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Ironsight

North Korea about to launch ICBM

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You'd have to start equipping them with food to prevent them from starving ;(

Well, hunger is usually a great motivator.

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I've often heard of the fanatacism of the average North Korean citizen compared to that of the Japanese in WWII - which kept us from directly invading Japan and atomizing a couple cities instead. They've pretty much been raised from birth to believe that the US soldiers eat babies, among other things.

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You'd have to start equipping them with food to prevent them from starving ;(

Well, hunger is usually a great motivator.

Hunger yes but dying from lack of food goes beyond hunger

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Guest Ti0n3r

Besides that, any attempt at insurgency against the North Korean military would be just as disastrous as insurgency against the US army in the US itself. Remember that NK has one of the worlds most powerfull armies, and without doubt the most fanatic one.

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Doesn't North Korea have any insurgents that the west could arm/create?

There are no known* terrorist organisations in North Korea and a lack of information from the outside world and an excess of propaganda prevents any chance of a popular uprising.

*That doesn't mean there aren't any, just that we don't know. Although it is unlikely.

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Besides that, any attempt at insurgency against the North Korean military would be just as disastrous as insurgency against the US army in the US itself. Remember that NK has one of the worlds most powerfull armies, and without doubt the most fanatic one.

Nobody is saying that they would have a realistic chance of actually winning, most attempts at rebellion get crushed before they even start. But it would force the army to spend a bit of resources on solving that problem. Fuel a rebellion just to fuck their shit up a bit, or something along those lines.

Hunger yes but dying from lack of food goes beyond hunger

Semantics. Point is, if hunger (or starvation) is enough to cause chaos in the rest of the world, it should work in North Korea as well.

I also don't really buy the stories about the civilians' alleged fanaticism. The whole thing smells like propaganda. Surely there must still be people that lived before the commies took over and haven't been brainwashed.

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Well the lack of food didn't cause any major resistance in North Korea in the past 40 years just like such lack didn't cause an active major resistance in Iraq and the reason is quite simple. Most people see the USA, Japan and South Korea to be responsible for their misery (and they're not completly wrong) and Kim is their great leader that tries to save them. By being loyal to him you get better access to food.

As you might know, it's a planned economy and that means all ressources are in the posession of the state thus the state can widely control where people get enough food and where not. So any rebellious region could simply be starved. Besides there's a complete lack of any real political power that opposes Kim Yong Il (because people that would dare such "disappear"). Point is; as long as Kim Yong Il controls the country and the army so tightly there is no room for a major insurgency. There is no doubt that many people would like things to change but they have nobody to turn to. The state and the secret police is very effective in cleaning out any opposing opinion.

You see insurgencies happen in places where the government has low control and there is room for other powers to form. In North Korea that is not given. The Government has total Control over the country. However. If the government was about to collapse there is a chance for rebellions but it's hard to destabilise a government that has brainwashed most of their people in fanatics.

Whatever. I think North Korea is relatively save with he launch of the missile. I don't think China and Russia will support major sanctions against them and would support North Korea incase of unilateral action by the US and it's allies with basic ressources (food, etc.) just like they already do.

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Remember that NK has one of the worlds most powerfull armies, and without doubt the most fanatic one.

Excuse my naievity, but I was always under the impression that N Korea had a starving army equiped with crappy 40 year old Soviet weapons?

Quote[/b] ]I also don't really buy the stories about the civilians' alleged fanaticism. The whole thing smells like propaganda. Surely there must still be people that lived before the commies took over and haven't been brainwashed.

This is starting to sound like 1984....

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Surely the most important nation involved with this is China which has ben recently trying to raise its profile in the region - didn't it have a row with Japan over WW2 recently.

The West would not be able to take any major pre-emptive action without China's approval and I think China is happy just keeping the NK genie in the bottle and hoping it goes away. Surely once Kim Jor-el (or is that Supermans dad) dies the country with melt down.

While he may be a madman I don't think he was an idiot. Every time he has raised the ante the US has given in to his demands. The time to show teeth has long since passed. Sadly the uS and the west will have to drop their pants and bend over for the NK once again.

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Surely once Kim Jor-el (or is that Supermans dad) dies the country with melt down.

I wouldnt be too sure of that, he probably has a successor in line. At anyrate, I dont think a N Korean ICBM is gona be that much of a threat, this is all just a glorified publicity stunt. Kim Jong-Il isnt stupid - he knows that if he fires one at the US, they'll fire several larger ones back wink_o.gif

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You see insurgencies happen in places where the government has low control and there is room for other powers to build up. In North Korea however that is not given. The Government has total Control over the country. However. If the government was about to collapse there is a chance for rebellions but it's hard to destabilise a government that has brainwashed most of their people in fanatics.

As things are, there is no way of telling whether or not the government has any real control, or if it just resorts to keeping the population in fear. If it actually has the resources and the means (the intelligence apparatus and the technology) to be Big Brother, and can prevent an insurgency, you are right. But it's unlikely that they are that effective. Insurgencies can happen everywhere however, but with varying degrees of success, depending on how effective the government is. The ones we see are the ones that have been successful enough to be noticed, but they are still likely to fail. Even a failed one would serve a purpose in this case.

Quote[/b] ]I also don't really buy the stories about the civilians' alleged fanaticism. The whole thing smells like propaganda. Surely there must still be people that lived before the commies took over and haven't been brainwashed.

This is starting to sound like 1984....

Yeah. Soon enough I'll be sitting in Room 101 with a rat cage on my head.

ch_123:

I agree. Kim Il-Kabong has a nice thing going. He's got his own little empire, and he is actually fully capable of keeping it as long as he doesn't attack anybody.

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Quote[/b] ]Weather improving for N. Korea missile test, sources say

Possible U.S. interception plan spelled out

From Barbara Starr

CNN

Friday, June 23, 2006; Posted: 2:51 p.m. EDT (18:51 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Weather conditions would be favorable for North Korea to test its long-range ballistic missile this weekend, several military sources said Friday.

The sources, who are not authorized to speak publicly, also said U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has signed an order that spells out how the United States would launch an interceptor missile if the North Korean missile appeared to be on a trajectory toward any U.S. territory or interests.

Clouds covered the missile's launch site for much of this week, possibly delaying any launch plans, but the U.S. military sources said clear weather and favorable upper atmospheric conditions were forecast for the weekend. (Watch how U.S. is on guard for a North Korean launch -- 2:02)

Fears have grown in recent weeks following reports of activity at a site in northeastern North Korea where U.S. officials say a Taepodong-2 missile -- believed capable of reaching parts of the United States -- is possibly being fueled.

One official said Friday that North Korea is continuing activities "indicating a launch," although he emphasized no new indicators have been seen in the past couple of days.

The United States, Japan and other countries are concerned about North Korea's reported preparations for a long-range missile test. The North Koreans fired a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan in 1998, but declared a moratorium on future tests in 1999.

In the past week, however, North Korean officials have said they no longer feel bound to that moratorium because they are not engaged in direct negotiations with the United States.

President Bush warned North Korea on Wednesday it would face further isolation if it violated agreements by test launching the missile. (Full story)

"The North Koreans have made agreements with us in the past, and we expect them to keep their agreements," Bush said during a news conference at the end of a European Union summit.

"It should make people nervous when non-transparent regimes, that have announced that they've got nuclear warheads, fire missiles," Bush said. "This is not the way you conduct business in the world. This is not the way that peaceful nations conduct their affairs."

If there is a launch by North Korea, the United States is facing three options, officials said: do nothing; fire an interceptor missile to destroy the North Korean missile; fire and miss. Watch how the U.S. could try to shoot down missile -- 1:18)

Word of any North Korean launch is expected to come quickly from Asia, and the Bush administration would plan to make a statement to the world within an hour of launch, one official said.

In the event of a launch, the U.S. military would have just a few minutes to make a recommendation to Bush about a course of action.

And U.S. military response would come only if it is determined through multiple technological means that the missile is on an attack trajectory.

The missile could be determined to be on a trajectory indicating a satellite launch, in which case, it would not be deemed a threat.

In an interview with CNN on Thursday, Vice President Dick Cheney said the missile has a third stage, which is an indication it is configured for a satellite trajectory, even though this test missile may only be carrying an instrumentation package. (Read Cheney's comments on North Korea)

The initial "boost" phase of the North Korean missile would last perhaps three to five minutes, according to a Pentagon official.

The U.S. system is designed to try to hit the attacking missile in the 20-minute 'mid-course' phase so any decision to strike would have to be made within minutes.

Under the order signed by Rumsfeld, all available information would be continuously shared so the president could make a decision whether to fire.

Officials say that in an extreme emergency there are other high-level officials -- whom they would not specify -- who could order a U.S. retaliatory strike, but realistically, they say, the decision would most likely be made by President Bush.

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Reading those reports i thought this missile could strike anywhere in US, but i saw a map on bbc website and i cant say the US has much to worry about. The end of Alska is about all that can be hit, and western europe is fine too. Obviously you have nuclear fallout which would go far, but still, not many people they would want to hit that they cant already with the T-1, so seems abit pointless unless it is just PR stunt.

From the same webpage there is this...

Quote[/b] ]But the US military says one of its warships successfully shot down a target missile over the Pacific on Thursday in a test of a sea-based missile defence system. This was the seventh successful sea-based test in eight attempts, the Pentagon said.

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The North doesn't gain a whole lot from launching the missiles. The may gain some technical knowledge of the missiles, but they should already possess most of that information based on estimates.

Politically, I don't believe they gain a whole lot. I don't think many people weigh the difference between saying you can do something, and having the actual capability to carry it out strongly (good example being the Iraq WMD situation). Most people I know believe the missile can strike a target somewhere in North America.

The highest end range estimate, six thousand kilometers, would enable the missile to reach the west coast of the US. To me, that's a fairly large threat. I didn't believe N. Korea even having nuclear weapons was a good idea. Having them, and now having the capability to launch them at a country they constantly claim they will destroy; doesn't sound good to me.

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Quote[/b] ]But the US military says one of its warships successfully shot down a target missile over the Pacific on Thursday in a test of a sea-based missile defence system. This was the seventh successful sea-based test in eight attempts, the Pentagon said.

Unfortunatly these missiles never tend to be as accurate when theyre really needed as theyre test fired. Anyone remember those SCUDs that flew through the PATRIOT guarded areas back in the Gulf?

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Quote[/b] ]But the US military says one of its warships successfully shot down a target missile over the Pacific on Thursday in a test of a sea-based missile defence system. This was the seventh successful sea-based test in eight attempts, the Pentagon said.

Unfortunatly these missiles never tend to be as accurate when theyre really needed as theyre test fired. Anyone remember those SCUDs that flew through the PATRIOT guarded areas back in the Gulf?

Or just plain rigged for that matter. Couple of notorious examples I can think of from top of my head are millenium games (the fleet that had gotten sunk was "refloated") and certain british civil defence exercise where some bizarre reason every nuclear warhead that landed near population centers failed to go off in order to make surviving nuclear war more feasible. crazy_o.gif

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Patriot was never designed as a ballistic missile defense platform. It was a PR exercise during the 1st Gulf war. Not one intercept was succesful.

Patriot is a SAM system, nothing more really.

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Pretty much true. Another perfectly crappy product sold by Raytheon to our careless goverment. You make more money in the long run if your system continues to fail but somehow stay alive thanks to some paid for political buddys.

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Does a pretty good job of shooting down RAF Torando's though. mad_o.gif

Im surprised no one has mentioned the Excercise in the pacific yet, the last time 3 carrier battle groups where together in the Pacific was during the Vietnam war.

Pretty big show of power and supposedly not linked to this lil event at all whistle.gif

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I'm surprised this hasn't been all over the news...this could heat up to a real-life flashpoint wow_o.gif

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Im surprised no one has mentioned the Excercise in the pacific yet, the last time 3 carrier battle groups where together in the Pacific was during the Vietnam war.

was that the one where the UK test fired a cruise missile from one of our subs, striking american soil (some island of hawaii i think it was) - was quite funny, as the brits seemed to like the idea of being able to shoot america biggrin_o.gif

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Im surprised no one has mentioned the Excercise in the pacific yet, the last time 3 carrier battle groups where together in the Pacific was during the Vietnam war.

was that the one where the UK test fired a cruise missile from one of our subs, striking american soil (some island of hawaii i think it was) - was quite funny, as the brits seemed to like the idea of being able to shoot america  biggrin_o.gif

Eh?

i was on about this.

The five-day "Valiant Shield" exercises brought together an armada of three aircraft carriers and 25 other ships, along with 22,000 troops and 280 warplanes, off this tiny island in the western Pacific.

But as the maneuvers began, tensions were rising in the region over the possible test-launch of a North Korean long-range missile — prompting two ships participating in the games to be assigned off the Korean coast to monitor the activity.

Though officials stressed the exercises were not held in response to the North Korean activity or directed at any one nation, they said the games were a demonstration of the United States' capabilities should a crisis arise.

"Valiant Shield was a demonstration of the U.S. Pacific Command's ability to quickly amass a force in a joint combat environment and project peace, power and presence in the region," Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula told The Associated Press.

Deptula said the situation in North Korea had not impacted the exercises, which ended as scheduled Friday evening off this U.S. territory about halfway between Hawaii and Japan.

but i like the sound of that!

biggrin_o.gifbiggrin_o.gif

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aaah, sorry i didnt know you meant a current excercise - this one was a fair while back

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I'm surprised this hasn't been all over the news...this could heat up to a real-life flashpoint wow_o.gif

As long as nothing is launched noone seems to care.

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