US Vs. China?

[Sandman214155 0]

After careful evaluation and close attention to current events, it brings me to a shocking realization that China the growing communist country has put its sights on Ameriaca. this is just a theroy, but it seems that the Chinese will eventually come to war with the US. It has also been brought to my attention that the US and China is at a point were carefull movements are taken, much like a chess game as you will. So far the latest move has been for the China to criple the weakened US economy. But the move before that was survalance carried by the US. This may seem like another cold war an our hands. right now i'm pressed for time but i'll be happy to go in more detail later. but i ask that no negitive post be posted before this action is careid out, it will only make the poster look inmature for not hearing the whole story. But if you wish to ask questions i will be sure to answer them in my post.

To the admins: i wish fo this topic to seprate from the US politics thread because i am sure that this is a whole differant section. like that of the US politics thread and War on Terror thread. if you see this as the same, be patient because it will become more and more seperate as the days move on.

[Bordoy 0]

Wouldn't think full-scale war would come out of it, as both countries would be scared of each other such as the US v USSR.

I can remember a thread about the Chinese will have the the largest Navy in the world by 2010.

[Guest Ti0n3r]

Neither one of these two countries want to make war on the other.

Why? Because they got enough of troubles right now.

Edit: Pretty much like the cold war.

[Nemesis6 0]

Well, a war between America and China is likely to start when/if they attack Taiwan.

[Guest Ti0n3r]

Well, a war between America and China is likely to start when/if they attack Taiwan.

I do agree that about this though.

But I doubt that the US would actually take action against China in event of an attack.

But it's possible.

[Shottie 0]

If china makes any kind of hostile move on anyone the U.N. will interecept. Just like any other country. What might happen is the U.S. and China could pull a Cold War tactic out of their sleaves and use other countries as their puppets I.E. Vietnam, Korea, Afghanastan.

[EiZei 0]

You might want to start hoarding computer hardware as invasion of Taiwan would mean the end of VIA, Transcend, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (really really big semiconductor maker), Silicon Integrated Systems, Shuttle, Realtek, Micro-Star International, ECS, D-Link, ASUS, Aopen, acer, abit and many others. Expect anything more complicated than a lightbulb get a hell lot more expensive/scarce.

[Colossus 2]

North Korea is maybe a bigger threat, they are just paranoid to the top. Anything can set them off.

I'm not that sure that China will risk a big scale war for such a small island as Taiwan.

Yes, it has been demanded by the Chinese goverment and they identify Taiwan as there own but the risk is just too big for an invasion.

Besides, China have there economical centers like Hong Kong and Shanghai, which they heavly depend on to hold there economy as it is now.

Starting a war will scare the companies out of there and I don't think they want that.

Money is money, even they can't deny that.

[shinRaiden 0]

The question is not so much "US vs China" but "What to do about China", and is exhaustive enough imho to warrant a seperate thread.

First you have the historical and cultural connections intertwining Chinese, Korean, Japanese, and to a lesser extent IndoChinese, Philipeno, Australian, and New Zealand interests dating back thousands of years. Whether directly ruling, influencing through diplomatic channels, or maintaining an 'advisory' role, China has exerted or attempted to exercise - the leading role in East Asian culture and politics. No indepth study of any country in that region is practical without a fundamental background in the Chinese influence.

Secondly, a study of the differing perspectives of East Asian thought and cultural behavior is also crucial to understanding why they do what they do, and to understand their point of view, whether you agree with it or not. This is essential to compare against western thought, culture, and behaviors.

Third is the relationships and contrasts between Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist communism and Chinese Imperial Communism, and the derivative functionality from the historical empires in their operation and attitudes.

Fourth is the relative isolationary and self-supremeacy attitudes acculturated throughout centuries. This is not entirely exclusive to China, however China has been able to maintain a more independent and aloof status due to political and economic reasons than it's neighbors.

Fifth is the present issue of trade, which likely is the trigger for the creation of this discussion.

Japan and Korea were much quicker to recover and industrialize following WWII, mainly due to the anti-captalistic and consequently anti-commerce and industry actions of the Communist Revolution. The reason that communist revolutions have remained successful culturally in East Asia is that for all intents and purposes it is merely a continuation of the old Imperial status quo.

China continued to languish in their impoverish state, while blatently engaging in provacative and ancillary advisory roles in the Koreas and in Indochina. Post-WWII appeasment policies however attempted to leverage the antagonistic Maoist regimes against what was percieved as the greater threat from the Soviet Union.

Following economic decline in Japan, and unrest in the Philipenes, economic markets looked to Taiwan and Beijing for more affordable and reliable suppliers. Under the Deng Xiaopeng regime, there was a new policy of allowing nationalistic 'capitalism' for the express purpose of glorifying the Chinese Revolution (= party pockets) and fighting the capitalists with their own money.

Under his successors, China has successfully become the primary manufactured goods supplier to the world, and by various means including human rights abuses, infrastructure neglect, and other economic advantages of nepotism, have managed to maintain a healthy multi-decade profit margin in global trade.

Along with that, politically reliable scientists and engineers have been sent throughout the world to learn the best secrets of the world and return them for the benefit of China. It's an open secret that the most blatent abuser of Intellectual Property is PRC organizations. Frequently, it is the very suppliers that foriegn firms contract that will then compete against them with their own products. The Chinese are also masters of the trade market catch 22, where by if you cry foul, they remind you of the size of the theoretical Chinese market and inform you that they have been considering your competitors. Cases in point include Microsoft vs. Linux and Chinese proprietary domain name services and IPv6, as well as other cases of cloned enterprise grade CISCO routing equipment.

Practically speaking though, in the nationalized environment, the PRC stands to gain much more economically and politically with the development of Chinese business, than in allowing foriegn development. Recent developments such widespread cellphone expansion and Internet connectivity have increased individual wealth, and especially recently petrochemical markets such as automobiles.

Global oil consumption statistics show China as having been at best a marginal to negligble oil consumer up until about a decade ago. It has very little oil resources, primarily in a couple nearly exausted minor fields that have been able to support the bulk of their deman for the past 50 years. With the exponential surge in automobile usage and subsequent oil consumption demand, China has not had the capacity to meet thier national demands.

Previous interests have included confrontation with the Philipenes over the oil-rich Spratley Islands, and other interests in South-East Asia, which as you may recall was also the cause of Japanese expansion in WWII.

While economic reports and analysis - originating primarily from Taiwanese sources - have suggested that the PRC is operating on a razon-thin margin at the moment, the PRC has quite successfully leveraged both their political position on the UN Security Council and their economic trade advantage to begin what could very well be considered making a run on the global oil market.

Case 1) : Dafur, Sudan.

The primarily Muslim Sudanese governement has been overtly and covertly supporting efforts to eradicate the primarily Christian population in the Dafur region. The genocide and carnage prompted immediate global outrage, except in China. China was in the process of negotiating the oil rights to oil-rich parts of the Sudan, and one condition the Sudanese government imposed on the deal was that China exercise their veto power in the Security Council to block any UN action to clean up Sudan. China did so, Dafur got brushed under the table, and China's pumping oil.

Case 2) : Weak US dollar

The primary cause of the currently weak US dollar is not this or that relating to the war or budgets etc, we've been through that before without similar effect on the dollar. The cause is that OPEC made the decision to change the primary currency for Oil sales from the US Dollar to the Euro. This gave the Euro a critical boost when it was struggling, as the international currency market rushed to liquidate their dollars to convert to Euro. The resulting change will have a permanent negative impact on the US Dollar, and will to some extent provide an artifical sustinance for the Euro rather than letting it adjust appropiately to reflect the shifting European economies. The degree to which China was involved in this process is unknown, but I strongly suspect they were merely 'pleasently suprised'.

Case 3) : Arms Deals

A recent Editorial in the Jerusalem Post criticized the self-centered and myopic approach taken by some recent Israeli arms deals with China, where IMI had contracted to sell certain specialized systems to the PRC, but under pressure from Washington (and no doubt the well-heeled Taipei lobby) was forced to default on the contract and pay an exhorbitant settlement to the PRC in the process. A previous editorial commented also on the poor politics of selling components to China which was then turning around to sell completed systems to countries militantly opposed to Israel's interests.

The situation here is that the Chinese know very well what they are doing, and know how to beat the rest of the world at their own game. By giving curt regard to the notion of human rights, they can maintain seductive cost and production levels. That in turn results in a profit margin that they can then turn around and use to pay anti-competitive prices on world markets. The Chinese have to pay the same prices for Oil that everyone else does, the difference is that they can afford to do so, and they can afford to run the bidding up so high that it forces the others out of the market.

Conversely, when the Soviet Union started eploiting their diamond and oil resources, they worked with the established markets for a maximum profitability and general stabilization. Of course the US allowed them to aquire rigged pipeline controllers than made a mess of their lovely Hero projects, but when the Chinese do it all in house with parts lifted right off the things made for the rest of the world, it becomes a moot point.

I guess what it boils down to is I have a real deep gut problem with folks that play games with the sole focus being on market share. For example, BIS can make a great product and sell loads of copies, buy houses, put bread on the table, and retire well regardless of marketshare plus or minus against EA. EA on the other hand plays the marketshare game, to the point that they would destroy the market so long as they maintain lead market share. This attitude has been the cause for destruction of a great many otherwise viable companies, and is being executed on a macro-scale by the PRC, with our own pockets. The chinese can and have done well enough alone without the rest of the world, but we've allowed ourselves to become addicted and enslaved to their philosophy and practices.

The possible outcomes though are atm still quite uncertain. For all their bluster, untill recently the PRC has been militarily unable to do anything about Taiwan due to the lack of amphib capacity. They've got that now. They've also got our fleet of ex-Kidd destroyers, for a cheap quarter billion dollars. With the proper saber rattling, they should be able to pull a Madrid on some future Taiwan election and reclaim the goose that laid the Golden Egg much in the way that they have with Hong Kong. Carefully incited and managed unrest in Southeast Asia should keep the oil interests there safely in Chinese hands, despite the speed bumps with the attempt to overbid the buyout of Unocol reserves in the region. That also will put the screws to Japan and it's suppliers, which serves as political payback for the Manchurian occupation. Allowing the DPRK to continue to spout nonsense and agitate the region would allow the PRC to take the upper hand to obtain the third prize of the industrial base in the South, to complement Taiwan and Hong Kong.

They'd have to be pretty stupid to not have advisors in Nicuagua and Nigeria maintaining chaos with liberal application of trade surpluses to keep them sufficently destabilized so that they can obtain exclusive oil contracts. If the rest of the world starves, it's not their problem, they think they can get along just fine without us. Just as long as they have noodles.

[Pathy 0]

Someones been reading too much Tom Clancy

[4 IN 1 0]

Someones been reading too much Tom Clancy  

TC is much more aware of NK and terrorist then China right now("we" might have "started" a "war" in TC books, but at that time the problem of NK and terrorist stuff isnt that big(remember, it is out just before 911) and china economy is yet too early to forsee)

[Major Fubar 0]

I think this discussion can be continued in the International Politics Thread...