Oil Prices set to tumble.

[walker 0]

Hi all

This is a game changer:

Brazil's Oil Reserves Believed to Be Close to 30 Billion Barrels

2011 - February 2011

Written by Newsroom

Monday, 21 February 2011 03:47

Brazil's National Oil Association (ANP), the country's oil regulator announced that proven Brazilian oil reserves rose 10.65% in 2010 to nearly 14.25 billion barrels, the biggest annual increase in the past eight years. Total reserves, overwhelmingly offshore, which also include probable and possible reserves, soared 34.57% to 28.47 billion barrels.

ANP also indicated that proven natural gas reserves increased 15.23%, ending 2010 at 423 billion cubic meters.

The new figures include initial production at the ultra-deep Lula and Cernambi fields, the first to be developed in Brazil's promising offshore, pre-salt frontier, so-named because it is located deep below the ocean floor under a shifting layer of salt...

http://www.brazzilmag.com/component/content/article/95-february-2011/12515-brazils-oil-reserves-believed-to-be-close-to-30-billion-barrels.html

As allways follow the link to the original article in full.

Could not happen to a nicer country. It will help reduce the poverty there and paying for the Olympics should no longer be an issue.

Kind Regards walker

Edited February 21, 2011 by walker

[soul_assassin 1723]

man, there needs to be a special section for you on these forums

[froggyluv 2130]

LOL, last nite I saw a report that oil prices continue to climb in the US despite "oversupply".

Some how, those guys find a way to screw us regardless of supply :p

[walker 0]

Hi Soul_Assassin

I have some news search programs is all, mostly just down to knowing how to write an appropriate boolean search string. Nothing special.

Getting back to this article along with the recent announcement that the proven reserves in Venezuela exceed those in Saudi Arabia, which is sour oil anyway, and the recent announcement that Saudi Arabia has already passed peak oil it seems the oil focus has moved away from the Gulf.

It may also be part of the cause of the recent unrest in the Middle East along with certain doccuments...

Kind Regards walker

[PuFu 4591]

man, there needs to be a special section for you on these forums

indeed, the lad needs to have a place to spill all his thoughts, even if that place is a gaming forum..

walker, why don't you blog all this? At least that wasy you'll be able to post whatever your heart desires, without having dem evil moderator :rolleyes: lock every single one of it..

[walker 0]

Hi PuFu

Moderators lock what disobeys the forum rules or what may cause the company legal pain. Do I really have to point out that it was I who pointed out said legal concerns?

That I am a member of the awkward squad is not something I have ever hidden. I post what I think I should in all honour and truth.

I have long been a member of the awkward squad. I am not some hero though, I have had friends who have been killed as they stepped off a plane in their home country and many, many others who have been tortured and imprisoned for what they believe in or just because their face did not fit, but I try to obey the laws of the land I live in.

Lately I have done less of this as I am looking after ill members of my family and in truth I long to get back to it. But if all I can do is post on forums then needs must. I try my best to state what I see, whether it puts me in a bad light with some or not.

I like the community here, although many of the senior members visit less often lately it has always been reasonably mature and generally you are free to comment as you will. I guess with so many who actually fight for freedom they take exception to those who would stifle it.

Kind Regards walker

Edited February 21, 2011 by walker

[Tankbuster 1733]

I have long been a member of the awkward squad.

That's your name for it.

[abs 2]

Can the Awkward Squad and the Rebl Men have a deathmatch one of these days?

Abs

[-FHA-Dynamo 0]

Could not happen to a nicer country. It will help reduce the poverty there and paying for the Olympics should no longer be an issue.

Kind Regards walker

don't count on it. the politicians and state officials fingers are super sticky, they'll have their arms in this shoulder deep. the general public will be lucky to see anything out of this.

i was born and raised over there, and have no plans to ever set foot there again. i guess living in Canada has spoiled me, where our politicians sole ambition isn't corruption, and how to get rich off the working mans back.

[mosh 0]

as oil prices rise...

[Beagle 684]

The "market" always finds a "reason" for rising oil prices.

[Hans Ludwig 0]

Is Walker an actual gamer?

[Pyronick 21]

He does have a keen political insight.

[-DirTyDeeDs--Ziggy- 0]

Can the Awkward Squad and the Rebl Men have a deathmatch one of these days?

Abs

it will be officiated by free masons, and take place at Area 51... :D

[Baff1 0]

Increased demand in emerging economies far outwieghs any increased sources of supply.

Oil prices will continue to rise.

Especially in the light of middle eastern unrest.

However as the prices rise. More oil sources will become profitable to exploit.

[Beagle 684]

Its funny to see that the per head oil comsumption and the price per Barrel balance themselfs quite out over the years, at least in countries with large taxes on oil based fuels, and thats where we see rising or falling oil prices first..at the gas station.

My first car had a consumption of 12L/100km price for 1L 95 Octane fuel was 0,66 Euro (it was 1,29DM actually, there was no € in 1992)

Today I own a car that needs a average of 4.5L for 100Km and 1L 95 Octane fuel scost 1.56€

The money I have to spend for mobility is still the same basically 19 years later...not a catastrophic progression at all, but were close to the end of what can be done with improving combustion engine efficiency at the current fixed retail price for small cars around the 10.000€ price tag.

Currently we can only hope that Indian and Chinese customers don't cal for more 6,8,or 12 Cylinder cars as they currently do...and looking at the Audi, BMW and Mercedes sales in China in 2010 there is a market there for this kind of cars.

Edited February 28, 2011 by Beagle

[walker 0]

Hi all

That the Oil companies use every excuse in the world to hike up gas prices is a given. Never the less we have sufficient oil for our short term needs while fossil fuel is replaced as a the worlds energy source. The oil companies can see their future is bleak same as anyone, so they hike up the prices while they can.

The best replacement for fossil fuel is Wind. The Chinese realise this and are investing in it heavily 41.8 gigawatts was produced last year and from a standing start in 2007 they are now producing 5% of electricity by wind power. That is on an exponential build up which continued means China will be producing 35% of its energy needs using wind power by 2020 and be energy independent by 2030. The biggest driver to this has been profits. A wind farm is more or less a license to print money.

In terms of wind generators China is stealing a lead over the west.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5FM8d6Wc_GQ

Goldwinds HK IPO netted nearly a billion

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/10/02/us-goldwind-pricing-idUSTRE6910H220101002

America is complaining that China is taking over the wind turbine industry and dumping cheap turbines on the market, so what I say is, that is Capitalism.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-12-23/obama-s-china-wind-power-complaint-backed-by-companies.html

As to having a transportable fuel and a wind energy storage capability, using excess wind energy at night to crack sea water and produce Hydrogen is where we are all going.

Hydrogen can already power both existing internal combustion engines with just a slight alteration in the carburetor; and more efficiently power the new breed of hydrogen fuel cell electric engines. Electric cars acceleration far in excess of the inefficient combustion engine and range capabilities that beggar belief. A Toyota Rav based concept test car using a hydrogen powered Tesla electric motor drove from Alaska to California on just one tank of Hydrogen gas!

Toyota who have done a deal with Tesla for the motors will introduce their first hydrogen fuel cell cars in 2013 with 100 released to government agencies followed by the first production car in 2015 with a proposed early adopter price of $50,000 dollars. Other car companies are making similar plans and Honda are already offering the FCX Clarity, an all electric car on lease for lease at 600 dollars per month for 3 years, with Hydrogen available as a fuel option using a home fueling station!

http://automobiles.honda.com/fcx-clarity/

When you consider those strategic factors you can perhaps see why the value of oil is a bubble fit to burst.

Kind Regards walker

Edited February 28, 2011 by walker

[Baff1 0]

LMAO @ wind.

Twice last year for a period of one month each, there was no wind.

So you still have to run the coal stations just in case.

Saving you precisely zero pence. Why not just pay for the single coal station?

When they make wind generation that is commercially viable, that is the time to adopt it.

If China is mass producing them. Good.

When they make them cheap enough to use profitably, we should buy them.

There is of course in my mind a valid argument for the use of wind power as energy security. In case of another World War scenario.

You talk about bubbles, but wind power is the biggest bubble of all. It only exists throgh government subsidy and all the governments have gone broke.

I'll stick with my oil shares. It's going to be another bumper year.

Edited February 28, 2011 by Baff1

[Hans Ludwig 0]

The Oil-Price Bubble

"There are many factors behind the sharp increase in the oil price, but one is usually overlooked: it's a bubble. Where bubbles appear in the market (think of housing and tech stocks, to name two in recent memory), you will find the hidden hand of monetary policy at work. This is an underlying issue that helps explain the price. Recognizing this also helps us make a better judgment concerning the future of the oil price as it relates to overall economic well-being."

Continued...

http://mises.org/daily/2999

[hellfire257 3]

Its an interesting path. The problem of global energy is only a fraction of what it will become in the next few decades. There are plenty of options open to us, its just that every path faces stiff opposition.

To me, it seems that people are unwilling to invest fully in alternative fuels. Hydrogen is certainly an interesting concept and I believe its potential will be discovered after it is passed onto the consumer fully. With regard to electricity production its a different problem entirely.

Personally, I think Nuclear power is the best interim solution until a transfer to more environmentally friendly or more efficient methods is made. The energy density of nuclear fuel is massive and it has the potential to provide immense amounts of power very efficiently. However, you must also consider the arguably substantial risks of Nuclear power.

Wind power, despite it being able to provide fair amounts of energy, is still inefficient when looked at in terms of its space requirements to generate a comparative amount of energy to a conventional power station. This coupled with the fact that it is by no means a fully reliable source, makes it nothing more than a secondary solution to a much larger problem.

Oil, and the growing lack of it, is causing substantial problems by inhibiting the transition from fossil fuels. Mainly through greed. Not much we can do about that, however.

Edited February 28, 2011 by Hellfire257

[walker 0]

...I'll stick with my oil shares. It's going to be another bumper year.

Hi Baff1

Like I said it is bubble just like the housing bubble, it is a bubble based on an industry that knows its time is up and is about to become extinct. You can tell that by how much the big Oil companies are talking up their shares while their directors are busy shifting into green energy. They are selling at the top of the bubble, just like the banks did to housing in 2007. You would do well to follow them. I am sure that just like with the mortgage backed securities bubble there will be plenty of idiots around who think this market can only get bigger.

If you want a sure fire bet to replace those shares you need to work out which of these will be chosen as the hydrogen carrying system.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_storage

Hint there will be a short term and long term solution.

Of course you can also make a killing by Shorting Oil futures.

http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-02/commodities-etfs-achilles-heel.aspx?storyid=58448

Despite being a new production technology hydrogen is already cheaper to produce than petrol. As more and more excess wind capacity comes on line the cost will inevitably decrease.

If you are a farmer especialy in Lincoln then a wind farm is a great cash crop. That said I think most wind farms are going to be deep sea and used to crack seawater and produce Hydrogen.

Kind Regards walker

Edited February 28, 2011 by walker

[Baff1 0]

I'm English. The housing bubble, turned out not to be a bubble at all. Demand still outstrips supply. We have had a few million extra citizens over the last few years. All my houses are worth more than ever.

I'm currently making a tidy sum on oil.

Tobacco is my current big winner. It's the same with tobacco as it with oil, it might be politically incorrect in my country, but the developing markets are absolutely lapping it up. Bless them!

I have no intrest at all in investing any of my life savings in Hydrogen production.

Wind power, it should be noted is raising the cost of Hydrogen not reducing it.

Wind power = bloody expensive electricity.

If you want cheap Hydrogen your best bet is coal and gas powered generation.

Renewables, typically cost 4 times as much to produce as ye olde leccy.

And comically, you still need to keep all the ye olde leccy generators online at the same time (and cost) anyway.

It's a piss poor joke.

No wonder our government went broke.

Edited February 28, 2011 by Baff1

[AnimalMother92 10]

Can the Awkward Squad and the Rebl Men have a deathmatch one of these days?

Abs

-Ziggy-;1863292']it will be officiated by free masons' date=' and take place at Area 51... :D[/quote']

I'm in, though I doubt the massacre will be much fun to watch :rolleyes:

[walker 0]

Hi Baff1

Your constant harping on about wind gets subsidised is a load of bollocks and you know it.

...The Myth: “Wind power is highly subsidisedâ€

The Facts: Wind power… operates in a subsidised energy market

•In the past, no electricity generating technology has been developed, introduced and become competitive without initial support. One reason is that many local or national governments either wholly or partially owned energy companies. This state backing has not been clearly documented, so it is not easy to accurately assess the financial support for well-established industries such as oil, natural gas and nuclear power during their development phase.

•In 2004, the European Environment Agency assessed direct and indirect energy subsidies by EU member states and the EU Institutions across the EU 15. The report estimated that total subsidies in 2001 were €29.2 billion, of which €23.9 billion was for fossil fuels and nuclear and €5.3 billion for renewables. The fossil fuel sector - coal, oil and gas - receives three-quarters of all energy subsidies, primarily through the direct state aid given to the coal sector and preferential tax rates for gas and oil exploration. These financial incentives include tax deductions, loan guarantees, liability insurance and support for research and development. In Germany, coal mining absorbs almost 30 of all subsidies for trade and industry, receiving about €100 billion since 1980.

•Worldwide, according to the United Nations, conventional energy sources receive n estimated $250-300 billion in subsidies per year. In the United States, for example, the federal government as paid out $35 billion over 30 years to cover the medical expenses of miners suffering from “black lung diseaseâ€. Such distortions mean that the true cost of “conventional†energy sources is not reflected in their market price...

http://www.wind-energy-the-facts.org/en/mythology.html

My use of bold in the text for emphasis

As allways follow the link to the source article in full

A comparison table of the real cost per kilowatt hour of different energy sources is available here.

http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Cents_Per_Kilowatt-Hour

Note that the costs of wind production are already equal to the cost even the cheapest fossil fuel.

And bare in mind that Wind Power source energy has those start up costs included there. In other words generation costs for other power sources have been covered by historical payments.

What this means is that Wind Power will keep getting cheaper while Fossil Fuel cost will stay the same and then as supply disappears they will start to rise. You may have noticed your fossil fuel prices rising perhaps?

The costs of fossil fuel will continue to rise while their market share will inevitably decline. Fossil fuel power generation will disappear as fast we can replace their production with wind generators. Despite regular market manipulations by OPEC to alter supply and stories to argue for other reasons for increased price, they will all only hasten the decline of fossil fuel as an energy source; as they only highlight the dangers of fossil fuel dependence in terms of energy security and increase the price differential between the cost fossil fuel generation compared to wind power.

Your fossil fuel shares have a life span reflecting that. Ever thought you might have bought a pig in a poke? :D

Kind Regards walker

Edited February 28, 2011 by walker

[Baff1 0]

Hi Baff1

Your constant harping on about wind gets subsidised is a load of bollocks and you know it.

http://www.wind-energy-the-facts.org/en/mythology.html

My use of bold in the text for emphasis

As allways follow the link to the source article in full

A comparison table of the real cost per kilowatt hour of different energy sources is available here.

http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Cents_Per_Kilowatt-Hour

Note that the costs of wind production are already equal to the cost even the cheapest fossil fuel.

And bare in mind that Wind Power source energy has those start up costs included there. In other words generation costs for other power sources have been covered by historical payments.

What this means is that Wind Power will keep getting cheaper while Fossil Fuel cost will stay the same and then as supply disappears they will start to rise. You may have noticed your fossil fuel prices rising perhaps?

The costs of fossil fuel will continue to rise while their market share will inevitably decline. Fossil fuel power generation will disappear as fast we can replace their production with wind generators. Despite regular market manipulations by OPEC to alter supply and stories to argue for other reasons for increased price, they will all only hasten the decline of fossil fuel as an energy source; as they only highlight the dangers of fossil fuel dependence in terms of energy security and increase the price differential between the cost fossil fuel generation compared to wind power.

Your fossil fuel shares have a life span reflecting that. Ever thought you might have bought a pig in a poke? :D

Kind Regards walker

My fossil fuel shares pay me 4 times a year.

How much do your wind power shares pay you?

Answer, nothing. No one invests in wind power.

Generation costs for electricity typically include the price of building the plant. That's how we calculate it. By how much it costs in total. All in.

As with wind farms this will vary a lot depending on when the generators were built, where it is cited, the current price of fuel.

Firstly, read your own webpage before posting please. According to your sources, gas and coal are both cheaper than windpower. . It's just good manners.

Secondly, avoid idiot hippy conspiracy sites completely.

Here is what Wiki has to say.

In March 2010, a new report on UK levelised generation costs was published by Parsons Brinckerhoff.[11] It puts a range on each cost due to various uncertainties. Combined cycle gas turbines without CO2 capture are not directly comparable to the other low carbon emission generation technologies in the PB study. The assumptions used in this study are given in the report.

Technology Cost range (£/MWh)

New nuclear 55-85

Onshore wind 80-110

Biomass 60-120

Natural gas turbines with CO2 capture 60-130

Coal with CO2 capture 100-155

Solar farms 125-180

Offshore wind 150-210

Natural gas turbine, no CO2 capture 55-110

Tidal power 155-390

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#cite_note-11

Bear in mind that this is a prediction of costs of new and future electricity generation rather than a reflection of actual energy generation today.

I suggest you look at more comparisons.

I suggest you look at a broad variety of sources from a broad variety of countries so that you can get an overview and not a single politised one, which is always a danger on this subject matter.

Not just gas prices but more importantly coal and even nuclear, although nuclear is also not cheap.

Once again, no one is willing to invest in nuclear power for the same reason they won't in wind. It's too expensive. The government has been offering lisences for 20 years without a single taker. Windpower gets investment now, but only if it is contractually subsidised.

The problem with a contractual subsidy form the government is that a 30 year contract isn't worth spit to me coming from a person who will lose his authority within 4 years.

Otherwise I would have built one for myself already.

Hydro is another one that varies wildly from region to region due to the cost of building.

I also suggest you concentrate less on what the makers of wind turbines predict their next generation of wind turbine might produce in the future and more on what they actually do produce. Right now. Today.

Fantasy sales pitches don't impress me much.

When they make new wind farms that are actually cheaper and cheaper then I might invest in them. Until that day, I will not, obviously.

Wind power is subsidised.

Wind farm subsidies top £1 billion a year

Britain's energy policy faces new controversy as it can be revealed that electricity customers are paying more than £1 billion a year to subsidise windfarms and other forms of renewable energy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/7061552/Wind-farm-subsidies-top-1-billion-a-year.html

I can't believe you didn't know this.

Please note that according to your own linked website wind power needs all the other fossil fuel plants to be taxed before it can compete on "a level playing field" ROFLLMAO.

Finally and most importantly of all, and the one you keep failing to address, since wind power generates an inconsistent supply, there is one more additional cost you forgot to factor in.

I have to leave the coal power station running anyway. So the cost of wind power = enormous, since I have to double generate the energy to guarentee supply.

The coal station still has to be built anyway. It still has to be kept fueled and running.

Wind generation is not an alternative supply, it is an additional supply.

Thanks a lot Tony Blair. What a dick.

For smart wind generation you need some kind of battery system to store the energy. To provide a constant supply.

Portugal has the answers. Their wind generators, when there is wind, pump the water back up to the dam reservoir, so that it may flow down again and continue to steadily turn the dam's hydro generators.

Sticking half a zillion wind turbines out in the ocean may get you the green vote, but buying that vote isn't cheap. If you paid your own electricity bill of course, you would have already noticed this.

Note well that far from reducing the overall price of electricity in this country, it has doubled since the widespread introduction of windfarms here.

Edited March 1, 2011 by Baff1