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Nicholas

Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL/Daesh) Discussion

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What the western coalition does't seem to get is that you can't "kill" an ideology with bullets and bombs (lame to compare the situation to a Dark Knight allegory but there you go). I wrote an article on how, even though air strikes are killing a ton of ISIS fighters, their propaganda is bringing in about the same amount as are being killed, plus other radical Islamic groups are pledging allegiance to the caliphate to increase their numbers. You can check out the article here if interested: https://www.the-newshub.com/international/how-strong-is-isis-today-an-analysis-of-the-islamic-states-global-influence.

 

It's basically an analysis of the current situation. I'm totally open to feedback if there's an important point I missed.

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What the western coalition does't seem to get is that you can't "kill" an ideology with bullets and bombs

 

Yes you can :) Sufficient volume is required though.

 

Commit to a 100 year 'eradication' campaign.

 

What you cannot do is change peoples minds with bullets and bombs.

 

 

If you're only killing military age males, you'll never accomplish your goals. And in wars of insurgency, you'll never get anywhere in the short term if you dont do 2 things: 1. control the borders of the region. 2. target the civilian population. You have to control the border and you have to be willing to target the civilian population, if you want to actually finish the conflict. Sad but maybe people will question their own desire to get involved militarily, if they know the reality of winning.

 

Machiavellian, but you either have to leave a population alone, or completely wipe them out. You can't kill their 15-30 yr old sons and expect the problem to stop. Those 10 year old brothers are 18 in 8 years (maths, yay), and those women are still having babies, producing more military age males in a couple decades.

 

If you want to wipe out an ideology, you have to wipe out all traces of it, which means the women and children as well. Anything else is destined to failure. If a nation is not prepared to do that, then any attempt at a military solution will fail in the medium/long term.

 

Right now ISIL/Daesh/etc are filled with military age males who were 5-12 years old during the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. And today, their mothers and sisters are giving birth to babies who will pick up an AK-47 in the year 2030. I think you get the idea ...

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While I agree that would probably work, my first instinct was to put the whole genocide option on the backburner. It might be a simpler option to just make their ideological position impossible for anyone with a child to rally behind. Right now they claim the west is evil and imperialistic, which people latch onto because, like you said, they were children when America invaded and bombed the shit out of their homeland. Helping the region's kids instead by supplying the tools for a better life would leave both them and their parents in the west's debt. It might take time, but eventually it would really take the wind out of these extremist groups sails. Why take arms up against someone you're indebted to and to an extent dependent on? 

 

I guess it's just me being too optimistic.

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As long as russia keeps blowing the crap out of rebels, who'm are the main suppliers of isis in the form of mercenaries, then I am happy. But one catch, as long as we dont go to ww3 over russia bombing them. 

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As long as russia keeps blowing the crap out of rebels, who'm are the main suppliers of isis in the form of mercenaries, then I am happy. But one catch, as long as we dont go to ww3 over russia bombing them. 

 

Why does everyone still buy into this WWIII rubbish? How in the hell (or more specifically, why in the hell) would it start over Syria? Do you simply not understand that both of the main players (U.S./RF) have absolutely no interest in confronting each other directly just for Syria? It's a CW proxy war plain and simple, and not a full scale superpower conflict.

 

And the fact that you see all of the rebels as being composed of just "ISIS mercenaries" is quite an asinine assumption to make.

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Why does everyone still buy into this WWIII rubbish? How in the hell (or more specifically, why in the hell) would it start over Syria? Do you simply not understand that both of the main players (U.S./RF) have absolutely no interest in confronting each other directly just for Syria? It's a CW proxy war plain and simple, and not a full scale superpower conflict.

 

And the fact that you see all of the rebels as being composed of just "ISIS mercenaries" is quite an asinine assumption to make.

 

I dont think they do have that interest either. Strangely, no one had any real interest in the last 2 world wars either except those that started them. People become crazy sometimes.

 

Anyone that thinks the rebels do not just defect after receiving training and finding their way to the highest bidder is a bit asinine. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that funding a rebellion in the middle of a multi-faceted conflict will lead to a conflict of side vs side. 

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(Vice News) Video Shows the Islamic State Prison Rescue Operation That Killed an American Soldier

 

 

Footage has emerged of a rescue operation that occurred in northern Iraq this week, in which United States special operations forces rescued about 70 Kurdish hostages in a military raid on an Islamic State (IS) stronghold that left one American service member dead.

 

 

Four Kurds were wounded and a US commando was killed during the operation, becoming the first American to die on the ground in the fight against IS militants in Iraq and Syria. The Pentagon identified the soldier as Master Sergeant Joshua L. Wheeler.

According to US Defense Secretary Ash Carter, Wheeler rushed into a firefight to rescue captive Kurdish forces. Carter said that US troops had not planned to enter the compound, and were initially there only to advise and assist the Kurdish fighters. The American forces were ultimately drawn in when the Kurds began to incur casualties, according to Colonel Steve Warren, a spokesman for the US-led coalition that has been bombing IS militants for more than a year.

 

 

None of the captives freed by the raiders were peshmerga, suggesting that Kurdish prisoners may have been moved by militants to another location, a Kurdish source added.

Some 62 peshmerga have gone missing in battle with the militants and several have been beheaded in Islamic State propaganda videos. Islamic State holds hostages in detention centers across the sprawling lands it controls. It also regularly executes people it accuses of spying for the Iraqi state or foreign powers.

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I dont think they do have that interest either. Strangely, no one had any real interest in the last 2 world wars either except those that started them. People become crazy sometimes.

 

It's 2015, not 1933. Money & realpolitik are the motivating factors for both sides of this conflict, not some crazed nationalist movement.

 

Anyone that thinks the rebels do not just defect after receiving training and finding their way to the highest bidder is a bit asinine.

 

Whether neutral or anti-government, there are dozens of anti-ISIS militias apart from the Kurds, Gulf-funded extremists, and FSA that fight in Syria, not to mention the more localised groups that aren't even affiliated with both sides who get caught in the crossfire. Yet somehow you see them all as a homogeneous entity of "ISIS mercenaries"? I honestly hope you're joking...

 

And I do find it curious how you do not voice this sentiment towards Hezbollah and the radical militias fighting for the Syrian government. I don't see you cheering on the RuAF to drop a few bombs on them even though Hezzie & co. are terrorists who've racked up quite a list of war crimes in Syria.

 

 

It is perfectly reasonable to assume that funding a rebellion in the middle of a multi-faceted conflict will lead to a conflict of side vs side. 

 

America and Russia did not go to WWIII over Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Yugoslavia. And those proxy wars were fought at a time when both sides had very itchy fingers on the flashy red button, so again, that does not mean that WWIII will be happening any time soon, and especially not over Syria.

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You're looking at "US vs Russia", while in fact it's more a "Saudi Arabia vs Iran" proxy war. Of course, US and Russia do have interest there, but they are driven by the two leaders of the Arab world (yes, Iran isn't an arab country..)

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LOL! You guys are literally just trolls trying to twist what people say. I never said side vs side leads to ww3. I never said we would instigate ww3. World wars happen when the amount of tensions reach a critical point. No one hear should want more tension unless you are a crazy neocon

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http://www.defence24.pl/270112,panstwo-islamskie-czy-jego-kleska-na-bliskim-wschodzie-bedzie-poczatkiem-w-europie

 

google translate yourself on your language 

 

Polish military portal (geopolitical, energy, military analysis website)  says about problem "when ISIS will be defeated in Middle East, it will move further to Europe because of ideology of jihad, Saudis infected wahabism and salafism into previously moderate muslims in Europe, as result we have now extremists from Kosovo and Bosnia, nowadays there are villages in Bosnia in which ISIS flags are waving, Turkey also has goal in weakening strenght of Europe so Europe is more passive to Ankara"

so defeating JUST few guys from ISIS will not change problem, this problem is ideology, 

we cannot kill ideology with bullets, we just gonna make new martyrs , because ideology wants to spread on whole globe and we not protect our culture against other culture influence 

destroying caliphate will cause that our jihadists will start more and more terror acts here, cause for them only goal is world's caliphate , 

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Look at this from another angle: who sponsored, trained and equipped and used islamists since late 70's and who is main ally and patron of Middle East countries that are main islamism and salafism supporters?

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Look at this from another angle: who sponsored, trained and equipped and used islamists since late 70's and who is main ally and patron of Middle East countries that are main islamism and salafism supporters?

As if Iran and Assad's Syria never sponsored terrorism :rolleyes:

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poverty making people extreme myth vs reality:

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3278441/Revealed-British-son-Indiana-Jones-movie-director-al-Qaeda-jihadi-poster-boy-bent-terror.html

http://metro.co.uk/2015/10/19/this-is-the-new-face-of-al-qaeda-in-syria-a-hollywood-directors-british-son-5447859/

 

question: why EU/American countries don't take away citizenship of those who joined ISIS ? 

why jihadists have right to return to America/Europe ? why ?

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As if Iran and Assad's Syria never sponsored terrorism :rolleyes:

Care to show what organizations or groups, sponsored by Syria or Iran, performed massive executions and tortures, rapes, slave trade, oil and drugs smuggling, destructions of ancient culture memorials, used chemical weapons against civilians as a provocation aimed at government regime and held ideology of religious extremism?

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Care to show what organizations or groups, sponsored by Syria or Iran, performed massive executions and tortures, rapes, slave trade, oil and drugs smuggling, destructions of ancient culture memorials, used chemical weapons against civilians as a provocation aimed at government regime and held ideology of religious extremism?

 

I don't say IS are nice guys, i say you have short memories about how Russia's sponsored allies behaved in the past, or still behave, moreover Assad is responsible for a massive slaughter of his own people, mainly civilians. There have been mass executions in Iran, soldiers kids sent to destroy minefields during Iran/Irak war, very strict Sharia enforcement, torture in Syria by the so nice Mukhabarat, and in Iran, chemical weapons used against civilians by Assad, countless terror attacks in Lebanon, etc.

 

Or, if you want a quick parallel, it was unavoidable to fight together with Stalin to get rid of Hitler, but Stalin was a murderous monster too.

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And I don't say about IS only, but also about so-called islamic opposition in Afghanistan that had been fighting against legitimate government from 70's and received money, instructors and gear from some Arab US allies and CIA directly. And later large part of it became Taliban (originally formed in Pakistan, also US ally) or moved to other war zones such as Bosnia, Chechnya or Karabakh. And local islamic radicals in Chechnya that were appreciated in Europe and US. Both Assad and Iranian ayatallahs are just kids comparing with way longer record of some democratic country's ties with different radical movements across the Middle East and Central Asia.

P.S. Would I remind about some agency's ties with one freedom fighter from Saudi Arabia that used to fight with Soviet army in A-stan and later became the head of Al-Quaeda?

Oh and recruitment of teens to armed forces and groups is a very common thing in islamic regions such as Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chechnya or Kosovo.

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Care to show what organizations or groups, sponsored by Syria or Iran, performed massive executions and tortures, rapes, slave trade, oil and drugs smuggling, destructions of ancient culture memorials, used chemical weapons against civilians as a provocation aimed at government regime and held ideology of religious extremism?

a minute of ISIS video 

 

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poverty making people extreme myth vs reality:

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3278441/Revealed-British-son-Indiana-Jones-movie-director-al-Qaeda-jihadi-poster-boy-bent-terror.html

http://metro.co.uk/2015/10/19/this-is-the-new-face-of-al-qaeda-in-syria-a-hollywood-directors-british-son-5447859/

 

question: why EU/American countries don't take away citizenship of those who joined ISIS ? 

why jihadists have right to return to America/Europe ? why ?

 

 

Sorry, I can´t take anybody seriously who quotes the Daily Mail as a source of information.

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question: why EU/American countries don't take away citizenship of those who joined ISIS ? 

why jihadists have right to return to America/Europe ? why ?

 

IS Jihadists coming back to France are jailed. I would favor taking away their citizenship, if that doesn't prevent Justice from doing its job.

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Assad is not hated because how he handled Islamic opposition in his country, no, no, no. Note that after the 9/11 Syrian intelligence have provided very good intelligence leads on Al-Qaeda, it was the moment when Syria was ready for political openness, Syria was on the right track to become a leading country in the region. 

After the invasion of Iraq, Syria criticized this move by the US. Bush decided to cut all ties with Assad and to ostracize him in Western world. Due to this Assad had to found new allies to keep Syria in safety. Remember what president Bush said - who is not with us, is against us, this this famous speech when Bush also accused Syria of harboring terrorists and named Syria a threat in the region. That was the price Assad had to pay for opposing the invasion of Iraq in revenge for 9/11.

 

 

... fighting against legitimate government from 70's

 

You mean the King of Afghanistan or governments that emerged after the putsch of '73 and '78? 

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but also about so-called islamic opposition in Afghanistan that had been fighting against legitimate government from 70's

 

:232:

 

EDIT:

 

You mean the King of Afghanistan or governments that emerged after the putsch of '73 and '78?

ah, in that sense. I thought he meant after 79.

Did they offer training and gear before 79? Don't think so

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You mean the King of Afghanistan or governments that emerged after the putsch of '73 and '78? 

Republican ones, not monarchy.

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