Jump to content
eble

Syria - What should we do if anything?

Recommended Posts

Syria don't stand a chance if the US steps in. One thing guaranteed is that people die in a war, The question is what happens when you die ? Whoever knows the answer to that, and there are people who do, will live without fear or in fear.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It shows similar patterns of behaviour, non compliance with international treaties and similar denials and cover ups. The demolition of the nuclear reactor was one of the quickest in history and the last 5 days of intensive shelling of the areas subjected to gas attack were a similar attempt to cover up evidence.

Plenty of countries have undertaken building nuclear reactors in secrecy, but only one that I can think of (Iraq) has ever been known to employ chemical weapons against its own population. Having tried to go nuclear is anything but a proof of using chemical weapons against anyone.

Let's for a moment suppose it was indeed the regime's doing, and ask ourselves some corresponding questions, shall we?

#1, Why only use it once on a small scale, without any attempt at following up by seizing control of the area?

#2, Why wait until now, when the war is going well for the regime, as opposed to let's say a year or two ago, when most people were just waiting for the opposition to break through and overthrow the regime within the week, like in Libya?

#3, Why give 3rd parties who've been waiting for an excuse to strike said excuse to do so, in light of the favourable circumstances?

#4, How could the regime expect to keep it a secret? Their soldiers have been defecting from the start of the war and still are. The wast amounts of personnel who'd be involved in this and gain enough knowledge to tell the world, especially since the regime has troops of their own in the area, who'd need to be alerted to avoid potentially crippling fratricide in the local area, would almost guarantee that someone would've defected by now and told their story.

On another note: If there is a strike, it's probably going to be limited to cruise missiles. Doing otherwise would be risky in face of the fact that the Russians, as said, have helped out with more AA assets, and it would demand a large diplomatic effort, as well as increased resources to ensure that the AA networks are completely set out of commission. It would also be a lot harder to justify at home, due to the large costs and rather larger risks involved this time, as opposed to with Ghaddafi, who'd come so close to the West that the Russians couldn't be arsed to support him.

Edited by scrim

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This quote seems to sum up how I feel about the whole debacle.

"Screw Syria and screw the Syrian rebels. If we intervene at all it better either be a dog and pony show or with orbital bombardment. Neither side deserves anything less than being ignored or wiped off the face of the planet. They're both equally evil and insane, let them slaughter each other in their own little crap hole they've made for themselves, it doesn't concern the rest of the world."

Mick. :)

_________________________

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This ought to end well for everyone :rolleyes:

It cannot end well, whatever side loses, it will force its supports to step in. A major regional conflict is on the way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Plenty of countries have undertaken building nuclear reactors in secrecy, but only one that I can think of (Iraq) has ever been known to employ chemical weapons against its own population. Having tried to go nuclear is anything but a proof of using chemical weapons against anyone.

Let's for a moment suppose it was indeed the regime's doing, and ask ourselves some corresponding questions, shall we?

#1, Why only use it once on a small scale, without any attempt at following up by seizing control of the area?

#2, Why wait until now, when the war is going well for the regime, as opposed to let's say a year or two ago, when most people were just waiting for the opposition to break through and overthrow the regime within the week, like in Libya?

#3, Why give 3rd parties who've been waiting for an excuse to strike said excuse to do so, in light of the favourable circumstances?

#4, How could the regime expect to keep it a secret? Their soldiers have been defecting from the start of the war and still are. The wast amounts of personnel who'd be involved in this and gain enough knowledge to tell the world, especially since the regime has troops of their own in the area, who'd need to be alerted to avoid potentially crippling fratricide in the local area, would almost guarantee that someone would've defected by now and told their story.

Didn't say it was proof - just a pattern of deception and illegal activity that has continued for many years, so why believe them now?

1. It's been used on a small scale several times without follow up - it's simple terror. See links to witnesses earlier in the thread.

2. Who says the war is going well? Russians, Iranians and Assad? I would say they stopped losing thanks to outside help/interference by the very people that said this shouldn't happen and it's more of an attrition with a few gains now.

3. Calculated risk along with Russia's word that it will stall the UN no matter what happens?

4. The item's like chemical/biological weapons are looked after by trusted people with family ties to the regime - they don't defect. Every time CW have been used, they blamed it on the rebels. The Russians verified that all stockpiles had been consolidated near the coast at Tartus, in Aliwite territory in 2011, yet now we get stories about rebels finding CW weapon stores?

Syria don't stand a chance if the US steps in. One thing guaranteed is that people die in a war, The question is what happens when you die ? Whoever knows the answer to that, and there are people who do, will live without fear or in fear.

When you die it's the end, just blackness and nothingness...... I don't fear it ;)

Edited by Mattar_Tharkari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you want an accurate breakdown of weapons supplies there is a good one here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22906965

The Russians have supplied advanced weapons to Assad's forces, Iran is suppling rockets, anti-tank missiles, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars despite UN sanctions imposed on its arms exports. Breaking international law seems to be habitual among this small group of nations, yet they choose to hide behind it when it suits?:

It's interesting to note that all Syria's neighbours, except Israel, are supplying or facilitating the delivery of conventional weapons, medical supplies and NBC protection to the rebels? Perhaps they know something about the Assad regime that the very wise and learned members of this forum do not wish to know ;).

i wonder if you noticed the 'internal conflict' between two major branches of islam there ...

oh btw. these neighbours countries belong to one and those "defending" to the other ...

seriously ... where is that facepalm emotion ?

{ more reading history books ... less ranting on forums }

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
i wonder if you noticed the 'internal conflict' between two major branches of islam there ...

oh btw. these neighbours countries belong to one and those "defending" to the other ...

seriously ... where is that facepalm emotion ?

{ more reading history books ... less ranting on forums }

It's here, FPDR

Now could you provide us with your guidance on the make up of the population (demographics) in pre-2011 Syria (hint 60-70% Sunni). Then tell us more about how you support a dictator who governs under emergency powers introduced in 1963 with the support of autocrats, a family mafia and a blood thirsty secret police drawn from a minority sect. I don't dispute there is a conflict, but Assad's regime only has the support of the minority. Their goal like that of many others is to drive the majority Sunni across the borders (his father attempted this too and killed 10,000 - 50,000). He will then hold a sham election and surprise, surprise, surprise, win the vote. Rigging is easy if there is no opposition alive/present.

I suggest you buy yourself some morals, that is if you have time between supporting pariah regimes and selling half finished products. ;)

Latest: Germany agrees with US, UK & France - Assad Regime cannot go unpunished.

Edited by Mattar_Tharkari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1. It's been used on a small scale several times without follow up - it's simple terror. See links to witnesses earlier in the thread.

2. Who says the war is going well? Russians, Iranians and Assad? I would say they stopped losing thanks to outside help/interference by the very people that said this shouldn't happen and it's more of an attrition with a few gains now.

3. Calculated risk along with Russia's word that it will stall the UN no matter what happens?

4. The item's like chemical/biological weapons are looked after by trusted people with family ties to the regime - they don't defect. Every time CW have been used, they blamed it on the rebels. The Russians verified that all stockpiles had been consolidated near the coast at Tartus, in Aliwite territory in 2011, yet now we get stories about rebels finding CW weapon stores?

#1, Yeah, and al Qaeda claimed the Americans stored nuclear weapons in Iraq during the war over there. That doesn't really make it true. Until the UN has actually verified a chemical attack, I doubt it. And so far, they haven't verified any in the past.

#2, Eh, the real world? With the help of the Iranians and Hezbollah, and opposition in-fighting, they've been pushing the opposition back for a while now.

#3, Artillery and air strikes is enough to terrorize people, without having to play "hide under the table from the Tomahawks".

#4, Of course, but to actually use them, you need a tonne of people to transport, set it up, fire, etc., not to mention the fact that regime forces were also in the area, meaning there's no way that it could all be kept "within the family" so to speak. And regardless of what Russia claimed 2 years ago, the stockpiles are spread around the country, and specifically al Qaeda groups have been trying to take control of the bases that are publicly known to store stockpiles, so it seems very likely that at least a few of all those they've managed to overrun have contained stockpiles.

There's just no point in getting involved. If we ever should have, it was 2 years ago, before the Admiral Ackbar shouters turned up. Now they're dominating the effective parts of the opposition so much we might as well start bombing both sides, if any. Beg my pardon if it offends you, but as much as I loathe the criminal Assad regime, I'll take them over a Taleban/al Qaeda Afghanistan but in Syria. That'd be way to nasty people, way to close to home.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice try there scrim but it's easily torn apart - e.g. the launch crew for the largest CW weapon, the Scud, is around 5 people. Once the warhead is placed on a missile at base there is no need for 'a tonne' of people. To launch katyusha rockets with binary warheads you need 2 - 3 people.

Many independent observers such as journalists have reported gas attacks and people suffering classic symptoms in at least 6 locations over the past year and some even returned samples. The UN can't verify anything because they were not allowed into the country. If you are innocent why bar the impartial international body that can prove your innocence? Even with the most recent attack the UN inspection was delayed for 5 days. Most of the suspected substances used dissipate within an hour, so the needless delay of 5 days looks very suspicious.

23/12/2012 - Sergei Lavrov said Russia, which reportedly has military advisers training Syria's military, has kept close watch over its chemical arsenal.

He said the Syrian government had transferred weapons from several arsenals to just "one or two centres" to properly safeguard them. Israeli officials have also said that Syrian chemical weapons were under control "at the moment".

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/201212221532021654.html

You say they put them all back afterwards? Evidence? There are 2 separate sources there confirming the same thing.

Syria: France's evidence of chemical weapons use increases with 14 samples (June 2013 - can't link cos of images of dead bodies, search - many links to it.)

France's evidence that the chemical nerve agent sarin has been used in the Syrian civil has dramatically increased, with 14 separate samples now having tested positive from victims. The conclusive results were taken from the blood, urine, hair and clothes of people at the site of battles between President Bashar al-Assad's regime and rebel fighters.

A first batch of results from three initial urine samples led Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, to declare earlier this month he was "in no doubt" that sarin gas had been used in Syria – at least once by the regime.

Syrian Blood Tests Positive for Sarin Gas (April 2013 - can't link cos of images of dead bodies, search - many links to it.)

The U.S. military initially tests for evidence of nerve gas exposure by looking for the presence of the enzyme cholinesterase in red blood cells and in plasma. (Sarin messes with the enzyme, which in turn allows a key neurotransmitter to build up in the body, causing rather awful muscle spasms.) The less cholinesterase they find, they more likely there was a nerve gas hit.

The problem is, some pesticides will also depress cholinesterase. So the military employs a second — and sometimes a third — test.

When sarin binds to cholinesterase it loses a fluoride. The pesticides don’t do this. This second test exposes a blood sample to fluoride ions, which partially reconstitutes sarin if it’s there. If that doesn’t work, military technicians can run a third test — considered the gold standard — which isolates from the plasma one form of cholinesterase, and then uses the enzyme pepsin the chew up the cholinesterase into smaller pieces. Sarin binds to some of the these smaller chunks, and liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry should be able to detect it if it’s there up. “You would be sure it’s a nerve agent and not a pesticide,†says a scientist who works with such tests, which are reliable for two to three week after exposure.

Preliminary blood samples are drawn from a pricked finger tip, and placed a field blood analyzer — a gizmo about the size of a scientific calculator that produces varying shades of yellow depending on the cholinesterase level. If the tests are positive, it’s best to tap a vein and draw more blood into a 10 milliliter tube so you can run the more sophisticated exams.

According to the Financial Times, one blood sample was analyzed by American analysts, while the other was examined by Britain’s Defence Science Technology Laboratory.

Exactly when the results came back isn’t clear. But only days ago, the Obama administration was throwing cold water on reports from Israeli and British officials of chemical weapon use in Syria. (“We have not come to the conclusion that there has been that use,†White House spokesman Jay Carney said on Tuesday.) But that changed Thursday morning, when the White House issued a letter (.pdf) to Senators Carl Levin and John McCain confirming the sarin discovery.

Edited by Mattar_Tharkari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you are innocent why bar the impartial international body that can prove your innocence?

They wont be proving that anyway, they can only test for what it was and if it was, or if done sooner that is was and what it was ... nothing to do with who, plus its a warzone and nothing as simple as dragging them in to say "look its wasn't us" .. because they cant prove or disprove it was or wasn't them either way, but that's just a side issue funny enough.

Mind you as it stands it matters not, the deciding factors are in the bag and brace for the ripple effects over the coming days/weeks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23875121

Personally I just think of the people stuck in the middle of this bitch slapping contest between the worlds many arseholes & moral high-ground merchants no one wins a prize out of this one on the ground trying to live some kind of life, a perfect can of worms of which to milk from.

Sarin, so where can that be made and is that proof assad created & launched this?

Edited by mrcash2009
225

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sarin unfortunately is one of the easier produceable chemical weapons, especially in in impure form like that Japanese AS sect shown in Tokyo metro attack...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sarin unfortunately is one of the easier produceable chemical weapons, especially in in impure form like that Japanese AS sect shown in Tokyo metro attack...

True but this one hardly killed 12 people, partly because the use of the gas is complex as being said earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

None of the 'Assad did it' version supporters gave an explaination of why Assad would do the thing which is the shortest way to foreign intervention and loosing the power.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you want an accurate breakdown of weapons supplies there is a good one here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22906965

The Russians have supplied advanced weapons to Assad's forces, Iran is suppling rockets, anti-tank missiles, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars despite UN sanctions imposed on its arms exports. Breaking international law seems to be habitual among this small group of nations, yet they choose to hide behind it when it suits?:

It's interesting to note that all Syria's neighbours, except Israel, are supplying or facilitating the delivery of conventional weapons, medical supplies and NBC protection to the rebels? Perhaps they know something about the Assad regime that the very wise and learned members of this forum do not wish to know ;).

Oh don't forget that the western governments have been doing the same. The rebels received hundreds of tonns of weapons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps rebels are supplied with NBC protection stuff to prevent casualties while using CW against gov forces and in such false flag operations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sarin unfortunately is one of the easier produceable chemical weapons, especially in in impure form like that Japanese AS sect shown in Tokyo metro attack...

Firstly you don't make Sarin - you make a precursor, Methylphosphonyl difluoride and then add it to another chemical. I think the use of the word easier is rather misleading, it's not something you could do easily. You require a number of highly toxic, uncommon chemicals in large quantities, special equipment, protective clothing, breathing aparatus and a sealed room or remote location and decontamination. The 1st stage - making phosphorus trichloride - could killI, it's fatal at only 600ppm. The process requires a number of complex reactions over several stages and the removal of impurities, time and much patience. You also have to have the means and the knowledge to test each stage to make sure you actually got the product you wanted.

It's not something you can produce in your kitchen in an open beaker and it's not a simple matter of mixing several things togther and giving it a shake. You need sealed equipment, pumps, a method of refluxing, a condenser, heat and a safe means to transfer and decant the chemicals and products into storage without killing yourself and everyone in the surrounding area. Then you have to somehow move and dispose of the waste you produce - there would be as much of that as the final product and it is nearly as toxic. Aum Shinrikyo struggled for a long time to produce a few litres and only managed to kill 8 and injure several hundred in an enclosed space. The attack in Syria killed hundreds in the open air, that means they had sufficient quantities, a reasonably pure product and an effective means of delivery. I doubt someone could come up with that in the middle of a war, it's very unlikely.

Oh don't forget that the western governments have been doing the same. The rebels received hundreds of tonns of weapons.

Yeah that's what it says, it's a breakdown of suppliers for both sides...... Thanks for taking the time to read it ROFL. :banghead:

Edited by Mattar_Tharkari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I doubt someone could come up with that in the middle of a war, it's very unlikely.

Well whomever did and we dont know who, still.

Edited by mrcash2009

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mattar, what about lack of any protection stuff on those who were near the dead bodies? Why the dead don't have any evidences of been killed by CW? Is it some miraclous gas that kills one person but does not harm another who contacts with the dead and walks at contaminated area freely without any protection?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That point was highlighted on a news report about the grade & quality of this gas based on those unaffected while helping and is a good one, not that it will sway any opinion on what happens next though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Mattar, what about lack of any protection stuff on those who were near the dead bodies? Why the dead don't have any evidences of been killed by CW? Is it some miraclous gas that kills one person but does not harm another who contacts with the dead and walks at contaminated area freely without any protection?

That's the whole point of sarin, it's useful because it dissipates quickly, half hour to 1 hour. You can gas an area then move in troops safely afterwards. The dead do have all the signs of being killed by CW and samples taken in previous attacks have tested positive. People who helped the injured were affected, blurred vision etc but not killed. You require a certain dose to kill, below that it affects breathing and vision, so your enemy is less effective and easier to kill.

Well whomever did and we dont know who, still.

Who controls the existing CW as verified by the Russians and Israelis? Assad's Army is the one with the existing capability. No one can demonstrate or has any evidence as to how the rebels obtained CW. So what's most likely?

Edited by Mattar_Tharkari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Who controls the existing CW as verified by the Russians and Israelis? Assad's Army is the one with the existing capability. No one can demonstrate or has any evidence as to how the rebels obtained CW. So what's most likely?

Thats the point, its not facts so the "most likely" is the answer as proof. None of us are on the ground so none know 100 percent it was (not that it matters anymore anyway clearly). I love the smell of destabalisation in the mornings.

Edited by mrcash2009

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nice try there scrim but it's easily torn apart - e.g. the launch crew for the largest CW weapon, the Scud, is around 5 people. Once the warhead is placed on a missile at base there is no need for 'a tonne' of people.

One of the largest cheap shots so far. You're essentially isolating a long series of events to the single one in which the least amount of personnel is required, and then claims that's all the personnel needed. Yeah, a Scud can be operated by a crew of 5, but the events leading up to it being operated in the field requires a lot more. Arming it with a chemical warhead, scouting for locations suitable for a chemical attack, the large security detachment you'd have to send along to protect it in a civil war, and note to mention the hundreds, if not thousands of regime soldiers in the area who'd have to be warned in advance to avoid fratricide (gas sure isn't accurate) and the rest of the entire infrastructure behind the launchers of the gas alone takes the number up into the thousands.

And yeah, the Russian government would never ever lie about anything, because that would be totally dishonest. Just like how nothing can change in two years for any reason what-so-ever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rebels firing Sarin shells?

G5Tnh4C78Eo

This has been floating around for a few days of its upload, whats interesting is the verification of this and if mainstream would even touch it for reference. I post this not to prove anything becuase it needs verification obviously of place and time and just like anything else, but ref the thread if people didn't see it hence "?". Not sure about the music on it though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now

×