The Iraq Thread 2

[Tex -USMC- 0]

I dont know who the american's are trying to fool this is a LOST battle once again they have humbled themselves by a bunch of guerillas , this war certainly isnt winnable for them at any xtent now , the best thing for them is to leave as is ASAP.

And what, pray tell, do you base that analysis on?

[RedLion 0]

"I dont know who the american's are trying to fool this is a LOST battle once again they have humbled themselves by a bunch of guerillas , this war certainly isnt winnable for them at any xtent now , the best thing for them is to leave as is ASAP."

***Well I certainly don’t know who you are trying to fool. We have known all along that this job was going to be tough to say the least. Our officials have explained time and again the lethality and dangers our men and women face in Iraq.

We knew this going in and we will continue to think about it when VICTORY is our.

We are making a difference no matter what. And at the end, we ought to be very proud that we have done more for these people than any of you and Saddam put together.

Regards,

RedLion

[denoir 0]

I dont know who the american's are trying to fool this is a LOST battle once again they have humbled themselves by a bunch of guerillas , this war certainly isnt winnable for them at any xtent now , the best thing for them is to leave as is ASAP.

It's way too early to tell. Right now it looks bad but that could change quite quickly. If they get the Iraqis into the game early and get them to join the "right" side then the guerillas will be crushed. If they do the right things now the war is very much winnable. And if anything Americans have always been good at adapting to changing circumstances.

Regardless, it would be a disaster to leave Iraq now. You would have the same thing that happened in Afghanistan in the 80's after the Soviets withdrew. And an unstable Iraq would be very destabilizing for the entire region and probably for the world as well.

No, USA should stay and get the job done. It won't be easy, but that's the consequences you have to take when you choose to start a war of aggression.

My advice to mr Bush would be to seriously reconsider his position towards the demands of the UN and Europe - both have the resources and experience that America lacks to quickly solve the Iraq problem. The Bush administration insulted most of the world through quite a lot of his actions. Europe is still America's good friend, but we have been insulted and treated badly. Bush has to realize that what he did and how he did it was wrong. He has to realize that's no way to treat friends. In short he has some serious ass-kissing to do.

Political power has to be transferred to the Iraqis so that they don't feel occupied. For the same reason the military has to be put under UN command. As long as it is a US military occupation of Iraq, nobody that was against the war will want to help. And as long as securty is a joke there is no chance of the rebuilding efforts ever succeeding.

[Acecombat 0]

Sorry i wont reply each of you individually according to the comments you posted .... but havent you heard of a country's right to sovereginty (sp). I mean ok Saddam was bad blah blah blah ( and he was somehow danger to your illustrious country half way across the globe ) , ok now hes gone so how about packing things up and leaving now. Its clear the message from the Iraqi people is to leave , if they stay even more violence will erupt the Iraqis see the americans as an invading force take my WORD on this i know Iraqis living here , they are all of the same opinion (even though its a bit un-educated now though) but they all see the americans as the bad guy , and i can tell you they are a hardened race they will keep on fighting and fighting and fighting everyday w will kep on hearing about casualties and bombs ... more destabilization everyday we see reports on websites , newspapers of someother so called 'atrocity' by the US which will invoke mor hatred on the US by most Arabs what i am saying is leave Iraq as is they arent Afghanistan , they have the oil mony to re-build themselves , they might evn be helped Arab countries if you leave them.

Even though i feel the same that america shoud stay and sweat it out but its more of a death trap for them and all it will do is put more rust on their tarnishing reputation.

I say leave them if they want their country as is just give it to em after all its their's not ours.Let'em do what they want.

Quote[/b] ]We are making a difference no matter what. And at the end, we ought to be very proud that we have done more for these people than any of you and Saddam put together.

Please dont say 'we' i doubt how much of a hand you have in your countries foriegn policy towards Iraq other then a meager headshake when watching Bush on TV.

What you ve done is put the country under 10 years of economic sanctions , made the residents lives virtual hells with no family being able to support itself or live a life of peace or luxury. In turn many Iraqi's have left for neighbouring arab countries to work and earn a bit more money. And to get medicinal facilities which they were cut off from them. Thank you for your kindness.

Now whats with the personal attack of saying i havent done anything ? Plz elaborate on this how much do you know aboutme and my personal life to make such a blatantly arrogant and pathetically ignorant comment?

[walker 0]

Hi Acecombat

The personal attacks are certainly uncalled for.

On the meat of the matter though:

Should the US and UK troops stay on till an Iraqi elected government is in power? DAMN RIGHT You make a mess you fix it.

Should the peacekeeping force be internationalised? DAMN RIGHT wont happen with TBA in power

Should TBA and TBA2 resign/be impeached/voted out? DAMN RIGHT

Should they hunt down Sadamn? DAMN RIGHT Sadam will be funding whoever can get him back in power till he is dead and he wont be bothered if he is in power in Iraq or Syria or Saudi Arabia or any where else in the Arab world. Read the man it is obvious.

Will Al Queda work with Sadam? DAMN RIGHT My Enemies Enemy is my Friend. Sadam has lorry containers of foreighn currency as well as numbered Swiss Bank accounts. Al Queda could not hope for a better Sugar Daddy. The invasion gave Al Queda the kind of economic backing it has not seen since its parents the US CIA and Saudi business men dumped their wayward child

Will there be more than a thousand US/UK troops dead at the end of this? DAMN RIGHT probably way more and more bombs in more inocent cities round the world

The biggest failure in this war has been the TBA's complete failure to think through the strategic consequences of their actions. They had no after battle plan. No after battle risk assesment. No after battle analysis. They did this because they do not think strategicly. Bush is a light weight and all those who followed him are stupid enough to follow a light weight, so TBA2 and the rest of Bush's admin must fall also.

The failure here has been a political one not millitary. Your assesment Acecombat is coloured by your own political hopes and wishes. I think you would do better to think strategicly rather than like Mr Bush who you so despise. Think through the consequences of your actions. Find a solution. Does Sunni rulled Saudi Arabia realy want a northern neighbour, in civil war with Shiites, sitting on its border wanting to get back at Sunnis, who it sees as supporting Sadam in that future Civil War?

Like I said we the US and UK made the Mess. So it is better for all concerned if it is US and UK lives that are lost. As to loss of prestige: allready done makes no difference stay or leave.

Kind Regards Ian

[denoir 0]

Two blackhawks down. At least 12 dead.

[Acecombat 0]

Quote[/b] ]Should TBA and TBA2 resign/be impeached/voted out? DAMN RIGHT

What exactly are the chances of this happening? , one in a billion or a trillion? With the public support americans give to their president this is gonna be hard. Half of them dont even know what the war was about anyway let alone raise an outcry to impeach him , they feel the war was justified becoz it was to remove madman saddam , they dont wanna know anything else apart from that sole issue.

Quote[/b] ]Should they hunt down Sadamn? DAMN RIGHT Sadam will be funding whoever can get him back in power till he is dead and he wont be bothered if he is in power in Iraq or Syria or Saudi Arabia or any where else in the Arab world. Read the man it is obvious.

Do you really think hes running around Iraq with truck loads of money with him? I doubt it if he even managed to take some with him , if its gonna last long enough to help him get from one place to another let alone fund a whole war for the Al-quaida....

Quote[/b] ]Your assesment Acecombat is coloured by your own political hopes and wishes. I think you would do better to think strategicly rather than like Mr Bush who you so despise.

Excuse me ? I am sure i am not reading this right?

Why the heck would i have any political wishes ? Man i aint even a politician or anything that defines it , why would i have any political motives?? Strategic thinking is correct but at the moment i am thinking more in long term consequences ... this war isnt only endangering Iraq-Us soldiers and major ME de-stabilization ...its initiating a hidden sorta war of the civiliztions crisis. The more america makes defiant statements about staying in Iraq the more people here think of america as the evil imperiliast bad boy. IMO america should leave as is the situation in Iraq can only worsen (you wait and see ) with everyday , more terrorists wil rise everyday kids will see the image of american soldiers as Invaders more ignorant mullahs will raise a stupid Jihad on them , its a vicious cycle which has no end.

What i personally sometimes think of is that maybe America should adopt a isolationist policy , just simply shut it self from world affairs , and increase internal security which might even help them and quell there 24/7 fears of a terrorist attack.

If the Iraqis atm are not happy with the US just leave them alone when they find their country in ruins perhaps they'll wake up and figure out their own mistake and maybe then they'll come back to their senses. Let them stand on their own feet themselves , not every nation in the worlds history has had to be stabilized to make it functioning again .. i say let them be as is. Even though the US and UK owe them th rebuilding , i dont think they will even reach the re building process let alone finish this war properly. I know this may sound a bit extreme but america should leave them as is , let them figure there own way out now. Once maybe if US vacates the neighbouring Arab countries might even help them too ... ( the only problem with that would be the dumb sectarian violence .. thats the only major obstacle atm with this plan).

[Tamme 0]

I dont know who the american's are trying to fool this is a LOST battle once again they have humbled themselves by a bunch of guerillas , this war certainly isnt winnable for them at any xtent now , the best thing for them is to leave as is ASAP.

Not leave, but give the power to the iraqis. Which is what they are doing now. But they must stay there until the Iraqi government is strong enough to keep law&order.

[Acecombat 0]

I dont know who the american's are trying to fool this is a LOST battle once again they have humbled themselves by a bunch of guerillas , this war certainly isnt winnable for them at any xtent now , the best thing for them is to leave as is ASAP.

Not leave, but give the power to the iraqis. Which is what they are doing now. But they must stay there until the Iraqi government is strong enough to keep law&order.

I dunno man everyday i open the TV all i see is fighting in the streets , helos going down , and endless discussions asessing the geurilla strength no where do i see a positive step towards handing the govt to the Iraqis ASAP and getting out move.

The least americans could do atm is setup a Interim govt as in Afghanistan and Leave.

[Tamme 0]

I dont know who the american's are trying to fool this is a LOST battle once again they have humbled themselves by a bunch of guerillas , this war certainly isnt winnable for them at any xtent now , the best thing for them is to leave as is ASAP.

Not leave, but give the power to the iraqis. Which is what they are doing now. But they must stay there until the Iraqi government is strong enough to keep law&order.

I dunno man everyday i open the TV all i see is fighting in the streets , helos going down , and endless discussions asessing the geurilla strength no where do i see a positive step towards handing the govt to the Iraqis ASAP and getting out move.

The least americans could do atm is setup a Interim govt as in Afghanistan and Leave.

It was in the news today. The americans want to give the power back to the Iraqis ASAP. The election is next June if I'm correct.

Found something about it.

[walker 0]

Hi AceCombat

Washing your hands of it is a political statement. Blaming it on others is a political statement. That "it is not me its my goverment" argument is one you yourself have argued regulary

Quote[/b] ] What i personally sometimes think of is that maybe America should adopt a isolationist policy

is a political statement. Speaking on this forum at all is a political statement.

You are a political animal same as every other human being on this planet live with it.

The actual lorries with dollars and other foreign currencies being loaded on to them was seen by the Iraqi national bank employees among others. The numbered swiss accounts are standard practice for all dictators and powerful people. I realy dont think Sadam would miss that one. He dont need to run around with the lorries he just needs afew suitcases of it scattered round for personl use, a mobile phone or two and his Visa Cards. I traveled all the way through East Asia for over a year with just a couple of visa cards a hundred US dollars I never used and two hundred UK pounds in travlers cheques which I would use occasionaly

That TBA and TBA2 need to be removed from power is something I have continued to argue. Do I think it will happen? 100% certain if people do the same as me and keep saying it. I dont think either TBA or TBA2 will win the next elections. If we can ensure the presure is kept up on them. I am sure Tony blair will be asked to resign before the next election. There are already mutterings in his party and people are readying his air apparent Gordon Brown.

The labour party learned sense in the Thatcher years it will keep him as sacrficial goat till the pressure from the Hutton enquiry and the still to be set in motion Iraq enquiry make his removal useful as an escape valve. Say a year or so before the ellections. I realy dont see Bush winning the next ellection but I do not live in the US ask them.

Kind Regards Walker

[EiZei 0]

Judging by from what I have heard, the 2004 election will be a close call in the US. Not excatly a surprise if Blair ousted though.

[Col. Kurtz 0]

Two blackhawks down. At least 12 dead.

To add to that, death toll is 17 and there are reports that one was shot down by a rocket or missile and hit the other chopper, not one chopper rose to avoid gunfire and hit the other.

The BBC says Iraqi eye witnesses reported a rocket/missile strike but US military officials are keeping quite, while another news site reckons both Iraqi eye witnesses and US military officials are saying one was shot down and hit the other.

Bless the media!

[denoir 0]

Hi Denoir

That KIA per week Curve looks almost exponetial.

It's very much exponential. If we plot it on a logarithmic scale:

You can see that since beginning of August, it's almost perfectly linear in the logarithmic graph - which means that it's almost perfectly exponential on a normal scale.

A simple function fit gives:

The projected graph follows the equation (determined by least square method):

<table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tr><td>Code Sample </td></tr><tr><td id="CODE">y = 1.2*exp(0.015*x+2.0) + 25

Where y = total number of US KIA and x = days from may 1 st (We're at day 200 today). This trend has now been held for 100 days. If it holds, after 100 days more, there will be over 800 US KIA (beginning of February).

If you want to look for something positive, if you compare the period of May 1st - August 1st with August 1st - today, you can see from the top graph (log) that the rate of increase in KIA has fallen. There is a constant increase in attacks now, but it's less than the increase in attacks during the first 100 days.

Of course, you'd have to be prettty drunk to interpret that as a "good development".

[Jinef 2]

As my job revolves around rotary aircraft, here is an insight.

The rotary wing method of lift is not the most reliable, as it causes extreme inbalance in general aerodynamic forces that we are supposed to have understood (it's still all theory). This may be why so many crash.

To have so many aircraft (i read that the US Army is using around 200) operating in a relatively small area, taking into consideration the pilots will always be on alert for enemy activity and the climate conditions (Sand + engines = not good) the airframes are put under a lot of stress, as are the crew. The

chances of accident increase immensely than general training operations, obviously.

A 2 man flight crew has a lot to do, they will be scanning the instruments constantly looking for mechanical problems, radio traffic will be high and they will have to monitor it carefully. They also have to be looking around for other aircraft. The amount of information will be enormous, this is the reason for stringent aptitude tests for aircrew (the easiest method is to assign each other sectors of responsibility and constantly switch

between to make sure nothing is missed) as the multitasking and

calculating needed is immense.

We are taught to look at the instruments and then quickly cross reference them with the current conditions to make sure what they are telling you fits. I think one of the main problems is maybe too much instrumentation that takes the burden off the pilots, it requires less mental ability to follow the GPS generated line than to check landmarks, heading and calculate windspeed to put yourself in the right position. Another lesson we are taught, there is always something to do, so if you find yourself sitting back, then chances are something somwhere needs to be checked.

This is all however theory from training, i'm sure when put into Iraq, you are more concerned about the enemy and will take the instrument's word for it. I would not be suprised if one of the helicopters was in the wrong place due to lack of attention to navigation from the flight crew.

Making decisions, prioritising and multi tasking are very important aspects when it comes to operating any aircraft. The actual flying is second nature, you don't think about it you are mainly concentrated on being aware of what your aircraft is doing, what you tell it to do via the controls and what it does depending on the the matrix of forces and influences (not helped much by the introduction of a vast amount of high technology that complicates the troubleshooting involved when you realise your 500 metres off course (which in such a densely popluated area like an Iraqi city, where this invisible enemy is the priority, is a major problem) because your attention to landmarks and cross wind has been neglected.

This was for anyone wondering why so many helicopters have gone down in Iraq.

The other reason is - huge bits of metal revloving around a anothe bit of metal being held in the air by a very delicate balance + a small bit of metal with great velocity is then chucked at this other bit of metal, the impact (amplified by large expansion and contraction of gases) = delicate balance being interrupted so rudely that the bits of metal with massive momentum and a new vector decide they want to go earthwards. Then we get a fiery death for anyone who stupidly happened to be sitting suspended in this floating contraption.

The joys of rotary flight by Jinef

[Tamme 0]

Of course, you'd have to be prettty drunk to interpret that as a "good development".

US just has to export more booze to change the global opinion. Another problem solved by Tamme.

[walker 0]

Hi Denoir

The exponetial increase is a frightenning prospect.

At those rates we would expect weekly casualty rates to be 100 per week by February. I hesitate to go further as it leads to unsustainable rates of US casualties by June.

If such a situation holds and the US Staff must be aware of this they could not leave off the draft later than June if they were to stay in Iraq for the 2 years planned.

One can say it is just statistics but then why are US casualty rates going up so fast and what are TBA going to do about it?

Kind Regards Walker

[Tamme 0]

This really isn't good. I don't think TBA has done very much about it yet. Atleast I haven't heard anything. If they don't do something fast, It's gonna be a veeery bad situation for the US. Question is: What the hell should they do?

EDIT: Walker pretty much said the same thing I see.

[denoir 0]

As a former analyst, I can say the following:

The situation is worrying although far from critical. From a military point of view USA can without any problem sustain this trend for several years. There is however a serious political aspect to all this, especially with the presidential elections coming next year.

What can be done? The core problem is lack of progress in the rebuilding of Iraq. This is due to the lousy security situation. While the current trend may not seriously threat the occupational forces, they do pose a serious threat to the various civilian elements that are required to reconstruct Iraq. And as long as the reconstruction is failing, as long as the water, electricity and oil isn't flowing, the insurgents are going to gain in popularity.

The only solution is more troops. Lot more. At least four times the current active force. Then you can start getting some form of security and seriously begin the rebuilding. And when the quality of life of the Iraqis improves then the rebellion will hopefully die out.

The problem is that neiter USA nor the UK have the capacity to bring in as many troops as needed.

The worst possible thing would be to abandon Iraq and to make another Afghanistan out of it. Today Afghanistan is a complete disaster with war-lord ruling the various provinces and the people suffering worse than under the Taliban regime. Bringing such insecurity to the heart of Middle East would be a disaster for both the region and the world. An unstable Iraq means that the so called "war on terror" is lost.

[Albert Schweitzer 10]

Operation iron hammer, eh?

I thought against terorist hideouts and "pockets of resistance" it would need rather precise needle-stitches than clumsy hits with a hammer.

It reminds me of when I try to hit a fly. This little thing is so damn anoying and I cant hit it, I cant beat it, the fly is just too damn fast to me. So consequently, what is my last reaction? I get furious about my lack of success and hit all around me....untill I have broken everything in the room.. but the fly is still there.

This new operation (campaign) is a marketing trick but it wont help at all. The reistance is organised in a very intelligent way and composed of groups and subgroups..each with its own dedicated hidden amunition-depots.

But who decides on success or failure of the US-troops. Whether it may be democrats or republicans it wont matter, the Iraqwar will be considered as a success. They will withdraw sooner or later and just call it a "finished job". But we know from Afghanistan what that means.

During the last weeks I followed my favourite hobby. Screening through the fori with rather extremist opinions. The last one was a real US-military  forum for soldiers and associate workers, retirees or simply enthusiasts. Would you believe that noone has even the slightest doubt about the success of the campaign? It seems that the military is so republican-brainwashed that even the slightest criticism would be considered unpatriotic. Republicans are always right eh?

And our statements, the european point of view is seen not only seen as treachery but the creation of a new enemy to the US.

Scary, I tell you, realy realy scary. But having watched "US rocks the vote" on CNN(presentation of democrat candidates) I must say: The is more than just hope for the US.  

[denoir 0]

How dare you!   Saddam lover!    

Actually we could use a few patriots here in this thread. Right now we're mostly a bunch of non-Americans pointing out and agreeing how bad the war is going. Even the liberal Americans have for the most part withdrawn from the discussions here..

[EiZei 0]

Of course, you'd have to be prettty drunk to interpret that as a "good development".

US just has to export more booze to change the global opinion. Another problem solved by Tamme.

Export budweiser? Are you sure thats not a violation of geneve convention?

[Acecombat 0]

Denoir what makes you think Iraq will turn in to a another Afghanistan if left alone?

Afghanistan always has been in the past a territory which hasnt bene under anyones grip , the race their is very independent. I dont think Iraq can turn in to another Afghanistan becoz unlike Afghanistan , iraq has the financial assets to become something rather then wait on for Int'l aid. i think even the Arab countries might help Iraq more if the US left it.

[denoir 0]

Somebody has to be in control of those financial assets. Due to the internal divisions and tribal nature of Iraq there has to be a strong government. Saddam filled this role.

There is no Iraq per se as it is an artificially imposed union. To make the different factions work together there has to be a strong central power.

[RedLion 0]

“Please dont say 'we' i doubt how much of a hand you have in your countries foriegn policy towards Iraq other then a meager headshake when watching Bush on TV.â€

**You are right, I don’t have a hand, I have two hands and both of them helped me punch in his name at the ballot booth during the election year.

“What you ve done is put the country under 10 years of economic sanctions , made the residents lives virtual hells with no family being able to support itself or live a life of peace or luxuryâ€

**Really, we have done all that? http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/16/international/middleeast/16KUT.html

“In turn many Iraqi's have left for neighbouring arab countries to work and earn a bit more money. And to get medicinal facilities which they were cut off from them. Thank you for your kindness.â€

**I am really astonished as to how you decipher and interpret progress.

http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20030603-084008-6883r.htm

Here is another link so you can better stand on these issues you mentioned.

http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/newiraq/

“Plz elaborate on this how much do you know aboutme and my personal life to make such a blatantly arrogant and pathetically ignorant comment?â€

**My apologies. If my statement read as if it was a personal attack, please do not interprit it as such. But after so many years of public debates not only locally but also world wide, via the United Nations and its many resolutions, our government took the initiative to act while many sat idle. My statement meant to put forward a general sense of our accomplishments and how we have achieved this independently for the most part. If you couldn’t interpret, comprehend or even clearly understand my post, I am sorry. I said - And at the end, we ought to be very proud that we have done more for these people than any of you and Saddam put together. – Since I am responding to the exchange of ideas displayed in this topic about Iraq, I am referring to a group of people, a collective of those who think that the collation forces are failing in their mission to rebuilt Iraq. Is that enough ignorance for you?

Regards,

RedLion