Gorlovka last week (26 May).

The SMM saw the aftermath of shelling in “DPRâ€-controlled Horlivka (39km north-north-east of Donetsk). Residents, including one injured by the shelling, told the SMM that shells struck at 18:00hrs on 26 May. The SMM saw nine crater impacts (all within a radius of 200 metres) at three locations in residential areas and conducted crater analysis at one location. At this location, the SMM saw the body of a deceased woman close to two crater impacts. The SMM estimated that the craters were caused by incoming artillery from the north-north-west. In both craters the SMM found shrapnel consistent with 122mm artillery. The SMM saw a house in Planernaya Street that had sustained a direct hit that destroyed the eastern facade, and found shrapnel consistent with 122mm artillery. At this location the SMM saw traces of blood. According to the “DPR†“emergency services†and local residents, a 38 year old man and his 11 year old daughter were killed instantly in this strike and his wife and two young children had been hospitalized with injuries. At City Central Hospital No.2 the SMM spoke with the wounded mother. She and her children had suffered shrapnel wounds. Later, the SMM saw three bodies at the mortuary (one a middle aged man, one woman and a child). The SMM assessed that all three were victims of the shelling.

my emphasis

Why are you apparently presuming I haven't done that? That i'm not aware of it, did you overlook the citations of those OSCE reports? They're actually critical for you to understand my point, nevermind, who knows even accept it.

---

Just read the d... OSCE reports of the last month! And you'll notice how the only side that started a large scale offensive was the Pro-Russian.

my emphasis

Point 1. But if we have to consider as far back in time as you appear to be suggesting (and I am not saying that we should not, mind you), will we still be talking about this Marinka escalation (events of OSCE Spot Report of June the 2nd) ? From which point in time then should we consider that the escalation took place? Honest question.

Point 2. It is the second time in this discussion that to back an assertion of yours, you genericaly send me towards OSCE reports without linking me to any one specifically. If you are saying something with that degree of certainty you surely know on which report you are basing it off from. Or not?

Notice that I haven't done that to you, and all assertions i made, i provided you an exact link to back them. It is the normal conduct in a discussion i expect, specially one so disputed.

BTW i am still waiting for your answer about that first time:

Thesis* that is easy to defeat by just checking any of the numerous reports of shellings on both sides where even more civilians were killed. And nothing happened. So your thesis is wrong, and you have all the OSCE reports of casualties as proof.

[*thesis being: the DPR/LPR side are reacting en force to attacks were civillians were killed.]

But please do tell me, point me the last OSCE report you found where the above happened.

Edited June 5, 2015 by gammadust

[mistyronin 1181]

Notice that I haven't done that to you, and all assertions i made, i provided you an exact link to back them. It is the normal conduct in a discussion i expect, specially one so disputed.

There is no worse blind man than the one who doesn't want to see.

There's no discussion here. The Pro-Russian side launched a big offensive in Marinka. The OSCE recognized and reported it.

If you want to check all the different shelling on civilian areas and civilian deads, you have all the OSCE reports, additionally to the ones I quoted myself in this thread. Just reviewed the reports of the week before the Marinka offensive, there the OSCE team comment thousands of shelling on civilian areas on both sides:

- May 27th: impacts on houses, civilian corpses on the street, check for instance , both sides involved;

- May 22nd: factory shelled with a Ukrainian worker dead).

- May 21st: Ukrainian civilian garages shelled and damaged.

- May 20th: A pro-Russian civilian house damaged by a mortar shell, and a second in a garden damaging several civilian houses (locals says that shelling occurs often there close to Mariupol).

Etc.

BTW also interesting on May 28th:

In Petrivske (“DPRâ€-controlled, 38km south-east of Donetsk) the SMM spoke to a young man who said that the former local holiday camp was currently occupied by an unknown armed group. He could not specify for how long this armed group had been stationed in the village. In the village the SMM spoke to two women, both wearing military uniforms, with caps with Russian Federation Armed Forces insignia. They said that they were from Kramatorsk. During the conversation with the two women a vehicle with Russian Federation number plates stopped next to the OSCE vehicles and two armed men, similarly dressed, exited the car and ordered the women to stop the conversation with the SMM. Behind a tall fence inside the holiday camp, the SMM observed one infantry fighting vehicle.

At a checkpoint on the outskirts of “DPRâ€-controlled Makiivka (10km east of Donetsk), the SMM observed a child, approximately 12-14 years old, wearing a camouflage uniform and holding an AK-47 rifle.

[gammadust 12]

There is no worse blind man than the one who doesn't want to see.

You are not expecting me to guess what you were seeing until you become specific, are you? My vision is fine thank you.

I did find the report where the coke-plant worker is told to be killed. Had i checked back in time a few days before the 26th and i would have seen it. The other events in the reports you mention, obviously, were not in question.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces Major-General at the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC) headquarters in Soledar (government-controlled, 77km north-north-east of Donetsk) told the SMM that the coke and chemical plant in Avdiivka (government-controlled, 17km north-north-west of Donetsk) had been shelled on 21 May. The Chief Engineer of the plant later corroborated the information, telling the SMM that thirty 120mm mortars had impacted in the plant, killing one worker and injuring two.

But where does that leave us in regards to the thesis that this was a reaction to attacks where civilians were killed? Is it that outlandish that either side was prone to escalate given those events?

Civilian casualties is just the type of thing that flares things up, specially if there are close bonds involved with those in the frontlines. IMO the thesis still stands and i am not willing to merely dismiss it. This is not to say that there may not be any other reasons for escalation, of course.

PS: Next time would you provide direct links? There are several news items each day, since they were readily available to you, and i had the courtesy to do so?

---

There's no discussion here. The Pro-Russian side launched a big offensive in Marinka. The OSCE recognized and reported it.

But there is! You continue to reiterate "The Pro-Russian side launched a big offensive in Marinka." and proceed "The OSCE recognized and reported it.", despite OSCE not using any of those terms at all:

from the introduction of the Spot Report in addition to your original citation

Fighting erupted around the government-controlled town of Marinka (23km west-south-west of Donetsk city centre) in the morning of 3 June. The SMM observed the movement of a large amount of heavy weapons in “Donetsk People’s Republic†(“DPRâ€)-controlled areas – generally in a westerly direction towards the contact line – close to Marinka, preceding and during the fighting. Calm was restored by the early evening.

At best, facts as presented by OSCE allow you to conclude something along those lines. Now OSCE "recognizing" such conclusion is your mental shortcut to dramatise it along with a certain bias.

"big offensive" - nowhere to be found, they are quantitative instead, while describing the movements of such and such weapon and in which direction, "offensive" is never mentioned. Note that i am not disputing such movements as constituting an "offensive", i am just pointing out OSCE does not "recognise" such qualifier.

"in Marinka" - is quite different than "around Marinka", "close to Marinka", are some of the expressions used when "recognising" such. OSCE describes events not confined to Marinka, this is specially relevant given the tendency in this discussion to assume otherwise (ie. that only Marinka was a target)

And now, probably the worse culprit of our disagreement:

"The Pro-Russian side launched" - the first exchange of the Spot Report is "between 04:30 and 04:40hrs" and can be assumed to be originating from DPR forces, but given the exchanges occurring in the afternoon of 1 June and during the whole of 2 June, provided in the daily reports, considering both the heavy type and the contiguous locations, can we presume that these exchanges are disconnected? That one does not motivate the other? Put another way, given the available data and it's continuity, is it not natural to keep track of the event as a whole, independently of posterior conclusions?

In my opinion keeping the event as a whole is necessary given the sensivity of the issue and the stakes here.

It's like showing a friend only the 2nd half of a football match and missing the goals scored by the teams in the 1st half (while having the tape of the full match).

Edited June 6, 2015 by gammadust
minor additions, corrections, emphasis

[Bucic 1]

OSCE:

There are so few OSCE observers pro-Russian and Russian forces can easily track them and avoid them. Not to mention the Russian 'partners' in OSCE have some say on what areas will be monitored. But it's troublesome and the forces could accidentally stumble upon OSCE so for guaranteed comfort...

https://twitter.com/UKinUkraine/status/606378593892089857

[beastcat 14]

Why is this still a discussion? The separatists launched an offensive on Marinka, breaking the relative peace. There were no separatists there, then they came, died a bit and left. The end.

In the attack they reportedly killed at least about ~30 people and attacked with about ~10 tanks, that is a huge difference to the usual 2-4 dead due to shelling in the entire area.

Edited June 6, 2015 by beastcat

[mistyronin 1181]

Gammadust this is getting pathetic.

I posted a link of a OSCE report and my commentary. You accused me of hiding information, and all kind of weird stuff... (when in this forum no one has to justify their commentaries).

You asked me facts. I gave you facts and where to find them.

You accused me again unfoundedly of hiding information. I gave you the exact dates of the reports detailing the exact incidents.

You keep stubbornly defending your parallel reality, caring none about any facts, reality, proof, OSCE reports or anything.

As you only seem to care about exculpating the Pro-Russians no matter what and argue for the sake of it, even if you are proven wrong by diff users over and over (users that BTW have been informing on the matter since it began, so they know well their stuff, you can just check all the 836 pages of this thread), in addition you don't add any relevant information on Ukraine in this thread. That's why I will ignore your posts from now on. My time is too precious.

[gammadust 12]

Why is this still a discussion? The separatists launched an offensive on Marinka, breaking the relative peace. There were no separatists there, then they came, died a bit and left. The end.

In the attack they reportedly killed at least about ~30 people and attacked with about ~10 tanks, that is a huge difference to the usual 2-4 dead due to shelling in the entire area.

Because i am noticing we are letting ourselves jump into conclusions far to easily, on a undoubtedly too important issue: that of assigning responsibility to either side in matter that risks further escalation.

Also i just noticed on the very Spot Report, apparently overlooked by all, that:

In addition, the SMM – at the same location – heard approximately 100 outgoing artillery rounds fired from a location 1-5km north-north-west of its position between 04:30 and 04:40hrs; an outgoing salvo of BM-21 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) Grad rockets fired from a location 1-5km west of its position at 04:55hrs; and, 100 outgoing artillery rounds fired from a location 5km north-north-west of its position.

Between 04:30 and 05:00hrs, the SMM – positioned in Donetsk city-centre – heard several salvos of outgoing MLRS rockets and approximately 100 incoming heavy-artillery rounds.

my emphasis

...this actualy makes me reevalute something i assumed previously (that DPR forces alone where involved in events around 4am), otherwise only reinforcing my whole point, since incoming heavy artillery at that time proves UAF was involved too. Ultimately showing that facts do not allow any of us to take any conclusion of who started what. At best both sides are responsible for whatever initiated around 4am June the 3rd.

Gammadust this is getting pathetic.

I posted a link of a OSCE report and my commentary.

Comment and opinion which i challenged, supposedly nothing abnormal. Right? Why victimising yourself for that?

You accused me of hiding information, and all kind of weird stuff... (when in this forum no one has to justify their commentaries).

You asked me facts. I gave you facts and where to find them.

You accused me again unfoundedly of hiding information. I gave you the exact dates of the reports detailing the exact incidents.

No one has to justify himself of course, but you felt compelled to anyway in counter-argumenting, maybe you found my argument solid or not at all, which is all good. But just only in your last post did you reluctantly provide the sources for the allegations you had used before. Don't blame me for asking you to do reveal your sources until you actually do it.

You keep stubbornly defending your parallel reality, caring none about any facts, reality, proof, OSCE reports or anything.

There you are again, it is those type of comments that make this pathetic indeed. Since the beginning, i brought forward to this discussion multiple facts along with their respective sources, caring a lot about them, apparently more than you. It is only expected that in regards to facts presented by you i can only consider them when you provide the source (ie. not at the end of the discussion). How can you honestly claim otherwise? That comment is ludicrous.

As you only seem to care about exculpating the Pro-Russians no matter what and argue for the sake of it, even if you are proven wrong by diff users over and over (users that BTW have been informing on the matter since it began, so they know well their stuff, you can just check all the 836 pages of this thread), in addition you don't add any relevant information on Ukraine in this thread.

Aside of Tonci87 which questioned where the events took place, and along with beastcat, only repeated the same thing you had defended, the latter which in the same stroke diminished the value of OSCE reports in this discussion. That does not constitute disproof of anything i said. I am sorry. And neither is this arguing for the sake of it, just because you consider the information i brought to the table irrelevant, that is still a matter of opinion. It is up to those who are reading us to evaluate if the remainder of the reports i quoted and the facts therin are relevant or not.

That's why I will ignore your posts from now on. My time is too precious.

Suit yourself. I am not very interested in spending my time with such a cheap parody of arguments either.

[beastcat 14]

Because i am noticing we are letting ourselves jump into conclusions far to easily, on a undoubtedly too important issue: that of assigning responsibility to either side in matter that risks further escalation.

Its not about responsibility, its about the separatists launching a full scale offensive. There is no risk of escalation, this is the escalation.

And if you are really on about responsibility so much, why do you have to make it so dodgy? There is only one side that launched an offensive.

[Tonci87 163]

Preciselly my point, there is only one side that went into the territory of the other side, that side is therefore considered to be the attacker. Since Separatists advanced into Ukraine controlled Marinka they were the agressor. Plain and simple.

[oxmox 73]

In the wake of the events in Marinka, Ukrainian officials had to admit they used heavy weaponry (New Zealand Herald, June 7th)

proscribed under the cease-fire agreement in their battle to hold onto the town.

Such arms may give their users power but they have proven disastrously imprecise. The trail of destruction created by the Marinka unrest led deep into Donetsk, where part of a market was burned to the ground after being struck by a projectile.

OSCE accounts also indicate that rebels haven't refrained from deploying multiple rocket launchers and several other weapons prohibited from being anywhere near the front.

In Dokuchayevsk, rebel fighters say the shelling has worsened in the last two weeks and that the Ukrainian army has taken to using Grad rocket launchers and large-caliber artillery, along with the usual mortars and tanks. Relatively fresh impact craters seen on the grounds of an oil depot in the town Friday were several feet deep " a potential confirmation of that claim.

Seems like both did violence the Minsk agreement....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11461139

[Tonci87 163]

Seems like both did violence the Minsk agreement....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11461139

Certainly. Both sides have been shelling and shooting each other, always blaming the other side for starting it. Both sides have been keeping some heavy weapons near the fron. But only one side launched an outright attack into the territory of the other side.

That is the most serious violation up to date.

[mistyronin 1181]

Seems like both did violate the Minsk agreement....

I don't think anyone doubts that. OSCE reports show it clearly. There's been shelling and clashes, even during the meetings in Minsk and Minsk 2.

Said that. As Tonci well said, the Pro-Russian offensive in Marinka is the most serious violation up to date, and by far.

Edited June 6, 2015 by MistyRonin

[St. Jimmy 272]

This captured guy says there's ~200 dead in Marinka and many wounded on the Ukraine side. If those numbers are true and they're only about the one side then the fighting has been pretty big in Marinka.

[oxmox 73]

I agree that an attack on territory is of course very questionable, especially if the the aim exists to widen out the territory. At the end its also about civilians, those are the most helpless victims in a war and therefore hard to judge what is more serious.

Edited June 6, 2015 by oxmox

[Bucic 1]

https://www.yo utube.com/watch?v=8nOolfbYcWo

This captured guy says there's ~200 dead in Marinka and many wounded on the Ukraine side. If those numbers are true and they're only about the one side then the fighting has been pretty big in Marinka.

"200" and "300" are codenames for dead and wounded respectively. I think he got confused in the end. 200 dead in a day of fighting. That sounds more like a headcount realistic in case of the summer of 2014 counteroffensive with direct involvment of Russian forces.

Edited June 6, 2015 by Bucic

[St. Jimmy 272]

"200" and "300" are codenames for dead and wounded respectively. I think he got confused in the end. 200 dead in a day of fighting. That sounds more like a headcount realistic in case of the summer of 2014 counteroffensive with full involvment of Russian forces.

Yeah 300 and 200 are also codenames but at first he says in his group there was 2 200s (2 dead) and 1 300s (1 wounded) and then he said overall in Marinka 200 dead and many wounded. I've gone through some Russian comments and they're confirming him saying actually 200 got killed. It's not a translation error.

This could also be a proof that they're putting words in prisoner's mouth and he got confused what he was going to say. Or that it was actually a pretty big fight.

Well at least OSCE reports say that DPR side had reported 25 dead military and 84 wounded military in that day. I'd guess the dead count is really more.

[beastcat 14]

http://youtu.be/gY8dkejkk5Y

How long are we still going to believe these videos of "captured" "soldiers"?

This could also be a proof that they're putting words in prisoner's mouth and he got confused what he was going to say. Or that it was actually a pretty big fight

Or its just total BS propaganda, like all the other countless times.


Also he is saying that the army attacked the separatist controlled Maryinka, even though we know it was the other way around, so its more likely that more separatists got captured.

http://youtu.be/8oiFSWnG-HE

I do not condone this treatment of prisoners btw, but its still worlds better than what we see from the separatists side, like cutting of ears, forcing them to dig their own graves and so on.




Meanwhile in Rostov

http://youtu.be/vthMoNWRqZY

Edited June 7, 2015 by beastcat

[Bucic 1]

Yeah 300 and 200 are also codenames but at first he says in his group there was 2 200s (2 dead) and 1 300s (1 wounded) and then he said overall in Marinka 200 dead and many wounded. I've gone through some Russian comments and they're confirming him saying actually 200 got killed. It's not a translation error.

This could also be a proof that they're putting words in prisoner's mouth and he got confused what he was going to say. Or that it was actually a pretty big fight.

Well at least OSCE reports say that DPR side had reported 25 dead military and 84 wounded military in that day. I'd guess the dead count is really more.

This would be my guess. Even if you say the truth and you're in a state of high stress any random number adjacent to the number you want to say out loud can disturb the process of actual articulation.

[Tonci87 163]

Don´t believe ANYTHING captured soldiers tell in front of a camera. The only thing that you can believe is when they tell who they are and to what unit they belong, because that stuff is easy to verify. Everything else they are mostly forced to say.

That applies both to Ukrainian and Rebel POWs. 200 dead on the defender side in only one day is a seriously exagerated number.

Since the Ukrainian army was defending and had entrenched positions to fight from and to fall back to, their losses are likely to be much lower than those of the separatists. By that logic the separatists would have lost over 300 men in that attack if that soldier was telling the truth (wich he obviously isn´t).

[beastcat 14]

Did you guys even watch my post? Hes not even a soldier, hes an actor!

[Tonci87 163]

Did you guys even watch my post? Hes not even a soldier, hes an actor!

Well you should provide more context when posting videos, simply putting a russian video in there and expecting that we all understand what it is about is not enough. So that guy is an actor?

[beastcat 14]

Well you should provide more context when posting videos, simply putting a russian video in there and expecting that we all understand what it is about is not enough. So that guy is an actor?

I thought the different dates would make it obvious, but I sometimes forget not everybody speaks russian. :D

Anyway, the same guy supposedly played a captured right sector member back in Slovyansk.

To me those guys actually don't look the same on a second look, but theres this video:

Here he says that he did not fight in Maryinka (Because he was buying alcoholic supplies) and that he has no idea about any casualties.

Edited June 7, 2015 by beastcat

[St. Jimmy 272]

I thought the different dates would make it obvious, but I sometimes forget not everybody speaks russian. :D

Anyway, the same guy supposedly played a captured right sector member back in Slovyansk.

To me those guys actually don't look the same on a second look, but theres this video:

Here he says that he did not fight in Maryinka (Because he was buying alcoholic supplies) and that he has no idea about any casualties.

Nice video. That's looks like it was filmed maybe couple days before the press interview. At least his bruise looks more fresh in that video. And Graham Phillips got both of those videos in his channel so it would be interesting to hear his opinion about that.

[mistyronin 1181]

Nice video. That's looks like it was filmed maybe couple days before the press interview. At least his bruise looks more fresh in that video. And Graham Phillips got both of those videos in his channel so it would be interesting to hear his opinion about that.

By Graham Phillips you mean that disgrace of "journalist" that is so biased that even participate in the fight using Pro-Russian weapons... also records himself getting wasted and dancing with them...? :rolleyes:

Edited June 7, 2015 by MistyRonin