Ukraine General

[fabrizio_t 58]

Well, I don't see that scenario ( maybe it's just false hope ). I think the Ukrainian Army will take the rebel areas relatively soon ( a few months as much ), and later there may be some conflicts inside the actual Ukraine but not involving Crimea.

But to try to recover Crimea militarily would be really crazy and don't think anyone would vote for that in the Ukrainian Gov.

First because I don't think the Ukraine's Army can defeat the Russian one in a direct conflict without much support on the ground ( most of the Ukrainians that lived in Crimea had moved ). You can't just compare the capabilities.

And second I don't think any country would support Ukraine in that conflict, even if the Russia Military occupation of Crimea is illegal. But I don't think no country thinks its worth the costs.

First of all let me thank you for the opportunity of debating this.

I share the same hope that current scenario won't escalate.

That said, some elements make me concerned:

a) EAST Sources say Poroshenko himself declared his willingness to "return Crimea to Ukraine".

It may be propaganda or not. Let's see whether WEST sources confirm or deny this declaration.

Reference:

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2014/05/26/364280/i-will-get-crimea-back-poroshenko/

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/743288

b) War comes with a cost. How a country like Ukraine, which had extremely dissested finances, can suddenly mobilize all its forces for a massive offensive ?

Where comes the money from ?

Reference:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/04/09/no-matter-what-happens-in-the-east-ukraine-is-going-to-default/

c) The sudden recovery of Ukrainian Army and its renewed willingness to fight are strange.

Either Poroshenko now feels he's backed by strong powers hence he does not fear Russian intervention, or he knows for sure that Russia won't make a move.

(I hope for the latter case, since the former would still put a Crimean clash in perspective)

d) An "Accident" like the MH17 case looks anything but casual. Looks like it was designed as a "casus belli", aggravating relationship between EU and RUSSIA.

All in all, if you take a look to current situation on the continental level, it looks unexplicable.

Friction is mounting between EU and Russia, while both sides would have interest into strenghtening relations.

Strange "accidents" add heat (MH17).

EU follows US on sanctions, but that's suicidal. Russia counter-sanctions are coming and will make things worse for EU countries.

Within this scenario traditionally active countries such as France and Germany remain basically aligned and silent (i can only suspect secret negotiations are going on).

Ultimately, who has interest in keeping situation heated and pushing West Europe against Russia through NATO?

Who would ultimately profit from their weakening ?

Edited August 7, 2014 by fabrizio_T

[JdB 151]

Russian media report that Aleksandr Borodaj, leader of the separatists in the Donetsk region is being replaced by a Ukrainian named Aleksandr Zahartsjenko. Either Russia is withdrawing it's support, or more likely it wants to increase it's military involvement and/or keep it's agents out of the hands of Ukraine and the ICC now that Donetsk is being encircled. Borodaj was the political front, not a soldier. I guess we'll know if more "replacements" are going to happen soon like Girkiv and Antyufeyev.

[fabrizio_t 58]

Russian media report that Aleksandr Borodaj, leader of the separatists in the Donetsk region is being replaced by a Ukrainian named Aleksandr Zahartsjenko. Either Russia is withdrawing it's support, or more likely it wants to increase it's military involvement and/or keep it's agents out of the hands of Ukraine and the ICC now that Donetsk is being encircled. Borodaj was the political front, not a soldier. I guess we'll know if more "replacements" are going to happen soon like Girkiv and Antyufeyev.

Looks to me a step towards "pacification" by the Kremlin.

We move towards Kosovification of Ukraine?

[JdB 151]

Looks to me a step towards "pacification" by the Kremlin.

We move towards Kosovification of Ukraine?

Backing down is not in Putin's nature, his entire image is built on not backing down. The only reason could be that his oligarch friends are feeling the (potential) hurt of sanctions and are pressuring him.

[beastcat 14]

a) EAST Sources say Poroshenko himself declared his willingness to "return Crimea to Ukraine".

It may be propaganda or not. Let's see whether WEST sources confirm or deny this declaration.

Poroshenko said that he wants Crimea back, but not with war. He said that relations to Russia will never be the same as long as Russia occupies Crimea and that he hopes it may return due to the pressure from the EU and the US. Going to war with Russia is suicide.

b) War comes with a cost. How a country like Ukraine, which had extremely dissested finances, can suddenly mobilize all its forces for a massive offensive ?

Where comes the money from ?

Reference:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/04/09/no-matter-what-happens-in-the-east-ukraine-is-going-to-default/

c) The sudden recovery of Ukrainian Army and its renewed willingness to fight are strange.

Either Poroshenko now feels he's backed by strong powers hence he does not fear Russian intervention, or he knows for sure that Russia won't make a move.

(I hope for the latter case, since the former would still put a Crimean clash in perspective)

The army is still ill equipped and struggles to provide basic needs, however much more of the military has been mobilized and the majority of the soldiers are volunteers, fighting for free and providing equipment (exept for weapons) for themselves, with the population supporting them with money and supplies.

d) An "Accident" like the MH17 case looks anything but casual. Looks like it was designed as a "casus belli", aggravating relationship between EU and RUSSIA.

-.-

Edited August 7, 2014 by beastcat

[maturin 12]

Ultimately, who has interest in keeping situation heated and pushing West Europe against Russia through NATO?

Who would ultimately profit from their weakening ?

No one. Or at least, not the United States. The Eurozone came within a hairsbreadth of collapse, which would have utterly trashed the USA's fragile economic recovery. If more countries become disillusioned with the EU, they are more likely to pursue policies that are friendly to Russia, not fall in line on Iran sanctions, etc. Treating the EU as a rival bloc that needs undermining would be a suicidal policy and not a project that the Obama administration would ever embark upon. (It's truly amusing how people think they are being hard-nosed analysts of national interests when they completely disregard the internal political imperatives of countries' actual leaders. Ignoring ideology and assuming absolute cynicism is like a badge of honor for the ignorant).

You are falling into the trap of the amateur hack. No one shadowy power is masterminding all these 'coincidences,' or forcing countries to act against their apparent interests. This is just how conflict works. Rivals goad each other into taking painful measures in order to gain the upper hand. Pragmatic concerns clash with ideology and values.

b) War comes with a cost. How a country like Ukraine, which had extremely dissested finances, can suddenly mobilize all its forces for a massive offensive ?

Where comes the money from ?

This is not a difficult question. Ukraine is a country with basketcase finances, and it is accordingly putting on a slipshod war effort, relying on private oligarch-funded shock troops and charitable donations from citizens.

As for other support, you know very well where it's coming from. The U.S. provides military support to countries it wants stabilized, as does Russia and every other world power. Deliveries of body armor to the Ukrainian military were front page news. Nothing insidious. So what?

c) The sudden recovery of Ukrainian Army and its renewed willingness to fight are strange.

Please don't be ridiculous. Maybe you adhere to a tepid brand of patriotism and cannot relate, but most soldiers have a certain reaction when their country is being invaded and dismembered by a former colonial overlord before their very eyes.

Not to get all up in your face, but your open-ended questions ape the style of the conspiracy theorist. If the downing of an airliner flying over a sensitive border (as has happened many time before) is too convenient to be an accident, then surely you have to assess the suspicious nature of all these other recent catastrophes. Two Malaysian planes in one year! Isn't that even more impossible? Mustn't there be a connection? And what about the Taiwanese and French planes that came down mere weeks afterwards? If you cannot credit the existence of one small coincidence, how can you ignore all these compounded occurrences?

[beastcat 14]

Due to intelligence sources, sigint Russia could attack Chernyhiv region of Ukraine tomorrow

The terrorists shot down the Ukrainian medical evacuation helicopter Mi-8

[vilas 473]

MiG 29 of UA shot down

[beastcat 14]

Statement by the Prime Minister of Canada announcing security assistance to Ukraine

[vilas 473]

Putin has 87% support in Russia acc. to latest opinion polls , we got another Third Reich with cult of leader in the world

this Russian nationalism and imperialism can lead world to WW3 , i thought this guy has like 50% , but not almost 90, propaganda brainwashing worked well

[barakokula31 10]

Due to intelligence sources, sigint Russia could attack Chernyhiv region of Ukraine tomorrow

Do you happen to know of an English version of that article?

[vilas 473]

is there a confirmation about MiG 29 shot down on high altitude ?

[beastcat 14]

Do you happen to know of an English version of that article?

This is the best I can do.

is there a confirmation about MiG 29 shot down on high altitude ?

According to this, a plane has been shot down at 19:30.

[mistyronin 1181]

is there a confirmation about MiG 29 shot down on high altitude ?

I haven't found any officially but:

( Sky News Australia ) Ukrainian fighter jet shot down as 'PM' quits

This is the best I can do.

Well if that's true tomorrow around noon we will know about it. But I think that is unlikely.

[beastcat 14]

Washington Times - Russian bombers penetrated U.S. airspace at least 16 times in past 10 days

Russian strategic nuclear bombers conducted at least 16 incursions into northwestern U.S. air defense identification zones over the past 10 days, an unusually sharp increase in aerial penetrations, according to U.S. defense officials.

[mistyronin 1181]

Washington Times - Russian bombers penetrated U.S. airspace at least 16 times in past 10 days

They also did in Finland, UK, and others. We posted the links here. It's a Russian strategy to know about the countries defenses. But they have been doing that for a lot of years.

[beastcat 14]

The pilots of the downed evacuation Mi-8 helicopter have been transported to a hospital in Dnipropetrovsk.

---------- Post added at 21:00 ---------- Previous post was at 20:49 ----------

Welt.de - Separatists shoot down ukrainian military jet

The rebels in eastern Ukraine have shot down a ukrainian Mig-29. While the battle in the east goes on, the secretary general of NATO Rasmussen assures support in Kiev.

Original:

Die Rebellen in der Ostukraine haben eine Mig-29 der ukrainischen Streitkräfte abgeschossen. Während die Kämpfe im Osten weitergehen, sichert in Kiew Nato-Generalsekretär Rasmussen Unterstützung zu.

Confirmation that a Mig-29 has been shot down.

The pilot steered the airplane into uninhabited territory and most likely saved himself. A search for the wreck is currently conducted.

[aleksadragutin 9]

Wait, because people like and respect their leader, they are now fashist sh*t? And this all started with protests backed by EU and US, so they are as much to blame.

---------- Post added at 22:30 ---------- Previous post was at 22:28 ----------

Putin has 87% support in Russia acc. to latest opinion polls , we got another Third Reich with cult of leader in the world

this Russian nationalism and imperialism can lead world to WW3 , i thought this guy has like 50% , but not almost 90, propaganda brainwashing worked well

I was quoting this.

[maturin 12]

When your leader is a massively corrupt war criminal who has illegally amassed billions in personal wealth while ruling the country through cronies and the secret services, whitewashing history and embracing militarism while destroying independent media and passing laws that blatantly violate the constitution, yes... if you support him you're bending over and taking it up the butt.

Only jingoistic, fear-mongering 'us vs them' chauvinist propaganda from the fascist playbook can marshal that sort of support.

Of course, the 87% statistic is rather misleading. At least half of the country is fully capable of engaging in critical thought, and harbor deep disgust for Putin's party and his Chekist priorities for running the country. Russians are just collectivistic by nature, and want to be more or less in the same boat, in favor the stability that has seen their standard of living increase. They also have valid reasons for being no fans of the Ukrainian government, which is the product of a Ukrainian nationalism that often despises Russia, or of U.S. foreign policy, which clashes with the political values that have emerged because of the 1990s. Russians are also highly pragmatic politically, and know that there are no current alternatives to Putin that would not be worse. Lastly, the state media has so successfully demonized all the country's political minorities (liber-asts, etc) that no one wants to be contaminated by the stigma of opposition.

These are the 'facts on the ground,' but they are facts that Putin's government has carefully groomed and nurtured. Standards of living have increased because Putin uses oil money to boost pensions and state-worker pay while the backwards economy stagnates and infrastructure crumbles. U.S. excesses are trumpeted non-stop on TV, and completely fabricated where necessary (for example, it is the official party line that the CIA created the Arab Spring out of nothing, and started Maidan). And of course, there are no alternatives to Putin because no challengers are allowed to emerge. They are choked off by the media, intimidated or co-opted by the regime.

Edited August 8, 2014 by maturin

[barakokula31 10]

Wait, because people like and respect their leader, they are now fashist sh*t?

No, they're not fascists. They are, however, comparable to fascists, and Putin is therefore somewhat comparable to pre-World War II Hitler. Sudetenland and Crimea, anyone (though, to be fair, that annexation was actually internationally recognized and wasn't deemed illegal by most countries in the world)?

Also, what maturin said.

[maturin 12]

In general, Russia is in an uproar over Ukraine because it is looking in a mirror. Ukraine is what Russia's economy would be like if oil prices were to drop. Its population growth is what Russia's would be without immigration and its Muslim regions. Maidan is what would happen in Moscow if the Russian people weren't so quiescent about their own corrupt oligarch ruler letting the country (besides the military) crumble. Right Sector and Svoboda is just a mirror image of Russia's own pseudo-fascist chauvinist mainstream, and a direct response to it.

[mistyronin 1181]

---------- Post added at 08:36 ---------- Previous post was at 06:40 ----------

BTW foreign combatants in the pro-Russian side, in this case a couple of left-wing pro communist from Spain. The video is supposed to be in English:

http://youtu.be/JV_z3Pz21PI

In this last one in Spanish / Russian, the two guys say that the fight in Ukraine is the same as the one in the Spanish Civil War.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbogUWoWYpE

Edited August 8, 2014 by MistyRonin

[Dwarden 1124]

The terrorists shot down the Ukrainian medical evacuation helicopter Mi-8

was it marked as medical mi-8 ? if yes then that's warcrime

[aleksadragutin 9]

When your leader is a massively corrupt war criminal who has illegally amassed billions in personal wealth while ruling the country through cronies and the secret services, whitewashing history and embracing militarism while destroying independent media and passing laws that blatantly violate the constitution, yes... if you support him you're bending over and taking it up the butt.

Only jingoistic, fear-mongering 'us vs them' chauvinist propaganda from the fascist playbook can marshal that sort of support.

Of course, the 87% statistic is rather misleading. At least half of the country is fully capable of engaging in critical thought, and harbor deep disgust for Putin's party and his Chekist priorities for running the country. Russians are just collectivistic by nature, and want to be more or less in the same boat, in favor the stability that has seen their standard of living increase. They also have valid reasons for being no fans of the Ukrainian government, which is the product of a Ukrainian nationalism that often despises Russia, or of U.S. foreign policy, which clashes with the political values that have emerged because of the 1990s. Russians are also highly pragmatic politically, and know that there are no current alternatives to Putin that would not be worse. Lastly, the state media has so successfully demonized all the country's political minorities (liber-asts, etc) that no one wants to be contaminated by the stigma of opposition.

These are the 'facts on the ground,' but they are facts that Putin's government has carefully groomed and nurtured. Standards of living have increased because Putin uses oil money to boost pensions and state-worker pay while the backwards economy stagnates and infrastructure crumbles. U.S. excesses are trumpeted non-stop on TV, and completely fabricated where necessary (for example, it is the official party line that the CIA created the Arab Spring out of nothing, and started Maidan). And of course, there are no alternatives to Putin because no challengers are allowed to emerge. They are choked off by the media, intimidated or co-opted by the regime.

People don't need freedom, they need order and security, and that's what Putin is providing. I wish my country had a leader as potent as him, to taim the criminal lords and restore order. So what if you can't publicly denounce him, and why would you even want to, if your standard of living is better than what it used to be.

[fabrizio_t 58]

In this last one in Spanish / Russian, the two guys say that the fight in Ukraine is the same as the one in the Spanish Civil War

Merkel-Putin vs. Rippentrop-Molotov, Crimea vs. Sudetenland, Putin vs. Hitler, 2014 vs 1914.

We were missing Spanish Civil war.

What's next? Charge of the Light Brigade?

Seriously, you can see propaganda working full steam on both sides.