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ralphwiggum

The Iraq thread 3

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Quote[/b] ]Good so polls are absolutely worthless.

At this stage I'd say it would be very hard to conduct some kind of poll and get a result that speaks for most Iraqis. Its not like a western country where you can make polls by phone, mail and email and still reach segments of nearly the entire population that way.

Quote[/b] ]So then, what do you base your assumptions on otherwise? A little birdie told you?

The only assumption I am making is that a large portion of the Iraqis do not want the Americans in Iraq anymore. This is based on the current situation in the country. If it was just a few terrorists stirring up trouble, they would have been dealt with. They would never be able to survive without the support of regular people.

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Quote[/b] ]Recent polls show the vast majority of Iraqis are better off now than when Saddam was burying them and that they want the coalition troops to deal with the Iraqi terrorist violence.

First of all I know of that poll and it was two months ago,so not exactly recent since it was made before Al-Sadr uprising.

Second,an AMERICAN company made it,working for the COALLITION,now that kills all the credibility doesn`t it?

And last I am "sure" the company travelled all the way from the South of Iraq to the north,since we know how split the Iraqi population is,and I am "sure" they went in Fallujah,Mosul,Tikrit,Samara and Ramadi too.

If you want polls,turn the TV on and all you`ll see is Iraqis fed up with this occupation,fed up that they have to fear for their life,fed up with the fact that they are taken in the night from their homes with no reason,fed up with all the promises made but not met by the US.

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Quote[/b] ]that's just absurd. what did that man do?

He made himself a target. And paid for it.

did he ATTACK someone?

Quote[/b] ]Of course they would. They will probably do anything to achieve victory, like most people backed into a corner, fighting for their lifes, would.

sure, and I see no problem of moral integrity going down the sewer. kill civilians if they don't stand on our side. wait, wasn't that what people were complaining about? lack of moral stance?

Quote[/b] ]His point is that if women and children chose NOT to stay away from battle, but to actively fight you, then you are probably on the wrong side.

and my point is that for a soldier thinking whether the order is philosophically correct or not is not something that you want to debate when your life is on the line.

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Quote[/b] ]So then, what do you base your assumptions on otherwise? A little birdie told you?

The only assumption I am making is that a large portion of the Iraqis do not want the Americans in Iraq anymore. This is based on the current situation in the country. If it was just a few terrorists stirring up trouble, they would have been dealt with. They would never be able to survive without the support of regular people.

Would you say that most of these people are Sunnis?

Are you also calling for the US to leave immediately and abandon the Iraqis to the charms and persuasions of themselves?

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Statistics eh?

Well polls only work if n (population of the sample) is representative of N (population). Which is generally assumed to be true when n>=0.05N. But I doubt anyone is able to have a clear overview of who might support what opinion. Most districts arent even accessible to press because of security reasons.

What is an indicator of civillian satisfaction? If their attitude depends on a functioning infrastructure then dont ask them, just examine the infrastructure.

And it is fact, that is what journalists can confirm, that iraq is a victim of constant powercuts. Water and fuel, well I am not too sure about that. Food-supplies are good. The high level of crimes and shootings on the roads makes living very hard, each decision to go here or there must be weighed up against the associated risk

and lets not forget the pictures of CNN are the from the areas the journalists feel safe to go, and that is not much since the hostage-taking started)

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"Of 2,652 Iraqis surveyed, the majority said life has got better since the war"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1....tm

How were these 2,652 people chosen?

Where in Iraq do they live?

Who interviewed them?

How was the interview conducted?

You could easily interview twice as many people, without much effort, and get the opposite result. It just depends on there where, how and who.

Quote[/b] ]A wide-ranging poll commissioned by the BBC in association with other international broadcasters has given a fresh insight into the views of Iraqis a year after the US-led war. Of 2,652 Iraqis surveyed, the majority said life has got better since the war. Even more expected further improvements.

it's done by international broadcasters, not just BBC. so the pole is not a biased one as one might think.

edit:

and this is going to be funny. a few months ago, a pole done by ABC showed that the life if Iraiqs did not improve compared to times before war. but since that was done in occupation control, I guess it's a lie... ghostface.gif

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Quote[/b] ]Recent polls show the vast majority of Iraqis are better off now than when Saddam was burying them and that they want the coalition troops to deal with the Iraqi terrorist violence.

First of all I know of that poll and it was two months ago,so not exactly recent since it was made before Al-Sadr uprising.

Second,an AMERICAN company made it,working for the COALLITION,now that kills all the credibility doesn`t it?

And last I am "sure" the company travelled all the way from the South of Iraq to the north,since we know how split the Iraqi population is,and I am "sure" they went in Fallujah,Mosul,Tikrit,Samara and Ramadi too.

If you want polls,turn the TV and all you`ll see is Iraqis fed up with this occupation,fed up that they have to fear for they`re life,fed up with the fact that they are taken in the night from their homes with no reason,fed up with all the promises made but not met by the US.

The poll was conducted for the BBC by Oxford Research International, a UK based organization - not US.

I watch TV but I also read the newswire reports that say things like the merchants and the people on the streets of Fallujah were sickened with what their fellow residents did and have had it up to here with terrorists ruining their lives and their country.

Sounds really far-fetched, doesn't it.

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Quote[/b] ]did he ATTACK someone?

No, neither did countless of civilians killed all ready in that conflict. Some killed by accident, some killed by indifference and some killed on purpose. He chose to travel into an area where some considered him the enemy, that makes him a target, regardless.

Quote[/b] ]sure, and I see no problem of moral integrity going down the sewer. kill civilians if they don't stand on our side. wait, wasn't that what people were complaining about? lack of moral stance?

There is a difference between desperate men defending their homes, and men invading and occupying their land. While I think killing civilians is wrong, no matter what, I am not that naive as to not understanding that if you push people far enough, they will strike back. With anything and everything they have, at any target they can find.

Quote[/b] ]and my point is that for a soldier thinking whether the order is philosophically correct or not is not something that you want to debate when your life is on the line.

I dont think there is a better time to debate it, except maybe before your life is put on the line.

Quote[/b] ]Would you say that most of these people are Sunnis?

I wouldnt know, I have conducted any polls lately.

Quote[/b] ]Are you also calling for the US to leave immediately and abandon the Iraqis to the charms and persuasions of themselves?

No, I am calling for George W Bush to get off his high horse, pick up the phones, make some calls and hand it all over to the UN. Admit failure and ask for help in resolving it, and pay the price that help will cost. If Iraq is left to itself, it will probably destroy itself.

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No, neither did countless of civilians killed all ready in that conflict. Some killed by accident, some killed by indifference and some killed on purpose. He chose to travel into an area where some considered him the enemy, that makes him a target, regardless.

ok, so no civilians should go there, and so long Iraq stability.

Quote[/b] ]There is a difference between desperate men defending their homes, and men invading and occupying their land. While I think killing civilians is wrong, no matter what, I am not that naive as to not understanding that if you push people far enough, they will strike back. With anything and everything they have, at any target they can find.

and just what did the sunni's had to lose? they can work under the IRaqi gov't which had no intention of civil war in itself. By letting there guns speak before words, they are not helping anything much.

Quote[/b] ]I dont think there is a better time to debate it, except maybe before your life is put on the line.

agreed. and that means soldiers who are in it now are busy covering their asses, and can't give a thing about anything else but surviving.

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According to the same poll, they're not too impressed with the US/coalition ruining their lives and country either.

What a twisted assumption.

I would have stated:

According to the same poll, they're not too impressed with the US/coalition running their lives and country either.

5.jpg

More than half those asked were opposed to the presence

of coalition forces, although 39% supported their presence.

While 15% said the troops should leave Iraq immediately, 36%

said they should stay until an Iraqi government was in place.

Most respondents rejected violence, but 17% said they

considered attacks on coalition forces acceptable.

Maybe what they think is ruining their lives are religious fanatics, foreign Arab terrorists and Sunni Sadammites that are sabotaging their own country's infrastructure, economy and attempt to build a democratic country:

6.jpg

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Quote[/b] ]Iraq’s religious leaders scored the highest level of confidence, closely followed by the police and the new Iraqi army. At the other end of the scale, more than 40% of those questioned said they had no confidence at all in the US/UK occupation forces.

So if they're not impressed with the running of the country, the upshot is perhaps that the country is being ruined no? Running it to ruin is pretty much the opposite of running it well. It's all fairly academic anyway as the poll is out of date, and future polls are somewhat unlikely given the current situation.

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I would not be surprised if it was correct. The only positive results are these:

1.jpg

And this is not strange, because a year ago they were on the recieving end of the US Airforce bomb delivery service. You really have to outdo yourself to beat that situation in crappyness.

If we move on:

Hardly a reception with flowers, right?

2.jpg

Interesting here is how low the IGC scores.

3.jpg

Ooops:

4.jpg

5.jpg

6.jpg

One thing is that one should not really take these results for granted. The Iraqis were under Saddam for a very long time and speaking your mind politically is a new thing that many probably have not gotten accustomed yet. In short they say what they think the new masters want to hear.

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So if they're not impressed with the running of the country

Absolutely obvious.

Quote[/b] ]the upshot is perhaps that the country is being ruined no?

But by whom?

Quote[/b] ]Running it to ruin is pretty much the opposite of running it well.

It's not the running of the country that's ruining Iraq. It's the ruining of the country that prevents it from being run.

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I would not be surprised if it was correct. The only positive results are these:

1.jpg

And this is not strange, because a year ago they were on the recieving end of the US Airforce bomb delivery service. You really have to outdo yourself to beat that situation in crappyness.

The poll was taken in February. I believe the BBC mentioned it reflects Iraqis before/after Saddam mood, not their before/after JDAM mood.

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Yes thank you for clearing that up(who made the poll) but still the points remain:

1)The poll was made long before Al-Sadr uprising

2)There is still no credibillity on this since Iraq is a war zone and it`s fair to say the researchers didn`t travell from South to North from the Sunni triangle (Tikrit,Mosul,Fallujah,Ramadi,Samara) to Shi`ites main cities(Najaf,Kerbala) and to the Kurdish region.Just by stating those places you should get a picture about how split the Iraqi population is,so bottom line is that this poll prooves little of the current situation.

And the fact there was no "I put confidence in the Resistance" option makes you question even more it`s fairness

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It's not the running of the country that's ruining Iraq. It's the ruining of the country that prevents it from being run.

I would say that it's the god awful running of the country that, that is promoting the ruining of the country. But then that's all down to a matter of opinion really.

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Seriously, is there any reliable information on where that poll was done?

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I wouldnt say polls from Iraq are totally unreliable (anymore than from other rather unstable countries) but its certainly very difficult to get an accurate cross section of the population (including insurgents). But the fact that the poll took place before the Sadr uprising, whilst making it less relevant now, probably made it easier to conduct.

EiZei- "Seriously, is there any reliable information on where that poll was done?"

Yes 9th-28th Feb 04 as it says. Unless you consider they are lieing about when they did it in which case- TRUST NOONE, the truth is out there!

quicKsanD-"And the fact there was no  "I put confidence in the Resistance" option makes you question even more it`s fairness"

If you direct your eyes to the "coalition troops" section of the poll we read

Quote[/b] ]More than half those asked were opposed to the presence of coalition forces, although 39% supported their presence. While 15% said the troops should leave Iraq immediately, 36% said they should stay until an Iraqi government was in place. Most respondents rejected violence, but 17% said they considered attacks on coalition forces acceptable.

It seems logical to conclude does it not that that 17%  support the resistance?

i must say this part gave me pause for thought though:

Quote[/b] ]* Respondents who are aware of the coalition forces

I accept there may be some nomads in Iraq severely out of the loop but really! tounge_o.gif

Anyway, despite me thinking this one may be somewhat accurate, i dont think its wise to base too much on polls either at the moment. The situation in Iraq and peoples opinions, are too fluid.

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 blah blah...jihad.. blah blah... death to america... blah blah... holy war... blah blah.. I like Eurodisco ... blah blah death to Israel... blah blah

Who does he think he is?? some kind of allie?  tounge_o.gif

Just the opposite. He thinks Europe is.

Hardly. I'm just surprised it took him so long to try to exploit the US-Europe rift. It's not different from '39 and '40 when Hitler assured America that he had nothing against them at all. And before that he tried to pull off the same story within Europe too.

It's a very trivial attempt at manipulation.

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Recent polls show the vast majority of Iraqis are better off now than when Saddam was burying them and that they want the coalition troops to deal with the Iraqi terrorist violence.

According to your source...

1.jpg

Since when can ~57% be considered the vast majority? rock.gif

3.jpg

And how can you possibly claim that most Iraqis want the coalition troops to deal with the Iraqi terrorist violence?   rock.gif

Who appointed you spokesman for the majority of Iraqis?

Look who's talking. rock.gif

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Back to the polls. Maybe I didnt make myself clear enough during my last post. Instead of looking at questionable polls you should just think about all those factors ABC that make an iraqi happy and satisfied or angry and rebellious. I just cant believe that journalists have the peace right now to spend several days on the road collecting data for a poll. It is just unlogical!

A) Is the infrastructure working better than before

b) Are things changing to the better or getting worse

C) Are the US forces occupying or ensuring peace

D) IS the upcoming election perceived as a US muppet-show.

Instead of looking at silly polls (I hate polls anyway, they are phoney) you should rather question the circumstances that lead to public opinions! And then you draw a conclusion from that and translate it into public opinion, I bet you are 90% right!

(or do you tell me that people realy feel safer now than before the war  rock.gif )

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Since when can ~57% be considered the vast majority?

You're right. The majority. But if you change the point to is Iraq worse off today than under Saddam, the vast majority say no and the majority say there's actually been an improvement.

Furthermore, the vast majority are optimistic about the future.

Quote[/b] ]And how can you possibly claim that most Iraqis want the coalition troops to deal with the Iraqi terrorist violence? rock.gif

If I were an Iraqi and I were presented that exact same question, I would answer no differently. I would like my own countrymen to run my military, legal and economic affairs. There's a big difference between who SHOULD take care and who CAN take care or regaining security.

Under the question of COALITION FORCES, I would have been one of the ones who voted somewhat supportive because the only thing that would ensue by having the troops leave today to chaos 100 times worse than today.

Quote[/b] ]Look who's talking. rock.gif

The Iraqis.

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But watch out Blix, there are some fairly insane polls ran by coalition media coming out of Iraq saying Iraqis wanted the war, and they are better off now. wink_o.gifwink_o.gif (my god, where did they poll) biggrin_o.gif

As you can see, this is what I already commented onthese polls a while back. biggrin_o.gif

You people have got to be joking, 2600 people surveyed, no mention of how spread out the area was, and who picked them based on what. Useless.

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