Ukraine General

[gammadust 12]

Let's check what the OSCE neutral mission reported about it:

Spot report by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), 3 June 2015: Fighting around Marinka

Summarizing, the Pro-Russians lead a big attack once more, breaking all the agreements signed.

Yes... let's check what OSCE reported about it in the same area the day prior:

as of 19:30 (Kyiv time), 2 June 2015

On 2 June, while at the JCCC observation point at the Donetsk central railway station (“DPRâ€-controlled, 8km north-west of Donetsk city centre) the SMM heard a total of 126 explosions. Between 12:19 and 13:01hrs, the SMM heard 64 distant explosions, barely audible, from the south-south-west. Between 13:26 and 17:15hrs the SMM heard a total of 62 explosions and 20 bursts of small arms fire.

(...)

Based on information received from the “DPRâ€, the SMM monitored three sites in Donetsk city’s Kirovskyi district (“DPRâ€-controlled, 6.2km south-west of Donetsk city centre) where it observed fresh impacts on each site. On the first site the SMM observed an impact on the north side of the building on its second floor. On the second site, the SMM, based on an impact analysis, its angle and diameter, estimated that an artillery round of a calibre of at least 122mm incoming from the north-north-west, had penetrated the asphalt but did not detonate. On the third site, the SMM observed a crater which, based on its angle, it estimated to be from an unspecified artillery piece incoming from the same north-north-west direction. Local residents said to the SMM that on 1 June they heard approximately ten mostly incoming explosions between 19:00 and 19:30hrs.

my emphasis

Aparently there is a longer story begining earlier in the 2nd of June.

The OSCE report of the previous day (1 June) has no information for the area, to corroborate what local residents said.

The point being that you are presenting the Spot report regarding only a part of a cease fire violation. The available information allows one to infer that the "Pro-Russians" were responding to an attack by the Ukrainian forces of heavy artillery on a civilian inhabited area.

You are suggesting without stating it that the only violations are from the "Pro-Russian" side which is obviously not true. Of course the OSCE Spot report does not help you in any way avoiding that (since it limits the span of the event to the late hours of June 2nd).

Edited June 4, 2015 by gammadust

[Tonci87 163]

They have been shelling each other sporadically the whole time, the difference is that now the DPR has launched a large attack into Ukrainian territory. You can´t break the agreement any harder.

[mistyronin 1181]

The point being that you are presenting the Spot report regarding only a part of a cease fire violation. The available information allows one to infer that the "Pro-Russians" were responding to an attack by the Ukrainian forces of heavy artillery on a civilian inhabited area.

You are suggesting without stating it that the only violations are from the "Pro-Russian" side which is obviously not true.

I don't suggest anything. Don't be ridiculous and inform yourself better, here in this thread you'll find hundreds of sources to do so.

For instance I posted reports from OSCE informing about shell exchange these last months, it's nothing new (feel free to read the OSCE reports from the last few months and everyday they inform of shelling on both sides, up to hundreds of shots a day). They didn't even stopped during the meetings of Minsk 2.

What's new is that one of the sides moves a lot of heavy equipment and uses it in an offensive.

- - -

Meanwhile, Poroshenko warned of a full fledged Russian invasion... for eighth million time.

(BBC) Ukraine's Poroshenko warns of 'full-scale' Russia invasion

The outbreak of violence, in the government-held towns of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka, was the worst since a ceasefire was signed in Minsk in February.

Edited June 4, 2015 by MistyRonin
Adding BBC piece of news.

[aleksadragutin 9]

Has the attack on Ukrainian positions been confirmed, or is it just artillery fire? The OSCE does not mention an assault, just some movement inside DPR.

[beastcat 14]

http://youtu.be/zlLaX_P7YKg

That right there is the sound of peace. Edited June 4, 2015 by beastcat

[St. Jimmy 272]

Clashes started at Maryinka at night 02/06-early morning 03/06/15 with artillery barrage, around 5:00 DPR troops attacked Maryinka ( town UAF artillery has been striking Donetsk in last several days from ), they managed to enter town relatively easy, taking platoon defense area, UAF sqauds retreated, regrouped and counter-attacked, both sides suffered heavy losses, about 1-2 thousands of troopers fought from each side + tank and artillery support, by now DPR troops were pushed back and control only some of the town streets, maybe even pushed back to their initial positions by now)

Some version what's been going on last couple days.

Pretty big fighting.

[beastcat 14]

Mariupol: the "cease-fire" is in full swing 03.06.2015

http://youtu.be/fTNkNQiAjp0

Looks like the cease-fire is not only limited to Maryinka

But hey, some new russian humanitarian aid is already there to ensure maximum peace.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGo8SvqVAAAxKmE.png (462 kB)

Edited June 4, 2015 by beastcat

[gammadust 12]

I don't suggest anything.

I'm relieved then, that you were not suggesting that "the Pro-Russians lead a big attack once more", and that the omission of the other sides' actions were merely tacit.

Don't be ridiculous and inform yourself better, here in this thread you'll find hundreds of sources to do so.

I just resorted to exacly the same source as you did? i was also widening the information they provided of the same incident? supposedly i was precisely informing myself better?

Unfortunately what we found out was something that your phrasing did not fully reflect. You originaly forgot to mention the civilian areas attacked on the previous day, as reported by OSCE, and insist on being oblivious to it.

For instance I posted reports from OSCE informing about shell exchange these last months, it's nothing new (feel free to read the OSCE reports from the last few months and everyday they inform of shelling on both sides, up to hundreds of shots a day). They didn't even stopped during the meetings of Minsk 2.

Now you are just loosing the focus of the issue. I won't get into that, just letting you know that i've read plenty of OSCE reports.

What's new is that one of the sides moves a lot of heavy equipment and uses it in an offensive.

Both sides are being reported by OSCE as having heavy equipment missing from designated areas of control (according to minsk). In regards to using it in an offensive, the reports you are able to read show that the civillian inhabited areas shelled are those on the side of the DPR/LPR. Take the Kirovskyi district and Gorlovka last week (26 May).

The SMM saw the aftermath of shelling in “DPRâ€-controlled Horlivka (39km north-north-east of Donetsk). Residents, including one injured by the shelling, told the SMM that shells struck at 18:00hrs on 26 May. The SMM saw nine crater impacts (all within a radius of 200 metres) at three locations in residential areas and conducted crater analysis at one location. At this location, the SMM saw the body of a deceased woman close to two crater impacts. The SMM estimated that the craters were caused by incoming artillery from the north-north-west. In both craters the SMM found shrapnel consistent with 122mm artillery. The SMM saw a house in Planernaya Street that had sustained a direct hit that destroyed the eastern facade, and found shrapnel consistent with 122mm artillery. At this location the SMM saw traces of blood. According to the “DPR†“emergency services†and local residents, a 38 year old man and his 11 year old daughter were killed instantly in this strike and his wife and two young children had been hospitalized with injuries. At City Central Hospital No.2 the SMM spoke with the wounded mother. She and her children had suffered shrapnel wounds. Later, the SMM saw three bodies at the mortuary (one a middle aged man, one woman and a child). The SMM assessed that all three were victims of the shelling.

my emphasis

Ukrainian Army, they are the ones bombing civilians while the "west" stays mute, pretending to ignore it.

Meanwhile, Poroshenko warned of a full fledged Russian invasion... for eighth million time.

(BBC) Ukraine's Poroshenko warns of 'full-scale' Russia invasion

"Peter and the wolf", crying wolf that many times is very suiting to his name. If the above ever happens we shall see what will he be saying then. Either he does not control his own army and private militias or he does, either way, given OSCE evidence, he is already is guilty of war crimes in the Donbass.

Edited June 4, 2015 by gammadust
emphasis

[Tonci87 163]

Well the Ukrainian Army didn´t try to advance into Rebel controlled territory. I say again, there has been sporadic shelling from both sides but this renewed fighting has been started by the DPR forces because they are the ones who tried to win ground in Maryinka and Shirokyne.

There will be a summer offensive by the DPR and the recent fighting may be just a probe to see how well the UA army is prepared and how the world will react.

[mistyronin 1181]

Gammadust seriously, I don't know how to write it more clear so you can understand.

The continuous shelling of civilian areas, has been happening for months! On both sides. Even during the Minsk 2 meetings. It's not news.

The only news, it's that the Pro-Russian side has launched the biggest attack in the conflict since the ceasefire, basically going against all what was agreed in Minsk and Minsk 2.

It may be against your thesis, your believes, but it's a fact. It's simple. It can be checked in media from all possible sides. Trying to argue against that, is like trying to argue against our intelligence.

[gammadust 12]

Well the Ukrainian Army didn´t try to advance into Rebel controlled territory. I say again, there has been sporadic shelling from both sides but this renewed fighting has been started by the DPR forces because they are the ones who tried to win ground in Maryinka and Shirokyne.

There will be a summer offensive by the DPR and the recent fighting may be just a probe to see how well the UA army is prepared and how the world will react.

I hate to repeat myself but what happened in what is being designated by Marynka, by OSCE account, is contiguous in time and location with the Petrovs'kyi/Kirovs'kyi district (Donetsk), check map:

started on June 1st don't just look at the Spot Report.

Gammadust seriously, I don't know how to write it more clear so you can understand.

I am not expanding any thesis, i am only adding and pointing out that OSCE reports reveal more facts that those you are willing to consider, in effect allowing you to defend that this is just a big offensive by DPR/LPR forces. Of course a cannot expect you to even consider my thesis if you ignore the other facts pertaining to the same event.

Indeed, my thesis is: the DPR/LPR side are reacting en force to attacks were civillians were killed.

Edited June 4, 2015 by gammadust

[mistyronin 1181]

I hate to repeat myself but what happened in what is being designated by Marynka, by OSCE account, is contiguous in time and location with the Petrovs'kyi/Kirovs'kyi district (Donetsk), check map:

started on June 1st don't just look at the Spot Report.

What are you trying to sell us?

Everyone can check the OSCE reports that show worse shellings on both sides these last months along all the front areas, that didn't escalate into anything.

According to your "logic", both sides had a huge amount of opportunities to launch attacks. But that didn't happen. Only this time, and by the Pro-Russian side.

Meaning: the Pro-Russians wanted to start a big assault in that exact position for whatever reason. Which BTW was against all what was agreed. It's simple.

Indeed, my thesis is: the DPR/LPR side are reacting en force to attacks were civillians were killed.

Thesis that is easy to defeat by just checking any of the numerous reports of shellings on both sides where even more civilians were killed. And nothing happened. So your thesis is wrong, and you have all the OSCE reports of casualties as proof.

As I said, the pro-Russians wanted to start an offensive in that specific point, and they wanted so badly that they went against all what was agreed. Why would they did that? Probably because of the strategic location, and because they have had Mariupol as a goal for a long time.

Edited June 4, 2015 by MistyRonin

[gammadust 12]

What are you trying to sell us?

I dispense the qualifier, not selling anything, facts are provided free by OSCE, the thesis is shared by many i'm just advancing one here, which i gather is more fact complete than yours that limits the time span of the event begining in the late hours of June the 2nd.

Everyone can check the OSCE reports that show worse shellings on both sides these last months along all the front areas, that didn't escalate into anything.

According to your "logic", both sides had a huge amount of opportunities to launch attacks. But that didn't happen. Only this time, and by the Pro-Russian side.

Meaning: the Pro-Russians wanted to start a big assault in that exact position for whatever reason. Which BTW was against all what was agreed. It's simple.

That is your logic not mine. I did not say anything of the sort.

Thesis that is easy to defeat by just checking any of the numerous reports of shellings on both sides where even more civilians were killed. And nothing happened. So your thesis is wrong, and you have all the OSCE reports of casualties as proof.

Here I do give in, since I may have not found what you are alleging, civilians killed in areas controlled by the government shelled by DPR/LPR forces: maybe i did not go back in time sufficiently, maybe i was not able to cross check the event locations enough. But please do tell me, point me the last OSCE report you found where the above happened.

[beastcat 14]

Why are you arguing about some OSCE reports? Fact is there have been clashes before, during the whole cease-fire, but now the separatists have started a large scale offensive after getting a huge shipment of "aid" from russia.

Hell, they aren't even bothering with hiding it anymore.

[Tonci87 163]

You guys have no idea how much this resembles the Hitlerjugend (NSDAP youth organisation). It makes me really sad.
These kids are beeing filled with "patriotism" (wich in fact is only nationalism coupled with a leadership cult and fanaticism) and military training so that in a few years (or even earlier if things go bad for the DPR) they can continue the fight. Those old farts who have fought for the Soviets in multiple wars (interesting to note that there is one guy who admits to beeing a Veteran of the Yugoslavian war (back then Russia denied that there are Russian Soldiers there...)) should know better than to turn kids into soldiers.

[aleksadragutin 9]

Turning kids into soldiers is not confined to DPR, it is also present in Ukraine.

And there were Russians who came to fight in ex Yu, but Russia wasn't in anyway involved. How could it be when we're sorounded by pro west countries on all sides.

---------- Post added at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:55 ----------

Why are you arguing about some OSCE reports? Fact is there have been clashes before, during the whole cease-fire, but now the separatists have started a large scale offensive after getting a huge shipment of "aid" from russia.

Hell, they aren't even bothering with hiding it anymore.

http://puu.sh/iccKW/4447b69ea8.jpg

http://puu.sh/iccO9/449d5e3695.jpg

http://puu.sh/iccXW/f1ce6cb8ba.jpg

Just what are those photos supose to represent?

[Tonci87 163]

Turning kids into soldiers is not confined to DPR, it is also present in Ukraine.

And there were Russians who came to fight in ex Yu, but Russia wasn't in anyway involved. How could it be when we're sorounded by pro west countries on all sides.

---------- Post added at 20:56 ---------- Previous post was at 20:55 ----------

Just what are those photos supose to represent?

Don´t you know how ammo boxes look like?

[oxmox 73]

Associated Press: Poroshenko warns of possibility of rebel offensive

Ukraine's president on June 4 warned of a possible large-scale offensive by separatist forces in the east, one day after a major battle erupted on the western edge of the main separatist rebel stronghold.

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/associated-press-poroshenko-warns-of-possibility-of-rebel-offensive-390274.html

[sudayev 27]

Parliament allows foreign troops to Ukraine for peacekeeping operations except for troops of aggressor country

Thursday, June 4. KYIV — Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (Ukrainian Parliament) approved the Act On amendments to the Procedure of admission of units of the armed forces of other states to the territory of Ukraine.

This document amends the Act of Ukraine Procedure of admission of units of of the armed forces of other states to the territory of Ukraine by series of provisions aimed at increasing the list of legal reasons for stay of foreign troops in Ukraine. Particularly, one of these reasons is peacekeeping and security operation for Ukraine on the basis of the UN and/or EU resolution.

According to the act, the armed forces of states conducting aggressive actions against Ukraine will not be admitted to Ukraine.

http://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2015/06/04/parliament-allows-foreign-troops-to-ukraine-for-peacekeeping-operations-except-for-troops-of-aggressor-country/

[beastcat 14]

I found some cool new gameplay footage of the Orshanets map.

[gammadust 12]

In short:

4days afetr the plane was shot down the Russian MoD published satellite images supposedly showing Ukrainian AA activity in the area. However, the Bellingcat analysis has uncovered that the pictures had falsified time and datestamps and were altered with Photoshop CS5

[spiegel Online] 'Bellingcat Report Doesn't Prove Anything': Expert Criticizes Allegations of Russian MH17 Manipulation

The research group Bellingcat has accused Russia of manipulating satellite images from the MH17 disaster. But German image forensics expert Jens Kriese has criticized the analysis. He says it is impossible to say with any certainty whether Moscow is lying.

(...)

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Bellingcat says its findings are based on the use of the analysis tool FotoForensic.com, a website.

Kriese: And its founder Neal Krawetz also distanced himself from Bellingcat's conclusions on Twitter. He described it as a good example of "how to not do image analysis." What Bellingcat is doing is nothing more than reading tea leaves. Error Level Analysis is a method used by hobbyists.

my emphasis

More inconsistencies can be found in bellingcat's supposed "investigation" than those refered in the interview, some of which are so blatant that should agonise anyone that had taken minimum care when reading it. The damage it contributes to the public understanding of the event is sobering.

Why are you arguing about some OSCE reports? Fact is there have been clashes before, during the whole cease-fire, but now the separatists have started a large scale offensive after getting a huge shipment of "aid" from russia.

Maybe because those reports, as fallible as they may still be, are the closest that we can get of a verified review of events on the ground? As opposed to information collected exclusively from either side of the conflict and carrying for that very reason much less weight.

If we are here arguing that a "separatist large scale ofensive" is so, given the OSCE evidence of DPR/LPR heavy weaponry being reported as moved, better keep in mind that UAF have also been reported by OSCE (1 June) under the same circumstances.

The SMM revisited six “DPRâ€-controlled heavy weapons holding areas observing that their locations comply with the respective Minsk withdrawal lines. At four of the holding areas the weapons previously recorded were in situ. At one “DPR†site the SMM found only two 100mm anti-tank guns. Six self-propelled howitzers (122m Gvozdika) previously recorded were still missing as of 29 May when SMM first noted it. At another site, the SMM noted that one towed howitzer (152mm MSTA) previously recorded was missing.

The SMM revisited three Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapon holding areas and noted that all locations comply with the respective Minsk withdrawal lines. Only at one site weapons previously recorded were in situ. At the two other sites, the SMM observed that some of the heavy weapons previously recorded and accounted for were missing, namely two multiple launcher rocket system (MLRS) (122mm BM-21 “GRADâ€) at one site, and five MLRS (122mm BM-21 “GRADâ€) at the second site.

In which case i ask what other evidence is there to accuse one side and not the other of a "large scale offensive"?

Edited June 5, 2015 by gammadust

[ProfTournesol 956]

(BBC) Ukraine's Poroshenko says rebels ousted from Maryinka

[Tonci87 163]

In which case i ask what other evidence is there to accuse one side and not the other of a "large scale offensive"?

Common sense? Did the fighting occur on Ukrainian or rebel territory? Answer that question.

[sudayev 27]

Sorry, does anyone noticed THIS?

Parliament allows foreign troops to Ukraine for peacekeeping operations except for troops of aggressor country

[mistyronin 1181]

In which case i ask what other evidence is there to accuse one side and not the other of a "large scale offensive"?

Just read the d... OSCE reports of the last month! And you'll notice how the only side that started a large scale offensive was the Pro-Russian.

It's nice because the OSCE reports even count the amount of artillery shells that fell into civilian areas, specifying even the nature and sometimes even its caliber. They also indicate from where they were shot aprox and the amount of victims (they even quote local sources).

Parliament allows foreign troops to Ukraine for peacekeeping operations except for troops of aggressor country

They just have to convince another country to deploy peacekeeping troops, quite unlikely without a UN resolution of the UNSC (where Russia would obviously vote against).

Ukraine is not a NATO member, so it's unlikely that the US or other NATO members want to deploy their troops.

Edited June 5, 2015 by MistyRonin