Jump to content
Gunter Severloh

Diseases, Plagues, Viruses, & today we actually have one!

Recommended Posts

    Hey guys, an interesting topic, im sure many can agree that one would never had thought to see such a situation occur as the world being in a pandemic crises

in fear of an infectious virus or something else.

In human history if anyone has taken any interest to the subject such has the Black Plague of the 14th century, the Spanish flue of the 1800's, or

others that literally killed thousands if not close to millions of people just boggles your mind.

 

   On a note to that other then the Ebola virus some years back which seems to have been taken care of as far as im aware this new one the Covid19 virus is taking the world by storm

reading and watching videos on it, its crazy, here where i live nothing has really occurred yet, other then massive school, and sporting event closings, and cancellations 

 i was just at the local drug store this morning to pickup some gallons of water, and the shelves were empty so i had to settle for a few bottles, lol but aside that everything seems "normal".

 

Who would thought that in ones lifetime that you would experience, witness such a situation that you idk if you could say exist in movies with zombies, or an apocalyptic situation

i mean to say that it feels like a dream because idk about anyone else for me at least i never dealt with any serious situation of worry except maybe some months of unemployment

but never anything with major disasters, chaos, war, or even a pandemic like what is happening.

    I cant fathom what it was like for whole nations, peoples to go to war, go through war, and or live through what we are now slowly experiencing in our day and age, im sure for

some of you based on where you live the situation is more dire and serious then where i am but all i got to say is how crazy is this!

 

An interesting article i found which was just posted recently about Plagues, and viruses of the past, how they started, spread and how many people died,

as the author states we could learn from history, check it out

https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/black-plague-spanish-flu-smallpox-all-hold-lessons-for-coronavirus/#

also check this video out by Joe Rogan, who interviews a virus detective

 

What is everyone's situation where they currently live at?

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Media-induced hysteria ensues.

 

Government overreaches beyond duty, responsibility and authority.

 

ACLU and other so-called abuse watchdogs are silent.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, opusfmspol said:

Media-induced hysteria ensues.

 

Government overreaches beyond duty, responsibility and authority.

 

ACLU and other so-called abuse watchdogs are silent.

That may very well be the case.

 

1 hour ago, Gunter Severloh said:

What is everyone's situation where they currently live at?

Everything is fine here, thank dear God.

 

Also, what's wrong here?

lZEMtaN.png

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty strict regulations applied here, in Poland already, which seems most wise (we seem to be blessed by right man as minister of health, others involved decision makers too), one has to be proactive rather than reactive in order to successfully flatten exponential growth curve and that seems crucial to avoid/reduce healthcare overload (which is easy, sadly). No schools (homeschooling via internet attempted), mass events, even public gatherings >50 men banned, borders, for free travel closed - controls (sanitary inspections) restored also inside Schengen Zone, returning citizens brought back in organized way and quarantined, "home office" mode in many companies etc. etc. Because of general "stay at home" recommendation people here have more time for their families, than the oldest remember. Most of the economy will suffer, but gaming industry likely will be happy. Also hygiene standards amongs society should improve... Territorial Defense helps, also operational troops involved (securing borders).

 

At this point - day 11 since first confirmation - 125 COVID-19 confirmed (3 deaths) much more monitored and more confirmed cases expected, hopefully mostly amongst those monitored. Next days (how people will behave) will be critical as for epidemic dynamics. Observing positive impact of restrictions expected in next 10 days or so.

 

Kinda worrying though reading, how recklessly and dilatory govs in some other countries are (borders may stay closed long time due to that). 

 

As for me and my loved ones, no symptoms so far, but one has to be prepared mentally, as seems more likely, he'll be affected sooner or, hopefully, later, than otherwise.

 

The Polish way so far seems to be:

Trust in God, do your part, stay at home, keep calm and memento mori... Oh, and often also stash as many toilet paper, soap, nuddles, rice and meat as you can.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm wondering what the situation is going to be with business, and people with full time jobs down the road a bit, i mean i work in a warehouse and the

company i work for is a top tier shipping/trucking company, our main account is GM ( General Motors) and we ship/deliver their car/truck parts for them,

basically take them to all the car/truck dealers within and in the surrounding states.

     So my concern is aside the dockworkers in the warehouse itself, there are the truck drivers about 45+ of them i believe that travel to many dealerships to deliver parts

were talking about Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, Indiana, Iowa, and i forget where else, basically the Midwest where i live, exposure to other states is a concern.

 

      I can only guess that like Ebola this too will be beat, the real issue is how the Covid19 spreads which is airborne, i would think that they would need to test,

and quarantine people either to some place, or have them stay home, which from what i understand is what is being done.

 

     This seriously got out of hand real quick, they should have closed the borders as soon as this was discovered, and then test those who did have symptoms,

now their in a situation where their overwhelmed and have to test, and determine who has it, and how to "cure" it, this is so stupid its a dam joke, i guess its better

then a full blown war, but then this virus is a hidden enemy they said that people can be infected and not show symptoms until 4 days later from when they got it.

 

         I would beg to question those who live in seriously cold environments wouldn't have to worry about it to a certain degree of course, i guess it depends.

I feel sorry for those of you who live in Italy i heard that whole towns and borders were shut down, thats crazy, i mean how long do you idle in that

situation before its ok to return to normal life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We still don't know much about this virus, but from I heard so far, main reasons behind fast spreading would be likely long incubation time (I heard 2 weeks or even more without symptoms), lack of symptoms in some cases, especially children (combined with their lack of hygiene discipline) and because virus can stay pretty long on certain surfaces (this time varies widely depending on factors like temperature, humidity or material type, from minutes to several days apparently in case of stainless steel or plastics - surprising, I always thought, on the hard, smooth surfaces such stuff remains the shortests, seems opposite), so one can be extra careful about touching surfaces touched by many, like door handles, elevator buttons, handrails, tables etc. At least vulnerable to soap, if hands washed properly, or alcohols >60%. Most vulnerable are elderly people or those with impaired immune system, for them death rate is 10-15% by some sort of immune system dysregulation caused by the virus. Mainly for them limited amount of respirators etc. can be fatal, if healthcare overloaded (Italy for instance).

 

And it's rather droplet path only than airborne.

 

Ordinary flu usually is active mostly, when it's cold, also because lack of sun reduces effectiveness of human's immune system and bigger tendency to stay inside buildings with other people, but nothing sure yet about covid-19.

 

Introducing new drug/vaccine must take more, than a year, but there was some promising tests with drugs already on the market. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

its key to understand the relevant characteristics of the virus:

+ average time to symptoms: 5 days

+ 20% asymptomatic

+ most infectious in the first 7 days

the huge issue with this is the testing is basically 5-10 days behind the actual situation

 

+ fairly high transmissible (20% attack rate - means how likely to get if you are in contact with someone infected. plus R0 is 4-7 without measure. 2-3 with strict measures. means how one guy spreads it on average to others. its less than cold/flu but still very high)

+ mainly droplet infection (coughs and sneezes, or being close to someone (~2m) for 15+min to breath in the other persons air)

+ there is some level of aerosolization (similar to dust particle) - means can be up to 5-10 meters based on airflow. however concentration is way lower

+ virus can survive on surfaces based on humidity (more = longer, thus also material matters. wood/paper less - plastic and steel most) and UV (kills the virus). however direct contact still matters way more than surface

+ every age gets infected the same amount basically - only the symptoms and degradation differ

+ strength of your immune system matters most (worse for old people, or people with other illnesses)

overall its about scale, probabilities and chances

 

the 60-80% figure is based modeling - aka when does the virus run out of hosts as all infected have either immunity or are dead (aka chances get too low to jump to the next person) the figure itself is just based on the high transmissibly and lack of drugs and vaccine. as the latter one will need 1-2 years its the likely outcome. so the main goal is to stretch out that process as much as possible. best over 1-2 years to have the vaccine available and in the meantime keep health services and economy working somewhat

 

as for testing: there is simply not machines, the material and the manpower available. so they focus on those who are most important: medical staff, suspected cases (in bad state) based on symptoms and everyone else needed to keep things going. however there have been some improvements in recent days with better machines to upscale testing a great deal, plus (reliable) antigen tests to become available fairly soon too (cheap and quick). finally there seem to be a couple of good candidates for drugs that help in severe cases. should get confirmed and become available in the coming few weeks on mass scale (but time is short)

 

a lockdown has the issue the announcement will be leaked ahead of time and thus people will just escape last moment and spread even more. one has to "lock down" human interaction (termed social distancing). aka closing all non essential activities and force people staying home (potentially with threatening hefty penalty) (aside from going to work, supermarket, health related travel and other emergencies)
the issue is public transport obviously (aka not everyone can get there by foot, bike or car), hence China closed everything down apart from bare essentials
and many countries have poor regulation with sick leave or not even public health insurance

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I cant imagine the situation with this high populated countries like China and India the two most populated countries in the world,

they will have the most infected and death rates.

Heres a live counter on utube tracking the number of cases of infected, death rates, ect,. based on country idk how accurate this is.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guys a great video from a doctor who explains what the virus is,

how it infects you, what it does in your body and if it gets to the

point where it will kill you a good detailed explanation and demonstration:

another good video

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now

×