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walker

Very Unprofessional Assassins

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Perhaps it's because they have an international arrest warrant out on the murders?

Hi Baff1

Only they did not get away with it did they. They got IDed and Two of their Assets have been captured. Check the latest reports.

The Agents cost probably millions to train.

Hi matey, the latest report I've seen is 37 mins ago (5:40 PM GMT).

No mention of any captured agents yet.

I don't suppose it costs millions to train an agent.

They just get some ex army service guys of which everyone in Israel is.

What training does he need?

Edited by Baff1

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Perhaps it's because they have an international arrest warrant out on the murders?

Hi matey, the latest report I've seen is 37 mins ago (5:40 PM GMT).

No mention of any captured agents yet.

I don't suppose it costs millions to train an agent.

They just get some ex army service guys of which everyone in Israel is.

What training does he need?

Hi Baff1

Various sources are carrying the report here is an Israeli one; to show it is not biassed or a false trail.

PA says won't reveal identity of Dubai assassin suspects

Hamas claims arrest of two Palestinians, who served in Palestinian security forces, proves that Fatah was involved in assassination of Mabhouh. Palestinian Authority denies allegations: If this is true, Hamas can reveal their identities ...

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3849818,00.html

As always follow the link for the full story:

Kind Regards walker

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Takes a lot of resource to pull something like that off. You continue to say they did it in an amatuer fashion, but ultimately it was done.

Doing it in a hotel wasn't a bad idea, out on the street there are too many variables in my opinion, even more witnesses etc. At least at a hotel the target is confined, hidden in a room. The method might not have been orthodox, although it worked, didn't make mess and/or noise anyway.

In addition if you could reference to the news article that says they have caught two people responsible?

Doesn't costs millions to teach someone to kill. Also i'm sure they have used deniable people.

Anyway i'm certainly not an expert or have any real knowledge on assassinations and/or government agencies and methods. I'm merely speculating and offering a differing opinion. Just like everyone else.

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Hmmm.... that's interesting. If it was PA sponsored, that really would be amazing.

Internecine fighting is a bichwa. :doh:

Edited by TRexian

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Hi Scotty Boy

The 4 man action team were probably former or serving special forces soldiers. Those are what most nations use for such work. Their training is not cheap but you will not find it in any nations budget. Such budgets probably got lost in the logistics and the toilet roll provision.

The Agents providing surveillance and technical support are even more expensive to train, they will have had similar training to the special forces guys plus masses more besides; as they have to be in the eye of foreign security services for years at a time. They would normally have had years of training; they are normally recruited from the best of the best of a nations universities, though in this case I think you may be right and they may be just amateurs brought in for this one off.

The Operational commander would usually be some one of considerable experience though how they got suckered into, or were so incompetent as to be, showing their knickers seems to belie that.

The more I look at it the more I am convinced it was amateur hour.

Maybe an element linked to a particular political mover off running his own operations?

Or some one fooled into being stupid by another political player looking to drop them in it. In which case I would be terrified to be one of the involved agents as they will almost certainly get burned or worse as part of the deal.

The possibility is high that they were suckered into showing their knickers by some one using the target as the worm on the hook.

The blinding fast reaction by Dubai with all the assassination team tracked almost inch by inch while the target is no where nearly as well tracked.

The fact the target a supposed top level asset, in a multi million dollar organisation with nation state support and supposedly training, who has escaped several previous attempts on his life; has on this occasion no counter surveillance or close protection team and does not employ any counter surveillance techniques what so ever. That is just way weird.

Kind regards walker

Edited by walker

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I absolutely agree that there are aspects of this that are just plain weird :) but I disagree with your conclusion.

For one thing, the "blinding fast" reaction by Dubai took 9 days, or more. :lol: The initial knee jerk popular response was that it was the Israelis (not saying it was incorrect, just that they always get the initial blame). The early official statements were that it could have been a criminal act. It was only much more recently - about 3 weeks after the actual murder - that the officials began alluding to a gov't-sponsored assassination. Alot of police work can happen in 9 days, or even 3 weeks. It certainly helped that there were so many CCTV cameras.

Plus, keep in mind, there is likely to be very much that Dubai is NOT publicizing for various reasons.

And it is much too early to say that Dubai tracked the team "inch by inch." Perhaps they did, but they have not shown alot of the things that one could expect. Maybe they have the information, maybe they don't.

I know Saddam was always "credited" with the hit on Abu Nidal. It gives one pause, though, that perhaps something else is afoot in Palestinian international politics....

Edit: I'd be interested in your opinion as to how they could've been more "professional"? :)

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Edit: I'd be interested in your opinion as to how they could've been more "professional"? :)

Check out some of the hits that the Israelis actually did... Car bombs, poisoned chocolate, or masked men bursting through the window and pumping hundreds of bullets into a guy while he's asleep. No wigs or pillows to be seen for miles.

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Hi Scotty Boy

The 4 man action team were probably former or serving special forces soldiers. Those are what most nations use for such work. Their training is not cheap but you will not find it in any nations budget. Such budgets probably got lost in the logistics and the toilet roll provision.

The Agents providing surveillance and technical support are even more expensive to train, they will have had similar training to the special forces guys plus masses more besides; as they have to be in the eye of foreign security services for years at a time. They would normally have had years of training; they are normally recruited from the best of the best of a nations universities, though in this case I think you may be right and they may be just amateurs brought in for this one off.

The Operational commander would usually be some one of considerable experience though how they got suckered into, or were so incompetent as to be, showing their knickers seems to belie that.

The more I look at it the more I am convinced it was amateur hour.

Maybe an element linked to a particular political mover off running his own operations?

Or some one fooled into being stupid by another political player looking to drop them in it. In which case I would be terrified to be one of the involved agents as they will almost certainly get burned or worse as part of the deal.

The possibility is high that they were suckered into showing their knickers by some one using the target as the worm on the hook.

The blinding fast reaction by Dubai with all the assassination team tracked almost inch by inch while the target is no where nearly as well tracked.

The fact the target a supposed top level asset, in a multi million dollar organisation with nation state support and supposedly training, who has escaped several previous attempts on his life; has on this occasion no counter surveillance or close protection team and does not employ any counter surveillance techniques what so ever. That is just way weird.

Kind regards walker

There's lots of probablys, normallys and usuallys in that analysis there :) Personally speaking, I've never seen an assassination so I cannot say what is normal or usual, but a pound to a pinch of shit says that just about all such activities have some amount of hiccups and sudden requirements for ad-hoc maneuvering :) I should say that it went about as smooth as such a thing could do, subsequent arrests notwithstanding.

It's easy to make armchair pronouncements of "professionalism" when you have been supplied with not only edited footage, but also commented edited footage. Only the very fact that this stuff is somehow made public can we make judgments on how it went vs how we could imagine it could have gone. The base fact may be no more complex than the hotel was simply the most advantageous place for the hit, nothing more. But, like everything else in this thread, that is pure conjecture conjured up out of my own mind.

I certainly won't comment on whether the assassins did a good job or not, seeing as I have nothing to compare it against. I do note however that the hit is dead from a silent method ;)

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Okay Walker, what government agency do you work for, you seem to have all the inside information?

Any Police force in the world could have done what Dubai have done. Dubai airport customs/passport control was the most stringent I've ever been through, they have a lot of detail. Added to the fact that Dubai are looking a bit crap after other profile murders they want to make it look like they aren't completely useless.

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Check out some of the hits that the Israelis actually did... Car bombs, poisoned chocolate, or masked men bursting through the window and pumping hundreds of bullets into a guy while he's asleep. No wigs or pillows to be seen for miles.

hehe

Yeah, that's part of the reason I don't think it was the Israelis. :D

But, they've gotten in trouble for the car bombs. Maybe this guy didn't like chocolates, and I think the masked men in that hotel would've been problematic - not to mention the gunfire. ;)

I'm also generally aware of Israeli operations that have been more nuanced. I'm more familiar with various Soviet/Russian efforts that make the Israelis' methods look like a fine ballet. :D

Whoever did it had inside information on the target's location and routine. Interestingly absent are any details about why the target left the relative safety of the hotel. The team clearly had reliable intel that allowed them to set the trap. That is not easy to obtain. Also, clearly, it wasn't totally an inside deal, because if it were, they wouldn't need the observation units.

Very tangled web, but one that almost certainly relies on gov't sponsorship.

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Okay Walker, what government agency do you work for, you seem to have all the inside information?

Any Police force in the world could have done what Dubai have done. Dubai airport customs/passport control was the most stringent I've ever been through, they have a lot of detail. Added to the fact that Dubai are looking a bit crap after other profile murders they want to make it look like they aren't completely useless.

I've played all 4 Hitman games, so that should qualify me to be an expert, right?

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I've played all 4 Hitman games, so that should qualify me to be an expert, right?

Oh, god, yes!

Why didn't they use the piano wire! :D

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Hi TRexian

As pointed out before:

Hi Scotty Boy

They did the deed in a hotel with CCTV watching their every move. He was out of the hotel and not on CCTV for hours.

If they wanted to be covert then a trip, a fall, a car accident. All could have done it with no CCTV link between agents and the target.

If they wanted to make a statement then a knife or gun or a bomb. Also could have been done with no CCTV link between the agents and the target.

But a taser and smothered with a pillow is neither "owt nor nowt."

Like I said they had been watching too much Hollywood. It honestly looks like they got the idea from an Alias plot or some such....

1) Obvious body tension in the members of 1st kill team especially one with bandage.

2) Second kill team rushing into the lift.

3) Clumsy far too close handovers by surveillance teams.

4) Hand over face and brimmed hats all over the shop, would be spotted even by a mall security cop, and that's before a software high lighter kicks in.

5) Buddy team methods clear as day.

6) Excited rushing around near the elevators including Gail even a triumph grin at one point.

7) The airport surveillance single doubling back in a rush at the airport and getting stuck behind a sign was comical, near Clouseau stupid.

8) Fake hotel staff distraction/security team, very risky that one. If the real hotel staff are on the CCTV surveillance that one gets a call to hotel security and the police.

9) Fake blond wig hair for the girl in the passport photo. Would not get past UK passport inspection, maybe they are easier going in Ireland.

10) Glasses and Grins on passport photos surprised that got past UK pass port control, so I am guessing fakes, the source and methods of which will now be checked over.

11) Same shoes in several ID shifts, heck people were supposed to have leaned not to do that from Le Carre.

12) Failed door security hack leaving an electronic audit trail and almost blowing the whole operation if the alarms had been triggered how they circumvented them will get analysed by the techs.

13) Visible secure comms equipment on CCTV though I know an ear mike cable can act as a clear comms antenna thus defeating the encryption so there is probably no way round that one, but it would not have taken much to dress them up as mobile phones.

14) Out of country control office which is SOP for most operations but now their comms signature is traceable and so cannot be used in the future. I dare say Dubai are busy selling that to everyone.

15) Gait analysis and other methods for full back tracking on any previous missions.

16) Almost the whole team recognisably photographed and filmed

A veritable counter espionage goldmine.

The one who is IDed as Kevin Daveron who seems to be the seen of operations cleaner at the end; last man out; one of only two people not part of a buddy team was the only professional in the whole team IMHO. Cool as a cucumber that one. No silly giveaway hat either, wigs, facial hair, glasses and changes of clothes only, a grey man. He was also the cover guy in the elevator area able to change his face demeanor and even body shape. Passport photo he is young fit looking building worker type. At the first hotel he is a greying balding middle aged business man at the start. Then a wig and he is younger business man, a black mustache, clipboard and glasses and he looks and acts like an even younger slighter Pakistani or Indian member of staff. I do not think the fat man at the elevator knows how close he came to being dead.

But as I said the planning of location was the key bad aspect.

Check it all over your selves you have eyes and a brain.

http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=dubaisesslon&annotation_id=annotation_425824#p/a/u/2/JghQ0ZcRfQs

Kind Regards walker

Edited by walker

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Oh, god, yes!

Why didn't they use the piano wire! :D

Should have used the knock-out syringe on bystanders...

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1) Obvious body tension in the members of 1st Kill team especially one with bandage.

You are gleaning real-time body language information from basically stop-action CCTV. More or less 10 frames per second, if that much? I think such an interpretation is suspect.

2) second team rushing into the lift.

You've never rushed to a lift? :D That was completely innocent, especially as there was no one around to notice.

3) Clumsy far too close handovers by surveillance teams.

Perhaps... although it was - obviously - not enough to raise any suspicions at the time.

4) Hand over face and brimmed hats all over the shop, would be spotted even by a mall security cop, and that's before a software high lighter kicks in.

Apparently not. ;) The brimmed hats... well... do you vacation much? Those are quite common, to the point of being required in many tropical destinations.

5) Buddy team methods clear as day.

Not entirely sure what you reference here. Keep in mind, in the edited vids, your attention is being directed where to look. In real time, one might suspect the people were acquainted, but that in itself is not enough to raise suspicions.

6) Excited rushing around near the elevators including Gail even a triumph grin at one point.

Also completely natural. I believe the scene you are referring to was when she was in a business suit? There was absolutely nothing out of the ordinary about that behavior.

7) The airport surveillance single doubling back in a rush at the airport and getting stuck behind a sign was comical, near Clouseau stupid.

Are you familiar with some of the techniques to make sure one isn't being followed? Indeed, it appears silly. It would also make it near impossible for a trailing agent to replicate the act without looking even sillier.

8) Fake hotel staff distraction/security team, very risky that one. If the real hotel staff are on the CCTV surveillance that one gets a call to hotel security and the police.

hehe I actually agree on that. It was risky. But, successful, too.

My grandmother used to say that the best way to get behind a door is to have a clipboard and walk up to someone and demand to be let in. Clipboards or other types of documents like that make someone very official, very authoritarian. Combine that with a sense of confidence, and you can get just about anywhere.

9)Fake blond wig hair for the girl in the passport photo. Would not get past UK passport inspection, maybe they are easier going in Ireland.

10) Glasses and Grins on passport photos surprised that got past UK pass port control, so I am guessing fakes, the source and methods of which will now be checked over.

On this part, I somewhat agree - but not that it is amateurish, just that it is a forgery. I tend to think it points to a greater scale of inside-operations. Go to a certain passport line during a certain shift and the attendant doesn't pay much attention.... that sort of thing.

11) Same shoes in several ID shifts, heck people were supposed to have leaned not to do that from Le Carre.

It worked.

12) Failed door security hack leaving an electronic audit trail and almost blowing the whole operation if the alarms had been triggered how they circumvented them will get analysed by the techs.

I wonder if that was actually the one that was interrupted by the hotel-staff gambit. Regardless, it worked. The kind of technology required is not simple, nor foolproof.

13) Visible secure comms equipment on CCTV though I know an ear mike cable can act as a clear comms antenna thus defeating the encryption so there is probably no way round that one, but it would not have taken much to dress them up as mobile phones.

Well, these days Bluetooth stuff is ubiquitous, so techno-gadgets and their accoutrements are unlikely to draw much attention.

14) Out of country control office which is SOP for most operations but now their comms signature is traceable and so cannot be used in the future. I dare say Dubai are busy selling that to everyone.

I'm not convinced Dubai has the "comms signature." Even if they did, it was likely a one-off encryption, or at least, it is now.

15) Gait analysis and other methods for full back tracking on any previous missions.

Indeed, which makes it surprising that Dubai has gone public with this. That sort of stuff is usually kept very close, for later use. They've basically guaranteed that these people won't be used for covert ops again.

16) Almost the whole team recognisably photographed and filmed

Nah, the disguises were good enough that you couldn't pick those people out of a lineup.

A veritable counter espionage goldmine.

Yes, which is actually corrupted now that they've put it on display.

But as I said the planning of location was the key bad aspect.

But that was also one of the things they had the least control over.

I suspect that, when the intel came across, they had a relatively short window of time to plan this mission.

Another note about professionalism, I've read accounts that the targets door was locked and chained from the inside! That's no small trick.

Also, regarding the hotel guest that was stopped - I'd be interested to know what his perception of the guy was. Any accent, what language, etc.?

Edited by TRexian

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I think it would have been better to kill one of the porters and use his clothes to infiltrate the hotel. Or, they could have waited in the elevator shaft and killed the target like that. That's what I would have done.

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I must say I agree with walker somewhat. Getting the job done and running away even if temporarily is fine and dandy for a Hollywood movie, but in my very expert-less opinion (before you jump on me :) ) in the real world there are always future operations and implications to consider. Obviously these agents and their methods are compromised and perhaps past operations can be traced as well. It is a big blunder unless of course that whoever thought of this operation did not mind this outcome as long as the target is dealt with quickly.

Time is an important factor that might explain this "amateurishness". After all nobody knew what the "target" was doing there all alone without proper precautions. It seems his arrival to the country was a surprise for whoever was observing him and so it was decided that this is an opportunity that should not be missed. It follows that there was very very little surveillance time, and the location of the hit was not ideal.

One thing I don't understand is that some of you are saying that the Dubai government should have been involved in protecting that guy by default. I don't think the authorities in the UAE could care less where hamas figures come and go. However they do care greatly about the safety and security of their country. If I am not mistaken I think there was an announcement made earlier on that if "the victim" would have approached authorities and identified himself before going to the country or at the airport they would have provided him with the necessary protection. They did that for the other side too I visit Dubai frequently and I remember a while back there was an Israeli delegation that was supposed to take part in some business conference of some sort, and they closed off whole sections of the city and some roads were accessible only through checkpoints.

I still think it is a good job by the Dubai police considering the circumstances I respect their efforts and I hope they catch them. On the other hand I always thought that the "locals" that work in the Dubai airport are one of the biggest douchebags that country have to offer and the fact that they let those silly passport photos pass by seems to improve my opinion.

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Hi TRexian

You are gleaning real-time body language information from basically stop-action CCTV. More or less 10 frames per second, if that much? I think such an interpretation is suspect.

But I was not the only one spot it. In the original post I was replying to some else who had also spotted it. They even train mall cops to spot this stuff same goes for an over abundance of hats. And the hand over face in front of a CCTV is a big no no, for some of us that stuff is like a flashing red light. Combining buddy teams with the above is also a big indicator.

The fact is that even without the red cicles draw around them their body language of them all, gave off the feeling "we are being naughty", with sole exception of the one IDed as Kevin Daveron, it takes a great deal of training and or experience not give off those vibes.

The surveillance double back, was the guy ducking back out of sight himself, but getting stuck behind the sign. There was no possibility of any one following him so close that they would get fooled by that move. I suppose you could make an argument for him looking for laughs as a way of spotting counter surveillance.

The secure comms problem can only be solved by disguise. Any wired mike or earphone acts as broadcast aerial of encrypted comms chatter in clear, doubly so for wireless transmitter like blue tooth.

Dubai will have the encrypted signals signature to Austria, all countries even India records all out going international telephone signals, in fact Dubai has already said so and has given the numbers, to and from control station.

To me that fact that the target employed zero counter surveillance and the fact Dubai were on the case so quickly far quicker than either the US or UK managed after the bombings is an indicator that this was a worm on a hook.

Kind Regards walker

Edited by walker

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I am open to the idea that this was basically a setup. But, if that's the case, then why make it public? That seems to cut against whatever the goal would be to accomplish it. I think Dubai is genuinely pissed off that it happened in their counry.

Nothing would surprise me, though. Well, almost nothing. :)

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Hi TRexian

Who was it that said Dubai that set them up?

My own thoughts Dubai was primed and fed.

Kind Regards walker

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"Appalling" tradecraft is when the foreign gov't knows you are there and has their own counter-ops guys watching you. ;)

Ahaha... :p

Yep... thats pretty appalling.

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Hi all

Melvyn Mildiner's passport traces to a dual nationality passport holder who lives near Jerusalem.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/16/dubai-murder-hamas-anger-accused

Now I think that would come under TRexian's definition of "Appalling" tradecraft.

I wonder how many other similar "mistakes" there will be?

I still hold my judgement though.

Kind regards walker

Edited by walker

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