Ukraine General

[maturin 12]

You misunderstood me. I ment to say that the US does not really care about the Ukrainians, and that it does not feal the need to stop this war. They'l fight to the last Ukrainian (as someone joked). And the US did have a role to play in this conflict. Everyone forgets that the rebelion was a reaction to the revolution in Kiev.

Again you get it exactly backwards because you don't even begin to understand US interests and policies. (It's not very hard, by the way. I just spent 5 months living in Washington DC and attended pretty much every think tank event on Ukraine and Russia policy. It's all out in the open. There's no Kremlin with siloviki. The State Department just hires old diplomats and academics to analyze the situation and make recommendations, so you ultimately have very important people stating baldly what the US wants and how to get it. All you have to do is listen, or raise your hand and ask a question.)

The US' interests and aims can be summed up in one sentence: Create a Ukraine that is an actual sovereign, independent state, with a functioning democratic political system, stable borders and a growing economy. Even the most bloodthirsty paranoid hawk knows that this achievement would be more harmful to Putin than dropping a nuke on the Kremlin. If you want to see Putin end up like Khadaffi, you make Ukraine a successful country.

And of course the war is destroying Ukraine, making it unlikely that the economy will ever recover, that the government will ever be functional or popular, etc. That's because it's Putin's war. There was absolutely zero chance of any armed conflict until Russian troops took over Crimea. Putin knew that Ukraine will never be successful or independent if it is destabilized, and that a wartorn state cannot join NATO or the EU.

So the war is disastrous for US interests and goals in the region. That's why Putin will never allow it to end. Of course the US wants to stop the war, but it also doesn't want to accept Kiev's loss of Crimea and Donbas. Putin would certainly like to see bloodshed cease too, but doesn't want the Kiev government to remain in power.

These aren't cartoon villains. Neither side wants war for its own sake. They just aren't willing to give up their policy imperative in exchange for peace. That's how conflict works.

[oxmox 73]

Again you get it exactly backwards because you don't even begin to understand US interests and policies. (It's not very hard, by the way. I just spent 5 months living in Washington DC and attended pretty much every think tank event on Ukraine and Russia policy. It's all out in the open. There's no Kremlin with siloviki. The State Department just hires old diplomats and academics to analyze the situation and make recommendations, so you ultimately have very important people stating baldly what the US wants and how to get it. All you have to do is listen, or raise your hand and ask a question.)

The US' interests and aims can be summed up in one sentence: Create a Ukraine that is an actual sovereign, independent state, with a functioning democratic political system, stable borders and a growing economy. Even the most bloodthirsty paranoid hawk knows that this achievement would be more harmful to Putin than dropping a nuke on the Kremlin. If you want to see Putin end up like Khadaffi, you make Ukraine a successful country.

And of course the war is destroying Ukraine, making it unlikely that the economy will ever recover, that the government will ever be functional or popular, etc. That's because it's Putin's war. There was absolutely zero chance of any armed conflict until Russian troops took over Crimea. Putin knew that Ukraine will never be successful or independent if it is destabilized, and that a wartorn state cannot join NATO or the EU.

So the war is disastrous for US interests and goals in the region. That's why Putin will never allow it to end. Of course the US wants to stop the war, but it also doesn't want to accept Kiev's loss of Crimea and Donbas. Putin would certainly like to see bloodshed cease too, but doesn't want the Kiev government to remain in power.

These aren't cartoon villains. Neither side wants war for its own sake. They just aren't willing to give up their policy imperative in exchange for peace. That's how conflict works.

Good thoughts.....

The US interests did collide with Russian ones and actually it was foreseen that such a conflict can happen already in the years before i.e. Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the US role, US influence in Georgia, Nato east expansion and warnings by Russia, US missile defence complex in Poland, the creation of the EEU (Eurasian Economic Union) where the Ukraine was one of the main candidate and probably the origin of the media talks about "new imperialism and a creation of former sovjet state type power", actually a competition to the European Union...

When it comes to geopolitics, the Ukraine plays a significant role for Russia and decides if the country will stay a power in Eurasia or drift off more towards the asian region. “....if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.†Alone the importance of the crimea, a strategical point to control the black sea and the only warm water harbour for Russia to get access to the Mediterranian Sea, Red Sea/Indian Ocean.

The competition about ressources is another point. There was a plan to lead pipelines through Syria to connect them to the european gas/oil network i.e. arab-gas pipeline, the proposed Quatar-Turkey gas pipeline. First there was the Nabucco gas pipeline project from the turkish boarder to Austria, with the aim to reduce european dependence on natural gas from Russia. This project was backed by the United States and Europe, the main connection was seen to be with the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline which runs through Azerbajan and Georgia.

The Nabucco gas pipeline was in rival with the South Stream project, a gas pipeline project by Russia to deliver gas to European countries. The project did start in 2012 and dropped in 2014 due to the conflict in the Ukraine. Wheras Russia did surprise the US and Europe with a new plan, to send Gas through Turkey. In general, a quarrel and huge competition exists about delivering gas ressources for european nations.

Btw, not long ago Saudi Arabia did admit to manipulate the Oil price to weaken Russia because of its role in Syria. The country is a trade partner with Russia and both having closer relations since the 1950s. Without the russian veto, we probably would have seen a military intervention with a regime change which opens the doors for new projects.

Wheras the US seeks to widen out their influence with missionary work, NATO expansion, to be a player aswell in the ressource rich regions of the caspian sea and to rival energy deliveries to Europe, it was actually almost clear that if the sphere of interests collidide with Russians own interests a conflict could be happen.

Edited February 9, 2015 by oxmox

[eddo36 16]

Ukraine Stifles Freedom of Speech, Peaceful Protest With New Law

http://globalvoicesonline.org/2014/01/17/ukraine-stifles-freedom-of-speech-peaceful-protest-with-new-law/

On the 57th day of Ukraine's massive pro-European, anti-government protests, the country's parliament passed a law that limits freedom of assembly, restricts the country's media and clamps down on freedom of expression.

[surpher 1]

Ukraine Stifles Freedom of Speech, Peaceful Protest With New Law

http://globalvoicesonline.org/2014/01/17/ukraine-stifles-freedom-of-speech-peaceful-protest-with-new-law/

FPDR You might want to check the date of that article.

[eddo36 16]

FPDR You might want to check the date of that article.

Only last year.

[aleksadragutin 9]

The US' interests and aims can be summed up in one sentence: Create a Ukraine that is an actual sovereign, independent state, with a functioning democratic political system, stable borders and a growing economy. Even the most bloodthirsty paranoid hawk knows that this achievement would be more harmful to Putin than dropping a nuke on the Kremlin. If you want to see Putin end up like Khadaffi, you make Ukraine a successful country.

Hahahahahahaha, excellent joke. Wait. Are you really serious?

---------- Post added at 13:17 ---------- Previous post was at 13:12 ----------

Good thoughts.....

The US interests did collide with Russian ones and actually it was foreseen that such a conflict can happen already in the years before i.e. Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the US role, US influence in Georgia, Nato east expansion and warnings by Russia, US missile defence complex in Poland, the creation of the EEU (Eurasian Economic Union) where the Ukraine was one of the main candidate and probably the origin of the media talks about "new imperialism and a creation of former sovjet state type power", actually a competition to the European Union...

When it comes to geopolitics, the Ukraine plays a significant role for Russia and decides if the country will stay a power in Eurasia or drift off more towards the asian region. “....if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.†Alone the importance of the crimea, a strategical point to control the black sea and the only warm water harbour for Russia to get access to the Mediterranian Sea, Red Sea/Indian Ocean.

The competition about ressources is another point. There was a plan to lead pipelines through Syria to connect them to the european gas/oil network i.e. arab-gas pipeline, the proposed Quatar-Turkey gas pipeline. First there was the Nabucco gas pipeline project from the turkish boarder to Austria, with the aim to reduce european dependence on natural gas from Russia. This project was backed by the United States and Europe, the main connection was seen to be with the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline which runs through Azerbajan and Georgia.

The Nabucco gas pipeline was in rival with the South Stream project, a gas pipeline project by Russia to deliver gas to European countries. The project did start in 2012 and dropped in 2014 due to the conflict in the Ukraine. Wheras Russia did surprise the US and Europe with a new plan, to send Gas through Turkey. In general, a quarrel and huge competition exists about delivering gas ressources for european nations.

Btw, not long ago Saudi Arabia did admit to manipulate the Oil price to weaken Russia because of its role in Syria. The country is a trade partner with Russia and both having closer relations since the 1950s. Without the russian veto, we probably would have seen a military intervention with a regime change which opens the doors for new projects.

Wheras the US seeks to widen out their influence with missionary work, NATO expansion, to be a player aswell in the ressource rich regions of the caspian sea and to rival energy deliveries to Europe, it was actually almost clear that if the sphere of interests collidide with Russians own interests a conflict could be happen.

You must be the only sensible guy here (with honest exceptions).

[mistyronin 1181]

[ProfTournesol 956]

This journalist has guts, that's sure.

[mistyronin 1181]

This journalist has guts, that's sure.

Well he has been moving and interviewing the combatants in both sides...

I wouldn't even dare, specially after seeing what the Pro-Russians did to his mate.

[oxmox 73]

Hromadske TV

Journalist from one of the biggest newspapers in France, "Le Monde" talks about his expiriences in the east Ukraine on Hromadske TV:

"Majority of Rebel Fighters in East Ukraine Are Locals"

at 8:10min+.....

Another problem he is talking about is the fact that almost no Journalists from the west Ukraine can report about the situation because of restrictions. He blames Russia for starting the war but describes the conflict as a "civil war " between people of the east and west Ukraine. He reports that the majority of the rebel fighters in the East Ukraine are locals. Russian volunteers do not hide and he did not see regular russian troops but confirms russian military equipment i.e. tanks.

Overall an interesting report.

Edited February 9, 2015 by oxmox

[ProfTournesol 956]

Quite interesting interview i must say. It cannot be sumed up by the video title itself ("majority of DNR soldiers are locals"), it's much more balanced, but he however says that the remaining people in the DNR area are supporting the DNR, which we can already guess from the Vice News videos. He also says that "real" Russian soldiers (not volunteers) are probably hiding from him.

[mistyronin 1181]

Yeah in fact, the title of the "majority of DNR soldiers are locals" doesn't make much sense compared to what he explains.

He basically says that Russia started everything, and that the Kremlin's media brainwashed and scared the population left in the Donbass basin.

He even stresses that no one seems to remember of the DNR shelling because it's not allowed to talk about that, that all the hate is directed to Ukraine.

And that Russian soldiers are indeed fighting inside Donbass.

Benoit Vitkine a good journalist.

Check his twitter and facebook.

Edited February 9, 2015 by MistyRonin

[oxmox 73]

Quite interesting interview i must say. It cannot be sumed up by the video title itself ("majority of DNR soldiers are locals"), it's much more balanced, but he however says that the remaining people in the DNR area are supporting the DNR, which we can already guess from the Vice News videos. He also says that "real" Russian soldiers (not volunteers) are probably hiding from him.

Thats true it cannot be summed up with the title, but its an important message about his expiriences in the east ukraine and between all the propganda from Russia and the Ukraine. Btw, its the official ukrainian Hromadske TV channel on youtube and they did select the title by themselves.

This underlines the impression from other reports i.e. US ambassador of Nato and others like we have seen in the last days.

It is actually aswell a big disadvantage that west ukrainian journalists do not report from this region. If "real" russian soldiers are hiding are only assumptions again.

In general the NATO, USA and the Ukraine delivers not really enough official proof for russian activities. We all in this forum have seen far more informations about russian vehicles, military equipment. But the general public has seen only Poroshenko showing 4-5 passports on TV and months ago a single satellite image with an alleged russian convoy. Thats insufficient.

Edited February 9, 2015 by oxmox

[mistyronin 1181]

( Medium ) How Volunteers Created A ‘Second State’ Inside Ukraine

What You Need to Know:

✓During the Maidan Revolution, volunteer organizations emerged to support the protesters and assist the wounded;

✓The Ukrainian government was unable to handle necessary tasks during the annexation of Crimea and Russian invasion: that’s where a massive volunteer movement filled in

✓Volunteer groups emerged to handle tasks usually shouldered by the state such as supplying soldiers and helping civilians amid the growing conflict in the east;

✓The emergence of volunteerism in Ukraine has led to the development of parallel state structures of civil society in the country at unprecedented levels in the country’s history;

[ProfTournesol 956]

If "real" russian soldiers are hiding are only assumptions again.

In general the NATO, USA and the Ukraine delivers not really enough official proof for russian activities. We all in this forum have seen far more informations about russian vehicles, military equipment. But the general public has seen only Poroshenko showing 4-5 passports on TV and months ago a single satellite image with an alleged russian convoy. Thats insufficient.

From the figures i quoted a few posts earlier, NATO itself reported that "up to 1000 Russian special forces and officers" are actually fighting in Donbass, helping the main workforce of DNR separatists. It's probably difficult to count the other Russian "volunteers" or "tourists" though.

[oxmox 73]

From the figures i quoted a few posts earlier, NATO itself reported that "up to 1000 Russian special forces and officers" are actually fighting in Donbass, helping the main workforce of DNR separatists. It's probably difficult to count the other Russian "volunteers" or "tourists" though.

Yeah, these are rather believeable figures by NATO but not the claims which were made before about thousands of troops. Otherwise journalists would have seen everywhere russian soldiers.

Edited February 9, 2015 by oxmox

[mistyronin 1181]

Yeah, these are rather believeable figures by NATO but not the claims which were made before about thousands of troops. Otherwise journalists would have seen everywhere russian soldiers.

A lot of journalist did reported big amounts of Russian military convoys going inside Eastern Ukraine.

Also the Ukrainian Forces have already captured more than a dozen Russian soldiers and the Kremlin recognized that they were "lost soldiers".

[aleksadragutin 9]

A lot of journalist did reported big amounts of Russian military convoys going inside Eastern Ukraine.

Also the Ukrainian Forces have already captured more than a dozen Russian soldiers and the Kremlin recognized that they were "lost soldiers".

Those soldiers that Kremlin recognized were captured in small teams (probably scouts) and near the border, as I seem to remember.

[oxmox 73]

A lot of journalist did reported big amounts of Russian military convoys going inside Eastern Ukraine.

Also the Ukrainian Forces have already captured more than a dozen Russian soldiers and the Kremlin recognized that they were "lost soldiers".

Yeah convoys, but no informations about the driver and crew. Just some dozen Russian soldiers, some passports and a single satellite image by the NATO is not really much official proof. The public knows that russia is involved and we here got access to even more informations, but the official informations and evidence is just sparse.

---------- Post added at 10:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:16 PM ----------

Why Putin Is Lying About Ukraine (BLOOMBERG - only parts of the article copied)

Russian President Vladimir Putin is now an official party in talks to bring about a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine. That marks a big shift from last September, when Moscow forced Ukraine to accept the pro-Russian rebels from Donetsk and Luhansk as negotiating partners. But Moscow still won't admit it has troops on the ground in the war zone and Kiev won't officially declare a state of war. That might appear to be a meaningless formality, but it's the last remaining red line in the escalating conflict, and it may be crossed if the United States decides to arm Ukraine.

Ukraine has long insisted it's fighting Russia and not local bands of rebels.

"How many evidences does the world still need to recognize an obvious fact -- there is a foreign military equipment, mercenaries, Russian military coaches and regular troops," Poroshenko's official site quotes him. During the speech, the Ukrainian leader brandished Russian passports and military IDs that he claimed belonged to soldiers who had fought in the east of the country.

Still, Poroshenko has refrained from declaring a state of war against Russia. In December, he promised to do that if the September cease-fire crumbled. "If there is an exit from the pace process and major military aggression is unleashed or continued, I can promise you that a state of war will be introduced immediately," he said.

Then, in late January, the rebels repudiated the cease-fire and started a major offensive -- and Poroshenko did not keep his promise.

Instead, he repeated his threat in an interview with Spain's El Pais, published on Feb. 5 -- this time making it more vague:

"Kiev will declare war if the conflict in the east escalates."

Russia's official position is still that it's not involved in the conflict. The Russian foreign ministry has demanded copies of the passports Poroshenko showed in Munich, saying they "could easily be bought."

Russia's remaining independent media outlets have provided evidence of servicemen dying in eastern Ukraine.

Today, the daily RBK published an investigation showing the soldiers who were sent to aid the rebels came from a limited number of crack military units that make up Russia's international peacekeeping force. No one in the West believes Russia isn't involved, and Putin's agreeing to be a party to peace talks is yet another confirmation of the obvious.

Why, then, are both sides playing coy? If they are at war, shouldn't they make it official?

As things stand, Poroshenko understands his ill-trained, badly armed, bloodied troops are not facing the full might of the Russian military.

The Ukrainian president doesn't mind portraying himself as the West's last line of defense against Putin if it wins him international aid, but he doesn't want to risk an all-out Russian attack.

Putin, however, is likely to be relieved if the U.S. decides to provide military aid to Ukraine: Then, he can finally tell Russians about the war, explaining that he's fighting the meddling U.S., not impoverished and culturally close Ukraine.

In fact, he is already trying out that pitch. In a meeting with students on Jan. 26, Putin described the Ukrainian armed forces as a "NATO foreign legion." As long as the West refuses to arm Ukraine, that reasoning will sound thin. But it will work much better once that barrier has fallen.

Putin's lies aren't directed at concealing the war from Russians: They know what's going on, because dead soldiers are impossible to conceal. Putin's lies are a message to the West, a signal that Russia isn't yet fully committed.

Western leaders may not admit it, but they want Putin to keep lying about the absence of Russian troops from the war. Once he stops doing that, a point of no return will be passed and the conflict will escalate until Russia, as the stronger side, wins a decisive military victory -- or until the West drops its reservations and sends in troops, too. Both these scenarios would be disastrous for Ukraine.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-09/why-putin-is-lying-about-ukraine?cmpid=yhoo

Yesterday, the former Chief of Staff of the Bundeswehr and former Chairman of NATO said the following on TV:

"We are in danger that the conflict will be not inside the Ukraine but about the Ukraine" -

"Putins shows yet restraint. When Russia really want it, the war could be over in 48 hours"

Edited February 9, 2015 by oxmox

[beastcat 14]

Video from Vuhlehirsk (They say its Uglegorsk), which was recently taken by the separatists. The announcer says that there were 8.000 people living there and now there are less than 100 left.


BuzzFeed - Rebels Advance In East Ukraine, Leaving Death And Destruction Behind

They talk about the same town but call it Vuhlehirsk.



Putins diplomatic solution arrived in Kramatorsk:

Edited February 10, 2015 by beastcat

[oxmox 73]

Ukrainian military begins offensive before crisis summit(Reuters - google translated)

Kiev / MOSCOW (Reuters) - One day before the planned crisis summit, the Ukrainian military began an offensive against the pro-Russian separatists in Mariupol.

The National Guard is near the strategically important port city in southeastern Ukraine on the rise, citing the Interfax news agency on Tuesday the National Security Council in Kiev.

Ukrainian soldiers were near Mariupol already broken through the lines of the enemy, the Security Council continued. The port city is located between the Russian border and the annexed by Russia in March Crimea.

The leadership in Moscow demonstrated with renewed maneuvers on the annexed Crimea in southern Russia and military strength. President Vladimir Putin reiterated that Russia would not bow to the pressure from the West in Ukraine crisis.

If the crisis summit fail, Russia will have to prepare further sanctions. US President Barack Obama is also examining the option of weapons supplies to Ukraine.

RUSSIA - SERIOUSLY INTERESTED TO RESOLVE THE CRISIS

In a note to Russian diplomats Putin said that Russia would operate despite the "current difficult international environment" an independent foreign policy. The fundamental interests of the Russian people are being persecuted "according to the global security and stability." Obama had threatened on Monday after meeting with Merkel, the international isolation of Russia could still increase, Putin should not change its course in the Ukraine crisis.

The spokesman of the Russian President's Office, Dmitry Peskov, criticized the contemplated by the West steps, there should be no approach at the talks in Minsk. Arms sales to the Ukrainian army or additional sanctions were aimed solely on at destabilizing the situation in Ukraine continues Peskov told the news agency RIA. "Russia is a country that is seriously interested in solving the crisis," he added.

REUTERS

Ukraine: draft dodgers face jail as Kiev struggles to find new fighters

Ruslan Kotsaba posted a video addressed to the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, last week in which he said he would rather go to prison for five years for draft-dodging than fight pro-Russia rebels in the country’s east. Now he faces 15 years in jail after being arrested for treason and obstructing the military.

His case is symptomatic of Kiev’s difficulties in mobilising a war-weary society to continue the fight against the rebels, who appear to have an unlimited supply of weapons and training from Russia. As the country nears bankruptcy and the reform programme demanded by the Maidan revolution last year is sidelined by the war effort, the drive to call up new recruits is floundering.

Ukrainian men aged 25-60 are eligible for conscription and 75,000 have been called up, of whom 60% will enter service, Poroshenko claimed last week.

A government decree regulates foreign travel for those subject to mobilisation. It means people could be arrested at border checkpoints, with those guilty of draft-dodging facing up to five years in prison – a law which provided the basis for Kotsaba’s video.

“Ukrainian citizens cannot stay in Russia for more than 30 days. After that they have to return to Ukraine where they are being caught and sent under the bullets again. That is why I think that we are going to change something in that law,†said Putin with carefully calibrated concern.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/10/ukraine-draft-dodgers-jail-kiev-struggle-new-fighters

Debaltseve surrounded, surprise strike hammers Ukrainian military headquarters at Kramatorsk

A sleepy suburb near Kramatorsk airfield was rocked by multiple explosions as separatist rockets hammered the city today, killing at least eight civilians and wounding 31, including five children.

Russian-backed fighters had launched a surprise attack on Ukraine’s military headquarters at Kramatorsk, some 80 kilometres from Ukrainian lines at Debaltseve, which appeared to have finally been cut off overnight. The surge in fighting casts a heavy shadow over high-level peace talks scheduled in Minsk for Feb. 11.

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/debaltseve-surrounded-surprise-strike-hammers-ukrainian-military-headquarters-at-kramatorsk-video-380197.html

Statement by OSCE Chief Monitor in Ukraine on situation in Kramatorsk

Once again, innocent civilians are bearing the brunt of a violent conflict characterized by increasing the death-toll and indiscriminate shelling. That Kramatorsk was a relatively peaceful city until now gives us reason for concern that the violence is expanding to new areas.

I call upon all sides to exercise maximum restraint, and for an immediate ceasefire. Dialogue, and not the use of weapons, is the only path towards a durable peace.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/139796

Edited February 10, 2015 by oxmox

[Tonci87 163]

What kind of weapons could they have used to shell the Army HQ that is supposed to be more than 50km away from the front? Smerch?

[oxmox 73]

What kind of weapons could they have used to shell the Army HQ that is supposed to be more than 50km away from the front? Smerch?

The article I did post from Kiev Post reports about claims from the pro-Kiev Governer Donetsk Oblast about the shell types: allegedly Smerch or Uragan.

Edited February 10, 2015 by oxmox

[Tonci87 163]

The article I did post from Kiev Post reports about claims from the pro-Kiev Governer Donetsk Oblast about the shell types: allegedly Smerch or Uragan. Maybe some western main media or the OSCE will report about it with more details soon.

Yeah, Smerch and Uragan are really the only things that make sense. Everything else doesn´t have the range.

[oxmox 73]

Huge crater shown on TV at Donetsk....does this belongs to the big explosions 2 days ago ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QX0bPTJwFSI

Edited February 10, 2015 by oxmox