The Islamic State has no future and is bound to fail. But more importantly, it is a lost opportunity for a genuine change in the countries of the Middle East.
Let's examine the situation:
The Islamic State declared "war" and expressed the desire to conquer the World. It called Muslims all over the world to fight the "non believers" in their country. This communication strategy is extremely stupid and short sighted as it completely ignores how our societies and governments function. Public opinion can be swayed to either explicitly or implicitly support a controversial government decision by the information it is being fed. Just like the massive communication and media coverage of the Pearl Harbor incident swayed public opinion to give in and support war against Japan, so too, media coverage of the horrors of the Vietnam war swayed public opinion to pressure the government to end war in Vietnam. The Islamic State's communication strategy and the actions it is carrying out across the world will inevitably fuel the success of extreme right wing parties and governments. The violence and racism against Muslims all around the world is already increasing steadily and it is only a matter of time, should the Islamic State persevere in its current strategy, before neo-fascist or neo-Nazi governments take power in key countries around the world.
Examples of the stupidity of their actions can be exemplified by the recent terrorist attacks against the journalists and cartoonists at Charlie Hebdo. The Islamic State openly supported the attacks and encouraged others to do the same. But let's look at the actual impact of the attacks. Charlie Hebdo was a dying journal. Before the attacks it had about 8000 subscribers and was printed at between 25.000 and 50.000 copies. It was in a very tight financial situation and was ignored by the majority of people, many actually criticizing it for being racist. Perhaps a few more years, and the journal would have died out, just like its predecessor, Hara-Kiri. After the attacks, the number of subscribers was multiplied by 25 and the journal printed following the attacks was sold by the millions, securing it's financial revenues. The attacks also severely increased racism and violence against Muslim communities and contributed to the ever increasing popularity of the "Front National" (the french extreme right party).
Another blatant example of the stupidity of the Islamic State is the videos published showing the decapitation of kidnapped tourists or the training of women and children to become warriors of the Islamic State. How many videos showing women and children training to kill and how many newspaper articles and reports about women and children committing terrorist attacks will it require before the entire population living in Islamic State controlled territory will not be seen as "victims" and potential "collateral damage" by the wider public but simply cold blooded terrorists that deserve to die?
An interesting question to ask is why are our countries relatively "passive" in the wake of an enemy that openly declares its wish to take over the world. Some would say that our own governments are busy with other more pressing issues such as restoring our broken economies and secure economic growth which is indispensable to the survival of our economic system. In my opinion, the Islamic State is allowed to exist because it serves the interests of many governments across the world.
First, it is a source of revenue for the weapon industry, selling weapons to those fighting against the Islamic State, and perhaps even indirectly selling weapons to the Islamic State.
Second, for some governments, it is the perfect way to get rid of troublesome minorities in their own countries. Turkey for instance, would probably wouldn't mind if the Kurds and the Islamic State slaughtered each other.
Third, the strategy of the Islamic State is not a major threat to the continued existence of our economic and political system. Osama Ben Laden and the September 11th attacks targeted the World Trade Center, which represented the heart of our financial and economic system. "Smart" terrorism that chooses highly sensitive targets that can shake the economic and financial system is extremely dangerous and our governments will go out of their way to ensure that it is eliminated. The Islamic State, on the other hand, encourages "petty" terrorism, choosing civilian targets which do absolutely zero effect to the stability of the economic and financial system. Growth in France will certainly not suffer from the death of a dozen cartoonists, but on the other hand, such attacks give governments more political leverage to progressively put in place a less democratic and more authoritarian political system.
Finally, the Islamic State solves an enduring problem of our societies: capitalism cannot secure the happiness of everyone. Some people in our society are unhappy, depressed, unemployed, poor, uneducated,... They usually are more of a "cost" than a benefit to our economic system because of their increased delinquency rates and the need to fund police and prisons to keep the delinquent elements locked away, and because of direct subsidies such as unemployment benefits or social security they receive since our modern societies would not accept that they were simply left to die.
Some of these people will be seduced by the Islamic States' rhetoric and rally it's cause, buying a ticket to fight by its side in Syria, Iraq or Libya. It's the first time in history that people willingly buy a ticket to go to a massive concentration and extermination camp. For our governments, rather than feeding a part of its population with anti-depressants, shelling out government money to keep them living in barely acceptable social conditions through social security and locking up the inevitable violent elements that can no longer bear their degraded situation, they can simply be left to fight and die in the Middle East for the mere cost of an airplane ticket, paid with their own money.
If by chance, they manage to return, they are branded like livestock as terrorists and can be legitimately monitored and spied on by the government without fear of breaching any kind of laws protection individuals. Should they plan any terrorist attack, they can be shot on sight as was already the case in the Netherlands and Belgium, governments capitalizing on the news of such failed attacks by pushing even more controversial policies heading towards the direction of totalitarian states.
But it goes even further. Should the Islamic State endure in its current strategy, in a couple of years, public opinion will be ripe to give it's governments total freedom to annihilate them entirely. Since women and children are being trained as soldiers fighting for the Islamic State, anyone living inside the territory controlled by the Islamic State can be considered an enemy. Moreover, the impact on the world economy of a total destruction of the territories controlled by the Islamic State is negligible if at all existent. It could even spur a much needed rebound in the currently low oil prices for the oil industry. Once public opinion is ripe to the idea and extreme right governments took root in key countries, nothing will prevent them from dropping a dozen nuclear weapons on the Islamic State or use more traditional massive bombing campaigns to eradicate them. Thus the Islamic State is the first massive concentration and extermination camp where people disenfranchised with our societies go to die.
To finish, I would say it is quite sad to see how the situation develops. European States, followed by the United States, have meddled in the internal affairs of the Middle East for nearly a millennium. First with the crusades to take back "Christian" holy land, then with colonization and finally through economic and political control over their governments' heads, supported by our governments so long as they did not go against our interests. Progressive revolutions were quashed such as the Iranian revolution in the 1950s, replaced by a ruthless dictatorship supported by our governments. The Middle East region deserves a true independence, and a government that works in the interest of its populations that have seen an endless alternation between war, poverty and violent dictatorships. A government that will defend their interests at the international level, strive to diversify and support its local economy without falling prey to multinational companies only willing to suck out natural resources at an advantageous price. Instead, they have fallen into chaos and obscurantism, blinded by hate and shortsightedness.
If history tells us anything, it's that the most successful revolutions of all time came about by highly educated and visionary personalities: Ghandi, Mandela, San Martin, Bolivar... Even Martin Luther King brought about more change in the United States by a few thousand words than could have been possible with a million guns. Knowledge is power and so far, the Islamic State has showed only signs of blatant ignorance and stupidity. It opened a window of opportunity for a genuine change in the Middle East, and slammed it shut right in its own face.
