red oct 2 Posted February 18, 2004 somebody at another forum i view posted this. after viewing the page, i don't seem to feel so good  http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Home.html opinions? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grey Fox 0 Posted February 18, 2004 But I'm too young and immature to face a disaster like that! Well, there goes my long term planning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Acecombat 0 Posted February 18, 2004 What hogwash I wonder what sort a moron is that guy who wrote that up , yep all of the world will die in 5 years time and only 500 mil will remain Oil Peak will occur at 2020 or close to it thats what i get from different sources (US and others) so we have got a good 16 years ahead of us to solve this problem with various alternatives and shift our basic needs to sustain life like food/water and stuff to these. Sure it could be grim but nothing like an apocalypse that guys painting. Can anyone esplain to me what that Hubbert thingy is which says our Nuclear powerplants wont be able to work after 25 years? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Blink Dog 0 Posted February 18, 2004 This is why we all need to be well armed, thin the population now to 500 million then we can drive gas guzzling cars like our parents did. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Acecombat 0 Posted February 18, 2004 The best quote from that site was the arab one: "My dad rode a camel , i drove a car , my son flies a jet and his son rode a camel" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IceFire 0 Posted February 18, 2004 That is total BS, I don't believe it for an instant. Sure we may all run out of oil. Â I don't doubt that. Â But I see how that would even matter to me. I don't eat my cereal with oil, I don't drink oil with my dinner. Â I don't swim in oil. Â This planet could go forever without anymore oil and I don't see why anyone should care. Like we are all going to starve without oil. Yeah right. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sigma-6 29 Posted February 18, 2004 Even if that were true (which it's not). . . and I don't like to crush a good conspiracy theory discussion, they're so much fun to watch  but. . . we're about 5-10 years from an end to drilled oil and landfills anyway. It's called thermal depolymerization. You use existing refineries, you add a few recently invented (and extremely cheap) components to them, feed in manure, municipal waste, excrement, medical waste, recyclable plastics, old tires,. . . human corpses. . . well. . . just about anything with carbon in it, and *voila* unlimited free (as free as the refinery owner wants it to be) crude oil, naphtha, kerosene, etc. . . The process is between 80% and 95% efficient, and the inefficiency is the energy required to run it (after you start it, you run it on its own products). . . its byproducts are water, fuel oils, and industrial grade chemicals (like 100% pure carbon black). Somebody ought to point that out to that guy. jeez. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted February 18, 2004 yeh, this has been debunked a million times over... any basic economist will tell you that, thanks to the glory of capatalism, as supply of oil goes down, demand for "substitute goods" like alternative energy will go up. Econ 101... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
toadlife 3 Posted February 18, 2004 Yep. Total BS. Us humans will adapt - that's what we do. I read about that thermal depolymerization thing in some magazine - I think popular science. Truly awesome stuff. We will allways figure out a way. BTW people were predicting massive starvation back in the 1970's saying that the world would never be able to support 5 billion people. We have 6 billion now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
toadeater 0 Posted February 18, 2004 Nothing to worry about. Just means that crooks like George Bush and Osama Bin Laden will be out of business. There are a dozen alternatives to oil, we've known about some of them for over a hundred years, the only reason we don't use them is politics and the cost now that we're addicted to gasoline to switch over. People seem to think gasoline is some magic substance, it's just that the infrastructure is there and makes it cheaper to distribute at this point. But when you look at things like Iraq, you have to wonder, is it really cheaper in the long run? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scud 0 Posted February 18, 2004 lol, the amount of times I have seen "The End Of The World As We Know It" in my life time. Spose someday someone will get it wright but I don't think oil will be the cause. I think the availabilty of fresh water in years to come will be the decider. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
John C Flett 0 Posted February 18, 2004 Quote[/b] ]I don't eat my cereal with oil, I don't drink oil with my dinner. I don't swim in oil. This planet could go forever without anymore oil and I don't see why anyone should care. What about the oil that the delivery trucks use to take the food to the supermarket. And do you take a car or bus to that supermarket. How much shopping would you get if you had to walk there and carry it home youself? Assuming no alternatives are found ( which they probably will be but also probably not straight away ) there will be a drop in the availability of anything not produced locally accompanied by a rise in price. You're not going to starve but you'll see a lot less variety in the products available to buy. Additionally expect to find any kind of travel by car or air to become far more expensive. Again this won't effect everybody but it will have profound implications for tourist resorts. Like all changes though we will adapt though it will be easier for some than for others. We're not going to die out but many things we take for granted now will become much more valuable and rarer in the future. And probably a lot less than the 16 years that Acecombat suggests. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cozza 24 Posted February 18, 2004 most oil guzzling things are petrol. If everyone used solar power cars we would be swimming in oil. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EiZei 0 Posted February 18, 2004 I suggest watching every cheesy grim 80s movie set in future (in 1995-2010 that is), makes you feel a lot easier. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gollum1 0 Posted February 18, 2004 I suggest watching every cheesy grim 80s movie set in future (in 1995-2010 that is), makes you feel a lot easier. No EiZei, this time they know for SURE, cross their hearts. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted February 18, 2004 Yes this will be our future. So stock up on oil now! Gawd....anymore stupid end-of-the-world threads? How about "GIANT HAMSTERS ARE GOING TO INVADE EARTH IN 2007!!!!!"? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pathy 0 Posted February 18, 2004 yeh, this has been debunked a million times over... Â any basic economist will tell you that, thanks to the glory of capatalism, as supply of oil goes down, demand for "substitute goods" like alternative energy will go up. Â Econ 101... Â Ahhh another economist. Lets continue the Economics theory further. Oil is relatively price inelastic, so a large increase in price will only have a small decrease in demand. According to that, oil will only fall out of demand when the price rises significantly (could be up to 200%), UNLESS a close substitute is found or a way to increase supply is found. Basically, expect price of goods and services to rise until supply from other sources increase, or a close substitute becomes more popular. once that happens we will be back on course. One thing needs to be kept in mind is Oil is what Plastic is made from, so we need oil to make all our thousands of tons of plastic. Anyway, we will adjust. We survived for years without oil, ok we might go back to the dark ages, but, heh, finally a chance to live out Mad Max! rufusmac, you do economics? What level (uni, a-level (collage), ect?) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Schoeler 0 Posted February 18, 2004 We actually studied the peak oil concept recently in my international political economy course. My professor was Keijo Korhonen, two time Finish Secretary of State, former Finish Ambassador to the U.N., professor emeritus and Dean of the University of Helsinki, noted editor of Finland's major newspaper and recognized author of over 15 books on international relations and political economy. He thinks peak oil is no laughing matter. If it has been reached, and there is every indicator to believe it has, industrialized economies could be in for a nasty surprise. It would mean a return to Depression-era like conditions for the major industrialized socieities and increased warfare, particularly between the United States and China and possibly India, the three biggest importers of foreign oil in the world. Read what some of the world's foremost economists and petro-geologists are saying about this problem. We really are ignoring a grave danger that isn't just on our doorstep, it has already snuck in the back door and is rummaging around the house now. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pathy 0 Posted February 18, 2004 Mad Max! Mad Max! Mad Max! Woo we are all going to join mutant biker gangs and fight over the oil! Fantastic! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Acecombat 0 Posted February 19, 2004 Mad Max! Mad Max! Mad Max! Woo we are all going to join mutant biker gangs and fight over the oil! Fantastic! Please leave your shoes outside bfore coming here though Oh well atleast living in SA has some advantage ... i say we stop the supply now and force the countries to think up a new alternative Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
denoir 0 Posted February 19, 2004 Oh well atleast living in SA has some advantage ... i say we stop the supply now and force the countries to think up a new alternative  Can you say "What is that Abrams tank doing in my back yard?" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Acecombat 0 Posted February 19, 2004 Oh well atleast living in SA has some advantage ... i say we stop the supply now and force the countries to think up a new alternative  Can you say "What is that Abrams tank doing in my back yard?"  Yes it belongs to our army denoir , and the one in my backyard is for my personal use Btw Anyone though about as to what would happen to the airlin industry ? All these new plans will be rendered useless wont they? If we discover a altrnative the engines might need a srious ovrhaul maybe the whole dsign might need it. But Airbus and others are showing little foresight on this theyre busy making more bigger and better oil consuming beasts Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IceFire 0 Posted February 19, 2004 Some people here mentioned Mad Max. Now I don't mean to go off topic, but I have heard of "Mad Max" forever but I never really knew what it is. I just have a vague idea of wild children on motorcycles or something. That's all I have heard. I have been curious as to what it is. Can someone please explain this to me? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted February 19, 2004 Some people here mentioned Mad Max. Â Now I don't mean to go off topic, but I have heard of "Mad Max" forever but I never really knew what it is. Â I just have a vague idea of wild children on motorcycles or something. Â That's all I have heard. Â I have been curious as to what it is. Can someone please explain this to me? IMDB Listing for Mad Max (aka The Road Warrior) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted February 19, 2004 yeh, this has been debunked a million times over...  any basic economist will tell you that, thanks to the glory of capatalism, as supply of oil goes down, demand for "substitute goods" like alternative energy will go up.  Econ 101...  Ahhh another economist. Lets continue the Economics theory further. Oil is relatively price inelastic, so a large increase in price will only have a small decrease in demand. According to that, oil will only fall out of demand when the price rises significantly (could be up to 200%), UNLESS a close substitute is found or a way to increase supply is found. Basically, expect price of goods and services to rise until supply from other sources increase, or a close substitute becomes more popular. once that happens we will be back on course. One thing needs to be kept in mind is Oil is what Plastic is made from, so we need oil to make all our thousands of tons of plastic. Anyway, we will adjust. We survived for years without oil, ok we might go back to the dark ages, but, heh, finally a chance to live out Mad Max! rufusmac, you do economics? What level (uni, a-level (collage), ect?) You bring up a good point about the elasticity of oil and OPEC knows this.  Seeing as one determinant of elasticity is the number and closeness of substitutes and oil and petrol have very few - in the short term. BUT, i find it hard to believe that "peak oil" will (or already has  ) caused a sudden dropoff in oil so severe that renewable energy alternatives will be in too short supply to stem the "catastrophic" failures... While I understand OPECs incentives to stem this phenomenon, it is unlikely (or impossible) that they will run themselves into the ground literally in order to maintain their oligopoly on energy. BTW, just finishing undergrad econ now, hope to get a masters in public policy after i finish my military service.  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
