Explosion in madrid

[brgnorway 0]

Quote[/b] ]You mean to say that I was unreasonable as a moderator?

.....says the fallen angel/moderator

Quote[/b] ]No but seriously, I wasn't trying to tell you what to discuss, I just said that the important event here and the thing we are discussing in this thread is the terrorist attack. The Iraq war is a relevant side event, but we're talking about the bombing primarily. You misunderstood me, I was not trying to dicate the scope of the topic but to give a motivation to why I'm more prone to debate the terrorist attack and its consequences than other stuff. The big event was the bombing.

Ok, I see! I guess the only thing we differ on are the variying importance of the context and the decisive factor that brought the change in government.

[denoir 0]

Your assumption inherent in your question is that the bombing scaired the electorate (that was your causal link). I see like others you support the spanish in their hour of need. I ask you can you square that support with an asertion that esentialy says; they ran away from their democratic principles in fear?

I don't know why I'm writing this for the tenth time or so, but please read what I said. I never said that they acted out of fear. On the contrary:

They reacted emotionally, yes, but not with fear - with anger against Anzar. For lying, for putting Spanish troops in Iraq against the will of the Spanish people and for utterly failing to protect them against terrorists..

On an absolute scale, it was the right thing to do. Unfortunately it was also what the terrorists wanted.

The causal link you are looking for is Bombing->Lying->Change of government

No bombing->no lying->no change of goverment.

There are of course additional factors such as the Iraq war etc, but as pre-election polls showed the sum of the other factors was not sufficient to induce a goverment change.

The irony and the not-so-good-thing is that the interest of the Spanish people coincides with AQ interests in the Iraq question. Hence by acting in a way they believe is right, they are unfortunately doing what AQ thinks is right as well. With such proximity to the bombing and triggered by the bombing, it gives a message of encouragement to the terrorists.

[Bernadotte 0]

The issue is if the terrorists were successful or not.

Everytime I think I'm on the verge of seeing some logical reason behind your approach, black boxes and all, you come out with a statement like this.  How the hell can you assess whether the terrorists were successful or not using an analytical method that disregards the reasons behind the attack?

You're mixing things up. There are ovreall several steps.

1. Why there was a terrorist attack.

2. What consequences did the terrorist attack have.

3. Were the consequences compatible with the aim of the terrorists?

What we have been debating with black boxes and logic and so on is number 2). Did the attack induce a government change in Spain?

No.  That's not what I've been debating.  Unlike Walker, I've never disagreed with you about the answer to 2.  I've been debating for stronger consideration of steps 1 and 3.  I gladly welcome that you've finally identified and even numbered them.

[walker 0]

Hi Denoir

The problem is with this chain of logic for your black box.

<table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tr><td>Code Sample </td></tr><tr><td id="CODE">Bombing->Lying->Change of administration

No bombing->no Lying->no change of administration.

It is that it is missing what the Causal link is. It is the human motivation not just the facts. You are after all dealing with human reation to the facts.

You clarified your answere by stating

Quote[/b] ]They reacted emotionally, yes, but not with fear - with anger against Anzar. For lying, for putting Spanish troops in Iraq against the will of the Spanish people and for utterly failing to protect them against terrorists..

I am Sorry I missed that part of your posts. My heart felt Apologies for accusing you of saying the Spanish electorate were cowards.

So according to you it should read

<table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tr><td>Code Sample </td></tr><tr><td id="CODE">Bombing->Lying about Iraq->Anger at spanish involvement in iraq causing bombing->Change of administration

No bombing->No Lying about Iraq ->No Anger at spanish involvement in iraq causing bombing->No change of administration.

So according to that and you made it clear. The spanish were not angry about the lying about ETA being being blaimed for the bombings they were angry at the government Lying about Iraq which made them a target.

This places your interpretation of spanish motivation as being one of three:

They new about the lies on Iraq but were only bothered when they were bombed, a bit mercinary perhaps.

OR

All of a suden like; despite such lying going on for months, they had an epithany when the bomb went off and realised they had been lied to.     Hmm.

OR

They were angry at a government not providing adequate protection from terrorists. This could be a reasonable motivation.

Except that is not what happened imediately after the bombing.

At that point and for the next 2 days support for the old spanish administration increased. As is born out by interviews with voters at the time and by the massive demonstrations against the bombings which supported the old spanish administration.

Hence

<table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tr><td>Code Sample </td></tr><tr><td id="CODE">Bombing->Lying about ETA not discovered->Anger at bombing->increased support for the old

spanish administration->BIG margin of victory for the old spanish administration

No bombing->no lying about ETA to be discovered->No Anger at bombing->No increased support for the old spanish administration->Narow margin of victory or maybe loss for the old spanish administration

Then with only a day to go before the election the lying was discovered and the chain became:.

<table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tr><td>Code Sample </td></tr><tr><td id="CODE">Bombing->Lying about ETA discovered->Anger at bombing being lied about->landslide for the New

spanish administration->change of administration

No bombing->no lying about ETA to be discovered->No Anger at bombing being lied about->No increased support for the old spanish administration->Narow margin of victory or maybe loss for the old spanish administration

Once again with respect for one of the best debaters on this forum, you denoir, kindest regards walker

[Bernadotte 0]

Walker, I agree with your interpretation that the lying could not have been discovered at a worse moment for the incumbent party, PP.

How many percentage points would you estimate it cost PP?  

And with much of the dust having settled, do you still believe that PP lost fewer votes on account of the lying than was needed for them to win the election?

[IsthatyouJohnWayne 0]

Denoir- " I always thought that a complete denial of facts and empty rethorics were hall marks of the conservative right wing. I've learned now that I was mistaken. The hard liberals/lefties are just as blind to facts that don't fit their ideology. It's  bad as their lack of reasonable reflection hurts all liberals. People with solid ideas get discarded as "Bush-haters" or whatever. "

Heheheh. Its strange how a persons opinion can change when they they start to get on the 'other' side of debates(no doubt for interesting psychological reasons).

I think Denoirs point is really quite simple (but he must complicate it with 'black boxes' etc).

The lieing by the PP is in relation to the bombing. Without the bombing there is no lieing on the bombing and thus no voter  backlash. The precise reasoning of the spanish electorate can be argued and debated endlessly but the singular reality of the bombing and the election result stand out distinctly from the immediate history.

The question of whether the bombing swung the election -is-important for its own sake, regardless of the endless web of previous cause and effect, the Iraq war, the state of the Arab world, Spanish foreign policy etc etc etc

because a few bombs just before an election bringing down an EU government in the midst of a 'war on terror' is exceptional in and of itself.

That the bombers aims appear to be close to being fulfilled (assuming they are who they now appear to be) only reinforces this.

The atmosphere in Spain before the bombing was one of  dislike and distrust of the government certainly, the Iraq war especially was very unpopular but despite that it is possible for a government to win an election (if the alternatives are not seen as more credible- as is the case in the UK now) and that appeared to, i would say, most observers , polls and even left wing commentators before the election to be just what was going to happen (a marginal PP victory with probable low voter turnout.) Noone can say absolutely what the result without the attacks would have been but even the distinct possibility of such a direct effect should be shocking enough.

As Holysmoke has said (and i said earlier), higher voter turnouts, as were seen after the bombing, traditionally favour the socialists. Also the apparent sneaky and lieing behaviour of the PP had a major impact on voters, but this was a direct response to the bombing.

So yes brg-norway, there was democracy at work. You can say 'More' democracy if we mean by this more voters, but these voters appear almost undeniably to have been thrown out of election apathy by an act of mass murder. The responsible killers polluted Spanish democracy with blood. I am surprised many people seem only marginally interested in this. I was not at all impressed by what i saw of the PP , but this is the worst way for them to go, simply the worst.  

[denoir 0]

Heheheh. Its strange how a persons opinion can change when they they start to get on the 'other' side of debates(no doubt for interesting psychological reasons).

I'd like to think that it is because I do not wish to politicize the terrorist attack. I have the feeling that many are glad because of Anzars removal due to their opposition to the Iraq war and that it clouds their objectivness.

Quote[/b] ]I think Denoirs point is really quite simple (but he must complicate it with 'black boxes' etc).

It was quite simple, but people disputed it and I went on to motivate it with more general models. Thus the complication.

[IsthatyouJohnWayne 0]

You must remember that for a political idealogue, all positions are political.

[Bernadotte 0]

Quote[/b] ]I think Denoirs point is really quite simple (but he must complicate it with 'black boxes' etc).

It was quite simple, but people disputed it and I went on to motivate it with more general models. Thus the complication.

Let's do a reality check, Denoir:

Bernadotte:

Quote[/b] ]What do you mean, no?  You say "no" but then you more or less reiterate what I said.  The only difference is that I'm not convinced that Iraq + an ETA attack would have been sufficient.  That's why I emphasised that Iraq + terrorists' reaction to Iraq = sufficient condition.

No, your original post hinted that you considered Iraq being both necessary and sufficient for Anzars lost election. I'm saying no. It was not only because the Iraq war. Without the terrorist attack Anzar would have won. Regardless where you put the originating cause, you can't deny that the terrorist attack influenced the results of the election (or decided, better to say). No terrorist attack - Anzar. Terrorist attack - no Anzar. Simple <span style='font-size:13pt;line-height:100%'>black-box</span> model. I don't look at other parameters of the equation, just one and I can say that the terrorist attack parameter was decisive (all other parameters kept unchanged).

As you can see, the black-box was introduced when you misinterpreted my original post.  I never disputed that the bombing changed the outcome of the election.

[SpongeBob 0]

Bomb Found on Rail Line in Spain

Quote[/b] ]5 minutes ago

MADRID, Spain - Police found a bomb Friday under the track of Spain's bullet train line between Madrid and Seville, the Spanish interior minister said. Bomb-disposal experts alerted by a railway employee found 22-24 pounds of explosive that might be dynamite about 40 miles south of Madrid, Interior Minister Angel Acebes said.

[bn880 5]

Heheheh. Its strange how a persons opinion can change when they they start to get on the 'other' side of debates(no doubt for interesting psychological reasons).

I'd like to think that it is because I do not wish to politicize the terrorist attack. I have the feeling that many are glad because of Anzars removal due to their opposition to the Iraq war and that it clouds their objectivness.

Quote[/b] ]I think Denoirs point is really quite simple (but he must complicate it with 'black boxes' etc).

It was quite simple, but people disputed it and I went on to motivate it with more general models. Thus the complication.

It clouds nothing, it is good he was removed as he was one of the fools who attacked Iraq without justification. No question about it for me.

[melkorjl 0]

At least one GEO (group of special operation of the spanish police) has died in an operation to capture islamist terrorist, in relation with the trains bombs. it is like the terrorist blow themselve to stop the police taking them.

[brgnorway 0]

Here's a link:

Explosion in Madrid this evening!

[Albert Schweitzer 10]

holy

Now it seems as these people are always well prepared. In the past I asked myself:

"why do they always send a brigade of top special forces to arrest alleged terorists? In germany they sometimes even arrived with tank-like police vehicules. Usually these terorists dont hide the explosives at home and would never pull a gun. Is it for the publicity, do they provide nice pictures so we feel safer?" Now I see there is a reason why to ordinary street cops are not sufficient!

[Acecombat 0]

Damn another one

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-04-03-spain-explosion_x.htm

Quote[/b] ]The blast in Leganes, a southern suburb of Madrid, blew away part of the walls of the building. Police had earlier evacuated residents and cordoned off part of the town.

Interior Minister Angel Acebes said a preliminary investigation indicated three terrorists had died, but he added the number had yet to be confirmed because of the damage to the bodies.

"The special police agents prepared to storm the building and when they started to execute the plan, the terrorists set off a powerful explosion, blowing themselves up," Acebes said.

"There are three that could have blown themselves up, but the possibility of more is not ruled out," he said.

He said police believe some of the suspects may have carried out the March 11 train bombings that killed 191 people and wounded more than 1,800.

The investigation has focused on the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group, which has links to al-Qaeda.

On Friday, police found a bomb under the tracks of a high-speed rail line 40 miles south of Madrid. Acebes said Saturday it was made of the same brand of explosive, Goma 2 Eco, that was used in the Madrid train attacks.

The bomb failed to detonate because it wasn't properly wired, officials said.

"It's the same type of explosive and it's the same brand," Acebes said of the 26-pound bomb. The bomb scare stopped six bullet trains using the Madrid-Seville line.

The fact that the same explosive may not help investigators. Goma 2, often used for demolition and in mining, is relatively easy to get in Spain.

Authorities on Friday stepped up security on Spain's entire rail network. On Saturday, soldiers, police and Civil Guard officers could be seen patrolling the targeted high-speed rail lines.

Because the bag containing the bomb was dry and the ground was wet, authorities believe it was placed at the scene Friday. A 450-foot-long cable was attached to the detonator.

The rail line where the bomb was found mainly serves Spain's AVE bullet trains, which have a top speed of 190 mph, although some slower trains also use it.

The government has said it is focusing on the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group, the forerunner of a group suspected of last year's Casablanca bombings, which killed 45 people including 12 suicide bombers.

The Spanish newspaper El Mundo reported Saturday that the Spanish Embassy in Egypt received a letter from an Islamic militant group threatening new attacks if Spain did not withdraw its troops from Iraq and Afghanistan.

In the letter, the Brigade of Abu Hafs al-Masri, a group that also claimed responsibility for the March 11 attacks, threatened to strike against Spanish diplomatic missions in North Africa and the Mediterranean region unless Spanish troops are withdrawn in four weeks.

A Spanish diplomat in Cairo, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the embassy received a threatening letter signed by Abu Hafs after the commuter train attacks last month.

The United States believes the Abu Hafs group lacks credibility and has only tenuous ties to al-Qaeda. In the past, the group has claimed responsibility for events to which they were not connected — such as last summer's blackouts in North America and Britain.

Retarded terrorist junkies so whats their motive this time ?

[miles teg 1]

What is so sickening to me is that Spain announced it was pulling out of Iraq which in essence gave the message, "We give in, you guys have forced us to cut our military ties with the US operations in Iraq." And now the response of these Moroccan Al-Qaeda wannabees is "Screw you, we're gonna twist that knife some more and make Spain suffer some more."

I can't think what else is going through the heads of these terrorists unless they are trying to carry out more attacks to avenge those who the Spanish authorities have arrested.

But even that doesn't make sense as kidnappings would be much more effective in that regard.

Those terrorists are real idiots who bring nothing but shame and disgrace upon Morocco and the religion of Islam.

Chris G.

aka-Miles Teg<GD>

[Acecombat 0]

Mind my ignorance but wtf do these retarded morocan AQ wannabes want from Spain ?

Or is it only morrocans because they wre the closest retards in the vicinity so they got the job contract from AQ command ?

But i agree with you there Miles this was a stupid attack simply senseless not that the first one made any sense or was justifiable at all but this time its unprovoked unless they got some other 'issues'

[Albert Schweitzer 10]

Quote[/b] ]What is so sickening to me is that Spain announced it was pulling out of Iraq which in essence gave the message, "We give in, you guys have forced us to cut our military ties with the US operations in Iraq."

YOu see, this is where the silly Bush interpretation of the spanish vote fails. The spanish DID declare war on teror. They didnt give in, they fight it where it is burning: IN SPAIN. And now tell me MR. BUSH, why are those terorists in SPain and not in IRAQ?

[SpongeBob 0]

Madrid policeman's body burned

Monday, April 19, 2004 Posted: 1439 GMT (2239 HKT)

Quote[/b] ]MADRID, Spain (CNN) -- The body of a Spanish police officer who was killed in a raid on suspected Islamic terrorists was removed from its tomb Sunday night, dragged across a cemetery, doused with gasoline and burned, a Spanish police official told CNN.

Police do not know who committed the crime, and an investigation is under way.

Francisco Javier Torronteras, a special operations police officer, died April 3 during a police raid in a Madrid suburb where police believed suspects behind the March 11 Madrid train bombings were hiding.

The suspected terrorists set off a bomb during the raid and seven of them died, of whom four have been identified.

Police said the suspected ringleaders of the train bombings were among those killed.

Torronteras was not buried underground, but in an above-ground tomb at Madrid's Southern Cemetery.

Assailants Sunday night used a long pole to pry the tomb open, dragged the body about 200 meters, covered it with gasoline and set it on fire.

The cemetery's night watchman spotted the fire and alerted authorities, a police official said.

Spain's new interior minister Jose Antonio Alonso, at a previously scheduled event Monday, did not discuss what had happened to Torronteras' body.

But he called the slain officer an example of the bravery exhibited by all the Spanish officers who have died in the line of duty.

But he said: "I want to express my heartfelt recognition for the police special operations officer who died in the line of duty in the well-known operation on Saturday the 3rd in Leganes.

"In a way, he is the symbol of so many police officers and civil guards who have died earlier in the line of duty."

CNN Madrid Bureau Chief Al Goodman contributed to this report.

[denoir 0]

[theavonlady 2]

Savages.

[denoir 0]

It must be the work of some (rather disturbed) kids. I mean the man had been dead for a while. Burning his body has even little in 'shocking' value. Macabre, sure, but mostly weird.

The only ones that get hurt by the grave desacration are the relatives. So it has no political value. So probably some kids trying to show off how militant they are.. Stupid really, just stupid.

[Gollum1 0]

F***

[ralphwiggum 6]

i absolutely see no point in treating dead body like that. it's a dead body, no more no less. those who did this at least tried to make something of it, but at least for me, this seems one of those things that are out of whack.

[Postduifje 0]

ouch, quite disturbed