Will this be our future?

[Guest]

We actually studied the peak oil concept recently in my international political economy course.  My professor was Keijo Korhonen, two time Finish Secretary of State, former Finish Ambassador to the U.N., professor emeritus and Dean of the University of Helsinki, noted editor of Finland's major newspaper and recognized author of over 15 books on international relations and political economy.

He thinks peak oil is no laughing matter.  If it has been reached, and there is every indicator to believe it has, industrialized economies could be in for a nasty surprise.  It would mean a return to Depression-era like conditions for the major industrialized socieities and increased warfare, particularly between the United States and China and possibly India, the three biggest importers of foreign oil in the world.

Read what some of the world's foremost economists and petro-geologists are saying about this problem.  We really are ignoring a grave danger that isn't just on our doorstep, it has already snuck in the back door and is rummaging around the house now.

And as for this, I still agree with you.  There certainly is a problem, I just don't imagine it will be as harsh as some predict.  That article quoted somewhere in the beggining of this thread estimated 4-5 billion dead.      

[Schoeler 0]

Yeah, that's true, what I've heard is basically another Great Depression with hundreds of millions dead, mostly in developing nations and from warfare between the superpowers.

[Schoeler 0]

yeh, this has been debunked a million times over...  any basic economist will tell you that, thanks to the glory of capatalism, as supply of oil goes down, demand for "substitute goods" like alternative energy will go up.  Econ 101...  

Ahhh another economist. Lets continue the Economics theory further. Oil is relatively price inelastic, so a large increase in price will only have a small decrease in demand. According to that, oil will only fall out of demand when the price rises significantly (could be up to 200%), UNLESS a close substitute is found or a way to increase supply is found. Basically, expect price of goods and services to rise until supply from other sources increase, or a close substitute becomes more popular. once that happens we will be back on course.

One thing needs to be kept in mind is Oil is what Plastic is made from, so we need oil to make all our thousands of tons of plastic.

Anyway, we will adjust. We survived for years without oil, ok we might go back to the dark ages, but, heh, finally a chance to live out Mad Max!

rufusmac, you do economics? What level (uni, a-level (collage), ect?)

You bring up a good point about the elasticity of oil and OPEC knows this.  Seeing as one determinant of elasticity is the number and closeness of substitutes and oil and petrol have very few - in the short term. BUT, i find it hard to believe that "peak oil" will (or already has  ) caused a sudden dropoff in oil so severe that renewable energy alternatives will be in too short supply to stem the "catastrophic" failures...

While I understand OPECs incentives to stem this phenomenon, it is unlikely (or impossible) that they will run themselves into the ground literally in order to maintain their oligopoly on energy.

BTW, just finishing undergrad econ now, hope to get a masters in public policy after i finish my military service.  

The problem is that demand for oil is increasing globally at an exponential rate as the cost of extracting oil continues to rise. This means that the per barrel benchmark price for oil will spike causing what is known as an "oil shock" in the short term. A ten cent spike in the price per barrel of oil for a month or more can lead to global recession becuase oil is inelastic in the short term for developed nations and inelastic period for the newly industrializing and developing nations.

[SpecOp9 0]

I'm not worried the least bit.

Mostly because this is retarded. No oil? Too bad, find a way around it.

[Oligo 1]

The article linked to in the first message has many valid points. It is maybe a little too pessimistic, but it's a gloomy subject.

This all reminds me of a little thought game. Consider how human population on the planet has developed through the ages. First there was a long long stretch of history, during which there was only a few of us. During a very short time we then multiplied to current levels. As a result, there are more people currently alive than ever before in history. Now consider this: What is the most probable time in history for YOU to be born on this Earth? The answer, obviously, is that the most probable time for an individual to be born is the time where there are most people alive. Thus you can make this little deduction: Since I am here now, it is more probable than not that this is the time of peak population in the existence of humankind and that extinction is coming soon. Remember that I am talking about probabilities, not certainties.

[Scud 0]

OMG We are all going to DIE!

but most of us from old age

p.s stop scaring the children

[Supah 0]

Yes it belongs to our army denoir , and the one in my backyard is for my personal use  

Btw Anyone though about as to what would happen to the airlin industry ? All these new plans will be rendered useless wont they? If we discover a altrnative the engines might need a srious ovrhaul maybe the whole dsign might need it. But Airbus and others are showing little foresight on this theyre busy making more bigger and better oil consuming beasts  

Denoir has a point acecombat I dont think a president like bush will sit through another OPEC induced oil crisis. Maybe then suddenly they will rediscover the evidence of SA's royal family being one of the great supporters of terror for years. When oil prices get to high it will become profitable to come and take if from you Bush has shown he has little scrupules about that A price hike would be overplaying their hand by OPEC and might even be corrected militarily by bush and his cronies

Better startstocking up on solar panels and boilers

(Why do i have the strange urge to type OFPEC instead of OPEC? )

[aj_addons 0]

if i remeber correstly there was plans to invade your place during the last oil crisis ace mate if i was you i would start arming your self to the teeth

[Schoeler 0]

It's not the Americans he has to worry about, we have Iraq, its the Chinese and India.

[Nuclear W 0]

This is my favourite bit:

Quote[/b] ]What's going to happen when recently industrialized China decides it needs what little cheap oil is left as bad as the United States does?

World War III

Sooo, this guy is predicting the end of civilisation as we know it within the next 5 years

Quote[/b] ]War with Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, China, France Russia and Korea? Won't that require a reinstitution of the draft?

George Bush recently approved a massive increase for the Selective Service's 2005 budget. The Selective Service is currently undergoing a massive overhaul and has been told it needs to be ready to report to the president in June, 2005. This means you can expect a reinstitution of the military draft some time thereafter.

A process the military calls "Stop Loss", a.k.a. "Draft Creep", has been underway for some time now.

Essentially, every young man has been earmarked as a solider for future oil wars.

Thank God I'm a woman. At least I don't have to worry about being drafted.

Not so fast. If you are a female and work in the medical field, you may be subject to the Health Care Personnel Delivery System, better known as the medical draft.

According to Lewis Brodsky, the acting director of the Selective Service System, "We're going to elevate that kind of draft to be a priority."

What type of weapons are being developed for these oil wars?

In "Rebuilding America's Defenses", Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz explains that the U.S. will develop "advanced forms of biological warfare that can target specific genotypes."

In other words, weapons that target certain ethnic groups.

Don't feel left out if you happen to be white, North Korea is developing an "ethnic bomb" that targets whites only.

China is developing truly horrific post-nuclear weapons employing "molecular nano-technology."

Is there any chance we will resolve this energy crisis without an all out world war?

As things stand now, absolutely not.

The U.S. Army War College has written that during the 21st century:

There will be no peace. At any given moment for the rest of our lifetimes, there will be multiple conflicts in mutating forms around the globe. Violent conflict will dominate the headlines, but cultural and economic struggles will be steadier and ultimately more decisive. The de facto role of the US armed forces will be to keep the world safe for our economy and open to our cultural assault. To those ends, we will do a fair amount of killing.

Man, an "ethnic bomb"? That would suck.

Well, whos gonna come and stockpile food, gold and weapons and hide in a cave waiting for judgement day?

Not me

[drewb99 0]

Poppycock, I could go out and buy a hydrogen engine right now at retail if I really wanted to.

[The Frenchman 0]

BAH! I am not afraid! JONNY THE OFP MESSIAH WILL SAVE US ALL! He will find a way to save us!

[Impavido 0]

This is a repeat of a several thousand year old trend in humanity.  Its nothing new.

The christian calendar reaches 1000...OH MY GOD!!!! ITS OVER...ITS ALL OVER!!!!  They all thought the world should have ended but it didnt.  So they thought that god was angry since he didnt take them to heaven...apparently something wasnt right.  So they get the bright idea of the crusades to "liberate the holy land from dirty un-christian hands"...yea, we're still feeling the after effects of that mass-stupidity a millenium later.

Did we learn our lesson? NO, the western calendar starts ticking to 2000...OMG...WERE DOOMED!! The computers are going to go Terminator on us!  They wont know what year it is! Low and behold....we're still here. God forbid your Credit card statement read 1900 instead of 2000, or a cashier at a food market not be able to use a calculator.  Y2k was the same stupidity that led to the Crusades, only not so violent thank god.

It even happened before Y2K. There were some who thought it would happen early on 9-9-99 because 9999 is some type of computer language for "end program".   *sigh*

I dont know his name, but the fool that was convinced he knew when the world was gonna end.  And of cource there were some who believed him. The day he predicted came and went and the idiots still followed him.  Such was the birth of the Jehova's Witnesses and their un-ending knocking on my front door.  GO AWAY!!!

Now this nincompoop wants me to believe only 10% of the world will survive?  Oh please... I PRAY for the day the US and the rest of the west no longer buys middle-eastern oil. I pray for it every day of my life.  If the world economy has to take a blow during an adjustment period when we implement new methods and energies, so be it. I say "Bring it on!".   Americans and many in the world of our generation are too apathetic and privelidged.  Consider a 2nd depression a character building experience, and a fair price for ending the business that lines the pockets of dictators and terrorists.  And if the middle east explodes like powder-keg europe did in WW1 because of the collapsing oil business, let them fight it out.  Not because I want to see lots of innocent civilians cought up in it, but because sometimes you cant stop a fight like that.  The best way for it to end is let the parties fight it out and learn the hard way.

Oh and god forbid my fellow Americans do without gas-guzzling machines, lawn mowers, motor-cycles, and everything else we dont need.  No wonder half of the world hates us!

On a side note, If I we are all wrong and the schmuck who wrote that webpage is right....I hope BIS releases OFP2 before we all die, I want to get at least a good 6 months of gaming out of OFP2 before I die of oil-starvation!