Japan hit by 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami

[walker 0]

Hi all

Back to the topic which is not me.

I think it might help people to understand the risks with following information.

This first set of links are Wikipedia so if you do not like Wikipedia at the bottom of each of the Wikipedia pages is the links to the sources, you can also use Google on key words. Or you can go to your local public or University Library.

This is what a Sievert is

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert

These are the multiples it is measured in

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert#SI_multiples_and_conversions

Watch out for these.

These are example doses both single, hourly, yearly and over a lifetime.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert#Dose_Examples

These are the syptoms for different doses

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert#Symptom_benchmarks

This is the analysis from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission based on available data from only one reactor failing.

http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/news/2011/11-050_Attchmt.pdf

It uses Roentgen Equivalent in Man (REM)s not Seiverts. 100 Rem equals 1 Sievert. Though there are absorbing part of body factors to be considered too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rem_(unit)

It also talks about Protectice Action Guides (PAG)

http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/rert/pags.html

This is the EPA manual for what to do in a Nuclear Accedent eg how you apply a PAG.

http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/docs/er/400-r-92-001.pdf

Esentialy once a PAG is exceded you need to act.

In the case of most of those doses in the NRC anaysis you need to move people away, condemn food, water, milk etc.

As you can see the NRC thinks that if even one of the reactors failed as they are doing that those actions need to be carried out for people as far away as 50 miles.

The next problem is getting realistic data about the number of Sieverts in various locations.

The major problem here is that the company that runs the plants has been caught faking data for its safety procedures even to the IAEA. And in the particular case of this incedent has been reporting plant doses from various locations in order to make it appear that the actions it is taking are having an effect. So when their was a 1000 mSv reading at the reactors in the Fukushima plant it pulled its staff out raised the legaly acceptable radiation levels for them then put them back in they did some work and to make it appaer the plan had worked went and measures the radiation level at the gate two Kilometres away and said look we are fixing it. The radation level at the Fukushima plant has dropped to 2 or 3 mSv.

"Headlie" round the world Radiation levels at Fukushima drop. Odd that the Helicopters had to be called back when radiation dropped dont you think? Heck it is odd they are having to use helicopters and watercannons at all if the radiation at the plant has dropped.

Walker

Edited March 17, 2011 by walker

[Tonci87 163]

Way better Walker, way better ;)

[st_dux 26]

The amount of misinformation, hyperbole, and complete fear mongering in the media over this is amazing. Anyone with any knowledge of Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, nuclear energy, or even a basic understanding of nuclear physics can easily cut through this BS thats being spread.

Unfortunately, it's not all that amazing at this point. Fear mongering over nuclear energy has been going on for decades. Whenever anyone gets a whiff of any sort of potential issue with any nuclear technology at all, public panic and willful ignorance become rampant. It's absolutely inane.

Fact: There have been exactly zero people in Japan who have thus far died on account of radiation resulting from damage to nuclear facilities due to the recent earthquake. Meanwhile, there have been 10,000+ who have died as a result of tsunamis.

And yet the human herd continues to obsess over the former while mostly ignoring the latter.

[whisper 0]

Just about millisievert measurement, I heard an interview from a Dr who has been studying population from Hiroshima, Nagazaki & Tchernobyl areas, and has been conducting statistics & research on these populations.

He quite put things into perspective with this :

Statistically, the exposition to a 150mSv radiation will raise the chance of developing a cancer by the same amount as smoking a pack of 20 cigarets per day for 1 month.

Of course, I suppose higher level of exposition are not linearly raising the chance of illness, but it put things into perspective a bit. It's sure bad, it's not immediate life end

Edited March 17, 2011 by whisper

[SteveJA 12]

Just got to say your "fact" about no one dieing from the direct cause of radiation is true, however experience tells us that effects of radiation do not happen instantly (unless there is hidious levels of it). Look at Chernobyl, some of the staff died weeks later after exposoure.

However your last point suggests that you belive "the herd" "mostly ignores" the tragedy caused by the Tsunami, and choose to "obsess" over the Nuclear problem.

Im not surpirsed that this is the case, in fact i guess im one of "the herd". I guess the differance between the two events are the Tsunami has happened and finished, whereas the Nuclear plant is still having problems AND the problems could persist for a long time (if worst case scenario unfolds). Secondly Nuclear power (i think most people find) very interesting. Its like no other disaster.

By the way, when i say this, i by no means belive ethier tragedy is less important than the other.

Edited March 17, 2011 by SteveJA360

[whisper 0]

imho, one of the worst thing that could happen is fear of nuclear preventing help to reach the population in deep trouble due to Tsunami

[walker 0]

Hi all

What is needed is a radiation monitoring map of the plant, then a similar one at spot distances from it.

Of course that is what Tokyo Electric do not want.

EDIT

Surprise!

I found it, only I did not! Data for both, Fukushima or the next nearest province to the plant, Miyagi is missing. The nearest prefecture with data is Ibaraki. Where a reading of 852 (nGy/h) is considered normal. Which is in itself odd as most other prefectures have sub 100 (nGy/h) levels.

http://www.bousai.ne.jp/eng/

Problematic that the data for the area everyone wants is offline.

Another edit

So I did a little digging and I found another version of the map where they explained the missing data

Updated on March 18, 2011 01:00 (JST)(Japan Standard Time)Realtime radiation data collected via the System for Prediction of Environment Emergency Dose Information(SPEEDI)This Results are the maximum values of the space those ratedistributions shown from local governments in the latest updated date and time Not surprisingly, Miyagi and Fukushima are completely N/A, as every single reading is Under Survey, also known as censored.nGy/h (nano- Grays per hour)Ishikawa is reported also as Under Survey

NB My use of bold in the quote

http://www.targetmap.com/viewer.aspx?reportId=4870

I thought what are these nano- Grays per hour?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_(unit)

Now I have to sit and do the Math, I could be some time ;)

Yet Another Edit

My brain hurt too much so I cheated!

http://www.unitconversion.org//unit_converter/radiation-ex.html

Well half way got to convert Hours to seconds first!

We only have one set of data because the rest is censored.

The Ibaraki reading of 852 (nGy/h) so needs must.

852/60 to get minutes

Equals 14.2 nano- Grays per minute

14.2/60

Equals 0.23666666666666666666666666666667 nano- Grays per second

Which according to the converter is 0.000000024 REM per second (still have to check how correct that is, but as I said it makes my brain hurt)

Now back up to hours

0.000000024 x 60 = 0.00000144 REM per Minute

0.00000144 x 60 = 0.0000864 REM per Hour

From the EPA manual for what to do in a Nuclear Accident eg how you apply a PAG. http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/docs/er/400-r-92-001.pdf

Page 23.

...

2.3.1 Evacuation and Sheltering

The Basics for PAGs is given in Appendix C. In Summary, this indicates that evacuation of the public will usually be justified when the projected dose is one rem...

How long can the people of Ibaraki live in their homes?

So how long until those poor unfortunates in Ibaraki are predicted to get a 1 rem dose?

1/0.0000864 = 11574.074074074074074074074074074 Hours;

messy lets turn that into days

11574.074074074074074074074074074/24 = 482.25308641975308641975308641975 Days

Still messy how many years can they live there?

482.2530864197530864197530864197 / 364 = 1.3546435011790817034262727146622 years

Can some kind soul check my figures?

Or put in another way they can live there for a further about 1 year and 4 months.

Of course this assumes that the radiation levels stay the same! They could go up! they could go down!

Is there any where in the world where radiation has leaked on a such a vast scale in the past? How did the radiation levels go there?

Walker

Edited March 17, 2011 by walker

[sprayer_faust 0]

I just watched this BBC documentary drama about Chernobyl yesterday. I'm posting this, because I think it is interesting and well acted.

Part 1:

zyHvDhILYl8

Part 2:

Part 3:

Part 4:

Part 5:

Part 6:

Regarding Fukushima: Fingers crossed. :)

As long as the containment vessel stays intact, it won't be as bad.

In my opinion the people buying iodide pills, very far from the disaster area and before meltdown accompanied with the atmospheric release actually happened, are paranoid. Most of them probably don't even understand their mechanism of action.

[whisper 0]

Walker,

1st, you are using the top of the red area scale, which goes from 81 to 847. That's a 10x difference here.

2nd, I find a low 0.0198 mSv/day. To be compared with my cigarets comparison above ;)

EDIT : aww, didn't see the direct figures table at bottom. ok, 800+ nGy it is, then. High, not catastrophic

Edited March 17, 2011 by whisper

[walker 0]

...Regarding Fukushima: Fingers crossed. :)

As long as the containment vessel stays intact, it won't be as bad...

Err.

How to tell you this?

I suggest reading the thread.

But here is a precis of the facts relevant to your statement:

Three outer containment's are bust. There are some photographs in the thread sort of before and after pics.

According to various sources one possibly two inner containment vessels are cracked.

And in the case of Reactor No.4 the active fuel rods were placed in a cooling pool while maintenance was carried out along with masses of used fuel rods.

The Reactor No.4 pool was under an outer containment but it is one of the three outer containment's that have been destroyed. So all its fuel is now out in the open air and the pool no longer has water in it. As a result the fuel in that pool has caught fire and is so radioactive that they cannot get near Reactor No.3 because of it.

This is important because Reactor No.3 is the MOX reactor. The one with plutonium in it. Having said that, all the reactors had cooling pools on top of them that contain(ed) used fuel rods that have urainum that has turned to plutonium in them. The exploding outer reactor containments may have scattered these rods about the plant. In particular the explosion at Reactor No.3 .

Here is a Time article explaining.

http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/03/17/mox-the-fukushima-word-of-the-day-and-why-its-bad-news/

Of course spent fuel rods are at least as big a problem as the MOX reactor as is explained in this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world/asia/18spent.html?src=twrhp

New Readers start here!

This is another breakdown of the state of the reactors

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/breakdown-the-fight-to-contain-the-damage-at-japans-fukushima-daiichi-nuclear-plant/article1946111/

Kind Regards walker

Edited March 17, 2011 by walker

[jblackrupert 14]

And the true friend of the year award goes to....

bQFZPYVXy1A

Whats the difference between a human smiling at you and a dog wagging it's tail?

You can trust the dog.

* Both dogs were taken to a vet and staying at a kennel now.

Edited March 17, 2011 by jblackrupert

[walker 0]

Hi all

Latest aerial pictures of the plant show the devastation at the Fukushima plant.

http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/03/17/6290420-new-closer-aerial-views-of-wrecked-reactor-in-japan

According to the Telegraph and photograph the Cooling pool on reactor 4 is wide open, on fire and in danger of meltdown.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8389415/Japan-nuclear-plant-exposed-to-the-elements-nuclear-fuel-in-meltdown.html

I believe the green object is the crane that moves the fuel rods from the reactor to the cooling pool. The smoke to its left is the cooling pool.

Radiation doses 20 miles from the plant are already Double the limit for Nuclear workers.

Walker

Edited March 17, 2011 by walker

[Tonci87 163]

It looks like someone bombed it. They aren´t getting back into service after this...

[walker 0]

Hi All

Australia has now upgraded its warning for Tokyo.

Travel advice for Australians in Japan has been dramatically upgraded by the Department of Foreign Affairs, with people now being told not to travel to Tokyo, its surrounding areas or northern Honshu...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/18/3167146.htm?section=justin

Walker

[walker 0]

Hi all

Radiation Levels have reached 4000 millisivert (mSv) per hour

http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/radiation-risk-fukushima-plant-escalates

walker

[noubernou 77]

Hi all

Radiation Levels have reached 4000 millisivert (mSv) per hour

http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/radiation-risk-fukushima-plant-escalates

walker

You know why they spike right? It spikes when they do a planned release of steam from one of the containment vessels. That measurement is only really valid RIGHT NEXT to the reactor. Within a kilometer or so its back down to "acceptable" levels, and within a few hours even the area around the reactor buildings is again safe to work in for periods of time.

These spikes are predicted and intentional.

[Darkhorse 1-6 16]

Yeah. It took me a while to think of the right phrase, but now I've got it.

Walker tends to abuse facts. He's even raped a couple in the past :p. Whether its done on purpose or not I don't know, but almost all of his posts about this sort of thing have a bit of fear-mongering in them.

Now Walker, I'm not saying this as an insult, as your posts are generally correct, provide a lot more usable information, and come with references, but you can't seem to stop posting things that seem designed to incite panic and fear.

OT: anybody have any articles about damage in the south? I know it wasn't nearly as bad,, but even a small wave can do a lot of damage.

[noubernou 77]

Yeah. It took me a while to think of the right phrase, but now I've got it.

Walker tends to abuse facts. He's even raped a couple in the past :p. Whether its done on purpose or not I don't know, but almost all of his posts about this sort of thing have a bit of fear-mongering in them.

Now Walker, I'm not saying this as an insult, as your posts are generally correct, provide a lot more usable information, and come with references, but you can't seem to stop posting things that seem designed to incite panic and fear.

OT: anybody have any articles about damage in the south? I know it wasn't nearly as bad,, but even a small wave can do a lot of damage.

South of where?

I know that the wave did not interact with Japan really below the Tokyo Bay entrance, and I think it was even further north where the damage stopped (I think Fukushima was near the southern edge of the damage area).

A friend of mine is in Nagoya and they had no damage in the bay there, and my brother was in Kobe (he returned home today, though not because of the earthquake, but because he finished his school year and was supposed to come home today anyways) and there was no damage in Osaka or Kobe along the inland sea. His host brother lives in Okinawa and they had no tsunami there.

[Rommel 2]

South of where?

A friend of mine is in Nagoya and they had no damage in the bay there, and my brother was in Kobe (he returned home today, though not because of the earthquake, but because he finished his school year and was supposed to come home today anyways) and there was no damage in Osaka or Kobe along the inland sea. His host brother lives in Okinawa and they had no tsunami there.

You make it sound as if the whole thing is one big conspiracy, and the media is all lying to us.

[whisper 0]

The media is over-dramatizing things, if you ask me. Most probably because of lack of informations, and lack of perspective on nuclear events (luckily!).

Not saying everything is fine, but we simply don't know much

The problem for me is that the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami is now completely shadowed by the nuclear event, at least from our point of view in western countries, and we don't know much of what is happening for people lost there. Over dramatizing the nuclear events could be catastrophic for populations tryingn to survive the tsunami after-effects.

But there again, we don't know much

Edited March 18, 2011 by whisper

[walker 0]

You know why they spike right? It spikes when they do a planned release of steam from one of the containment vessels. That measurement is only really valid RIGHT NEXT to the reactor. Within a kilometer or so its back down to "acceptable" levels, and within a few hours even the area around the reactor buildings is again safe to work in for periods of time.

These spikes are predicted and intentional.

Hi NouberNou

And that the spikes are rising tells you what?

Kind Regards walker

---------- Post added at 10:52 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:54 AM ----------

Yeah. It took me a while to think of the right phrase, but now I've got it.

Walker tends to abuse facts. He's even raped a couple in the past :p. Whether its done on purpose or not I don't know, but almost all of his posts about this sort of thing have a bit of fear-mongering in them.

Now Walker, I'm not saying this as an insult, as your posts are generally correct, provide a lot more usable information, and come with references, but you can't seem to stop posting things that seem designed to incite panic and fear.

OT: anybody have any articles about damage in the south? I know it wasn't nearly as bad,, but even a small wave can do a lot of damage.

Hi Darkhorse 1-6

Why am I doing this?

The nature of debate, and this is a "forum" for which the very concept is one of debate, is that people take a range of views of a subject and express them.

To some I am overplaying to others I am underplaying it.

I make my posts with purpose and intent. Something I have said many times in many threads.

I particularly do it when I know we, as in the general public/man on the Clapham Omnibus, are being lied to; for, in this case, the personal gain of those in the Nuclear Power industry.

I have seen a plethora of industry experts over the last few weeks deliberately down play what is going on. At each stage I have taken an oposite view in this very thread and been proved correct by later released information. Check back through this thread. Every statement I have made, even the the "Infamous red text post." The fact that now many of those industry experts are now publicly saying the same things I said 24 hours ago and that found to be so by basic research, tells you something.

Heck now most of them are singing from the same music sheet as I am.

Bare in mind those who speak, are not those who do, the Fukushima 50, are not and never would be PR men. Often time, people like the Fukushima 50 are the whistle blowers who the PR executives loath. While the PR executives are usualy, not always though, those not good enough to do the task and less capabable than those who teach the task. Often times people who do PR are by their nature people who cover up. In the case of the executives of Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) we have evidense from a source that they deliberately falsified tests in Reactors in order to cover up failures in their safety even going so far as to do things that could have caused accedents in the tests.

Why I am doing this Explained

There is a dynamic to an emergency. Same as there is a dynamic to a battle. In battle it is called the initiative. If you behind that dynamic. You are loosing that battle.

If the velocity at which an emergency is escalating is faster than you are escalating then by definition you have lost!

There is a need some times, and I would submit this is one, to inject more into the escalation of the effort. So that one gets in front of emergency where one can do something about it rather than as has been happening up to now, behind it clearing up afterwards.

Now I am not saying that the great "I am" is doing this for I am just one voice among many who are taking this view. The oposite view. The one that says GET A MOVE ON! I can see how some see that as panic or fear mongering though.

My Secondary Purpose is political

I do not believe the nuclear power industry is safe. I am engaged, as many other in battle with people like these:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-nuclear-advocates-try-to-limit-political-impact-of-japan-reactor-crisis/2011/03/17/AB6sr0k_story.html

In fact this has pointed out the risks of all those pools of fuel rods, held in exactly the same way in the US UK France etc. to one and all.

These were risks many of us, and yes I am one of those, pointed out for decades, and suffered ridicule for it.

Well today we get to say: "Told you so!" but it is as we expected, ashes in our mouths.

Kind Regards walker

Edited March 18, 2011 by walker

[whisper 0]

I do not believe the nuclear power industry is safe.

I don't believe power industry is safe

British Petroleum Deepwater Horizon nightmare last year just shown us how out of control oil energy can go. And there was NOTHING they could do about it until they had a second hole dug.

We have here in France some dams critically placed, which in case of events like in Japan, would raise a hell of a mess here. We even have some Seveso-class chemical plant on the path of potential flow of water in case accident happen.

There is no safe power industry.

What we should fight for now is trying to end lobbyism and industries deliberately hiding things. Things should be shown clearly to everyone

[walker 0]

Hi all

As I noted previously:

IAEA head wont go to Fukushima he says he needs more information. Err?

http://www.agi.it/english-version/world/elenco-notizie/201103180738-cro-ren1007-japan_iaea_head_won_t_go_to_fukushima_more_information

He is the head of the IAEA, the nuclear watch dog, in charge of the what was it now? yet he does not have enough information?

What he does know has turned his underpants brown. IMHO

By the way these problems were predicted 35 years ago

http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/03/16/fukushima-reactor-flaws-were-predicted-%E2%80%93-35-years-ago/

As the Japan belatedly raises the emergency to a level 5

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20110318-326207/Japan-agency-raises-Fukushima-accident-level-to-5

walker

---------- Post added at 11:21 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:19 AM ----------

What we should fight for now is trying to end lobbyism and industries deliberately hiding things. Things should be shown clearly to everyone

Hi whisper

Yet those fingers stretch everywhere, heck even here.

Kind Regards walker

---------- Post added at 12:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:21 AM ----------

Hi all

This in reality is, and I know this will disturb many, potentially worse than Chernobyl

And I am not the only one thinking this.

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/03/17/6290171-is-it-time-for-the-chernobyl-option

The fact is that that vast tons of spent fuel at Fukushima dwarfs the dangers of Chernobyl.

The first of the planes chartered by the UK Government to evacuate UK nationals has left Japan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12783934

Most other nations are already doing this.

Latest film from Fukushima.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8389661/New-footage-of-damaged-Fukushima-reactor.html

What are all those objects of the same dimensions scattered around the plant?

This is what I mean by the dangers of failing to escalate your emergency response faster than the emergency is developing, and why red Bold text and SHOUTING what some call "Fear Mongering" and I call common sense, is really needed.

Japan admits response slow, asks for U.S. help

Originally published: March 18, 2011 6:32 AM

Updated: March 18, 2011 1:01 PM

By The Associated Press

Sirens wailed Friday along a devastated coastline to mark exactly one week since an earthquake and tsunami triggered a nuclear emergency, and the government acknowledged it was slow to respond to the disasters that the prime minister called a "great test for the Japanese people."

The admission came as Japan welcomed U.S. help in stabilizing its overheated, radiation-leaking nuclear complex...

http://www.newsday.com/news/world/japan-admits-response-slow-asks-for-u-s-help-1.2766936

Walker

Edited March 18, 2011 by walker

[walker 0]

Hi all

There are far too many people saying its all right, its not as bad as Chernobyl, Yet would be my response.

FAR TOO MUCH COMPLACENCY.

If the atmosphere of complacency that basically was present as a result of peoples blind acceptance of the mouthings of PR people and blandishments of so called industry experts; had they been challenged by more people from the start, then perhaps much of this disaster would have been averted.

People really have to take their heads out of their arses, and I include people who commented in this thread.

Nuclear Power is far too serious a matter to be left to people who make money out of it.

It shocks me that the Head of the IAEA admits he does not have enough information to do his job.

The second major problem is Western Complacency. We are the West we know how to do it. We never do anything stupid like the Russians.

Well today we know all the Western nuclear power plants are making exactly the same errors as Japan. Fuel out in the open. Reactor cooling that is not fail safe. Failure to take notice of and cherish Whistle blowers.

Pride.

What comes before the fall.

We did the same with the banking crisis.

We did the same with oil exploration.

We are doing the same with reliance on fossil fuels, despite knowing full well they are running out.

The west needs to take its head out of its ass and start taking care of business.

Back to the topic

Things like this would not be happening if people had taken this event more serously at the beginning.

Radiation hampers efforts to restore power to nuclear plant in Japan

Efforts to try to restore power to reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi complex are interrupted as high radiation forces the withdrawal of workers...

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-japan-reactor-damage-20110318,0,6146639.story

This page has a sober assesment of the current state of play

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/mar/18/japan-nuclear-power-plant-updates

Regards walker

Edited March 20, 2011 by walker
grammar

[nettrucker 142]

The west needs to take its head out of its ass and start taking care of business.

I agree with you Walker but that ain't gonna happen. Financial interests are bigger then paying attention to our environment. We humans are the only lifeform on earth which don't give shit about our future generation and their survival. It's gonna end some time and we are doing everything possible to accelerate the end.

kind regards