The Iraq Thread 2

[Pukko 0]

31 Iraqis dead after being accidently shot during celebrations of the Hussein brothers death.... USA has forbidden 'celebrating shootings', but it has continued.

Article in swedish

[denoir 0]

Five Civilials killed by US troops in Baghdad (BBC):

Quote[/b] ]A raid in Baghdad by elite US troops searching for Saddam Hussein has reportedly left up to five Iraqi civilians dead.

An angry crowd gathered outside a house in the upmarket Mansur suburb of the capital after the raid involving Task Force 20 troops.

In a separate operation, US forces also raided farms in the Tikrit area early on Sunday in an unsuccessful bid to snatch the former Iraqi leader's security chief.

America's top soldier, General Richard Myers, who has visited Tikrit said that Saddam's capture was "just a matter of time".

The number of Iraqis supplying information on his possible whereabouts had risen greatly since the killing of his sons Uday and Qusay on Tuesday, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

Blood in the street

Troops from the Task Force 20 squad smashed doors and windows to enter the house in Mansur.

Theyh opened fire as a car pulled up in the street during the search and the occupants of at least one vehicle were hit.

A pool of blood lay in the road outside, and Baghdad's central hospital reported five deaths.

Local people accused the Americans of "hysteria", he BBC's Mike Donkin reports from the scene.

It is thought, our correspondent says, that the squad believed a relative of Saddam - perhaps his son Ali from his second wife - was hiding in the house.

But they left after a search, making no arrests.

The house owner, tribal chief Prince Sabir Rabiyah, was not there during the raid but later told reporters he had not seen Saddam since the end of the war.

"I found the house was searched in a very rough way," he told AP news agency.

"It seems the Americans came thinking Saddam Hussein was inside my house."

A crowd at the scene condemned what they called a terrible attack on innocent civilians, saying it would only turn more people against an occupying force.

Tikrit raids

Soldiers of the US 4th Infantry Division say they came within hours of catching Saddam's security chief and perhaps the ousted leader himself in pre-dawn raids earlier on Sunday on three farms near Saddam's home town, Tikrit.

General Myers visited his troops after five combat deaths in 24 hours  

They had acted after receiving a tip-off that the security chief was staying at one of the farmhouses, said the operation leader, Lieutenant Colonel Steve Russell.

"What we initially heard was information about a very close bodyguard to Saddam Hussein," the officer said.

"And he is one that has inherited some of the power after others have been captured or killed. So we acted quickly on the intelligence but it looks like we've probably missed him by about 24 hours."

In Tikrit on Thursday, 4th Infantry Division troops captured a group of men believed to include between five and 10 of Saddam's bodyguards.

General Myers said on Sunday that the mounting toll of casualties among America's 144,000 troops in Iraq was understandable.

"We understand that there will be casualties," he said.

"The soldiers understand exactly what this is all about."

Since President Bush declared an end to major combat operations on 1 May, at least 49 US soldiers have been killed by hostile fire in Iraq.

[bn880 5]

That's a very revealing story from the bodyguard. I thought Saddam was insane not to prepare for battle, but actually he tried.

Sounds like the guard isn't actually lying.

[theavonlady 2]

Who wants to be a millionaire?

[Albert Schweitzer 10]

Denoir.

IIRC you recently presented a little graph on the  death poll of amercian soldiers since the declared end of the war. Now if you take this graph and enter the latest figures then you see that your curve is growing exponentially! (kind off).

Now that looks like the highway to the Vietnam trauma! Correct me if I am wrong but it seems that the US forces are actually loosing ground and control, retreat to safe places and leave unsafe places unguarded. What solution could there be? More Iraqi police forces? But then this means not training a few hundred but a few thousands.

If you would be the general in chief, what would you do to introduce a turnaround.

(so the exponential "curve of death" turns into tractrix, if the mathematicians know what I mean )

[denoir 0]

Denoir.

IIRC you recently presented a little graph on the  death poll of amercian soldiers since the declared end of the war. Now if you take this graph and enter the latest figures then you see that your curve is growing exponentially! (kind off).

Yes, these were the old graphs, and in the second one I made an exponential function fit as a model for prediction.

Quote[/b] ]

According to that model within 6 month US casualties would be well over 1,000 dead. Given the recent developments it looks as the model was overly optimistic and that if the current trend continues that we'll reach the 1,000 mark much sooner than six months.

Current casualties:

Now, one might argue that an exponential model is overly pessimistic. If we instead fit a quadratic model to the data, which gives the best possible outcome model (lowest possible casualties if the trend holds).

This model gives about 500 casualties within 6 months.

[USSoldier11B 0]

That is not nearly enough data to represent exponential growth, I'm sure it's far closer to a linear scatter plot in reality.

I heard a report on that story about missing Saddam by 24 hours and they said that the search convoy probably passed his car on the road. I don't know how accurate that is, blame the news radio station.

[Bernadotte 0]

Five Civilials killed by US troops in Baghdad (BBC):

Quote[/b] ][...earlier version...]

Denoir, the story has developed further since you quoted it.  

Some additionaly details:

Quote[/b] ]I went to the scene in the wealthy Mansur district after the task force had left, saying nothing except that they were fired on first.

Local people told a different story.  One witness told me: "My neighbours were getting out of their car when they started shooting," he said.   "A woman was hit and a man got out of the car to say they were doing nothing wrong.  So the soldiers fired at him, and at his brother in the car."

In Mansur people gathered around me. One man in the crowd expressed his outrage. He said the Americans always shot first and then they asked the questions.  "There was no need for these shootings" another said.  "Maybe the Americans thought Saddam Hussein was there, but they just got hysterical. They shot innocent civilians in front of our eyes."

Another man told me he was no friend of Saddam Hussein's and he had not liked the former regime.  "But I cannot accept the way the Americans treat us," he said.  "When I see things like this I can understand why people want to drive them out of our country. If this happens more and more then I will also join this resistance."

...birth of a terrorist?  

[denoir 0]

That is not nearly enough data to represent exponential growth, I'm sure it's far closer to a linear scatter plot in reality.

It's certainly not linear (linear would be a straight line). If it was linear then equally many troops would have been killed/day in may and now. There's 90 data points which is more than enough to make a correct model for this period (which does not mean that this trend will continue in the future).

Here, you can compare it for yourself: A linear model and an exponential model fitted to the KIA data:

Had the linear model been correct then there would have been less than 20 casualties so far.

[Albert Schweitzer 10]

Does anyone still believe Iran is next? I doubt that the US still has the financial capabilities to support another battlefield. It is another proof that even the strongest economies of our times are not capable to conquer and occupy small-to-medium-size countries. The limitating factors are lack of financial resources and moral support on the home front.

We seem to be reaching another turnaround of military orientation. I bet in the future military science will have to invest more time into developing the "after-war" logistics. Means that enable better supervision of occupied territory. That an old T-72 is no match to a Stealth bomber we know since quite a few years now.

But that a boy with a kalaschnikov can be just as lethal as a a Delta force soldier ...well that we know since ocupation scenarios such as the Middle East conflict and the AFTER-PARTY now in Iraq!

[denoir 0]

No, I don't think any invasion of Iran would be current. The Iraq war did not quite get the conclusion that those that started it wanted. I don't think there is any way in hell Bush or Blair would now get political support for another war.

[USSoldier11B 0]

Nor do we have the resources or manpower. They would have to reinstitute the draft and Canada's population would double in a week from an overwhelming influx of trust fund college hippies. Heaven forbid they ever deploy the Arkansas National Guard 39th Infantry Brigade, which is last on the list of infantry units to ever be deployed. I knew there was something wrong with those guys when three of them in my infantry school platoon received letters from the same girl. (not kidding)

[FSPilot 0]

I wouldn't be surprised if we already had special ops in Iran, but I doubt we'll be putting a major force there.

[Pukko 0]

Being an old Blues Brothers fan (got some cd's of them too  ) I could'nt resist making a silly signature, regading the current media hunt.

On the other hand, if the figure of 31 Iraqis killed by accident during celebrations of the Hussein brothers death as I posted on last page is correct - that must mean that there was 1000 000 Iraqis shooting in the air celebrating?? I mean what is the statisitcal chance of geting killed by a rifle shot up in the air?

anyone found another article?

EDIT:

making a search on google for the Bagdad paper al-Moatamar gave only result about the 31 killed in European news souces. Seems like that's the only international scope of that paper.

[Balschoiw 0]

Quote[/b] ]I wouldn't be surprised if we already had special ops in Iran

I don´t think so. Even the silliest person knows that foreign soldiers on your territory means that war is opened. SpecOps in Iran would be the silliest thing TBA could do atm. This would open war with Iran and this time it would be an attack war without any UN backing, not even theoretically. Maybe you should think before you post.

[Albert Schweitzer 10]

Quote[/b] ]I wouldn't be surprised if we already had special ops in Iran

I don´t think so. Even the silliest person knows that foreign soldiers on your territory means that war is opened. SpecOps in Iran would be the silliest thing TBA could do atm. This would open war with Iran and this time it would be an attack war without any UN backing, not even theoretically. Maybe you should think before you post.

Fully agree. Politically to risky. The US tries to win back the support from the UN, aiming for further forces to be stationed in Iraq to relieve US forces.

[FSPilot 0]

Quote[/b] ]I wouldn't be surprised if we already had special ops in Iran

I don´t think so. Even the silliest person knows that foreign soldiers on your territory means that war is opened. SpecOps in Iran would be the silliest thing TBA could do atm. This would open war with Iran and this time it would be an attack war without any UN backing, not even theoretically. Maybe you should think before you post.

Why not? We did it in Cambodia. And if they can't find a terrorist training camp in their backyard what makes you think they'd find an elite unit of special ops.

[USSoldier11B 0]

Well, I dunno about having military adivsors there...they would kinda stand out...CIA operatives for sure though. If we do have operators there it is spookiness way above my pay-grade.

[FSPilot 0]

I was thinking more along the lines of a recon group or something. I was just speculating anyway.

[Harnu 0]

Quote[/b] ]I wouldn't be surprised if we already had special ops in Iran

I don´t think so. Even the silliest person knows that foreign soldiers on your territory means that war is opened. SpecOps in Iran would be the silliest thing TBA could do atm. This would open war with Iran and this time it would be an attack war without any UN backing, not even theoretically. Maybe you should think before you post.

Why not?  We did it in Cambodia.  And if they can't find a terrorist training camp in their backyard what makes you think they'd find an elite unit of special ops.

And Laos... And Probably China

[ralphwiggum 6]

There's 90 data points which is more than enough to make a correct model for this period (which does not mean that this trend will continue in the future).

lol...and you just made prediction for next 6 months

c'mon denoir, you know and I know that we both hate statistics

[denoir 0]

There's 90 data points which is more than enough to make a correct model for this period (which does not mean that this trend will continue in the future).

lol...and you just made prediction for next 6 months

That's why I specifically on all occasions said "if this trend continues". It's a tautology, but it's entirely correct.

[ralphwiggum 6]

There's 90 data points which is more than enough to make a correct model for this period (which does not mean that this trend will continue in the future).

lol...and you just made prediction for next 6 months

That's why I specifically on all occasions said "if this trend continues". It's a tautology, but it's entirely correct.

but you said, "which does not mean that this trend will continue in the future."

so you are uncertain about whether trend will continue or not, and only thing you are sure of is that your model is trying to predict future given present(or past).

thus your model works for current, but for future it's uncertain and you cannot make conclusion for next 6 months for sure.

[denoir 0]

Again, I said, "if this trend continues". If it does it by definition implies that the model that predicts the trend is correct.

All I said was, if it continues in the same way as it has until now (i.e how it has progressed the last three months) then within six months there will be xxx number of casualties.

The whole point being that things better be improving soon or there will be significant casualties in the future.

[ralphwiggum 6]

don't we love statistics?

anyways,

Uday's personal stuffs

Quote[/b] ]WASHINGTON (CNN) -- U.S. troops sifting through the wreckage of the house in Mosul where Saddam Hussein's two sons were killed found Uday Hussein's briefcase, which contained $400,000 in U.S. currency and 30 million Iraqi dinars, or about $21,400.