The German election

[Bernadotte 0]

Otherwise I can't see how Schroeder justifies his current position as seeing himself as a winner - I'd prefer he admitted defeat as did Al Gore back then - I don't like the idea of a long-winded power struggle; that's the least we would need    

Actually, Al Gore did not concede defeat until 36 days and several court challenges after election day. So let's hope Schroeder does not take as long.

[WhoCares 0]

...

Actually, Al Gore did not concede defeat until 36 days and several court challenges after election day.  So let's hope Schroeder does not take as long.

Could I be that wrong??? I thought he gave in pretty fast, conceding defeat within a few hours. IIRC, there was some aftermath mostly with respect to Florida but officially he conceded the same night. If my memory serves me right even with arguments like not to drag the nation into a longwinded juristical aftermath...

Anyway, the SPD should certainly not do such stunts as speaking of the CDU and CSU as seperate parts. Technically they are of course, but they can't seriously consider making them split apart. That's like grasping for imaginary straws...

[denoir 0]

You are both right.

Quote[/b] ]Al Gore publicly conceded the election after the December 12, 2000 Supreme Court decision in Bush v. Gore. The Court voted 7-2 to end the recount on the grounds that differing standards in different counties constituted an equal protection violation, and 5-4 that no new recount with uniform standards could be conducted. Gore strongly disagreed with the court's decision, but conceded the election "for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy". He had previously made a concession phone call to Bush the night of the election, then retracted it after learning just how close the election was.

[wikipedia]

[Bernadotte 0]

Questions for anyone who might know:

Would it be possible for a grand coalition between SPD and CDU to be created without including Stoiber's CSU?

And how many of CDU's 225 parliamentary seats were actually won by CSU?

This could be one approach whereby Schroeder tries arguing that SPD actually did win the most seats given that they won 34.3% of the vote compared to 27.8% for CDU.

[Daddl 10]

Jez, what a mess! Didn't have a chance to comment on this before, but Müntefering had me fall off the couch laughing when he announced last evening that "the vote had confirmed Schröder as the chancelor" - that was when the difference between the two parties was still estimated at 2 percent... He was always a good comedian, but I heard Schröder was even better during the "Elefantenrunde" (missed that like the rest of the election night). How blind with power lust must you be to be so much in denial???

In my opinion a big coalition is the only way to resolve the blockade in the Bundesrat and to get the nescesary legislation through quickly (together they would have the absolute majority, rendering the oposition powerless). At the moment the CDU/CSU can block allmost all laws in the Bundesrat, and the SPD is required to keep them from going metal and reverting all positive changes that happened over the last years. I don't think that weak coalition partners (who are very much in disagreement with each other) in a Jamaica-coalition could keep them in check (the FDP never managed with Kohl) - and any coalition with the Linke wouldn't work out either (for personal and political reasons).

Or, let's vote again.

Edit: A grand coalition without the CSU is not possible - that would cost the conservatives a good share of their seats and weaken the CDU too much compared to Schröder. Anyways, they are for all practical aspects one single party (consider the CSU the bavarian section of the CDU).

[vektorboson 8]

Questions for anyone who might know:

Would it be possible for a grand coalition between SPD and CDU to be created without including Stoiber's CSU?

Mathematically yes, politically no. In that case the CDU/CSU-partnership would break away and there was the possibility that the CSU would candidate for whole germany, dividing the conservatives.

Quote[/b] ]

This could be one approach whereby Schroeder tries arguing that SPD actually did win the most seats given that they won 34.3% of the vote compared to 27.8% for CDU.

That's a rather pointless argument. Everyone sees CDU/CSU as almost an unity, and nobody can imagine one without the other.

I think we've got a pretty interesting scenario, where nobody has the upper hand. I suspect, that this could lead into new elections, as nobody seems to want to move towards the other (with exception of the Greens).

[denoir 0]

Is there any reason why a CDU/FDP/Grüne won't be the end result? I mean if the Greens have said to be willing to join CDU, it seems like the outcome is decided...

[vektorboson 8]

Is there any reason why a CDU/FDP/Grüne won't be the end result? I mean if the Greens have said to be willing to join CDU, it seems like the outcome is decided...

The greens didn't say that they are willing to join CDU, they just didn't say that they are not willing to join the CDU. (Instead the Liberals don't want to work with the Greens).

But it seems that many greens already think about such a coalition, though many say, take Fischer for example, that they personally won't take part in it.

Also they said they'd prefer Klaus Töpfer (CDU) as Chancellor, who works for the UN, and shares many green ideas; Merkel is rather not probable.

[WhoCares 0]

I would imagine that the Greens would break apart upon such a stunt. It was already hard enough to get the green fundamentalists aligned by the 'Realos' (political realists, like Fischer and Kuenast) to work with the SPD, I can't see this happening with the CDU+CSU+FDP.

I just try to imagine Trittin next to Stoiber and Beckstein in a cabinet round, now that would be funny

[Bernadotte 0]

This could be one approach whereby Schroeder tries arguing that SPD actually did win the most seats given that they won 34.3% of the vote compared to 27.8% for CDU.

That's a rather pointless argument. Everyone sees CDU/CSU as almost an unity, and nobody can imagine one without the other.

Pointless maybe, but it was repeatedly emphasized by an SPD spokesman at today's press conference that they do not consider CDU and CSU to be the same party.

[Daddl 10]

Of course they don't - otherwise their flawed argument about being the winner of the election would be pointless.

Fact is that the CDU/CSU have been a single political unit in federal politics since their founding after the war. The CDU has no candidates in Bavaria, and the CSU has no candidates in any other federal state. During the last federal election the leader of the CSU, Edmund Stoiber, was the candidate for both parties, this time it was the leader of the CDU Angela Merkel.

As I said, for all practical considerations they are one and the same party as far as federal politics are concerned. The argument that they are (which is true) two political parties is laughable when faced with reality.

[Balschoiw 0]

Well, lets try to keep it with the written law and facts.

1.The cancellor is to be determined by parliament fractions.

Merkel will get no support from the parliament, so that case is done. She won´t get cancellor.

2.

Quote[/b] ]Of course they don't - otherwise their flawed argument about being the winner of the election would be pointless.

This happened before. Kiesinger was pretty sure he would get cancellor but a split agreement between Brand and Scheel kept him from it. So the split count between CDU and CSU is nothing new and is conform with current law.

3. A union between CDU/CSU FDP and the Greens is very unlikely as the fundamental claims of all 4 partners are different like black and white. Apart from that the members of each parties would never accept such for good reasons.

4. The "Ampel" coalition, SPD, FDP, Greens was ruled out by Westerwelle, but there is movement from the FDP party towards such a solution as it would be the only way for FDP to actually take benefit of their election result.

On a sidenote I have to say that without SPD / Green policy over the last years Westerwelle would be history already as they were the ones who spread wide acceptance of homosexuals within the german society. So maybe Guido Westerwelle should give it a second thought

Merkel will not survive the current development. She is the one who will be blamed for the failure of the campaign. People within the CDU and CSU are already polishing their daggers. It´s a real miracle how you can manage to fail a vote under that circumstances.

Well I don´t cry a tear.

If the CDU / CSU really want to contribute to germany and it´s people which they swore to do, they should pack their asses one floor higher and cooperate with the SPD. The blockade they kept up during the last years was disgusting. They claim that there are so many propblems that need to be solved, but hinder those initiatives whereever they can. I want to see responsible politicians. Taking responsibility means to get over fraction arrogance and into the matters that are important for germany and it´s people. That should be their focus. Not who has more power and influence or is the best lobbyist.

Reelections are not on my list.

I guess the german people have made clear that they don´t want Merkel´s neo-liberalists running germany. They have made clear that they don´t want to social state stripped down to it´s raw bones and they have made clear that they don´t give their vote for "reforms" which spread the burden to all but only give benefit to companies and the wealthier population.

They should for one freaking moment get over their party progrmas and guidelines, stop election campaigning and do what they are paid for by us. They should try to cooperate to get germany back into the first line and show that they can work together. How can you explain a 10 year olfd kid that east and west germany should come together if not even the politicians manage to get over their attitudes.

If they want to go on playing power-games, they should be put in a sack and sunk in a deep river alltogether.

They say we need this and that, never go into detail but of course oppose every single word from a politician coming from the other shore.

This has to stop now. And the voter decided exactly that.

No favour for Red, Black, a favour for a common initiative. That´s what the voter voted for. And that´s what he/she wants to see now.

[kavoven 4]

Bals, I can't believe you're supporting this stupid and and arrogant behaviour...

The german people are FOOLED by the damn lies of Schröder and all the other SPD members. And they're fooled by the damn disguised communists. And Schröder would make a coalition with them, if it supported HIS OWN job! His is nothing als as a traitor, who is too stupid to know, when his time has run out.

I better stop know, otherwise I'm getting too angry...

[Bernadotte 0]

Bals, I can't believe you're supporting this stupid and and arrogant behaviour...

The german people are FOOLED by the damn lies of Schröder and all the other SPD members. And they're fooled by the damn disguised communists. And Schröder would make a coalition with them, if it supported HIS OWN job! His is nothing als as a traitor, who is too stupid to know, when his time has run out.

I better stop know, otherwise I'm getting too angry...

I really appreciate it when someone like Bals has the guts to put his predictions in writing.

How about telling us your predictions?  

[lwlooz 0]

Damned if I am proved wrong,but I can't believe how someone can accept those weird theories the SPD is putting out.If someone is power-hungry,then it is Schroeder. Currently I think it will be a CDU+SPD government in the end,but without Schroeder(who only cares about himself and I bet would only reverse anything he has promised if he got into power) and without Merkel. If those 2 personalities are taken out (well,including Stoiber) then I think it would work out.

[denoir 0]

No favour for Red, Black, a favour for a common initiative. That´s what the voter voted for. And that´s what he/she wants to see now.

Not necessarily. It could be exactly the other way around - if you voted for CDU, it was probably to get rid of SDP. Given the poor campaigns on all sides, it would seem to me that a majority of people were voting against somebody, rather than for somebody. In that case a grand coalition is the worst for all voters - the idiots you didn't want to have power, who you voted against, become a part of government.

It's not a prediction, but my personal opinion that if at this point there are no natural coalitions then there should be a re-election.

[Bernadotte 0]

There's a lot of interesting data on this news page.

Thanks to 'WhoCares' for posting it yesterday.  

It shows an enormous split between East and West support for Linke.  Don't people in the East realise that this party will not likely have any voice as long as the main parties refuse to allow them into any coalitions?  It's like throwing away your vote.  And still Linke got 1/4 of eastern votes.

<= Berlin wall

Is it safe to assume that most Linke supporters would normally have voted SPD?  If so, then Linke really spoiled the election for Schroeder.

(Btw, I really don't know enough to take sides in this election.  I'm just trying to analyse the results a bit.)

Will any parties be disqualified if there is a re-election?  In many countries you need to achieve a certain percentage in the first round to be included in a second round.

Also, can a party change leaders between first and second rounds?  For instance, can CDU replace Merkel before the second vote?

I keep wondering what might have happened in the US if their political system had been similar to Germany's?

- Bush jr would have lost to a Gore/Nader coalition in 2000.

- Bill Clinton would have been slaughtered by a Bush/Perot coalition in 1992.

[Balschoiw 0]

Quote[/b] ]I better stop know, otherwise I'm getting too angry...

Don´t wade in the swamps of the mob. Take a factual approach and then maybe you will be setup right, once you´re allowed to vote

[Bordoy 0]

We been doing abit about this in my A-level general studies lesson at college. Complicated situation.

[vektorboson 8]

It shows an enormous split between East and West support for Linke.  Don't people in the East realise that this party will not likely have any voice as long as the main parties refuse to allow them into any coalitions?  It's like throwing away your vote.  And still Linke got 1/4 of eastern votes.

The Linke is the former SED which was the leading party in the GDR. Therefore their people still know a lot about East Germany, and about their worries.

Many also remember that under the SED there was no unemployment, whereas now, there are unemployment rates up to 20% and beyond.

As they don't feel represented by any of the "western" parties, they vote for the Linke.

Quote[/b] ]

Is it safe to assume that most Linke supporters would normally have voted SPD?  If so, then Linke really spoiled the election for Schroeder.

Many SPD voters voted for Linke because they don't feel represented by the SPD. They feel betrayed by its change of policy.

But also, there still are many people in East Germany, especially in Berlin, who profitied from the SED and feel represented by them (take former STASI-people).

Quote[/b] ]

Will any parties be disqualified if there is a re-election?  In many countries you need to achieve a certain percentage in the first round to be included in a second round.

This is not a second round, the parliament has been elected and it will constitute according to the result (we have to wait for Dresden). Only if the Chancellor proposed by the President won't be elected by the parliament, there maybe new elections, and they are the same "type" of elections, as you've seen now.

Quote[/b] ]

Also, can a party change leaders between first and second rounds?  For instance, can CDU replace Merkel before the second vote?

A party can change its leader according to its "party law". If there is a full party meeting ("Parteitag"), they may change the party leader. But the party leader and the candidate for chancellor don't have to be the same person. The SPD's party leader is Muentefering, the Chancellor is Schroeder.

CDU could indeed replace Merkel, I guess she won't stay in charge much longer.

[EiZei 0]

It shows an enormous split between East and West support for Linke. Don't people in the East realise that this party will not likely have any voice as long as the main parties refuse to allow them into any coalitions? It's like throwing away your vote. And still Linke got 1/4 of eastern votes.

The Linke is the former SED which was the leading party in the GDR. Therefore their people still know a lot about East Germany, and about their worries.

Many also remember that under the SED there was no unemployment, whereas now, there are unemployment rates up to 20% and beyond.

No unemployment in E. Germany? Bullshit. Much lower maybe but not nonexistant.

I suggest you go read stasiland and especially the chapter where one former east german talks about her experiences when she lost her job while being harrased by Stasi.

"There is no unemployment in east germany! Only people who are looking for new jobs!"

BTW, is there any information on this linke party available in english? I cant seem to find anything.

[denoir 0]

Fischer: Merkel wird nicht Kanzlerin [Die Welt]

In short, Joschka Fischer of the Grüne says that "Merkel won't become the chancellor."

This leaves as I see only two possibilities for a CDU/Grüne coalition, both unlikely:

1) Fischer isn't speaking for his party in general.

2) CDU replaces Merkel with a different candidate for chancellor

I see very little option but re-election. Of course Merkel might decide that she wants to sacrifice herself for the good of the party and let Schröder lead a CDU/SPD grand coalition. Not likely though, I must admit.

[vektorboson 8]

No unemployment in E. Germany? Bullshit. Much lower maybe but not nonexistant.

I suggest you go read stasiland and especially the chapter where one former east german talks about her experiences when she lost her job while being harrased by Stasi.

"There is no unemployment in east germany! Only people who are looking for new jobs!"

BTW, is there any information on this linke party available in english? I cant seem to find anything.

Errm, don't tell me, tell those who vote for the Linke / SED.

You didn't read what I wrote about the Linke/SED in this thread, did you?

[EiZei 0]

No unemployment in E. Germany? Bullshit. Much lower maybe but not nonexistant.

I suggest you go read stasiland and especially the chapter where one former east german talks about her experiences when she lost her job while being harrased by Stasi.

"There is no unemployment in east germany! Only people who are looking for new jobs!"

BTW, is there any information on this linke party available in english? I cant seem to find anything.

Errm, don't tell me, tell those who vote for the Linke / SED.

You didn't read what I wrote about the Linke/SED in this thread, did you?

I admit. I did not.

Still, guess this is "the grass is greener on the other side" being proven again.

[der bastler 0]

http://www.heute.de/ZDFmediathek/inhalt/12/0,4070,2376652-5,00.html

Disgusting behaviour of Schröder. Perhaps he was drunk already? No, serious, regarding the constructed victory of Schröder, they forget one thing: Partei != Fraktion. The CDU/CSU is a Fraktionsgemeinschaft, an therefore they represent the biggest Fraktion. Poor move to stay in command...

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraktionsgemeinschaft

That will be Interesting Times until they have put together a government. Hm, interesting times... guess someone cursed...