oxmox

edit; double post

Well to be fair, the US Ambassador did clearly say that he would expect that the majority would vote for it or the results are not surprising...something like this. I did post about it in the Ukrainian thread longer ago, think it was a video, cant remember.

Not talking directly about the case of the annexion, but: There were always ambitions to be independant from the Ukraine. Already in the 90´s several referendum were hold but the Ukraine called such votes invalid and surpressed it. There is a long ongoing dispute between the west and east Ukraine and the seperatism movement is not new. http://articles.latimes.com/1994-05-21/news/mn-60465_1_black-sea http://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/06/world/crimea-parliament-votes-to-back-independence-from-ukraine.html But, its not right how Russia did treat a sovereign country, its understandable that they did react like it happenend and it was forseen, but its not ok. You will find aswell controversials by law experts, who do not share the view of an annexion but these are highly likely in the minority.

Russia is following a clear strategy in Syria (FinancialTimes, March 20)Few in Moscow believe that the Assad regime will last long without changes Vladimir Putin’s decision to pull Russian troops out of Syria hit the headlines around the world. But it should have been expected. So why now? The question of an exit strategy has been raised throughout the operation, and Mr Putin felt the time was right. The Syrian regime had had to be fortified because, Russia believed, the spread of radical Islam could be stopped only by strengthening statehood; the Syrian government is internationally recognised and Moscow had offered to help it. Russian aircraft bombed its opponents — Isis and other militant groups — but the mission took longer than planned because Syria’s army was less combat-ready than expected. Eventually, the situation was reversed, allowing Russia to reduce its presence and its responsibility for the future. What are the results? Can Mr Assad survive without Russia? .... read more, follow the link for full article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e5917508-ecf5-11e5-888e-2eadd5fbc4a4.html

As far I did read around 20 e-mails were not released since they were highly classified and content state secrets. But the WahsingtonTimes says allgedly 15% of already former released e-mails were marked classified. Anyway, there are still some very intersting e-mails and I did post about it already in the Syria and Libya Thread. The role of Israel and Iran in the Syrian conflict, possible hints to the factors which was a part of the decisions for France attacking Libya.

Hillary Clinton’s email archive made searchable by WikiLeaks (Washingtonpost, March 16) Wikileaks said in a statement that the searchable archives contains 30,322 emails and attachments from Mrs Clinton’s server dated between June 2010 and August 2014, including 7,570 emails sent by the current Democratic front-runner for president. The State Department began releasing the contents of Mrs Clintons ’s email server last May after it was revealed that she had used a personal, nongovernmental account for official business. The government published the last of the emails cleared for release in late February. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/16/hillary-clintons-email-archive-made-searchable-wik/ Wikileaks - Clinton Archive https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/ @Its amazing the State Department did release the content. Saw some reports already about individual e-mails and the content of them are quiete interesting i.e. Syria, Libya, youtube blocking (Benghazi), ...

Possible factors which influenced President Nicolas Sarkozy´s decision to commit France to the attack on Libya. Hillary Clinton E-mail Sent: Saturday, April 2, 2011 10:44 PM To: Subject: H: France's client & Q's gold. Sid Attachments: hrc memo France's client & Q's gold 040211.docx; hrc memo France's client & Q's gold 040211.docx CONFIDENTIAL April 2,.2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: France's client & Qaddafi's gold ... ... ... According to sensitive information available to this these individuals, Qaddafi's government holds 143 tons of gold, and a similar amount in silver. During late March, 2011 these stocks were moved to SABHA (south west in the direction of the Libyan border with Niger and Chad); taken from the vaults of the Libyan Central Bank in Tripoli. This gold was accumulated prior to the current rebellion and was intended to be used to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar. This plan was designed to provide the Francophone African Countries with an alternative to the French.franc (CFA). Source Comment: According to knowledgeable individuals this quantity of gold and silver is valued at more than $7 billion. French intelligence officers discovered this plan shortly after the current rebellion began, and this was one of the factors that influenced President Nicolas Sarkozy's decision to commit France to the attack on Libya. According to these individuals Sarkozy's plans are driven by the following issues: a. A desire to gain a greater share of Libya oil production, b. Increase French influence in North Africa, c. Improve his internal political situation in France, d. Provide the French military with an opportunity to reassert its position in the world e. Address the concern of his advisors over Qaddafi's long term plans to supplant France as the dominant power in Francophone Africa More details and infos about the source: https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/45muz5/declassified_now_deleted_clinton_emails_show/

Hillary Clinton Email Archive - Wikileaks (some parts of the e-mail) "The best way to help Israel deal with Iran's growing nuclear capability is to help the people of Syria overthrow the regime of Bashar Assad." Iran's nuclear program and Syria's civil war may seem unconnected, but they are. For Israeli leaders, the real threat from a nuclear-armed Iran is not the prospect of an insane Iranian leader launching an unprovoked Iranian nuclear attack on Israel that would lead to the annihilation of both countries. What Israeli military leaders really worry about -- but cannot talk about -- is losing their nuclear monopoly. An Iranian nuclear weapons capability would not only end that nuclear monopoly but could also prompt other adversaries, like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to go nuclear as well. The result would be a precarious nuclear balance in which Israel could not respond to provocations with conventional military strikes on Syria and Lebanon, as it can today. Israel's leadership understands well why defeating Assad is now in its interests. Speaking on CNN's Amanpour show last week, Defense Minister Ehud Barak argued that "the toppling down of Assad will be a major blow to the radical axis, major blow to Iran.... It's the only kind of outpost of the Iranian influence in the Arab world...and it will weaken dramatically both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza." Back to Syria. It is the strategic relationship between Iran and the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria that makes it possible for Iran to undermine Israel's security — not through a direct attack, which in the thirty years of hostility between Iran and Israel has never occurred, but through its proxies in Lebanon, like Hezbollah, that are sustained, armed and trained by Iran via Syria. The end of the Assad regime would end this dangerous alliance. The rebellion in Syria has now lasted more than a year. >Iran would be strategically isolated, unable to exert its influence in the Middle East. The resulting regime in Syria will see the United States as a friend, not an enemy. Washington would gain substantial recognition as fighting for the people in the Arab world, not the corrupt regimes. For Israel, the rationale for a bolt from the blue attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would be eased. And a new Syrian regime might well be open to early action on the frozen peace talks with Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon would be cut off from its Iranian sponsor since Syria would no longer be a transit point for Iranian training, assistance and missiles. All these strategic benefits and the prospect of saving thousands of civilians from murder at the hands of the Assad regime (10,000 have already been killed in this first year of civil war). https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/18328#efmADMAFf @What an expert was always saying on TV here over the years seems to be right: The conflict in Syria is about the Iran and to weaken its Shia-Axis.

Seems like the reforms stuck somehow... Ukraine bans officials from criticizing government (Reuters) Ukraine banned government officials on Tuesday from publicly criticizing the work of state institutions and their colleagues, after damaging disclosures last month that highlighted slow progress in fighting corruption. The move immediately drew criticism from some civil servants who saw it as a blow to freedom of speech at odds with the embattled government's Western-backed reform drive. "The government has decided to introduce standards of ethical conduct for civil servants to restore public faith in the work of the state bodies and officials," the decree said. The rule on "loyalty" is one of several outlined in a new ethics code that civil servants must follow or face disciplinary action, according to a decree posted on the government website. Government employees should "avoid any public criticisms of the work of state institutions and their officials," the code stipulates, alongside rules on the need for transparency and integrity. In a Facebook post about the new ethics code, Olena Minitch, a department head in the economy ministry, said the new rules appeared to have been "created hastily and adopted quickly" in the wake of Abromavicius's allegations about corrupt state practices. "The little document ... is in the best traditions of the Communist period, more precisely in the traditions of Stalin and Beria," Minitch said, referring to repressive Soviet leader Josef Stalin and his security chief, Lavrenty Beria. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-censorship-idUSKCN0W351A Ukraine will not join EU, NATO for another 20-25 years, Juncker says (dpa - March 3, 2016) Brussels (dpa) - It will take Ukraine at least another 20 years to join the European Union or NATO, a top EU official predicted Thursday, dashing hopes in the country for quick accessions to the bloc and the military alliance. The push for closer ties between Ukraine and the EU lies at the heart of the current crisis in the former Soviet country, which was triggered by protests in 2013 over a failed attempt to finalize an EU-Ukraine free trade deal. The agreement has since been signed and implemented, while the EU is paving the way for Ukrainian citizens to be able to visit the bloc without visas. Top officials in Ukraine have also repeatedly expressed the wish to join the EU. But European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said during a speech in The Hague on Thursday that "Ukraine will definitely not be able to become a member of the EU in the next 20-25 years, and not of NATO either." http://www.dpa-international.com/news/top_stories/ukraine-will-not-join-eu-natofor-another-20-25-years-juncker-says-a-48506292.html

Just some beats to forget cold wintertime

Interesting, never heard about such ammunition before.

European Parliament calls for Saudi arms embargo (Reuters, Feb. 25) The European Parliament called on the European Union to impose an arms embargo against Saudi Arabia on Thursday, saying Britain, France and other EU governments should no longer sell weapons to a country accused of targeting civilians in Yemen. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-saudi-arms-idUSKCN0VY1K1

Info map from ISW about russian airstrikes in February, 2016. Unfortunately no map about the US led air campaign. A week ago on TV (Feb. 14) the former Chief of Staff of the Bundeswehr and Chairman of the NATO, Harald Kujat, was talking about the military tactic. What is it all about and what is the aim of the strategy ? * stop of the suppline line from Turkey to IS forces * encirclement of huge parts of IS fighters and the destruction of them He said aswell the Russians will certainly reach this objective together with the Syrian Army. In addition he did mention that there are also risks: * the strategy is to push forward with a corridor, left and right of the sides of the corridor lies the territory of the kurdish fighters. And in the last days it was already seend that kurdish forces tried to connect the areas. The Turkey did start again to bomb the kurdish forces and did threaten to intervene with its military. -> this would be the meltdown (it was said a week ago on the first Channel/TV ARD Mediathek - video link if you understand german )

The US Is Now Bombing Islamic State Targets in Libya (ViceNews, Feb 19) US warplanes carried out air strikes early on Friday morning in the western Libyan city of Sabratha, where Islamic State (IS) militants allegedly operate, killing as many as 40 people. Since Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi was overthrown in 2011, the north African country has slipped deeper into chaos with two rival governments each backed by competing factions of former rebel brigades. As IS militants have expanded their reach in Libya, taking over the city of Sirte and attacking oil ports, so too have calls increased for a swift Western response to stop the group establishing a base outside its Iraq and Syria territory. https://news.vice.com/article/the-us-is-now-bombing-islamic-state-targets-in-libya

RAF Brimstone Missile Has Not Killed Any Isis Militants In Syria, And Only Seven Hit By UK Bombs (Huffingtonpost) The MoD explained in the response to the FOI: "Since December 2015 UK military air activity has contributed to the Coalition’s aim of disrupting and degrading Daesh military infrastructure, logistics and revenue streams inside Syria. "This includes targeting oil infrastructure and enabling equipment under Daesh control, helping to reduce their ability to profit from selling oil to fund their activities. "We have also targeted Daesh’s military equipment and infrastructure, including vehicles, defensive fighting positions firing on friendly forces, a tunnel complex, weapons stores and a command and control centre. "We estimate that 7 Daesh combatants have been killed or wounded as a result of RAF airstrikes in Syria between 2 December 2015 and 29 January 2016." http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/18/syria-bombing-brimstone-raf-isis-killed-_n_9261278.html Syria conflict: Warning from NATO to Turkey - No unconditional protection against Russia (Spiegel-google transl.) NATO would provide Ankara no aid or assistance in the event of Turkish aggression against Moscow, said Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn told SPIEGEL. NATO-Allies have the government in Ankara signaled that in the case of a provoked military conflict with Russia, Turkey can not count on the assistance of the Alliance. The mutual defense guarantee applies only "if a Member State is attacked in a unique way," said Asselborn. Spiegel Report

Turkey shells Kurdish fighters in Aleppo province as Bashar al-Assad's forces continue to advance on rebels (The Independent, Feb. 13) Artillery fire was reported from over the Turkish border at four locations on Saturday Russian planes staged at least 30 raids against rebels, Reuters reported, although it was unclear whether the bombing was deliberately in support of the Kurds. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed out on the US for supporting groups including the PYD and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) last week. “Are you on our side or the side of the terrorist PYD and PKK organisation?†he asked, claiming the West was creating a “sea of bloodâ€. Turkey has also said it will not permit Kurds to join peace talks, which are scheduled to re-start later this month after falling apart in January. But John Kirby, a spokesperson for the US State Department, said America does not recognise the PYD as terrorists and support would continue. Meanwhile, Assad’s forces made new gains on Saturday, capturing the village of Tamoura near Aleppo and tightening the noose around rebel-held parts of Syria’s second city. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkey-shells-kurdish-fighters-in-syria-aleppo-province-as-bashar-al-assads-forces-continue-to-a6872206.html Syria: Turkey and Saudi Arabia consider ground campaign following border strikes (The Guardian, Feb 14) The Turkish military has hit Kurdish and Syrian regime targets as Ankara considered a ground assault with Saudi troops, further complicating efforts to end the war just days after the US and Russia agreed on a "cessation of hostilities" in Syria within a week. State-run news agency Anatolia said the armed forces shelled Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union (PYD) around the town of Azaz, and also responded to regime fire on a Turkish military guard post in Turkey’s southern Hatay region. It said Tal Rifaat also came under attack in at least 20 Russian air strikes on Saturday. With the conflict directly drawing in more international players, Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, quoted in Turkish newspapers, said Riyadh and Ankara were coordinating plans to intervene in Syria, where Russia has been backing a successful regime offensive against rebels. Saudi Arabia and Turkey both staunchly support rebels seeking to oust Assad, and see his overthrow as essential for ending Syria’s five-year civil war that has cost more than 260,000 lives. US secretary of state John Kerry complained that the vast majority of Russia’s attacks in Syria were against “legitimate opposition groups†rather than Isis jihadists. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/14/turkey-and-saudi-arabia-consider-ground-campaign-in-syria-following-border-strikes

One of the reasons is maybe this: "THAAD is capable of intercepting medium and intermediate ballistic missiles within a 2,000-kilometer range before shooting them down in their terminal phase. Both China and Russia have claimed that THAAD's long-range radar could be used to spy on their military activities as part of Washington's efforts to maintain dominance in East Asia. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/02/180_193171.html Some sources indicate that the radar has a detection range of 600-900km in terminal mode and 1,800-2,000km in forward-based mode, but the US army manual only says that the range in forward-based mode is greater than 1,000km. According to analytical findings that two American missile defense experts recently provided to the Hankyoreh, if the THAAD radar were deployed on the Korean Peninsula, it could detect and track ICBMs launched from China with a maximum range of 3,000km. http://olympic.hani.com/arti/english_edition/e_international/694082.html @The shortest beeline from the South Korean boarder to the boarder of China, crossing North Korea, is around 300km only.

Syria: cessation of hostilities 'within a week' agreed at Munich talks (The Guardian) The cessation deal explicitly excludes Islamic State and al-Nusra front, against whom military action will continue. Some diplomats warned that the deal is merely designed to split the rebels. Peter Ford, Britain’s former ambassador in Syria said: “This agreement is going to set the cat among the pigeons among all the rebels, especially those who work hand in glove with al-Nusra ... So Russia is being quite clever. Their game is to try to split the so-called moderates away from al-Nusra, so that the Syrian army, which suffers from depleted manpower, can tackle al-Nusra.†http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/feb/12/syria-ceasefire-agreed-munich-peace-talks-live Unfortunately, the problem is not all countries did ratified the treaty: "The weapons are outlawed under a 2008 United Nations convention, but it hasn't been ratified by Russia, the United States, or Syria." For example Saudi Arabia did not sign it aswell, using cluster bombs in Yemen. But its not just about Cluster Bombs, overall civilians casualties seem to be a problem caused by air campaigns. We see this in Syria and in other conflicts, and when is it defined as a warcrime and when is it called "collateral damage", in both ways it is horrible for civilians and so is war.

New French Documentary aired on TV - 2016 Ukraine: Masks of Revolution Paul Moreira is a French journalist and documentary filmmaker. He is based in Paris, France. He has directed several investigative documentaries in conflict zones, including Iraq, Afghanistan, Burma, Israel, Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia. Paul Moreira has contributed to the emergence of investigative journalism on French television. The investigations of his team collected several prestigious French awards. Ukraine, masks of the revolution Without them, there would have been no Ukrainian revolution. In February 2014, paramilitary groups fought against the police in the streets of Kyev and ousted President Yanukovych. They settled a new government. According to western media, they were the revolution heroes. They fought on the right side. But they are actually extreme-right militias. And they are now heavily armed. The Right Sector, Azov or Svoboda created parallel irregular forces that easily go out of control. In Odessa, in May 2014, they were responsible for a mass killing without facing any charges. 45 people burnt to death. A massacre that didn’t get much attention. How come western democracies haven’t raised their voice in protest? Most likely because these Ukrainian nationalist militias actually played a significant role in a much larger scale war. The Ukrainian revolution was strongly supported by the US diplomacy. In the new cold war that opposes Russia to the USA, Ukraine is a decisive pawn. A tactical pawn to contain Putin’s ambitions. “Ukraine, masks of the revolution†by Paul Moreira sheds light on this blind corner. in french with english subtitles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_6zoNweKII with german subtitles http://www.zippcast.com/video/a8fefda6b29a77112ff

Actually, I donno if we will see an US led intervention with ground troops. This sounds complicated and russia is engaged aswell, would such ground troops really fight just ISIS and radicals or also the Syrian Army ? It rather looks like the plan from the beginning to topple Assad has begun to waver.

In the meanwhile Hollywood is producing in general too many episodes & remakes instead of new and creative movies.

Saudi Arabia did offer ground troops aswell, the US department did welcome it. http://www.ibtimes.com/saudi-arabia-ground-troops-syria-offer-welcomed-us-department-defense-secretary-ash-2295553 An intervention for ground troops wont be highly likely a walk in the park, dangerous city battles against expirienced war veterans in the remained ruins.

Russian view on Syrian Human Right Watch Organisations in Syria which is often used as a source in the media. i.e. SOHR - Syrian Observatory for Human Rights based in London/UK Briefing - Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

Israeli Minister: Islamic State 'enjoyed Turkish money for oil' (Reuters) Israel's defense minister said on Tuesday that Islamic State militants had been funded with 'Turkish money', an assertion that could hinder attempts to mend fences between the two countries after years of estrangement. "It's up to Turkey, the Turkish government, the Turkish leadership, to decide whether they want to be part of any kind of cooperation to fight terrorism. This is not the case so far," Moshe Yaalon told reporters in Athens. Turkey has denied permitting oil smuggling by the Islamist militant group, which holds swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq. The United States last month rejected Russian allegations that the Turkish government and President Tayyip Erdogan's family were in league with Islamic State to smuggle oil. Yaalon also said that Turkey had "permitted jihadists to move from Europe to Syria and Iraq and back, as part of Daesh's terrorist network, and I hope this will stop too," according to a Greek transcript provided by the defense ministry. However, U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said last month that IS was selling oil to middlemen who in turn were involved in smuggling the oil across the frontier to Turkey. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-israel-turkey-idUSKCN0V421N